BrexitSeptember 4, 2019 Tim WorstallEuropean Union81 CommentsNo, have no idea. Not going to read the details either. Am instead polishing the piano wire just in case. previousThere’s snowflake for younextA threat! 81 thoughts on “Brexit” Steve September 4, 2019 at 9:20 am Let’s hope Boris has been studying Francis Urquhart. I have a great belief in Britain, you know. We are not a nation of social workers, or clients of social workers. We are not, please God, a nation of deserving cases. We are a fierce, proud nation, and we are still, God willing, a nation to be reckoned with! Diogenes September 4, 2019 at 9:32 am How is it even possible to legislate an impossibility? Eg the EU has said all along that the trade deal cannot be negotiated until we leave and now the Letcow tendency won’t let us leave until we have a new trade deal. Surely there is something in our constitution to prevent our betters concoct such arrant absurdity! Gary Moran September 4, 2019 at 9:35 am I stumbled across Tim’s site in the late noughties (from one of his articles on El Reg). Tim persuaded me of the merits of free markets, free trade and leaving the EU. During the Referendum, from a comment here, I then found Richard North’s site. I read as many of his posts as I could and found that on Brexit I agreed with him: leaving is a process not an event, is fraught with danger and remaining in the EEA would be the safest course. When Leave won the Referendum and it was clear there was an associated resurgence of a hard Brexit position (IMO) I became concerned that that hard-line position could ultimately prevent Brexit. I think Boris has lost. I think the Conservative party will lose votes to the Brexit party and lose seats to the Lib Dems, but I think will still be the largest party. The next government will be a coalition who will legislate a new referendum that Remain will win. I think we have lost because Brexit became a faction fight between hard Brexit and Remain and without the MP’s to deliver that hard Brexit then the Remain sentiment loaded the establishment dice against Brexit (Miller, judiciary, Bercow etc.). Hoping something comes up to save the day. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 9:52 am You are a classic astroturfer chum. “Oh Yes! I’m really on your side–I support free markets etc–but its really all over isn’t it?” Piss off and try your crap on some dumber site. Jim September 4, 2019 at 10:02 am “When Leave won the Referendum and it was clear there was an associated resurgence of a hard Brexit position (IMO) I became concerned that that hard-line position could ultimately prevent Brexit.” You’ve fallen for the ‘re-framing’ process that the usual suspects indulge in when they want to bamboozle people. There’s no such thing as a ‘Hard Brexit’. Its Remainer code for ‘Leaving the EU’. They’ve renamed ‘Leaving’ as ‘Hard Brexit’, and are now telling you that ‘Leaving’ should mean lots of things that strangely enough seem a lot like stay in the EU. All the way through the referendum they were telling us that voting to Leave meant exactly what they now term a Hard Brexit – no Single Market access, not being the Customs Union, no free trade deal. This was because at the time they were trying to scare people to stay in the EU. But people voted to Leave anyway. Having lost the vote, they changed their tune, suddenly Leaving actually meant lots of other things that coincidentally seemed very like staying in the EU – being in the Single Market, accepting EU laws and the ECJ, being in the Customs union. And the thing that they had just months previously defined as ‘Leaving the EU’ was some terrible thing that the ‘Far Right’ was trying to ‘impose’ on the UK. Funny that. John Galt September 4, 2019 at 10:03 am @Gary Moran – You’re delusional. I suggest you seek psychiatric help. You’ve clearly got Brexit Derangement Syndrome. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 10:07 am Astroturf above proves that the scum of the left are dedicated to their evil. Types like him are still on the job even as the rest of the remainiacs are all over the web jizzing in their pants and jazz-handing their triumph. OK BoJo is not the sharpest tool in the box. He was smart enough to be a far better London Mayor than Sad Dick Khant. Cummings and Rees-Mogg are NOT fools ( despite Moggs yellow-spine-ed loss of nerve backing Treason May’s WAnk-fest when it looked like she might win). I don’t think the 3 of them would agree to form a govt with only the hope of persuading a group of known Tory EU-grab-their -ankles traitor MPs to grow a conscience. There must be a plan. Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 10:08 am Astroturfer = someone who disagrees with Fecks. It rather depends on whether Boris can do a deal with Farage to keep the Brexit party out of tory safe seats, and tory candidates to stand aside in favour of the Brexit party in labour seats. Pretty much any other constellation is going to result in a massive defeat for Boris, isn’t it. Without really delivering a win for anyone else, the parliament will likely be Rump fanatical brexit Tory party Rump god only knows what they stand for Labour party SNP clean sweep Large Brexit Party bloc but probably insufficient for a coalition with the Tories Much larger Lib Dem bloc Plenty of independent Tories, Chukka/Soubry hangers-on etc. Vote Borisexit, get a Lib/Lab/SNP coalitiion. Steve September 4, 2019 at 10:10 am Gary – Think I’ve taken the opposite trajectory to yourself re: Brexit. I’d have been content about some sort of fudgy “deal” shortly after the referendum, but the lying and crying of the Continuity Remainers over the last 3 years has convinced me No Deal is the only option. If Brexit was going to be a process, we’d have started it by now. It’s clear that TPTB will never allow that process to unfold, it’ll take a short, sharp shock to extract us from the EU. If we can’t get politicians to obey the electorate on this, we will effectively cease being a democratic country and might as well look forward to Chinee-style social credit and all the other horrors that go with being ruled by an unaccountable elite who dictate to the plebs while swanning around in their Zil lanes or whatever. But that is not the British way. I also disagree that Boris has lost, he can win this if he has the testicular fortitude to back up his words with action. He’s still the Prime Minister, and that’s a formidable bully pulpit for anyone with the will to use it. Last night wasn’t an avoidable defeat for Boris, it was already baked into the cake and nothing he could have done would’ve prevented it. All he could do is try to create the conditions to extract a win from the mess Treeza left him – and so far (so far, mind you) he’s doing that very well. Splendidly, even. It comes down to whether the Prime Minister has the guts to take us out of the EU without the quasi-mythical “deal”. If Boris actually believes his own rhetoric, he has considerable powers and privileges at his disposal to confound the Remain gang. If he takes Steve’s advice, he will bloody well make sure we’re out of the EU before voters go to the polls, and win a landslide. If he doesn’t, it’s up for grabs and anybody’s guess what happens next. However, the 17.4 million of us who voted to Leave the EU haven’t gone away you know. There is no way of putting the Brexit toothpaste back in the tube – even a Remain victory in a second referendum would simply destroy the political establishment as we know it while setting up future Brexit struggles. It’d be like John Major’s “bastards” on steroids and with superpowers. For those reasons, I’m recommending Brexit as a “buy”. Richard Gadsden September 4, 2019 at 10:14 am Please don’t kill yourself Tim. The Meissen Bison September 4, 2019 at 10:16 am When Leave won the Referendum and it was clear there was an associated resurgence of a hard Brexit position (IMO) When Leave won the referendum there was no ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit position – these are confections produced by the Remain side whose aim has been to bamboozle and confuse. There was also no kind of resurgence of anything other than, perhaps, complacency on the part of the electorate who thought that its job was done. The reality has always been that there is only one form of Brexit which is the Brexit that both Remain and Leave referenced during the campaign itself and which was set out in the government’s document circulated to all households. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 10:23 am Biggie–It seems BDS has reached even Tchermany. That you are too dim to see Moron for what he is disappoints but does not surprise Biggie. As for your GE tripe–what is the alternative–just fucking let your remainiac pals win? If Bojo teams with TBP–a very light deal indeed–then he wins. Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 10:23 am Steve, He isn’t going to win a landslide. Look at the polling. And the number of ejected heavyweights, that will split constituency associations, see independent tories going up against official tories, and brexit party candidates handing seats to the liberals and others. A tory majority government is the one thing Boris is never going to have, either side of the next election (assuming it is soon). The next parliament is likely to be, incredible as it may seem, even more of a mess than this one. Steve September 4, 2019 at 10:25 am BiG – It rather depends on whether Boris can do a deal with Farage to keep the Brexit party out of tory safe seats, and tory candidates to stand aside in favour of the Brexit party in labour seats. If he’s smart, he’ll use his discretionary power to fix the election date after we leave the EU. This will make The Brexit Party as appealing and relevant as last month’s milk. If he’s too smart for his own good, he’ll try some sort of pact with Farage. This carries considerable dangers after Theresa May sold us a pig in a poke in 2017. Boris could still win in this scenario, but I’ll assume he’s lying about leaving the EU and vote accordingly, as will a currently unknown number of other potential/traditional Tory voters. This would probably result in some sort of Frankenstein Remain coalition and the final heat death of the Conservatives, with Brexit becoming the political equivalent of an untreated boil that gets progressively more swollen and painful until it erupts in a future crisis. The sensible thing is to leave on October 31. Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 10:28 am Ecks, I am absolutely not a BDS supporter (quite the opposite, regular visitor to Israel) and I don’t know what Piers Moron has to do with this. If you meant something else I suggest you start speaking English if you want to be understood. I don’t really have a horse in this fight, but it is obvious that if Boris actually wants a hard Brexit he looks like he is behaving rather irrationally in calling an election. A Brexit majority in the commons post-election is reliant on a stand-aside deal with Farage and that would have to be sold to constituency candidates in Labour safe seats. Anything else will reduce both the Labour and Tory seat count, possibly quite dramatically. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 10:33 am Biggie–Fuck the polling–the 93% certainty of Killery win and 52% remain and all that crap. The polls are used to frighten mugs. It depends on BoJo. TBP deal offer has been made–it could not be better. No Ministers, no MPs –just a clean No Deal exit on 31/10/19. That’s it. And they will co-operate during the GE. If Boris tries to revive Treason May’s shite –or any part of it–then he is just Treason May 2 and was never serious about Brexit. Steve is correct GE after Brexit. Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 10:34 am Steve, Corbyn is obviously working on the assumption that Boris will change the date after the election bill is passed. It’s very much in his interests to have an election immediately after Brexit day, and against them to have it before. That level of disingenuity by Boris could well lead to a tory wipeout, which gives Corbyn the hard Brexit he wants, none of the blame for it, and the keys to no. 10. Even without a dog in the race I can see that’s possibly the most undesirable outcome all round. Steve September 4, 2019 at 10:34 am BiG – “Independent” Tories will struggle to retain their deposits and Philip Hammond’s handful of local cronies certainly won’t amount to much in an election. Jeremy Corbyn is far less popular now than he was in 2017. Brexit is overwhelmingly popular with the sort of people who might reasonably be persuaded to vote Conservative. The Lib Dems have limited appeal. I’m not a cephalopod, just have a gut instinct for these things. My Steve senses are telling me that Boris would be basically running uncontested if he held an election immediately after leaving the EU. Most of the opposition to him is based on fear and loathing of Brexit, not a desire to see Steptoe in Downing Street. Rip that plaster off, and they’ll have basically nothing to mobilise the troops – beyond the old shopworn quasi-Marxist platitudes. Most resistance is to change (which is why it was a masterstroke to hold the original EC referendum after we’d joined). Once Brexit happens, a lot of that steam will simply dissipate. Jim September 4, 2019 at 10:34 am “It comes down to whether the Prime Minister has the guts to take us out of the EU without the quasi-mythical “deal”. If Boris actually believes his own rhetoric, he has considerable powers and privileges at his disposal to confound the Remain gang.” The irony is that Parliament voting to take control of the process means that they have also voted to take the responsibility for what happens. If by use of their considerable executive powers the Government now manage to confound Parliament and we drop out by default on the 31st Oct, then who owns the No Deal? Not the Government, they’re not in charge…………..I would like to think this is all part of a Dominic Cummings masterplan – corral all the Remain elements (including Labour, who actually contain quite a lot of Leave elements) into one position, basically one of Continuity Remain, and make that position entirely undemocratic (in that they won’t allow a GE) either. So Boris now has a free hand to act how he wishes – Parliament is providing ‘democratic’ cover for him. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 10:36 am In this context BDS=Brexit Derangement Syndrome–which you know very well. I don’t know what BoJo is about save that –given the nature of UK govt–he has to box clever re Parliament and try to keep the forms. Denying Royal Assent was already pioneered successfully by Bliar. Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 10:41 am Thanks for the clarification Ecks. No, I didn’t know the acronym. And like I said, I really have no menagerie in this event. I think it’s stupid but the effect on me will be pretty minimal unless Corbyn gets in and institutes taxation by passport. jgh September 4, 2019 at 10:49 am There’s currently somebody on the news saying “I’ve been here for eleven years, and when I applied for settled status three weeks ago….” YOU’VE HAD ALMOST THREE YEARS TO APPLY!!! in fact, YOU’VE HAD *ELEVEN* YEARS!!!!!! Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 10:59 am jgh, stop spreading fake news. The EU settlement scheme only opened in April 2019. Prior to that EU citizens in the UK (as in the whole EU) are treated the same as nationals of the host country with respect to residency rights and there was not only no requirement to “register” someplace to get a right of abode, there was no option to. All the legal obligations to register for anything, in every EU country (e.g. in Germany telling the town hall where you live) apply equally to all EU nationals. All special registration schemes for other EU nationals were abolished in around 2008, precipitated in part because Italy still insisted EU nationals go through the “foreigners registration” as non-EU nationals. Get your facts straight. The Meissen Bison September 4, 2019 at 11:07 am Großer: I don’t really have a horse in this fight, Even without a dog in the race Bit confused on species and metaphors? Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 11:23 am It’s a German attempt at humour. Diogenes September 4, 2019 at 12:04 pm Big, I think jgh is referring to the Life in the UK test that has been around since 2002 and which is still currently in operation Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 12:12 pm Which is totally irrelevant, isn’t it. “Life in the UK” is for people applying for citizenship. So two people here are totally confused about the legal basis on which EU citizens can reside in EU countries. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 12:12 pm Re Boris-Farage pact in a pre-Brexit snap GE. I’d rate this as unlikely since 1) there’s history and Farage doesn’t trust Boris, 2) one of Farage’s demands is Boris abandons efforts to seek a deal, but Boris is not in a good position to do this even if deep down he doesn’t mind No Deal as much as other Tories do (his whole shtick is “keep No Deal on the table in order to get a deal” and changing tack to “I seek No Deal” would alienate an even larger swathe of Tory MPs and supporters), 3) on the flip side Farage is anti-establishment and doesn’t want to be seen as explicitly right-wing when seeking Labour votes (some TBP candidates have deliberately been drawn from the left for this reason) so getting into bed with Boris would undermine this and Farage’s “insurgents vs establishment betrayal” shtick, 4) The benefits are lopsided, since the Tories would be unlikely to give up any Tory-TBP seats and in Labour-TBP seats not only are TBP going to be a long way back but the Tory vote is generally so small that the pact will make little difference even if we assume good levels of vote transferability; on the other hand the Tory hopes rest heavily on squeezing TBP voteshare as low as possible in swathes of seats where majorities over Labour or LDs are slimmer than the likely Farageist vote, 5) the benefits may not be as strong as it first appears (certainly dangerous to assume you can just add up Tory plus TBP polling percentages for example) given both parties are not the most transfer-friendly – Farage won’t get the votes of Tory remainers, Tories will struggle to get votes from left-wing ex-Labour leavers who would have been willing to vote TBP. The counter-argument is that the Tories need this so badly in the event of a pre-Brexit GE that it’ll have to happen. I’m unconvinved and would be genuinely surprised, for the reasons above, if one can be reached. If it does materialise my guess is that Farage may need to wind his demands back considerably – as God-King of TBP he could probably do that with some impunity, but what’s in it for him and his ideology to do so? Chernyy_Drakon September 4, 2019 at 12:15 pm The longer this goes on, the more damage is being done to our country. Leavers and remainers becoming increasingly acrimonious. Politicians refusing to execute the will of the people. People losing faith (what little they had) that politicians are acting on their behalf. People losing faith in the very processes we have. Damage to our international credibility. Fractures becoming exacerbated within the UK between countries Where will all this end? Let’s consider a scenario or two. Scenario 1: We leave with no Deal. Sensible people carry on with their lives. What happens to the remainiacs? I can’t see them just suddenly giving up. Will they be campaigning and running on an election platform of applying to join the EU? What will their argument be? Scenario 2: we end up staying in the EU or leave in name only. What will happen? I think the majority of people will become massively disillusioned with politics and politicians. New parties will rise up, probably more leftist and rightist than the current centralise bunch. Either way, interesting and turbulent times ahead. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 12:21 pm MBE–Again I have my doubts about you. Farage has already offered–for the sake of Britain–a deal to co-operate on a GE –likely with TBP taking the North where the Tories have a certain toxicity–and Tories down south . It would be a massive boost. Farage asked nothing save a No Deal Brexit which is why TBP exists. If BoJo is still planning a Treason May revival then he is just another Tory traitor. If he accepts the already offered arrangement then he will have 5 years as PM of a majority govt and be the man who won Brexit and beat the traitors all. His choice. The Meissen Bison September 4, 2019 at 12:27 pm It’s a German attempt at humour. Never a good idea – especially from an Ersatz German. Tut mir Leid. PJF September 4, 2019 at 12:39 pm Boris would be basically running uncontested if he held an election immediately after leaving the EU. Yeah, that would be a slam dunk; like holding an election immediately after winning the Second World War. Maybe it’s better to hold one just before Brexit whilst being the only (realistic) candidate willing to lead us out. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 12:49 pm @Ecks Surely you can see that becoming an explicitly Never Dealer would undermine all the positions Johnson took both during the leadership campaign and his premiership to date? And undermine his position within his party – where even after this mini-purge, the vast majority of MPs (including the majority of his cabinet) backed May’s deal and are opposed to No Deal? I also don’t see it as nailed on that a TBP pact will secure a Brexiteer majority at a snap GE. Unless they are gifted some prime seats (presumably with Tory sacrificial MPs elevated to the Lord’s) I can’t see TBP winning even five seats at the GE, we don’t have proportional representation in this country and their vote is very inefficiently spread. If there’s a magnificent pincer movement available I’m not seeing it. jgh September 4, 2019 at 12:51 pm No, my point is the people who say “I’ve made the UK my home”, while patently *NOT* making the UK their home by doing the legal wotsit to back up their assertions – and then complaining that with only six weeks left that they’re being rushed into it. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 1:00 pm Again MBE all show and bullshit. His position with the Tory members- 80% of them–would be stellar. If he wants to suck the dick of a gang of professional polipig MP liars and crooks in preference–then his grasp of politics is as shady as yours. TBP has up to 17.4 million potential votes plus several million more ex-remain voters who have seen the remainiacs in action. But I’m sure your poll guided wisdom just MUST be right. Bloke in Germany September 4, 2019 at 1:04 pm jgh, The “legal wotsit” has only been in existence for 16 weeks. There literally was no “legal wotsit” of any description prior to that. Never was one. So who is the cause of the rush? MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 1:07 pm For what it’s worth, I think the next election result – if fought on a “Brexit” basis – will depend mostly on a couple of factors: 1) differential turn-out (will remainers or leavers be more motivated to vote?) 2) how willing are people to vote tactically within their constituency on a leave/remain basis (pretty much any vote for Farage is rigidly non-tactical and potentially wastefully ideological; on the other hand Corbyn is not super transfer friendly and lots of young people are still angry with the LDs over tuition fees though the changing of their guard may have detoxified them) 3) Will the election stay “on-topic”? In practice 2017 didn’t. But maybe this time the Brexit issue will be more pressing. I’m not sure when the best time for Boris to have a GE would be. For practical reasons he might like it sooner. Immediately before Brexit and he has the problem that he hasn’t delivered; immediately after and he runs the risk of short-term disruption (eg queues at border ports and disaster-style rolling news coverage of minor shortages) looking like Brexit has failed upon arrival. There is also the strong possibility of a global economic slowdown looming (whether you’re looking at yield curves, trade wars or business confidence indices across most developed countries) so you wouldn’t want to delay it too long, something like six months or a year post-Brexit might be particularly bad timing. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 1:10 pm @big The fact the government has been so poorly prepared over this entirely predictable issue had better not be an indicator of what the No Deal prep has been like. (I think this one is really on May rather than Boris, but it doesn’t look good.) MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 1:13 pm @Ecks The Tory Party isn’t the Brexit Party. Take a long hard look at Johnson’s policies, at the people who make up his cabinet (Amber Rudd!!!) and you’ll realise they’re almost all “traitorous sell-outs” who want a Deal. The ERG might suit your tastes but they’re mostly on the fringes of the party. Diogenes September 4, 2019 at 1:21 pm BiG I was under the impression that the UK is trying to leave the EU Arthur Teacake September 4, 2019 at 1:32 pm @MBE 12:12pm: 1 Trust is irrelevant. Nobody needs to trust Boris, all they need do is decide what he’s likely to do in the circumstances they’re interested in. He may not be trustworthy but he’s at least a bit predictable. 2 Boris is not in a position to abandon a deal right now, but the situation will be very different very soon — maybe by the end of this week. At some point he can say to Parliament, OK guys, I have been pursuing a deal as diligently as anyone could, and you have done nothing but try to sabotage it. Well congratulations, you’ve succeeded. The deal is dead. Now we’re going into an election, and the Conservative platform is no-deal Brexit, aka Leave the EU just as the country demanded. 3 Farage isn’t there to be anti-establishment or left-wing. He’s there to achieve Brexit. If the Conservative platform is no-deal Brexit it makes no sense to contest where the Conservative candidate stands a good chance of winning. It makes a lot of sense to contest where a Remain or Neverendum candidate might win. His supporters will understand that. Trying to satisfy those who can’t bring themselves to vote Conservative anyway would do more harm than good. 4 I don’t follow this argument at all. All that matters is whether both parties benefit from an agreement. The Brexit party would benefit because it convinces the Conservatives to do what they should have in the first place and damn well implement Brexit. Goal achieved. The Conservative party would benefit because the alternative is the Brexit party taking away a significant (if unknowable) proportion of their votes across the entire country: safe seats, marginals and no-hopers alike. And it seems to me that country is minded to punish the Conservatives for their three years of failure: if they don’t deliver Brexit they’re going to get thrashed, and even the (genuinely alarming) threat of Corbyn will not stop it. 5 Nobody’s doing a voter count. Everybody’s got a feel for the proportions though. Steve September 4, 2019 at 1:33 pm PJF – Yeah, that would be a slam dunk; like holding an election immediately after winning the Second World War. Rather different scenarios, no? We had a national government during WW2 that had already willingly done much of the spadework to prepare Britain for a shiny new socialist future. And Jeremy is no Atlee. The biggest threat to Boris winning a GE isn’t enthusiasm for Labour, it’s lack of enthusiasm among Tory voters. Bloke on M4 September 4, 2019 at 1:55 pm No-one likes shooting deserters. You do it pour encourager les autres. And that’s where I’m at with Brexit. It’s not about Brexit now. It’s about who runs the shit. It’s about crushing the rebels, destroying their careers. I don’t even care how long it takes as long as there’s a bloodbath of the opponents along the way. Brexit hasn’t just delivered Brexit. It’s exposed The Enemy Class to the people. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 1:56 pm MBE-I get now what is bugging me. You have done me no harm and I mean no harm by what I say. You are cut from the same cloth as the Facepainter. To avoid too much insult I’ll say you are maybe a useful suit whereas Face is a 50 year-old-never-washed-never-out-of-use -3rd world slum community shitrag. But there is the same bloodless calculation and me,me thread. What politics should I adopt this month-ie what suits me? What benefits me?. Calculating, pseudo-intellectual and without any blood whatsoever. The idea of going toward the sound of guns for a cause or an ideal– no. Always –what’s in it for me, how can I calculate my advantage. Sure too much emotion can be bad also. But you seem to have no grasp of the idea that millions might have a cause in Brexit and the rescue of their nation. It’s like you think everyone is : “what Party is best for me –this week/this election?”. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 1:57 pm 1) Could Farage trust that PM Boris wouldn’t end up signing something that smells a but like the WA post Brexit? Trust matters. 2) If Boris tries that, aside from any impact on his electoral coalition (likely small but times are tight) he’ll lose another chunk of the parliamentary party and a swathe of his cabinet will walk out. He’ll be withdrawing the whip not just from the ex chancellor but likely the ex PM and many of the cabinet. 3) Farage’s electoral appeal rests on a betrayal narrative, anti-establishment credentials and ability to attract both left and right-wing fed-up voters. He would surely be cautious about endangering these facets. 4) I take your point that my focus was electoral not the wider ideological benefits but would Farage accept zero electoral impact and no say in the Commons? If you don’t trust the Tories to deliver and administer what Farage sees as a “proper” Brexit then I think you’d want at least some voice post-election. 5) My guess is someone is doing a voter count! Would be interesting to know how strongly party strategists rate the likely impact. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 2:06 pm The deal from Farage is No Deal in exchange for no strings. Yes he looks to his own advantage as do most of us in some context. But the offer was for the sake of his and our nation. No strings. Many people are otherwise selfish but have put their own wants aside for a good cause and I believe Farage’s offer is just that. No Deal for TBP co-operation. Anyone putting their own advantage first in such a situation or calculating what’s in it for them is a piss poor specimen. Bloke on M4 September 4, 2019 at 2:19 pm Steve, “The biggest threat to Boris winning a GE isn’t enthusiasm for Labour, it’s lack of enthusiasm among Tory voters.” There’s plenty of enthusiasm out there. We’ll lose the sort of establishment Tories over this, maybe, but going full Michael Corleone on the rebels will play nice with the sort of floating voters who voted to leave, BP and kippers. One of my recurring views about most of the Conservatives is that the wets are massive fucking losers. I don’t just mean that they’re a waste of space. I mean that they can’t win elections. I believe the Cam/May era was a wasted decade. It’s like there was quite a lot of sentiment on Twitter today that is best summed up as “I’m not a Tory voter, but I have a lot of respect for what the rebels did”. Pissing those people off is no loss. So, the wet rebels are basically a waste of space. What they bring into the party is lots of warm and fuzzy but no votes. And shifting towards being a nasty party will get back most of those kippers. My guess is that the lefties and liberals are going to be in for a real shock when they find out that most of the public are much closer to what they think of as UltraHardRight. Arthur Teacake September 4, 2019 at 2:33 pm @MBE 1:57pm: 1 Farage has a choice: follow the agreement and risk being betrayed to some degree, major or minor; or contest all seats and maybe prevent the election of a government that would have delivered Brexit. This is a no-brainer. 2 If Boris isn’t prepared to eject these failures in the cabinet and the parliamentary party, the country will do it for him, and he knows it. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t at least thinking about a serious purge. He probably has at least some concern for the future of the party. 3 Nonsense. Farage’s appeal rests on a somewhat credible promise to get us extricated from the EU. 4 Farage’s impact in the Commons is at present of no interest to him or his supporters. It doesn’t matter a damn if the Brexit party gets zero seats. All it has to do is achieve Brexit. Mr Ecks September 4, 2019 at 2:48 pm Once Brexit is in then both TBP and UKIP need to recast themselves as– preferably one–anti-globo- elite anti leftist anti-migrant takeover Party. Tim the Coder September 4, 2019 at 2:54 pm Diogenes (September 4, 2019 at 1:21 pm) BiG I was under the impression that the UK is trying to leave the EU No, not at all. TBTB allowed themselves to be manoeuvered into a referendum a few years ago, and have been desperately trying to pretend it never happened ever since. Just goes to show why you should never consult the proles eh? Leave it to experts….etc. This has unleashed a once in a lifetime transition (per country), where the people notice how greatly they are tricked lied to and despised by their rulers. We are the people” all over again. UK will only leave the EU if the people win and the parliamentary traitors, frauds and troughers lose. It’s not looking too promising right now, but I haven’t despaired yet. Boris is a fan of Churchill, not Chamberlain. Whether he planned it or not, he is now firmly committed to a side, no more fence sitting. He must deliver a clean Brexit or face personal political failure. The Leave campaign would continue without him. On the upside, Cummings is no fool. There is presumably, a cunning plan milord. Getting the cockroaches in the open seems quite a good start. Tim the Coder September 4, 2019 at 2:57 pm The HTML filter stripped out my sarcasm indicator. Sorry, will use something persistent next time. Bloke on M4 September 4, 2019 at 3:33 pm Tim the Coder, “UK will only leave the EU if the people win and the parliamentary traitors, frauds and troughers lose. It’s not looking too promising right now, but I haven’t despaired yet.” We’re going to leave. The sort of polling that Brexit Party hit under May would see the Conservative Party almost wiped out in an election. They’d have such a huge wedge of their vote removed, they’d end up with lots of 2nds, maybe even 3rds behind BP. Look at the past 12 years since Lisbon. Have the lies, insults, fearmongering, bullshit and delay done much at all to change the public? A few points maybe, but not much. It would take a decade or more of fighting to undo it, if they even could. Bloke in North Dorset September 4, 2019 at 3:40 pm “Having lost the vote, they changed their tune, suddenly Leaving actually meant lots of other things that coincidentally seemed very like staying in the EU – being in the Single Market, accepting EU laws and the ECJ, being in the Customs union. And the thing that they had just months previously defined as ‘Leaving the EU’ was some terrible thing that the ‘Far Right’ was trying to ‘impose’ on the UK.” And the narrative in the Remain supporting MSM and BBC quickly became about crashing out. That’s got to qualify as some of the most egregious priming we’ve seen in any debate. Bloke in North Dorset September 4, 2019 at 3:44 pm Nigel was on Chopper’s Brexit Podcast last week. He said that when he told the meeting of PPCs that they may be asked to withdraw for the good of the country they cheered. The good of the country being defined as no deal. He also said he doesn’t trust Boris not to bring back May’s deal with minor changes, but will work with him to get no deal. PJF September 4, 2019 at 3:45 pm Steve: Rather different scenarios, no? Except in the basic fact that once a particular thing has been delivered you are no longer needed to deliver that thing. Voters may give Boris some credit but they’ll primarily be looking at what the parties are offering for the future. Steve September 4, 2019 at 4:24 pm BoM4 – One of my recurring views about most of the Conservatives is that the wets are massive fucking losers Theresa May couldn’t even conserve the definition of “woman”. PJF – In this case, it runs t’other way. Labour and the Libs will pick up votes in a pre-Brexit election that they’ll never win in a post-Brexit election. (Especially from the normally apathetic yoof vote) A lot of potential Tory voters will go with Farage. Boris might still win, but I wouldn’t bet money on it. Who do you think the British electorate would trust as the best people to govern post-Brexit Britain? I reckon it’d be BJ, Saj, Priti and Dom, no contest. Nobody else would look even remotely credible. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 4:27 pm @BiND That’s interesting, did he say something about the risk (as he would see it) of a post-exit deal being struck? Or what leverage he would have to stop it? @Ecks My personal views on the desirability of Brexit are very close to a few others on here, notably John Galt and BiND often say what I’m feeling. If I’m interested in probabilities and the motivations of different parties, it’s because I’m interested in what’s actually likely to happen and try not to let my hopes cloud it. There are some smart cookies on here to discuss what the most likely outcomes are, since we largely agree on desires (and to the extent we do not, there’s little chance of anyone being persuaded either way) I tend to stick to facts or abstract ideologies rather than tub thumping for what I want. In the run up to some of the previous Brexit dates there were some overexcitable posters on here who thought they just needed to watch the article 50 clock tick down and hold a big party, if I was a pessimist for pointing out why I didn’t expect it to be so smooth then at least I was a realist… Bloke in North Dorset September 4, 2019 at 4:54 pm MBE, No, he’s interested in one thing only, a clean Brexit. It was implied that he won’t stay in politics once that’s happened. It was quite clear if there’s any sort of deal there’s going to be 650 TBP candidates. Jim September 4, 2019 at 5:03 pm “So, the wet rebels are basically a waste of space. What they bring into the party is lots of warm and fuzzy but no votes.” But the warm and fuzzy did the important job of making being a Tory MP socially acceptable, so they get all the nice invites to drinks parties etc. And not getting shouted at by the BBC presenter whenever they get interviewed. It smoothed their way in Liberal Establishment-shire. They didn’t fancy the Rees-Mogg treatment – scumbags accosting their families and vandalising their property, and being called names for the terrible crime of standing up for your principles. Basically for the last 20+ years the Tory party has been like one of those kids with no mates, no personality, no interests of their own and no ability to stand up for themselves who constantly sucks up to the cool kids in the hope some of the cool will rub off on them. It never does, the cool kids still think they’re losers and the other non-cool kids despise them too for being arse lickers so won’t let them join in with them either. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 6:22 pm @BiND I was talking to a guy who’s a pretty senior businessman on another discussion forum last night and he’s usually pretty switched on. His feeling was that pressure from industry would push for a deal that looks something like the WA within a couple of years of No Deal. Accurate a view or not, it did get me thinking about something that’s seldom discussed – even Brexit Day itself only marks the end of the beginning. In fact whether we leave with a deal or not doesn’t change the fact that the long term relationship with Europe hasn’t been settled. There are years and years, probably decades on the Swiss example, of negotiations and compromises to come. On the basis that Brexit is a process not an event, and its degree of “cleanness” is going to be subject to change and challenge for many a moon to come, I’m dubious of Farage taking a long and quiet retirement. Though I can accept the possibility he might want one… PJF September 4, 2019 at 7:08 pm Who do you think the British electorate would trust as the best people to govern post-Brexit Britain? I reckon… Don’t confuse yourself with the British electorate, Steve. I agree with your reckoning but I don’t for a minute project that onto das volk. They’ve expressed some WTF preferences just recently. Seem peculiarly keen to give socialism another go. Once Brexit is in the bag, northerners will flood back to Labour. Steve September 4, 2019 at 7:10 pm MBE – sounds like the CBI needs to have its wings clipped as per the trade unions under Mrs Thatcher. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 7:26 pm @Steve Boris certainly wants a free trade agreement and the EU is likely to want to stick some extra stipulations onto that. Other MPs, even among Leavers, want to go deeper. The idea that Brexit Day completely disentangles us from Europe looks rather fanciful to me, and while some industry voices will be calling for us to rejoin, even the less stridently europhile will be calling for some additional arrangements. Deal or no deal, I can’t see anti-EU voices thinking “the job is done, nothing more can possibly go wrong, time for me to leave the field”. To be honest they went a bit too quiet post referendum day and it turned out that politicians were quite incapable of implementing the result, or perfectly capable of the requisite duplicity to ignore it. Steve September 4, 2019 at 7:46 pm MBE – Yarp. Can’t disagree. We want businesses to succeed, but the CBI has too much political influence and uses it in ways that are antisocial and illegitimate. (Phil Hammond in particular behaved more like a paid lobbyist than a public servant – holding secret conference calls for CEO’s where he boasted about undermining Brexit, agitating for unlimited taxpayer-subsidised migrant labour, etc. No doubt some handsomely remunerated directorships coming his way) Big Business is just one interest group, one whose preferences shouldn’t get to override small business or the desires of the public. You’d think we’d got tired of this shit with the East India Company. Pcar September 4, 2019 at 8:59 pm Lessons for Johnson on defeating EU Three Great British Wartime Deceptions Germany’s military has become a complete joke Germany is a busted “bravado” flush, Johnson must recognise this and kick them hard Pcar September 4, 2019 at 9:00 pm Redwood has picked up the “Queen’s Consent” point. I”ve mixed feeling about this is a road to explore, though I’m intrigued to learn that apparently the Government has refused Queen’s Consent from time to time, so refusing it wouldn’t be unprecedented. On balance, given the undemocratic behaviour of our MPs, Lords and Speaker; Johnson should use any means possible to Leave on 31 October “How do you want the government to proceed?” http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/09/04/how-do-you-want-the-government-to-proceed/ Two questions: 1. Could Leave peers filibuster the bill until 1 November? 2. What happens if the PM is mandated to seek an extension to Article 50? As I understand it, every member state has to agree to it, or it is denied. Since, as at the time of seeking any further extension, the UK would still be a member, could BoJo turn round and, acting on behalf of the UK Government, veto the extension request that Parliament might have mandated him to seek? So far as I can tell, that wouldn’t represent a breach of the nasty little Bill they’re trying to push through. On the other hand, no doubt it would bring forth yet another legal challenge from the unelected Gina Miller. Strange world when Greta Thunberg and GIna MIller get to tell the rest of us what to do. Bloke in North Dorset September 4, 2019 at 9:29 pm @MBE, I think I’ve said it on here so apologies for the repeat if I have … WTO is the lowest base for trade and is the starting point for lots of trade deals. Most economic blocks accept that trade deals are an improvement, even if politics gets in the way. Even with a clean break we’ll want a deal of some sorts with the EU. It would be easier to do that before we start getting too far out of regulatory alignment in the sectors where a trade deal with them makes sense. The car industry springs to mind. EFTA/EEA strikes me as a good holding position while everyone calms down, although I don’t claim to have any deep understanding of those agreements. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 9:49 pm @BiND Plenty of rational, reasonable people agree that EFTA or thereabouts is a good place to aim for but at the moment none of the politicians seem to be gunning for it (Labour were probably closest but seem to have pivoted towards a referendum with a view to remain). I don’t think pressure to rejoin/stay in the EEA, at least as a temporary position, is going to go away – but that would be absolute anathema to Farage. On the other hand your post is almost a carbon copy of what the businessman I was talking to wanted (and he was strongly pro-leave at the referendum). Pcar September 4, 2019 at 9:53 pm @BiND Leaving EU and joining EFTA/EEA is another version of May’s WA BRINO No Deal is what Cameron Gov’t’s little book of terrors & campaign alluded to and what we voted for. Pcar September 4, 2019 at 9:58 pm Corbyn is an absolute joke, not that his wretched party deserves anything better. Having been consistently anti-EU (even a fool can be right sometimes) he’s now bent on exploiting the situation to get himself inside No 10 without the inconvenience of an election (although last week he wanted one – keep up at the back). But Parliament is itself a collective joke; it chose to mandate the people to make the decision of whether to leave or remain in the EU (it is a simple question) but having done so, didn’t like the result so is trying to prevent the result being implemented (in the best EU tradition). Shadow Justice Secretary, and general lump of incompetence, Richard Burgon had a shocker of an interview last night when trying to explain Labour’s non-existent Brexit policy. Guido felt it was our duty to broadcast the car crash. Could he make it more obvious he only got to where he is today because of his uncle?… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE4Ap_ABrPw Sanity: Michael Howard on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk48CH-SDIk If the PM is required to “seek” another pointless extension, then I guess it’s down to how hard he tries. He could ask for a 1 minute extension, the EU would refuse, and he will have honoured the requirement to seek one. MyBurningEars September 4, 2019 at 10:29 pm @Pcar “No Deal is what Cameron Gov’t’s little book of terrors & campaign alluded to and what we voted for.” Everyone is being disingenuous here. Remainers say that voters weren’t warned, but this was always at the forefront of Project Fear as you correctly point out! But can you not accept that the official Leave campaign pooh-poohed this and argued that a new trading arrangement with the EU would be negotiated? I know for a fact not all Leave-voters wanted No Deal, though some clearly did and even those who didn’t had been warned it was a risk. It seems odd to judge what Leave voters hoped for based on the direst warnings of the Remain campaign instead of the sunlit uplands presented by the campaign they voted for. Pcar September 4, 2019 at 10:56 pm @MBE Everyone is not being disingenuous here. Leave claimed which: “Would” or “Could”? Both relied on EU being rational and doing what was best for all. Instead EU decided to punish UK and everyone else in EU too. EU and our MPs & Lords have let their mask slip and revealed they don’t care about mere voters. Their own status and power is all that matters . When Ted did a Boris …It is instructive to go back to 1972. During the debate on the second reading of the European Communities Bill, the then Prime Minister Edward Heath deceived Parliament over fisheries, and finished by saying that the current Parliament could not continue, in other words there would be a general election, if he did not win the vote. … Heath was in a hurry: he had to give the required notice to leave EFTA and he wanted to join the EEC by 1 January 1973 because if it was delayed another year, election time was looming. The Norwegians wanted to continue negotiations well into 1973 as they felt the Common Fisheries Policy was unfair and illegal (which it was). Heath would have none of it, writing to the Norwegian Prime Minister telling him to keep silent over the consequences of the CFP. As a result the Norwegians negotiated alone, and did not join the EEC. Government papers released 30 years later showed that Heath felt fishermen were irrelevant. It was only 27 years after the end of WW2, during which the fishing industry suffered higher casualties than any other industry, and Heath was happy to finish them off… Heath lied to Parliament and UK to join EEC, and lied again in 1975 to keep us in EEC. Johnson should use this as a compelling reason to implement Clean Brexit on 31 October 2019 . History through a distorting lens Won’t be buying Pcar September 4, 2019 at 11:02 pm Labour for months, years “We want a GE now”. Offered one and “Not now, we might lose” Sir Keir Starmer: Tabling General Election Would Be An “Obvious Trap” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Npb_rr-JEpI Yeah but no but yeah but. When it comes to making up its mind about an election, Labour is Vicky Pollard “…Senior members of Labour’s Shadow Cabinet are unrepentant and clearly have no intention of delivering Brexit at all. Dawn Butler, with a straight face, said that “if anyone doesn’t hate Brexit, even if you voted for it, there’s something wrong with you”…” Labour – The Red Raving Loony party BniC September 4, 2019 at 11:47 pm “He could ask for a 1 minute extension, the EU would refuse, and he will have honoured the requirement to seek one.” The bill includes the text of the letter he would be required to send (wouldn’t surprise me if that was helpfully drafted by the EU themselves), they really are taking the piss with this one. The timing of EU announcements on no progress etc could just be taking advantage, but seems more like a coordinated strategy, at the very least it proves Boris point about trying to negotiate with your hands tied and the other side knowing that BniC September 4, 2019 at 11:51 pm Could Boris (or someone in the Tory party) call for a vote of no confidence in the govt. forcing the opposition to either vote for him or potentially trigger a GE anyway. Pretty sure Boris could make a good case he doesn’t have the confidence of the house and ask Queen to suspend parliament and call an election, as a new leader isn’t he supposed to demonstrate he can command the confidence of the house in order for it to be official anyway? Boganboy September 5, 2019 at 12:11 am If I was Boris, I’d just refuse to implement any bill requiring a request for an extension. After all, Parliament has the numbers, but he’s the government. Parliament must then pass a vote of no confidence and replace him with someone else. But Brexit is coming. I think what the parliamentarians really want is for Boris to be forced to implement the extension bill. Then they have an election and point out that they really wanted to leave but he’s the evil remainer who stopped them. Pcar September 5, 2019 at 12:51 am Boris Johnson calls for a after MPs* pass bill aimed to prevent no deal ‘Put up or shut up!’ IDS mocks Corbyn as Labour prepares to bottle general election vote Hammond and other remoaner Tories and ex Tories (eg Soubry) are as “frit” of a GE as Labour – they don’t want to lose their cushy job. Constituencies need power to recall and trigger by-election if their MP expelled from or leaves party, or betrays manifesto * MPs – anti-democratic, naive, selfish traitors – traitors as they support EU not UK Pcar September 5, 2019 at 12:55 am Kwasi Kwarteng: Tory Rebels Were Wrong to Defy Government https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1aHyncTO88 “Wrong” is to mild; see: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7424525/STEPHEN-GLOVER-Philip-Hammonds-defiance-given-Jeremy-Corbyn-lethal-weapon.html Edward Lud September 5, 2019 at 7:55 am Hm. Someone tell me where I’m going wrong: BoJo cannot command a majority in the House. He says he wants Brexit by 31.10. On both bases, he should therefore resign and allow the fact that no one else can command a majority to ensure the place descends into its final death rattle chaos thereby running down the clock to the end of October. And what now of the proroguation? (sp?) Mr Ecks September 5, 2019 at 8:53 am The issue now is the dange of a split leave vote. Otherwise the traitors are finished. TBP rightly wants No Deal and BoJo wants a deal. He likely reckons that with the remainiacs and HoC traitors finished and a working majority then he can re-do a deal with the EU minus the rest of Treason May’s turds. He might be right and if the EU won’t accept go No Deal. But it is a big gamble to split the leave vote. If this is the master plan it is a piss poor one. MBE–Now it stands revealed–you are either remain or a very prodigious fool. Pcar September 5, 2019 at 11:57 pm @Edward Lud I think Johnson became PM believing EU would agree a FTA with no poison pills. He’s now been rebuffed and is angry & flailing. Denying Royal Assent (as Blair did) to remainiac bill now seems only option and ignore msm hysteria. I still believe he should have prorogued from day 1 as PM to 1 November. Why did Leave lords not filibuster until 1 November? MBE–Now it stands revealed–you are either remain or a very prodigious fool. Agree Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.