Where will the next financial crisis start: America or Germany?
Tim Worstall

Answered just now
We don’t know. And if we did it would already have happened.

29 thoughts on “Quora”

  1. I’m no financial prestidigitator, but China’s looking shaky and you’ve got to wonder how true their official figures are. They bailed out another bank just last month?

  2. On Samizdata I suggested that the UK should offer another 99 year deal to take Hong Kong back again at twice the cash that the Reds are presently getting from HK. Expensive for HK but shitloads better than Chicom invasion and massacre.

    Why might the Reds deal? Because their economy is in trouble, East Africa is looking increasingly fucked and angry at the Chicoms. The last thing they need is a massive own black eye from not just invading and killing Hong Kongers but also collapsing HK as a financial centre. Something they can’t really afford.

    A deal would be good for all. BoJo gets a feather in his cap as an I’ntl figure and wannabe peacemaker just by making the offer. If the Chicoms accepted the kudos of being the anti-Chris –scum-Pattern would ensure the finish of the remainiacs here at home.

    And a lot of money and HK lives would be saved. The world debt Crash cannot be held off forever but a few more years might be gained.

  3. Dennis, He Who Calls Out Bullshit

    Speaking for people who need to lay off the mushrooms…

    If recent events have shown us anything, it’s that whatever government the British have during any given week, the one thing that can be counted on is a rapid, coherent response to whatever the task is at hand.

    Brexit, for example.

    You think the Chinese are going to wait around for years while fifteen different prime ministers from four different parties try to cobble together a deal they can get their party and/or coalition to agree to… before presenting anything to the Chinese themselves?

  4. Dennis, He of Limited Brain Cells

    I meant to say “Speaking to people who need to lay off the mushrooms…”

    These days even a single toke gets me confused.

  5. @Mr Ecks August 15, 2019 at 3:15 pm

    “another 99 year deal”? We owned HK in perpetuity; we had a 99 year lease on New Territories

  6. Pcar–Really? I didn’t know that.

    Dennis –limited brain cells is right. BoJo prob doesn’t have the rocks for it. Trump has already seen the opportunity but likely won’t be able to. The UK could with enough leadership. And BTW–at least our polipigs –scum tho’ most of them are–weren’t on works outings to Pedo Island.

    As for the deep water harbour bit–yeah if a WW2 rematch was on the cards. But in an age of nukes harbours are just more targets. And they can build all the artificial island harbours they want.

  7. Great, let’s buy back Hong Kong and then strangle its economy with more pointless red tape then the Chinese Communist Party would ever dream of.

    I can’t see a government which thinks its business is mandating how much sugar is in a bar of chocolate being gung ho in favour of free capitalism in HK

  8. Nor did I.

    I thought we had a 150 tenancy of HK, ending in 1997.

    Thus,i found all of the posturing at the time (and since) daft, er, posturing.

  9. I like the plan Mr Ecks.

    But where are we going to get the money from to buy HK? I didn’t think our finances were that great either, but I also don’t know how much twice the annual gdp of Hk is…
    (Legit question)

  10. Dennis, He Who Isn’t Impressed By Brainfarts

    Ecks –

    I’m afraid you’re a couple of centuries late to the building empires game. Let’s see if you can get out of the EU before the turn of the century, then you can ramp up the Rule Britannia phase of your diabolical master plan.

  11. There seems to be a fear of the Chinese Army doing a 23rd October on the hungary HK protestors. If the UK had given the people of HK second amendment rights back in the day, then this fear would run the other way.

  12. Dennis–you were likely the Pedo Island bus driver.

    Chernyy–I wasn’t suggesting that we buy HK–the double contribution would have to come from HK–but at the moment I’m sure they would see it as far preferable to no money +Chicom occupation and possible mass murder + certain tyranny.

    Rob+Mr Lud–Agreed but I said I doubt BoJo –even as the best of a VERY bad BlueLabour crowd has either the stones or the vision.

    But the idea could work.

  13. After the Opium wars China handed over HK island and Kowloon up to boundry street for ever. in 1898 the UK negotiated the new territories, lantau island and some others but China would only go so far as a 99 year lease.

    When it came to the lease ending there was little point in trying to hold on to Kowloon and the island.

  14. Hong Kong’s sovereign wealth fund has assets of more than $500 billion. Can’t see the UK finding the cash to cover that, never mind anything else.

  15. Even if the UK could afford it China would never give it back. They couldn’t afford the loss of face again. Mighty China handing over ‘sovereign Chinese territory’ to some little Island nation 6000 miles away?? The CCP have spent their entire history wipping up nationalism… there’s just no way they would ever consider it.

  16. …China has killed off unification with Taiwan.

    Peaceful, negotiated unification.

    If China storms Hong Kong by force (violently crushing the protests) and gets away with it internationally (which, of course, it would), then it may be emboldened to do similar with Taiwan.

  17. Invading Taiwan would be an order of magnitude more difficult than Hong Kong. For a start, it’s separated from the mainland by over 100 miles.

  18. More like two or three orders of magnitude, and the Taiwanese can make the commies pay dearly for their conquest. But it’s still well within the capability of the PLA.

    The real cost (or risk of) would be diplomatic / economic. But a faltering regime in a China that’s losing face may see the risk as worth it (see Putin adventures).

  19. @Mr Ecks @Mr Lud

    Yes, really. UK didn’t try too hard for a new New Territories lease. They concluded without New Territories HK not viable, give (not sell) it to China.

    HK was not happy at being given to China and there was mass emigration – ~20% of population

  20. it’s still well within the capability of the PLA

    Are you sure? We’re talking of something at least as challenging as D-Day, requiring close co-ordination of land, sea and air forces. Maybe, maybe not – and you’d want to be really confident of success before trying it.

    PRC could reduce Taiwan to a radioactive wasteland, but what would be the point in that?

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