Hotel California

Brexit is set to be delayed until Hallowe’en after EU leaders imposed a six-month Article 50 extension on Theresa May.

Can they even do that?

Anyway, fuck ’em.

Finally, what do they hope the deal will be after delay? There’s still no agreement om what we’ll put up with, is there?

58 thoughts on “Hotel California”

  1. I hope the traitorous cow and her party are utterly destroyed in the local elections. Even a Corbyn government would be better than this.

  2. I dunno Julia, TM is a perfectly useless leader but Corbo is on a par with Trump in terms of entrenching divisions in opinion. At least we can all hate TM equally.

    I agree with Tim, though, can’t imagine how a delay is going to translate to a solution (deal or no deal) that has the backing of Parliament and won’t be rejected by the EU. If anything, the faffing around would make the EU feel more confident in insisting on the backstop in any deal, since Parliament is trying so hard to avoid crashing out.

  3. Niels, of course it’s not going to translate into a solution. There’s exactly the wrong amount of time for a solution – long enough to seriously wind up the hard brexiteers, not enough for the May/Barnier plan or anything else. That;s the point. Whatever else it is, you have to admit it’s a masterful piece of political trolling by the EU.

  4. If the opportunity is taken to cull sufficient remaniac MPs, we might be able to get no deal voted through parliament.

  5. JuliaM – Agreed. I dunno about the locals tho, I reckon they’ll lose bigly but within the normal range of unpopular governing parties, so will take the wrong conclusion that they can somehow brazen it out.

    Then they’ll get squashed in the Euros and Jezbollah will beat them handily in the GE that’s (surely?) just around the corner.

    Wot we’ve learned from Brexit is that the Conservative Party exists to disenfranchise people on the Right, is beyond redemption and needs to be dealt with the way a wasp’s nest in your attic would be. And we need a commemorative 50p coin with the reminder “Never Trust A Tory”.

  6. JuliaM,

    I’ve offered the local UKIP branch some help. One of them is a bit unhinged, but I don’t expect UKIP to get elected. I just want to get more UKIP votes than the Labour majority. The message being that we’ll destroy majorities everywhere if MPs don’t do a good deal.

    Also, frankly, it’s payback time for these fucking liars.

  7. The willingness that the EU Kommissars now show only demonstrates their eagerness to save us from leaving. I believe that eagerness was always there.
    As someone who has done deals (mostly successfully) throughout my life, I always found it utterly infuriating that this “bloody difficult woman” didn’t go to the EU in the first place and say, “Right lads, this is what we want, sort it out and let us know when you can put something to us that we find agreeable. If not, then-see you”. Simple mechanics of ANY deal.
    Spineless, useless, prevaricating, mendacious bastards.

  8. Steve,

    Yeah. Never voting Tory until there’s a proper clean out. That means annihilating the Old Boy Network Tories. It means local, democratic parties. If they can transform themselves into the party of Cash, Carswell, Raab and Truss, the party of national aspiration and limited government, they’ll get my vote.

    But I’m not staying a member in the forlorn hope of that happening.

  9. “Good point, KJ. Six months is about November 5th. We loons can burn you traitors. Sounds fun. For us.”

    Not only a loon but a deluded loon.

  10. I haven’t seen much comment on the Government’s plan for No Deal, announced shortly before the 29th March. I thought rather good, so assume I’m missing something. It was, in short:

    a) Tariffs to be removed on some goods. Tariff-free imports to the UK would rise from 80% to 87%.
    b) Tariff-free from the EU would fall from 100% to 92%.
    c) Remaining tariffs would mainly apply to agriculture.
    d) Ireland: too complicated, too much history, and yet immaterial in value. Therefore there would be no checks on the Irish border, and no tariffs.

    The Irish solution was of questionable legality under WTO rules, but would hold for at least a year, even if someone complained. And the UK would probably have won the case.

    The rest seemed like just enough to get EU producers to demand free trade.

    It seemed a fine plan to me, especially regarding Ireland. What am I missing?

  11. >we might be able to get no deal voted through parliament.

    We don’t need to get No Deal through Parliament. We just need a PM who doesn’t ask for another extension (or who tells the EU that we’re out).

    (The Cooper/Letwin vote didn’t prevent No Deal, it just forced May to ask for an extension at that point, but it ddin’t force her to accept whatever the EU came up with.)

  12. KJ–Another 6 months for remainiac shite like you to suck EU dick.

    Meanwhile time to get on with the destruction of ZaNu and BlyLabour.,

  13. BoM4 – Yarp. I’d love Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party to ride again, but can’t see any realistic chance of that. The rot is too deep. It’d take a massive deselection effort by local associations to even make a dent, and I’m not sure the Conservative brand is worth fighting over.

    I wonder if they’ll still be describing WTO Leave as a “cliff edge” after more than 3 years of preparation.

  14. @Steve “…needs to be dealt with the way a wasp’s nest in your attic would be.”

    I had one of those last year.

    Luckily the entrance/exit was a gap in the guttering I could get to, so a carton of wasp powder was dumped in the entrance late at night. Did the trick although it took about five days before I stopped seeing any.

    Curiously, dying wasps appeared crawling around in the kitchen, two floors below, but nowhere else inside the house.

    A full two days after I dust-panned and brushed what I thought was a dead wasp into the kitchen bin, it was still crawling around in there.

    Which shows just how difficult they are to kill.

  15. The European elections, if all goes as the polls suggest, will be won handily by parties favouring customs union and /or a second referendum. Not because these options are far ahead in the polls themselves but because leavers have lost motivation to turn out (and the Farage vs UKIP split could cost a lot of eurosceptic seats).

    Pro remain MPs are likely to take that result as democratic endorsement of remaining or a second referendum.

    There likely is a majority in the Commons for either customs union or second ref or both, if circumstances were favourable – some softer Tories need an excuse to break cover for it (don’t want to get deselected so shouldn’t appear too keen to remain to their local association) and hardline “revoke without a ref” types need to feel confident remain would win a referendum. But in principle there’s a majority to be constructed.

    There simply isn’t a majority available for May’s Deal in unreconstructed form, nor would a No Deal government retain the confidence of the House – if any government tried to pivot towards that then it would simply suffer MP defections and be no confidenced.

    A fresh general election might put a different set of majorities into play but too many leave voters are demotivated for this to end up a good thing for Brexiteers, I fear.

  16. The mistake Cameron started and May has continued is that they tried to get the left to like them, to explain their policies and apologise for anything that needed doing that the left didn’t like and to compromise and water down their policies in the hope that the left would agree with them.

    You can’t argue with Socialists. You can’t debate with them. You can’t get them to change their minds.

  17. Whole heartedly agree with Mr Wilkinson on the negotiating strategy. The opening position was that the EU wanted the UK to stay in because they’d already blown their own negotiating strength by cheering so loudly for the Remain camp in the Referendum. The UK therefore was holding all the high cards. Negotiating should have been the UK extracting all the concessions it wanted in return for offering to limit the damage leaving would do the EU interests. They fail to submit. UK walks out without a deal. Same as going to a dealer to buy a car. You know the dealer wants to sell. The question is how hard you can screw him on price. He knows you don’t have to buy.
    If you give the UK the benefit of the doubt, that they were actually involved in negotiating a deal rather than the whole thing was theatre, they started from the position of; how little of Leave can we get by with? Put the EU firmly in the driving seat. Like going to a dealer to sell your car.

  18. Andrew – A full two days after I dust-panned and brushed what I thought was a dead wasp into the kitchen bin, it was still crawling around in there.

    Did it insist that it wasn’t leaving without a deal?

  19. Yes, AndrewC, same problem here in the U.S. Started with Nixon. He responded to the Left’s hate by trying to get them to like him. That rot in the Republicans is still there after 50 years.

    And it NEVER WORKED! The Republicans are juveniles hoping desperately the cool kids will like them. It’s a lack of maturity. Some people aren’t going to like you; get over it.

  20. MBE–Fuck the polls. Long since weaponised by leftists and remainiacs.

    As for the HoC –it would take about 2 days for a strong leader to break the fucking lot. If needs be I’d have several thousand troops/BluBottles surrounding HoTraitors waiting to move in Cromwell-style. That and the treason arrests of several hundred top remainiacs would do the job. I’d inform them that a no deal vote is on and their votes would be entered as the constituencies voted. No choice. Cause trouble, open their gob, look fucking sideways–a treason arrest. Even without conviction =3 years on remand no compo for job loss+ pension confiscated.

  21. Also–de-motivated? Fucking blazing with rage. Even tho’ you are a Brexit supporter your constant negativity needs beating out.

  22. “The Irish solution was of questionable legality under WTO rules,”

    Something I read sometime last year, but now can’t find, suggested that the no hard border solution for NI and the Republic, would blow the legal basis for $EU_Thingy straight out of the water, under WTO rules, the moment any goods crossed it.

    Hence, lots of wibble about the GFA to disguise the fact.

    Unfortunately, I can’t remember whether $EU_Thingy was any external trade deal the EU was signatory to, or the customs union itself. Or anything else for that matter.

    The author didn’t appear to be obviously bonkers.

  23. Andrew C,

    But these are their instincts. These aren’t libertarians sucking up to the lefties. These people want large government. They want the government interfering and “improving” people’s lives.

    I spent years thinking that they’d just got their “detoxification” thing wrong. That not splurging money on the state was a misunderstanding of what put people off the Tories. But the truth is that that’s what they want. They don’t even recognise spending £100bn on a train set as socialism because they’re not wearing cheap suits or a beret. Even though it is.

  24. Andrew – The mistake Cameron started and May has continued is that they tried to get the left to like them

    I reckon it’s worse than that.

    What if it wasn’t a mistake at all? I reckon Cameron and May are lefties, or, to be more accurate, metropolitan globalists.

    They are all for unaccountable transnational bureaucracies, open borders, political correctness and nanny statism. That’s why Conservative governments reliably deliver all those things.

    We assume they’re trying to con Guardianistas into voting for them, but what if it’s conservatives they’re seeking to con? Look at what they’ve achieved over the last 10 years:

    * Gay marriage
    * Squillions spent on foreign aid
    * Internet censorship
    * Supermarkets forced to hide fags and hoard plastic bags
    * Mandatory gay and tranny sex education for tots
    * The Gender Recognition Act
    * HS2
    * Green crap
    * The sabotage of Brexit

    This is an unbroken period of winning for big, politically-connected multinationals, Metropolitan liberals, rent-seeking enviromentalists and the EU – what we might call the establishment.

    What have libertarians, social conservatives, small government fans and patriotic Brits gotten out of it? Bugger all.

    Theresa May only looks like a failure when she’s judged by what the Right wants. But the Right is thoroughly despised and deliberately disenfranchised by the establishment. John Redwood probably isn’t welcome at kitchen suppers.

    It’s not, then, a mistake that May keeps delivering for the establishment while pleb voters are bought off with insincere promises.

  25. @Ecksy

    I actually find it hard to match my personal feelings and those of people I know (really fed up by the whole Brexit impasse) versus what the polls say (that on the whole it is Remainers who are riled up, whereas lots of Leavers have ended up in the “they’re never going to listen so why should I bother voting again?” camp). But to be fair, Leave won in 2016 with the help of a lot of people who wouldn’t normally vote – which is a great achievement, and I think a brilliant one for democracy, but also a tough act to repeat.

    I’m worried that if there is another referendum, probably on Deal vs Remain terms, there’s going to be a big splinter group of No-Deal Leavers who campaign for a referendum boycott because their own preference isn’t on the ballot.

    I’ll be absolutely bloody livid if that’s what ends up keeping us in the EU.

  26. “Even a Corbyn government would be better than this”

    I’m not so sure, Julia – I remember the 70’s and fear that Corbyn & crew would be even worse. My real worry is that it would probably take a full parliamentary term for people to realise just how much damage that would do, followed by another 5 years (assuming a decent successor to the current Tory shambles) to put it right. On the other hand, a properly managed “No Deal” would mean a couple of years of disruption, at most.

  27. I’m worried that if there is another referendum, probably on Deal vs Remain terms, there’s going to be a big splinter group of No-Deal Leavers who campaign for a referendum boycott because their own preference isn’t on the ballot.

    If, by Deal, you mean May’s pile of shite, of course we’ll spoil the ballot paper. And hopefully the number of spoilt ballots makes it obvious that that referendum is a fraud. Because that’s the classic Do you want to “Stay” versus “Not leave” question?

    I’ll be absolutely bloody livid if that’s what ends up keeping us in the EU.

    Why? May’s deal is at least as bad as Remaining, it’s not really “leaving”.

  28. @Dave Ward

    Probably about right on the timings, maybe even worse. Things can look good at the start of socialism just as someone’s lifestyle can look great if they take out loans and max out their credit cards.

    It inevitably implodes but if the implosion is delayed it might creep them past a second election. Of course, the longer the delay, the worse the implosion when it happens. And if it were to happen in year 6, with 4 more years of Corbyn et al in charge and trying to sort it out, we’d be really, really fucked economically.

  29. Look on the bright side, it’s another six months in which things can go wrong in the EU. Italy in recession? Mass protests in France? Germany stagnant? Maybe Italian banks will crash? Maybe Deutsche Bank share value reaches zero? Or maybe something no-one has predicted like the 2008 crash.

  30. We need to start compulsory euthanasing remainers. KJ and Anna Soubry can be tied together and given ‘happy pills’. It is the only way to ensure that democracy is the winner.

  31. @Pat “Or maybe something no-one has predicted like the 2008 crash.”

    I’m sure Spud predicted it.

    He told us in 2010.

    If something happens this year, he’ll tell us in 2021 that he predicted it.

  32. @PF

    “Why? May’s deal is at least as bad as Remaining, it’s not really “leaving”.”

    Only a small proportion will spoil the ballot papers, far more will simply not turn up to vote for what they see as a non-leaving leave.

    Then “full-on remain” wins comfortably, trebles around for the EU-phile classes, and the idea that Britain could/should/even ever truly wanted to leave the EU will dissipate back to the electoral fringes for another couple of decades. Re-run in 2040, maybe?

    Given two options, I think the best thing is to keep taking the leaviest thing available on the table at the time, while doing whatever is necessary on the side to get some leavier options served up later.

    The May Deal may at least be easier to get out of, or more amenable to renegotiation later, than the EU itself.

  33. “The May Deal may at least be easier to get out of, or more amenable to renegotiation later, than the EU itself.”

    Fair enough, each to their own.

    I’m more inclined to believe that, if we do remain in as a result of some obviously fake referendum, then 1) Brexit isn’t going away, ie the sense of outrage will increase, 2) If we are in, with a vote, we are more able to cause trouble and damage to the project, than if we are in, but without a vote, and 3) I can’t see the EU evolving / integrating as some would like whilst the UK is part of the project.

    If I wasn’t being lazy, I’m sure I could get that list up to 10? Ie, something would have to give at some stage.

  34. Bloke in North Dorset

    When we’re out we want to do trade deals with who we like and that includes the EU. The daft thing is that May’s deal really is a good start:

    – Friction-less trade, no quotas or other barriers
    – We can negotiate trade deals with 3rd parties
    – We get to control immigration
    – Citizens rights sorted out (That should have been none unilaterally on day one)

    I think we’d like that sort of deal with most countries and trade blocks.

    Then she went and blew it by accepting the backstop, which under the Treaty shouldn’t even be in there because its forward looking.

    WTO rules mean that with no deal the EU has to erect the border so we should have told them to stuff the backstop.

    Anyway, this extension is the worst of all compromises for all parties:

    – Not long enough for the Tories to elect a new leader and go to the country in a GE. Even with a popular leader they’d be in trouble but maybe not as much as Labour.

    – It looks like its forcing us to hold EU elections, which is not only a waste of money but really does make us look inept – by us I mean the cretins that govern us.

    – If your in the 4th referendum camp (1975, 2016 and the people’s vote in the 2017 GE being the first 3 on this subject) you really haven’t got time

  35. @PF

    Our trouble-causing capacity would depend on our politicians. Interesting hypothetical is what would have happened if May (or even Cameron during his original “renegotiation” attempt) had gone the full de Gaulle, and threatened to basically wreck the project unless EU gave some ground to UK demands. But it seems unlikely that the British political system is set up to deliver the kind of politician who might do that as Prime Minister.

    Can’t disagree re sense of outrage but suspect it’s likely to be a minority sport. And polling suggests an accidental byproduct of the 2016 Leave win, was the creation of a stronger, more motivated pro-EU grassroots across the country whereas its support before was decidedly lukewarm. A sense of betrayal and grievance can motivate the core, but (perhaps like Welsh or Scottish independence movements) doesn’t guarantee ultimate victory. If the sense of not being listened to just results in millions of leavers abstaining from most future elections and exiting the voter pool, then their voice is likely to be diminished.

    And while I agree about the long-term future of the EU not necessarily evolving to Britain’s advantage… true, but it seems unlikely we are going to granted another referendum on treaty change or whatever. We’re going to end up sucking a lot up if we remain. Eventually something might snap – I think at the point when/if core EU countries are talking meaningfully about the whole “United States of Europe” thing, a hypothetically-remained Britain will emit a collective “oops” on reflection over its Brexit flip-flop – but I think we’re talking decades, not year, here.

    And in the meantime, all that further integration is going to be even harder to get out of than the current tangled web we’re caught up in.

    My inclination is very much “get as out as possible while we can, so we don’t end up even more entangled”. I can accept a certain lack of ideological purity for now.

  36. @BiND

    You say “It looks like its forcing us to hold EU elections, which is not only a waste of money but really does make us look inept” but also that this is the “worst of all compromises for all parties”.

    If the UK ends up failing to leave the EU then the elections are sadly a necessity.

    The EU elections do at least offer a chance for two broad parties, however. The Just Get Us Out Or We Voters Will Destroy You All camp have their one shot at getting heard before the next stage of negotiations. Something that might put pressure on both Labour and Tory leadership teams. On the other hand, there is a chance for pro-Remain or pro-Referendum groups (or those that purport to be so when convenient) to take advantage and then use this as a data point to “prove” that Britain has changed its mind.

    Polls suggest the latter group is in the ascendency and this would be very convenient for those EU politicians who want Britain to stay, and for those British politicians looking for an excuse to either abandon Brexit entirely or make it subject to a referendum. So while not an ideal compromise for anyone, holding the EU elections is still likely to benefit someone.

  37. MBE–The despondency you are peddling is beginning to wear a bit thin. You are on several blogs pushing the same line of doom.

    For the second time FUCK THE POLLS. They are run by leftist scum. Fucking remain is not growing in strength unless being a cowardly crawling cunt is growing in popularity.

  38. it seems unlikely that the British political system is set up to deliver the kind of politician who might do that as Prime Minister

    It managed to do so 40 years ago.

  39. With all deference to the many thoughtful voices arguing one way and another as to how to slice and dice and analyse how best to achieve our exit, and how best to vote, and what comes next: it’s all besides the point.

    Which is that our political elite despises us.

  40. Ecks

    Apologies for any depression caused.

    In terms of overall leave vs remain, I don’t think things have swung much from the ref. Differentials in strength of intention to vote in the polls, and therefore in turnout when the actual vote occurs, are the bugger.

  41. Lud

    Yes. And I reckon any conceivable replacement political class, the same. Even if you change the MPs, even if you changed the whole voting system, I still think the contempt would remain.

    Perhaps if you radically changed the government system – what Timmy says about communities small enough you could have a beer with your elected leaders, not just see them occasionally on the telly. Or radically changed the culture – get Ecksian on the universities might be a start. But the ballot box doesn’t seem to be enough.

  42. @Andrew C April 11, 2019 at 10:55 am

    A badger in your loft would have eaten it.

    Kitchen: crawled along water pipes

  43. @MBE

    If Farage and UKIP (&AMW) fail to reach a no-compete agreement, they will be destroyed

    Ref2: Yes, they are demanding ballot is:
    May’s Not Leave “deal”

    @Ducky McDuckface April 11, 2019 at 11:40 am

    NI/RoI border could be left open under WTO “Security” exemptions – prevent potential conflict/war/Op-Banner2

    @Steve April 11, 2019 at 12:09 pm

    I reckon Cameron and May are lefties

    Me too – and Mrs Pcar, brother & mother.

  44. Ecksy,
    The “fukkit, they’ve won” tendency MBE refers to could be a real thing- see this Guido report:

    But, on the flipside, the Brexit Part has been building an organisation, and now we know it looks like we’ll fight the Euro elections, it’s going to launch itself tomorrow:
    Brexit party events this weekend.

    The polling looks pretty dire, but I think a lot of people don’t even realise the Bexit Party exists. With Farage leading it, I’m hopeful it will gain prominence and pick up votes from Fukkit what’s the point?, UKIP, Labour and Conservatives.

  45. CJ – I’m not too fussed about the poll Guido refers to.

    As you say, the Brexit Party hasn’t yet begun to fight (though I’m sorry to say their internet presence remains abysmal – they really need to up their game there, pronto)

    But also because I reckon, by the time polls open, Brexiters will be a lot more motivated to turn out and give the government a kicking.

    Pcar – Yarp. Simplest explanation, innit?

  46. “KJ–Another 6 months for remainiac shite like you to suck EU dick.

    Meanwhile time to get on with the destruction of ZaNu and BlyLabour.,”

    There there, things not going your way. Diddums.

  47. By “things not going your way”, you mean that we are not getting the outcome a majority voted for (twice) because a minority didn’t like the result and they have the power to thwart the democratic process. You’re apparently comfortable with that which says almost as much about you as your use of the word “diddums”.

  48. Bloke in North Dorset said:
    “– Friction-less trade, no quotas or other barriers
    – We can negotiate trade deals with 3rd parties”

    By necessity May’s deal retains friction on trade with third countries, otherwise UK would become a route for third countries to cheat the EU out of import duties. We will have an independent tariff schedule at WTO but agree to never do better than the EU with those third countries. Oh and we’ll agree to abide by EU rules on state aid, environmental standards, regulations and the like in order to maintain a level playing field with the EU.(But I thought we were leaving?)

    We voted for independence. We voted to restore public sovereignty. We voted to make Westminster more accountable. Westminster thinks that it will be enough that we stop paying in to the EU budget and could (but won’t) reduce immigration. May’s deal is a cynical attempt to provide superficial answers to the issues people voted on.

  49. Gareth +1

    And – for a third party – why bother doing a trade deal with us, if they can do one with the EU instead, but which incliudes us in any case, and where we have no say in that deal and hence the third party doesn’t have to offer us anything in return for it?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *