Lib Dems – Where political parties go to dieMay 27, 2019 Tim WorstallPolitics54 CommentsHeidi Allen says Change UK could merge with Lib Dems Salvator sedes, eh? previousComment in The GuardiannextAin’t this fun? Labour third in Wales 54 thoughts on “Lib Dems – Where political parties go to die” Kevin Lohse May 27, 2019 at 8:33 am While the other 2 Westminster big beasts have been caught napping, the perennially opportunistic LibDems have been fleet-footed enough to spot a gap in the market and appeal to the visceral federast vote, not a bad move for them at all. The Chukkas were always a forlorn hope, and Heidi is being realistic in seeking to merge. The rogue Tories were always closet LibDems anyway. Chris Miller May 27, 2019 at 8:38 am I thought I was familiar with most Latin tags, but that’s a new one on me. Seat saviour? Tim Worstall May 27, 2019 at 8:51 am It’s made up out of cod Latin. Salvator sedes isn’t right but I wanted to get like “Salvator Mundi” in there JuliaM May 27, 2019 at 8:51 am “Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live, she said: “I would like us to be in the same vehicle.” Asked if she meant the same party, Allen replied: “Yeah, probably, I don’t know. ”” Who wouldn’t want such a towering intellect? Mr Ecks May 27, 2019 at 9:07 am The Limp Dicks have been boosted by remainiac trash because–as I said in the scummy example of our own dear Facepainter –the breed are mostly well-off, entirely self-centred London Bubble WOMI leftists. They want the UK betrayed to foreign tyranny because they are scum–BUT–not at Jizz’s price schedule. Taxes –yes–but for others not them. They fear Jizz’s dirty fingernails. Nor do they want the UK Venez-mess that Jizz and the gang will create. We ALL have lots to lose that way but they have more. Hence the Lib Dead surge. Edward Lud May 27, 2019 at 9:12 am Mr Miller, yes, the best I could do was ‘sitting saviour,’ which made no sense at all. Mr E, worth noting that London elected two BP members. Perhaps the metrop isn’t quite lost. Mr Ecks May 27, 2019 at 9:17 am The non-UK vote is a significant contribution to remain. My “backdated 100 year non-voting rule for migrants and offspring” would sink both the left and remain. Mark May 27, 2019 at 9:28 am Shit & corruption. A marriage made in heaven. Baron Jackfield May 27, 2019 at 9:31 am It would be interesting – if it was possible to get the actual figures, which I doubt – to run them as a GE based on FPTP for all the parliamentary constituencies… Would TBP get a working majority? Bloke in Germany May 27, 2019 at 9:33 am “Save yo ass” is what Tim means. Very good – round of applause time. Bloke in Germany May 27, 2019 at 9:34 am If also a Romanes eunt domus moment. Tractor Gent May 27, 2019 at 9:43 am I think the local vote counts were based on local authority divisions – that is certainly the case where I live, so a mapping onto parliamentary constituencies won’t be exact. However the local votes will be on all the local authority websites if you can be arsed to go through them all. I laugh at the Chuckies. Turning LibDem won’t save their seats in a GE. Theophrastus May 27, 2019 at 9:44 am Bye-Bye UKIP. Welcome Brexit Party. Edward Lud May 27, 2019 at 10:04 am Ah, slow here on the uptake. Yes well done, Tom. SadButMadLad May 27, 2019 at 10:06 am The problem with BP is that they are made up of a diverse group with no common ideals except for brexit. At least UKIP have a manifesto beyond just brexit. It’ll be interesting seeing Farage getting Tories and former Communists to work together. Mr Ecks May 27, 2019 at 10:26 am Theo–TA-TA also to your precious BlueLabour Party who have earned the title of a rabble–and a treacherous one–far more surely than UKIP ever did. bloke in spain May 27, 2019 at 11:27 am “The problem with BP is that they are made up of a diverse group with no common ideals except for brexit.” And this differs from the Labour & Tory parties in what way? At least the Brexit Party all seem to be on the same side. Bloke on M4 May 27, 2019 at 11:45 am Delusions of grandeur from Allen. They don’t want to join the LDs, they want to be equal partners, which is nice, but with 2.8% of the vote compared to 18.6% for the LDs, not a fucking chance. Dongguan John May 27, 2019 at 12:09 pm Hahahaha in other words “our little experiment failed and now we’re fucked because our old parties won’t take us back and our electorate despise us. So please gizzus a job and a seat we have a chance of winning.” John Galt May 27, 2019 at 12:09 pm The problem with BP is that they are made up of a diverse group with no common ideals except for brexit. Where you see that as a weakness, I see it as a strength. The BRExit party exists for one reason and one reason only, to beat the establishment which refuses to obey the referendum result of 2016 and deliver BRExit. The only way this can be achieved is by threatening electoral wipeout at every election until they deliver. A manifesto other than some variation of “Deliver BRExit” is unnecessary. Well done Nigel Paul Farage. You’re doing Gods work. jgh May 27, 2019 at 12:22 pm They want to do another SDP. “That’s a very nice party structure and local organisation you’ve got there, tell you what, why don’t we merge.” They can bugger off. John Galt May 27, 2019 at 12:27 pm They want to do another SDP. “That’s a very nice party structure and local organisation you’ve got there, tell you what, why don’t we merge.” They can bugger off. Maybe, but as it stands they are more of a threat to a resurgent Lib Dem party than to anyone else, especially in a first-past-the-post system, so having them on the Lib Dem ticket would neutralise that threat. Plus, its always good to have proven electoral success even if it originates in another party. “Liberal and Social Democrat Change UK” party anyone? jgh May 27, 2019 at 12:29 pm When everything has been sorted, all the council-by-council counts are published. Then, pop to the library and browse the elecotral register and count the number of people with G (non-UK EU elector) prefix. I don’t think there’s a code for non-UK Commonwealth electors. Without examining the marked register you won’t be able to tell if there’s a differential turnout between Gs and non-Gs. CJ Nerd May 27, 2019 at 12:31 pm Apologies if this appears multiple times, but I’m having trouble geting the website to accept it. Baron Jackfield “It would be interesting – if it was possible to get the actual figures, which I doubt – to run them as a GE based on FPTP for all the parliamentary constituencies…” Voting figures are published in due course for local authority wards, about 5,000 electors each, and constistuency boundaries never split a ward. (Aggregate voting figures for councils are also published- mine went up around 1:30 this morning.) So it’s possible to get those figures, add them up by constituency, and deliver a what-would-have-happend-in-a-GE analysis. Somebody- IIRC an academic at the University of Leicester- did that after the Referendum. It took about 2 weeks. Although I’m tempted to request the figures for my own area and do it myself, I think I’ll just sit back and wait for someone else to do it. But some takeaways: – Laura Kuenessberg pointed out on the BBC overnight that the Tories didn’t come top in a single local authority area. – The numbers have already been crunched for the Perterborough constituency, https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/european-elections-2019.292425/page-5#post-9294449 Brexit 16,196 38% Labour 7,272 17% LD 6,491 15% Con 4,594 11% Green 4,563 11% UKIP 1,537 4% Change UK 1,277 3% Eng Dem 284 1% Independent 65 0% TOTAL 42,279 100% Steve May 27, 2019 at 12:34 pm Where you see that as a weakness, I see it as a strength. The BRExit party exists for one reason and one reason only, to beat the establishment which refuses to obey the referendum result of 2016 and deliver BRExit +1 If the Brexit Party finds itself debating the best policy for pedestrianising Norwich town centre this side of leaving the EU, it will have lost. Brexit isn’t and shouldn’t be a centre-right thing. It’s for every Briton. Hug a Bennite today. MyBurningEars May 27, 2019 at 12:39 pm Defeats me what’s in it for the Lib Dems to go into any kind of electoral pact. As for a formal merger, Change UK hardly seem likely to bring in a raft of new members or activists with them, or any particularly useful intellectual property. If individual members want to sign up for the Lib Dem party instead, they can just sign up through the usual forms, can’t they? Hallowed Be May 27, 2019 at 12:50 pm Carpe Liberali? ChageUK- “fear not dear voters the revolution is here. All you need to know for now is we’re all about yay 4 Europe! we’ll work the rest out once we focus group it. ooh and don’t forget ladies… chris leslie. mmmm” Voters: “um if we want Europe we’ll vote Lib Dem ta very much.” TIggers say “yeah we could probably work something out. they do it in Europe all the time.” —————————————————————— The beauty of FPTP- no you won’t work something out, everyone’s competing against everyone. You’ve got to do it better, or newer or different, than your nearest ones, not just those over yonder. John Galt May 27, 2019 at 12:51 pm If individual members want to sign up for the Lib Dem party instead, they can just sign up through the usual forms, can’t they? Not necessarily, since most parties have a general rule that they don’t accept new members who have participated in an election that the party fought. We had a similar situation here in Perth where a young lad who had fought as an independent sought membership of the Labour Party (god knows why he wanted to join), but was rejected because he had violated that rule. He went on to be a reasonably competent independent councillor, so good for him. Obviously for MP’s crossing the floor exceptions are made, but I suspect the only way the traitors of CUK could join the Lib Dems would be through some kind of merger. Can’t see it happening though. Chuka Umunna would so it as a thwart of his ambition and who on earth would want Anna Soubry if they could avoid it? Heidi Allen? Never heard of her until she became the CUK’s talking head. MyBurningEars May 27, 2019 at 2:02 pm @JG It would require the Lib Dems to be a bit flexible about those rules, I know, but they might make an exception for Change ex members. The MPs are the only thing of value that Change can offer them, but even that doesn’t guarantee seats in the next parliament as I’m not sure how many Change MPs would retain theirs even with LD support or endorsement. Incidentally – isn’t there another hilariously well funded minor Remain party fighting the Peterborough by election? One that makes Change look like supreme political strategists in comparison? John Galt May 27, 2019 at 2:06 pm Looking at the candidate list for Peterborough, it’s difficult to see the wood for the trees. Who for example are “SDP fighting for BRExit”? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48384070 Patrick O’Flynn, candidate for the SDP Fighting for Brexit, said: “I am an outgoing MEP [for UKIP] and I am campaigning to get out of the European Union without the Thatcherite economics of the Brexit Party. “I’m a moderate calling for more money for the NHS and investment in public services, and I’m not in support of cutting them back.” Confused.com Ian B May 27, 2019 at 2:16 pm I’m not really feeling so good about all this. Farage’s Bring A Bottle Party will undoubtedly supply the necessary Brexit pressure but for a sorta-libertarian like myself, it obviously doesn’t represent and cannot represent anything beyond Brexit itself and I find the idea of it at at General Election rather ludicrous. Which means us still being in the Tory/Labour duopoly and continued progressivist extremism (“the centre” as the media calls it) for the foreseeable. Nige is thus (from my more general perspective) probably doing medium-long term harm. UKIP’s broad policies are a challenge to the Establishment’s values (Nigel isn’t) but now he himself is attacking them as “far right” and has pushed them sideways into irrelevance with the NFBABP so it’s all looking like less and less chance of an ideological earthquake. Which unfortunately means we at best get to leave the EU and then still have Tory and Labour governments fighting over who can be first to ban plastic spoons and throw the most people in jail for Tweeting. That might leave us with the forlorn, unlikely hope of Esther Mcvey (fiance: Philip Davies) getting into Number 10 since at last her bloke is openly contemptuous of the Jess Phillips tendency, but I doubt the Tory Progressophiles will allow that. We’ll presumably end up with a choice between Matt Handjob and that other bloke who appears to have died several weeks ago but hasn’t realised it yet. I’ve lost a lot of respect for Farage over this TBH. He’s probably just after a peerage and lots of media ops now. Bloke in North Dorset May 27, 2019 at 2:17 pm Change UK made it clear that their first aim was to destroy the LibDems, so any overtures aren’t going to go down well with the members. The SDP were serious heavy weight politicians who brought something to the merged party, CUK are a bunch of mostly unknown lightweight fantasists who couldn’t even organise their own launch in such a way as to maximise publicity. dearieme May 27, 2019 at 2:19 pm “Hug a Bennite today.” Steady on, old chap. MyBurningEars May 27, 2019 at 2:26 pm @John Galt There are still continuity Liberal and Social Democrat parties about since not everyone agreed with the merger. Think they’ve got a couple of councillors between them. Weirdly they’re both strongly pro Brexit (see the EU as illiberal and undemocratic) whereas the Lib Dems seem madly in love with it. MyBurningEars May 27, 2019 at 2:28 pm @dearieme Steve is correct, if it comes down to a second ref then it’ll take a certain number of left-wing opponents of the EU to come on board for Leave to win. Just as happened last time. Can’t win on a purely right or libertarian coalition alone. John Galt May 27, 2019 at 2:28 pm Hug a Bennite today. Yeah, but no. Temporary alliances make strange bedfellows, but the fact that the hard left want BRExit as much as the BXP and ERG Tories doesn’t make their other aspects tolerable. Both Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell have been long standing Eurosceptics, but this is because the EU places too much constraint upon their attempts to loot, pillage and put those they fear/despise in the gulags. So, I’ll pass on “Hugging a Bennite today” thanks very much. Ian B May 27, 2019 at 2:29 pm The Liberal Party were always very pro-EU (that is Common Market) before it was even fashionable, long before we joined. Steve May 27, 2019 at 2:37 pm Dearieme – c’mon big boy, gizz a kiss x MBE – Right! Let’s not think of this in normal sectarian party-political terms. It’s more like cheering on the British Lions. John Galt – if the British people want to elect a bonkers-Left 70’s-style Wolfie Smith party, it’ll piss me off, but it’s a million times better than not being a sovereign democracy at all. The alternative to Brexit really is Chinese-style authoritarian managerialism, forever, with no means of tossing the buggers out. Spare a thought for the Tiggers though: Still don’t know what I was waiting for And my time was running wild A million dead-end streets and Every time I thought I’d got it made It seemed the taste was not so sweet Sam Jones May 27, 2019 at 3:57 pm @Steve, if the British people elect a bonkers-Left 70’s-style Wolfie Smith party (and with a split right wing vote they could take power on 30% of the vote), I can’t see Britain remaining a democracy at all. With the likes of Seamus Milne and Andrew Murray in positions power, expect a ‘state of emergency’ and the suspension of elections. Ian B May 27, 2019 at 4:14 pm Sam, They wouldn’t do any such thing, there is no need. The Progressives rule by the illusion of democracy (you vote but it doesn’t mean anything). The rules and laws are simply put beyond the reach of the electorate. No need to do anything blatantly anti-democratic like suspending elections. You just make them meaningless. More deeply, they work by not being actually political. This is the thing I’ve been banging on about for years. They manipulate the moral landscape until only one view (theirs) is acceptable. Everyone else is pushed beyond the pale and into the outer darkness. People are easily manipulated by their perception of what the acceptable public morality is, even if they privately may have doubts. Which is the clever way to control people. You make them feel dirty and bad for disagreeing with you. Doesn’t work on everyone, but it works on enough people. Debate then becomes impossible because to voice these disagreements is so immoral that you won’t even get a say (see e.g. the treatment of Sargon and Dankula). It’s all about morals. Politics doesn’t matter (and I tried to argue with Libertarians, economics doesn’t matter either). Control the moral landscape, you control everything. That’s what they do. John Galt May 27, 2019 at 4:38 pm They manipulate the moral landscape until only one view (theirs) is acceptable. The problem with this is that it creates an ever growing “silenced minority” that eventually becomes a majority, but since it is verboten to express their views openly without being sanctioned they hold their tongue and only express themselves at the ballot box. Cue progressive horror and recoil when their parties are rejected at the elections in favour of centre right parties like the BRExit party. Long past time for Ecksian solutions all round and hempen neckwear for the right leaders. In my book there is no difference between May, the Tory traitors or those in the Labour party. Ian B May 27, 2019 at 4:48 pm John Galt- If we do ever get a sufficient silenced minority, then problem is solved as the moral validity of the Establishment collapses into ridicule, which is basically what happened in the 1960s (overturning the previous Progressive hegemony). I don’t think unfortunately we are anywhere near that yet. Two years working with lots of Millennials, most of whom were perfectly well meaning, carping about waycism and transphobia implied to me that we have a long way to go yet. —  To me, one of the great ironies of Conservatism is that most of the traditional values they carp on about preserving turn out to be first-wave Progressive innovations of the late 19th/early 20th century. Which is another part of the problem. PJF May 27, 2019 at 4:55 pm “If the Brexit Party finds itself debating the best policy for pedestrianising Norwich town centre…” If The Brexit Party go into a general election they’re going to be forced to address things like climate change, the NHS, defence, free speech, public spending, yada yada. They’ll have to present policies. And then they won’t be able to hold it together. As I said before, TBP is the perfect anti-EU protest party for the Euro elections. The only power they’ll have in a GE is the one UKIP had under Nigel – threaten to wipe out the Tories at the cost of a Labour govt. And the Tories don’t seem to care about that much. John Galt May 27, 2019 at 5:08 pm To me, one of the great ironies of Conservatism is that most of the traditional values they carp on about preserving turn out to be first-wave Progressive innovations of the late 19th/early 20th century. Which is another part of the problem. You’d have thought that the 100 million or so that died under Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot et al and continue to die under Maduro and others would have been justification enough, but apparently not. So we’ll continue going through this cycle of periodic political suicide because the we won’t learn the lessons of the past in any permanent fashion. I’m not saying that we should burn copies of Das Kapital in town centres across the world, but we should at least prevent the teaching of this dangerous propaganda to the young and stupid. The long march through the institutions is complete, which is why they are increasingly irrelevant and ignored. Let them collapse into bankruptcy and oblivion so that the buildings can be repurposed into something useful. Ian B May 27, 2019 at 5:19 pm JG- Unfortunately the lesson from history seems to me to be that endemically rotten states take everything with them when they go, like Rome. I would like to avoid that. How one changes the moral discourse from an outsider position though– I think about it more than is probably healthy, but never think of a good strategy. But one thing I think we need to understand (this being my analysis so of course I think I’m right) is that this has really little to do with Lenin, Stalin, Marx et al. Marxism, in a general broad sense, provided the current theoretical framework on which they built a justification for this moral system (class struggle) but in such a weird and distorted form that we are in practise no more fighting Marxism than Manicheanism. Perhaps one way to see this was that Marxism was a theoretical justification for the overthrow of an elite (the bourgeoisie) whereas Progressivism is a war on non-elites. That is, from a traditional Marxist perspective you’ve got an elite setting sections of the Proletariat (by sex, race, etc) against one another. Marx would be horrified. My argument is that this amounts to Puritanism. The Progressives began their march as overt religious fanatics in the UK and US with campaigns intended to morally purify and that is the more useful heritage to consider. They’re not fighting the bourgeoisie. They *are* the bourgeoisie. They’re fighting, in a secular form, the Devil himself. Who is a racist and a sexist and cis this and that, manifesting in the mundane works of the impure. NB Nothing written above should be taken as an implied endorsement of Marx. John Galt May 27, 2019 at 5:24 pm The only power they’ll have in a GE is the one UKIP had under Nigel – threaten to wipe out the Tories at the cost of a Labour govt. And the Tories don’t seem to care about that much. We seem to be in the position that BXP has not only stolen most of the Leave vote of UKIP, but has also leached the Leave wings of Labour and the Tories as well. They have the ability to disrupt politics without the ability to construct a genuine political platform. So, sure Nigel Farage 4 MP is a fantasy worthy of the autistic basement dwellers of 4Chan, but they do have the ability to split the vote of the main parties (plural) to such an extent that winning a working majority becomes impossible. In such a situation, Nigel Farage as a king maker with a small number of BXP MP’s in a Tory / DUP / BXP coalition is unlikely, but possible. Let’s hope that the Tories come to their senses about BRExit and we leave in October on WTO terms. Bloke on M4 May 27, 2019 at 5:27 pm Ian B, That’s what they want, and they think they can defeat people like Trump and Farage just by pointing out some ancient petty racism or sexism, but people aren’t buying it. Because waycism, sexism and homophobia are almost no one’s real priorities. If your toilet is backing up, and the only plumber available is the bloke who you know will bang on about how great Nick Griffin is, are you going to leave the plumbing problem or get him in? And what most people particularly don’t care about is petty racism. Someone who refers to coloured people rather than black or Afro-Caribbean. And what These People are missing is that the non-PC have stopped trying to get a voice into the msm, stopped being polite to them. Do you throw efforts at getting on C4 News or at building a YouTube presence? Ian B May 27, 2019 at 5:28 pm I keep thinking about the surge of enthusiasm for the SDP (“return to your constituencies and prepare for government”) until the Alliance got loads of votes and bugger all seats and became irrelevant again. If we don’t get out by Oct 31, without a GE, I think we’re fucked. If TBP has to go into a GE, God help us frankly. Winning EU seats is one thing. Getting MPs on the other hand… MyBurningEars May 27, 2019 at 6:46 pm @Ian B What job were you forced into taking where you were surrounded by millenials for two years? On the one hand I sympathise, on the other I think it may have been a useful lesson in what you’re up against. Scary innit? Mr Ecks May 27, 2019 at 7:32 pm Ian–The EU is part of a Globo elite that gives no more of a shite for millennial trash than it does for plebs. It finds them useful idiots but has no love for them. Eg–As Macron shows the less well off are to be priced out of motoring–FIRST. But how do millennial dickheads profit from returning to shank’s pony at all? They don’t. They can fantasise but the Elite’s reality –that mills are also going down the shitter asap is no benefit to the mills. You are right that the lefts cockrot has got to lots of dim middle class trash–but it only sticks so long as they are comfortably off. Under Globo-elite rule that isn’t going to last. I’m glad to see you back but I’d forgotten about your depressive streak. Bloke on M4 May 27, 2019 at 7:52 pm “My argument is that this amounts to Puritanism. The Progressives began their march as overt religious fanatics in the UK and US with campaigns intended to morally purify and that is the more useful heritage to consider. They’re not fighting the bourgeoisie. They *are* the bourgeoisie. They’re fighting, in a secular form, the Devil himself. Who is a racist and a sexist and cis this and that, manifesting in the mundane works of the impure.” I think there was a time in the late 70s/early 80s when the progressives looked like the right way forward. They were standing up against bigotry, but over time, they gained power and it went to their heads. I see what we’re going through as a lot like the mid-70s to mid-80s, as the power of the conservative church diminished and the power of TV rose, and TV changed politics. It is the tool of the progressives and they used it to change politics by controlling the narrative. I’m not saying that they brainwashed anyone, but if you omit people talking about Milton Friedman, or if every “expert” is basically leaning towards their views, like Oliver James or Will Hutton, it’s a similar result. People should understand that this era isn’t going to last much longer. Brexit is symptomatic of this change. So is Trump getting elected. I’m not quite sure what happens next, but it won’t be pretty for the people at the BBC, in universities or in the indentity politics industries. John Galt May 27, 2019 at 8:26 pm I’m not quite sure what happens next, but it won’t be pretty for the people at the BBC, in universities or in the indentity politics industries. Propaganda is failing. “You still watch TV? How quaint”. Look at most Millennials. They are consumers of content from a variety of sources. Sure, they might binge watch The Blue Planet or the occasional BBC News item republished on YouTube, but old media is an anachronism. Journalism on paper, radio, tv and print are dead to them. The BBC is on life support only sustained by the mass payments of the stale, pale and male (or stale, pale and female) that they deride and alienate every day. What happens when they are finally dead? Can’t see the oddity of BBC License fee being sustainable if no one watches the propaganda unless we get 1984 style TV’s that fill the room and can’t be turned off. We’re hearing the plaintive cries of the last buggy whip manufacturers about the quality and craftsmanship of their buggy whips. Fuck ’em. Get a proper job you fucking fucks. Bloke on M4 May 28, 2019 at 8:41 am John Galt, Spot on. One of my daughters watches Spelling Bee and Strictly Come Dancing, and that’s it. The other watches almost no regular TV. My eldest is really into science and so watches a lot of YouTube, as TV has stopped doing serious science (Blue Planet is pretty, but it ain’t science) BlokeInBrum May 29, 2019 at 12:20 pm I’m in the same situation, both girls glued to YouTube and various bloggers. In a generation the BBC will cease to have any relevancy. It’s a dinosaur, dead already but the signal hasn’t reached it’s (pea) brain yet. Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.