I’m bored with this already.
And I’m absolutely insistent that the uncertainty is damaging the economy more than any of the possible actions would.
I’m bored with this already.
And I’m absolutely insistent that the uncertainty is damaging the economy more than any of the possible actions would.
Yes but then you know fuck all about it – next
Newmania, are you a bot?
Or just obtuse?
Itellyounothing, Newmania is definitely a bot of the Violet Elizabeth variety.
Can’t live with him, not allowed to feed him feet first into the wood chipper.
sigh….its the details – the position of albino Bunter and his braying frauds is that they know everyone`s job better than they do
Of course they fucking don`t
I probably shouldn’t be so rude though – sorry , just keyboard bravado
Don’t apologise you treasonous Facepainting fuck. But after your scum mates grab for tyranny is out in the open –the only issue is which way is it best to vote to fuck you finally.
The jurist Ivor Jennings remarked, in the days before joining the EEC set parliamentary sovereignty on a collision course with the sovereignty of what became EU law, that parliamentary sovereignty was such that if parliament wished it could legislate* to ban smoking on the streets of Paris.
It may yet turn out that banning no-deal Brexit is an attempt to prove him right (I’m substituting Brussels for Paris).
* enforcement being recognised as a different thing.
Its simple isn`t it – just ask the people if now they see what Brexit actually is and knowing what remain is which they want.
Why is it a problem – the Polls of course
There is no mandate for this and worse still Buner the cunter is quite likely to force a GE in which those Parties who support No Deal get fewer votes by those who non and support a further vote – but still force us out of Europe
I start to wonder if everything is going to shit , we have got racist abuse back on the football terraces the IRA tooling up for a firework Party Trumps poodle ;lying like prep school boy who didn`t do his Latin ..its pathetic
Have you people absolutely no sense of shame ?
What an interesting comment M’Lud. And so apposite for our times. They could indeed. Without reference to the wishes of the electorate who installed them in that position.
Worth remembering that both the major parties were elected on a platform to deliver the result of the Referendum within the life of this Parliament. Not leave with a deal but leave. The likelihood of No Deal was a central part of Remain referendum campaigning. So Remainers can’t say leave voters weren’t warned. (Although they do, of course, repeatedly)
The polls Facepainting fuck are written by leftist scum for leftist EU crawling shite like you.
In any GE then you are fucked mate–the ONLY danger is a split Leave vote. That avoided we will serve you lying treasonous cunts up your own innards for breakfast.
Something for you to ponder, Mr Newmania. The people you despise were a majority in the Referendum vote. If Parliament fails to deliver on its undertaking to deliver the result, What price Parliamentary democracy? What legitimacy have any of the other laws it has passed? If Parliament can ignore the people then the people can ignore Parliament. And it’s those laws that protect you from the people you despise. There may be very dangerous times ahead for people like you.
There has to be a GE. BoJo can’t go on with minus 27 and a pack of traitors. But he wants a deal. Now if he wants Treason’s WA –then he is a fatal fuckwit and it is over. But if he wants a real deal then after a successful GE he can call the shots on the ESpew. Unlike the TreasonCunt he won’t sit in a windowless room for 4 hours waiting on the EU’s leisure. They can then do a real deal or fuck off.
If BoJo wants a real, decent deal–the kind that should have been put in 2016–without that cunt Treason May doing her betrayal–that is fine. With a GE won the EU will know the game is finally up and will have to deal and accept that –or it is NoDeal. But a arrangement is needed with TBP. An actual decent deal would not be a problem with TBP. But BoJo deluding himself that “they’ll all come back on the day” would be a fatal conceit. The Tory brand is now too poisoned to trust without TBP being in the picture too.
I am astonished how Brussels gets off scot-free. All the blame lies squarely with Brussels. If they had sorted out a trade deal with the UK, no backstop required, no problem (of any magnitude) with leaving. But they refused, purely to cause trouble. Brussels is again the cause of strife. Which is why we should leave.
Having used the ticking clock as a continuous threat, how likely are they to stop the clock? Especially as they say we must have a plan. Except that any plan but theirs is unacceptable. Grrr!
“just ask the people if now they see what Brexit actually is and knowing what remain is”
This is NOT Brexit, you worthless dribbling fool.
Yes, yes, it was pointless responding as the whole post was clearly provocative trolling drivel.
NN–They are scum being scum. The blame is with Treason May and her gang. Which is why she needs to spend the rest of her life in jail.
Can Boris and his Cabinet resign as the government and therefore not have to send a letter to Brussels asking for an extension? There presumably not being time for Parliament to decide who else to make PM, nor could they agree on who it should be either, given the Tory bloc would vote against all candidates?
Jim–There are lots of stuff he could have done. But a GE seems to be his main strat. It is a good enough Idea –so long as he doesn’t split the vote or listen to pollster cockrot. Per Guido some pollsters have said the Tories could win by 60 seats outright. They told Treason that in 2017.
If he does a pact with TBP remain will wish they had never been born. But is he that smart or is it to be all about saving –or trying to–the Tories. He must know that if he cocks it up then its goodbye Tory Party.
The polls sucking remains dick we can leave for Facepainter to cream his kegs over. Remain –like their Satanic sponsor–are all about lies and deceit. From Project Fear to their bogus marches and petitions.
My point was geared also to the EU-ers, Mr in Spain. There are two sides to the outlawing of a clean Brexit.
if the EU-ers refuse an extension beyond 31.10, then they have broken parliament’s newly made law.
Or has parliament thereby broken its own law?
I confess I haven’t got a scooby.
Re the Lords voting to prevent a clean Brexit, isn’t there a convention (the Salisbury Convention?) by which they will not interfere with a manifesto pledge by a governing party?
Whoever might now be said to be in government, whether Tories, or a buggers’ muddle of Tories, Labour and LD, didn’t all three pledge in their election manifestos to leave?
@M’Lud… They appear to have pledged so to do, but now appear to be rapidly back-pedalling over the meaning of “leave”.
Personally I feel that, now that Boris has been given the opposite of a VONC by parliament, and is thus reinforced in his premiership, he should go back to Her Maj and request that she prorogue parliament immediately, until 1st November.
Boris is –I think- is aiming that Jizz will have to call a VONC after saying that he would when the POS Surrender bill is passed. The bill itself–as remain liars say–means that Parli can tell the EU to fuck off if they don’t like its orders. But the present bunch of EU cocksuckers will NEVER defy their Satanic master. But after a GE a HoC with a decent Leave maj can and will tell the EU to get tae fuck .So–with such proviso– the Surrender POS is NOT the end of the world and can be repealed easy enough.
So I think Jizz will double down over his treachery and still try to refuse a GE. He is likely already finished and that would extinguish even any tiny embers remaining.
At that point BoJo can say “This is a coup–I have behaved impeccably but now extreme measures must be taken”.
I don’t like what is happening but the remain gang are being backed into a corner where most decent Britons will vote against them. But that is for nothing if 1–BoJo can’t get a GE or 2-He allows the Leave/Democracy vote to be split via having no arrangement with TBP.
What would happen if the Surrender Bill becomes law and the Prime Minister refuses to send the surrender notice to the EU?
Anyone know?
I don’t think the polls are being manipulated. Rather they depend for weighting on past voting patterns that are changing fast.
The last started with Corbyn , who nobody liked, opposed to May who only political obsessives knew, hence her lead in the polls. It ended with Corbyn, who nobody liked, opposed to May, who very few liked, hence the close result. It was an unpopularity contest which Corbyn narrowly won.
A contest any time soon would have an unpopular Cornyn opposed to a popular Boris. And Boris would have the use of Cumming’s polling that worked very well for vote leave.
Also Boris after the election would have support from the replacements to those nominally in his party who have been working to undermine Government policy.
What remains of course is to engineer an election.
Jim,
“Can Boris and his Cabinet resign as the government and therefore not have to send a letter to Brussels asking for an extension? There presumably not being time for Parliament to decide who else to make PM, nor could they agree on who it should be either, given the Tory bloc would vote against all candidates?”
Having read and heard a lot about this in recent months my take, FWIW:
The PM can only resign if they have someone to recommencement to HM as a replacement. If there isn’t one then the PM becomes a caretaker PM and by convention doesn’t do anything other than keep government running.
This is what happened after Callaghan lost a confidence vote and asked the Queen to dissolve parliament. Its also why Brown continued as PM long after he lost the election and even had to ask Cameron and Clegg to speed up their negotiations.
FTPA means that parliament gets 2 weeks to try to form another government after a NC vote so the PM can then recommend a replacement, if not the PM can ask for dissolution and then set the election date on their own terms. That’s what Remainers are really scared of when it comes to a NC vote and they haven’t agreed a GNU.
The FTPA also means that the PM can’t threaten their own party by making any vote an effective confidence vote as Major did over Maastricht.
And amusing thought experiment:
If Boris manages to organise a confidence vote in himself he doesn’t have the power to then call a GE. However it would be amusing to watch Remainers scrambling to effectively stop him or come up a GNU, which would only work under Corbyn, at which point lots of MPs go in to melt down. Without a GNU in place would parliament organise itself in such a way that it passed a vote of confidence in Boris as a way of stopping Boris having the right to choose the election date? Would they dare to put Corbyn and, more dangerously from a tactical point, John McDonnell in power?
Newmania: this sh*tstorm is solely because leaving has been delayed and delayed and delayed and delayed. If we’d left in July 2016 none of this would have happened and we’d be three years into building a new relationship with the rest of Europe. Every time you delay removing the gangrene there’s more to remove.
jgh–Logic has little effect on the lying treacherous cunt. Traitors have to betray. That is all you need to know about him. Cure? Conversion to decency? Persuasion? Nothing short of extreme measure would have any effect on him..
Jim, I wondered about that as well. I don’t see what is stopping him, apart from the fact that the process has to play out, so I imagine that a vote of no confidence will happen sooner rather than later, possibly once the House sits again in October, after conference season.
Thing is, there’s a table knocking about that illustrates what the likely voting intentions are for the Remain blocs within the House, with regard to forming a new government that has the confidence necessary. If it’s correct, then the only way for that to happen is under some non-aligned leader, but nobody to know who it is.
So, with conference season looming, and a load of Conservative MPs having had the whip withdrawn, that process of finding said leader just got whole lot more complex.
Said leader has to hold some sort of Remain alliance together, and form a legislative agenda for the next session.
At the same time, Johnson can push on with a domestic agenda, with a more coherent party, minus the rebels. Seems likely that his speech earlier this year, February?, would form the basis of that.
The result would be that come mid-October, the Conservative Party has a clear policy direction, whilst the rest of the rebel alliance is still mired in squabbling, and may not have a clear leader who would be able to form a government.
Under this scenario, the requirement to select a Remain leader from candidates across the parties, who now include the expelled Conservatives, seems likely to fuck Corbyn/McDonnell up good and proper, and possibly the entire Labour Party as well.
And one possibility is that the Speaker is that Remain leader.
More broadly, in any subsequent GE, I’d expect that left-ish parties hold central urban constituencies, centrists the suburban, and everywhere else is right-ish, with a large shift towards the left-ish in the south-east, although that could take a couple of cycles to work through.
jgh
No it is because a non binary question was put to a load of people who did not understand what they were being asked as a simple yes or no
If you think it ends when we are out ,wake up .We have ten years more of this at least and now you have an angry vocal well organised pro Europe movement
It will never be over because having the fate of the country decided by Nigel Farrage will never be right
In fact the whole system needs to burn down quickly
Of course all of the shenanigans assume that the EU will accept the request for an extension, a reasonable position given the EU’s signalling. But ….
When May asked for the extension she made it clear that she would be passive and not interfere with the workings of the EU or try to block any changes or new laws and regulations. There’s nothing to stop Boris going there and warning that if they accept the extension we will be a bloody minded as possible and make their lives living hell wherever we can.
Dream on Facepaint. There is indeed rising rage but it is against treasonous garbage like you and your EU masters. But keep on rubbing your dick with the “polls” telling you YOU are the future. Hunker down in your bunker Motherfucker–but keep the pistol and the can of petrol handy.
Newmania – I’ve given some thought to this, and can authoritatively state that you’re talking bollocks.
An In/Out referendum was the only method by which the European question would ever be decided, because it is indeed a binary choice. Lots of adjacent issues, but the core issue – do we want to be part of this experiment in dissolving the nation state into a shit reboot of the Holy Roman Empire – is just as binary as the gender spectrum.
The other reason we needed a referendum was because of market failure in our political system. We were lied into the EC, and every subsequent integration from Maastricht to Lisbon was wangled via deceit and constitutional double dealing.
The Tories in particular have been trying to split the difference for decades – “we want to be in Europe but not run by Europe!” – much like an unfortunate skiier who finds himself legs akimbo and his nuts being abraded by passing clumps of frost. It was never a sustainable position.
Since we decided the European question and you lost, the only question now is: will the political establishment step out of the way of the Brexit express, or get blatted by it?
I’m cool either way.
BiND–if BoJo asks the cunts for the time of day he is as good as beaten. I still think there must be more to this. He has lined the treasonous shite up in one big Parliamentary turd. But he needs the GE–then we can see the Facepaint Fuckwit Fellowship off for good. I find it hard to believe that all the weeks entirely predictable events were not taken into account. You can have far too much regard for legality. Shite like Bercow has none.
No it is because a non binary question was put to a load of people who did not understand what they were being asked as a simple yes or no
Way to dismiss the opinions of an entire country. I have more confidence in people, I think most of them had at least a reasonable idea of what they were being asked and the consequences of their choice.
It will never be over because having the fate of the country decided by Nigel Farrage will never be right
I must have missed the party where Furher Farage dictated we leave. I do remember though, that we had a referendum and the people decided…
In fact the whole system needs to burn down quickly
That’s where we’re heading. You may not like the outcome.
into a shit reboot of the Holy Roman Empire – is just as binary as the gender spectrum.
Careful, you’ll drag NiV into this. Not sure I can handle him and Newmania on one thread…
I still think there must be more to this.
Hope you’re right, Mr Ecks. On the face of it it seems like a disaster. Do you see some rabbit waiting in a hat somewhere?
Steve–nor is –as the Facepainter lies–remain an ever-growing glob of soft slime. The reverse in fact as their antics drive everybody decent or with some regard for their and their kids future to join leave.
Look at ZaNu . Yes, Jizz and co are vile Marxist shite. But that doesn’t alone account for their collapse. I have spoken to numerous long time Labour voters who are done with Jizz and his EU dick-sucking. I give the polls little credence but the ones showing Labour down the shitter concur with my own observations.
NiV now infests the Samizdata blog.
He/she/xir is still full of piss and wind.
Good for us, unlucky for them…
Not sure I can handle him and Newmania on one thread…
I think that would cause a black hole to form.
PJF–Nothing about the weeks events was not absolutely predictable. The treasonous vote, rebel scum, Bercow thinking he is God.Are not just BoJo but Rees Mogg and Cummings so thick as to have no more plan than appealing to proven traitors? Esp after they way they played the bastards on Tuesday.
The Surrender POS can easily be overturned by a decent new HoC after a GE. If the POS passes then Jizz has no more excuse to run from a VONC–he says. If he does–then the little cred he might have left is gone. And I think BoJo would be justified in kicking off emergency measures to get a GE.
That is my guess. Johnson is not as thick as he made out and the 3 of them will hardly want to go down in history as Brexit-losers who were too weak to stop Treason Mays dirty work from killing UK democracy. Why would they take such a job on such terms if ruin and humiliation was the only possible outcome? They could have just swallowed Treason May’s shite in June 2018 and gone down in history as run of the mill traitors.
the core issue – do we want to be part of this experiment in dissolving the nation state into a shit reboot of the Holy Roman Empire
Unfortunately Steve, the question on the ballot paper was not
” Do you like the bats flapping around in some bloke called Steve’s noggin or not ? Yes or no ? ”
We were lied into the EC, and every subsequent integration from Maastricht to Lisbon was wangled via deceit and constitutional double dealing.
Uhuh… your first statement is a myth the jolly combo of Tony Benn and Enoch Powell did not fail to tell us we would all be in chains by now ..a lot and it did not stop much since despite the fact no-one seems to be able to come with much to which they object ( besides foreigners ) and the EU disburses very slightly above 1% of our annual Nation State spending .
Where I agree with you is that it is shame that the racist intolerant right did it have political representation . I would have loved to have seen Nigel Farrage actually face …”knowledge” a thing he avoided throughout his political career.
I have long thought that our constitution is now a rotting corpse …
@ecks
“An actual decent deal would not be a problem with TBP. ”
1) Don’t think so, their view of a “clean” Brexit seems to be WTO only. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
2) Farage doesn’t trust Johnson, as is well known.
3) What’s the mechanism by which TBP could hold Boris to any promise of a Farage-approved deal only? Certainly Farage won’t be invited to take part in the negotiations.
Re point 1, I think you’re right that Farage would be ok with some kind of post-Brexit free trade agreement. But the “deal” under discussion, and what Boris wants (indeed what he has been mandated by Tory members to seek and the only thing there is time on the clock to negotiate – a FTA will take years so won’t be ready by 31st October) is all about transitional arrangements. I don’t think Farage will stand any kind of transition since it means the UK continuing to follow EU rules for a period.
If Farage sticks to his “pure” Brexit guns, I can’t see how a pact can be made. And without a pact, the chance of another hung parliament with a remain-backing majority increases. As a Brexit supporter this is extraordinarily frustrating. Does anyone think Farage might look around, realise that by running candidates everywhere he is basically throwing his toys out of the pram and risks throwing away the biggest victory he’s ever had, and ever could have had?
He’s delusional if he thinks TBP are going to get anything more than 5 MPs (the most likely number without a pact is zero) and be influential in the next parliament, they can only possibly run as a “spoiler” to the Tories just at a time they have a leave-committed leader!
Anyone who wants to leave the EU obviously owes Farage a massive debt for the lifetime he’s put into this, but if he buggers this election up because of an obsession about the “right kind of Brexit” for him then I’m not going to be in a mood to forgive him.
Facepaint–before you top yourself Adolf style–put the Luger down the front of your pants and pull the trigger a few times. When your sad corpse is found it will give the investigators an extra laugh how you managed to miss your tiny dick with half a dozen shots at point-blank range.
Newmania – I’m sure if I could discern a single fact or argument in that word-slurry, I’d disagree.
Chernyy_Drakon – I wonder what a Niv/Newmania synthesis would look like.
Probably that spider head monster from THE THING, only it’d be skittering around declaring that Jean-Claude Juncker is ACTUALLY a beautiful woman.
I also have nightmare visions of Labour negotiating EEA membership with the EU then backing remain in a EU vs EEA referendum. Although EEA would be many people’s ideal version of Brexit, or at least their ideal “starter Brexit”, I can imagine Farage backing remain on the grounds that EEA isn’t proper Brexit anyway…
And if he would bite the bullet of backing EEA in that situation, because although less than ideal it at least takes us out of the EU, then he ought to be doing his damnedest to let Boris win the next GE because any transitional arrangements Boris seeks will surely be “purer” than eternal EEA membership.
I said in this place that Theresa May was a fucking terrible idea. I remember being told she was a safe pair of hands or something. So anyway she lost the majority which meant the Remainers took control of the HoC and here we are.
Whatever Boris does now, whatever the result is, I don’t blame him. Gove made sure he couldn’t be PM when he needed to bluster us through leaving the EU. Now it may be too late.
Particularly problematic is that 3 years ago we all would’ve, with grumbles, accepted a reasonable deal. Now the middle is excluded, Remain aren’t prepared to compromise at all and neither are Leave.
So basically it’s fucking Gove’s fault.
If you want to assign blame MBE–point to the treacherous cunts of the Tory Party.
I want Brexit and will consider how to vote when events develop. But If I have to vote Brexit on terms set by Tory Turds –the WA pie of turds minus the backstop only–I also will not be in any kind of forgiving mood.
As for a pact–Farage knows the score. An assurance from Johnson that he will be removing ALL the traps set by Treason May a s a p might have to do as against defeat.
Your 5 seat estimate is cockrot. A split vote might be that bad. But a deal would get them 60+ ZaNu seats in the north–and without any loss to the Tories. Both BoJo and Nigel need to be executed if they can’t cut a deal.
We should hear more from you Ian. Understand if it is a job sensitive issue.
Newmania – I’m sure if I could discern a single fact or argument in that word-slurry, I’d disagree.
Have you considered learning to read ?
Poor Facepaint–so near to treason ground zero and yet so far. Your precious EU are still going down the pan and you with them.
Ecks, no not any more. Will try to stick around more.
Anyway, the thing about the Surrender Bill/Act is that it seems to set a whole new legal precedent of Parliament being able to legislate for a particular person to be required to perform some particular specified action. I’m surprised that such a law can even be legal or constitutional.
Still, while it is, I hope that after the GE Boris passes a law requiring Mr Speaker to stand in Whitehall naked while piss is poured all over him and then shove a variety of large objects selected by the public on Twitter up his rectum. Since apparently now the parliament can do that.
Also the next government with a majority will repeal the FTPA on the first day, guaranteed.
@IanB
“Particularly problematic is that 3 years ago we all would’ve, with grumbles, accepted a reasonable deal”
Dunno. ERG would likely have rebelled anyway, if not over the backstop then something else. Remain supporters would definitely have hung on for a new referendum (Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid, SNP, many Labour backbenchers). Labour frontbench would likely have used any Tory deal as a chance to hit the government for political reasons – “disastrous Tory deal” even if it was similar to what they wanted, since they knew there’d always be ERG opposition and a chance to defeat the government on its landmark policy.
I do agree that the extremism has grown on both sides – there was speculation after 2017 that May and Labour might “meet in the middle” with an EFTA/EEA type arrangement but that’s clearly not feasible now.
Difficult to see the facts in that latest screed from newmania. You have to wonder how many people he speaks with
MBE-
I was in favour of just leaving without A50 but realistically expected some kind of deal. It just had to bearable. I think even the ERG were willing to do that. Remember Steve Baker was in DEXEU and says they were on course for negotiating a FTA before May begged Merkel for something much worse.
@Newmania
If you’re going to quote people, could you use italics, bold or even good old-fashioned quote marks?
It makes it easier for everyone to actually follow which part is your response.
Thanks
Oh so its the ERG’s fault is it MBE. It is Treason May’s fucking fault and Tory trash.
Nor do I worry too much about sides. The polls –run by lying middle class leftist fucks who make Facepaint look honest–are bigging remain up. But there is not a massive middle class of traitors in the UK. 3 or 4 million tops is my guess. That many willing to grab their ankles for leftism and the EU is a disgusting and disgraceful amount. But not enough to turn the trick for evil. A GE will clear the cunts out.
@Steve
Now that is a truly terrifying thought!
@Newmania “a load of people who did not understand”
Whereas you, of course understand everything, floating on your cloud of conceited arrogance and disdain for the masses.
Let me guess, if the great unwashed vote as you think they should, they are wise and just and it’s a victory for democracy?
FFS
Your ‘load of people who did not understand’ is the electorate.
Are you saying that no GE or referendum result should ever be accepted because people aren’t as clever as you?
You really do come across as an arrogant twat.
Andrew C–He is an arrogant twat and nothing more. He and his fellow traitor class members are full of the same arrogance. This is where MBE is full of it. There are many millions who will vote to hit back at the scum MPs coup. The only issue is getting the channels for the anger working together. Get that right and Facepainter and his ilk will be tasting their own vomit for the rest of their lives..
@Ecks
Oh there’s plenty of blame to go round. But if Farage throws Brexit away then he’s getting his fair share of it from me.
“Your 5 seat estimate is cockrot. A split vote might be that bad”
Well that’s exactly what I’m talking about. A split vote. My point was “what does Farage think he has to gain from running without a pact as a spoiler?” Because the answer is definitely not “electoral glory, loads of MPs and a big voice in parliament”.
Boris has very little room to manoeuvre in terms of things he can offer Farage. He is boxed in now so that he can’t and won’t run as a No Dealer, and he cannot simply acquiesce to any demand Farage chooses to make. He can give a gentleman’s promise that he won’t be negotiated into any elephant traps, but Farage would surely treat that as worthless.
Farage has flexibility. He won the biggest vote that ever mattered, which is the referendum itself. He is free to retire with that glory. He is god-king of TBP and they will happily run or not run at his discretion alone. The decision really is in his hands.
newmania – the person who doesn’t want anything to change from the 22nd june 2016. New – my arse – meet the new boss same as the old boss.
Boris can run as a No Dealer, or a No Deal if no deal we want can be had-er. The only reason he can’t do that now is the sodding parliament.
He’ll win big in a GE. Farage just needs to keep out of his way. TBP like UKIP is only any use as a threat against the EUphile Tories. At this stage of the game it’s basically useless.
@IanB
I think the FTPA has got to go. Tim N did a piece on it though I don’t think he knew originally where it came from and why:
http://www.desertsun.co.uk/blog/10032/
But ironically something that was meant to make hung parliaments more manageable by encouraging coalitions turns out to also make them ungovernable by getting rid of confidence issues and leaving floundering zombie governments that can neither govern nor be replaced by another party in a better position to govern nor even call an election to sort the mess out.
Actually an entirely predictable scenario if they’d wargamed all the situations the FTPA might affect – even without Brexit, not hard to imagine eg a fractious parliament split roughly into three competing factions, where the largest faction is a struggling minority government that can’t get legislation through but nevertheless tops the polls, and the other factions can neither find a way to work together nor would they tolerate an election at which they faced heavy defeat. If the FTPA was only supposed to deal with the 2010-15 scenario they should have time-limited it. If it was supposed to deal with all situations they should have put a lot more thought into it.
Bloke in Spain raised an interesting point in Tim N’s thread though – just repealing the FTPA doesn’t restore the royal prerogative it replaced, does it? So you actually need a replacement not a simple repeal.
MBE-
The Royal Perogative issue is interesting but IANAL and all that.
I think this is a classic example of why the idea that we should trust MPs to be experts is so flawed. Over and over they don’t think things through. It was a sticky tape bodge designed purely to hold the Cameron/Clegg administration together and clearly nobody thought very hard about it at all. They should “wargame” every law, but they never do. Hilarity ensues.
There’s going to be a scramble after the next GE to depower the Speaker as well, as it turned out that the only restraint on his/her power was a sense of moderation, and then they got Bercow on the big potty. So far as it appears, his rulings cannot be challenged by anyone and he effectively has carte blanche to write the Unwritten Constitution. Which is pretty insane really.
IanB – Dunno.
I feel indebted to the Europhiles for lifting up the carpet to demonstrate the degree of rot eating away the floorboards. It’s a pain in the arse because of how big a job it is, but better to know sooner rather than later.
We have enormous problems in our political system that go way beyond Brexit. The institutional class has been plotting a course towards socioeconomic disaster for a long time.
If it wasn’t the EU, something else would’ve brought things to a head (as the fuel protests nearly did in 2000, or the Yellow Vests have in France, or the populist wave in Italy, or the extradition thingy in Hong Kong).
The elite wants you impoverished by their eco-lunacy and outnumbered by their migrant pets, with endless pettifogging rules to make your life a misery, and escalating social madness so you can never tell which perfectly reasonable opinion today will get you unpersonned as a sexistracisttrannyphobe tomorrow.
Brexit is almost a cosmetic issue in comparison. There’s a kind of Eloi/Morlock struggle going on in the West, and Brexit is just one front.
Also btw, I watched PMQs yesterday and thought the “spontaneous” round of applause for the lunatic virtue signaller in the red turban was a particular new low for the House.
It looks more and more like a Student Union every day.
New GE motion tabled for Monday. Jizz’s “conditions” for a VONC will be met by the Surrender shite being “law”.
I think it likely Jizz will renage. But we shall see.
@MBE
Does anyone think Farage might look around, realise that by running candidates everywhere he is basically throwing his toys out of the pram and risks throwing away the biggest victory he’s ever had, and ever could have had?
He’s delusional if he thinks TBP are going to get anything more than 5 MPs
He doesn’t want MPs. He wants Brexit. And May’s deal minus the backstop is BRINO, which will be intolerable and used as a springboard to send us back in, on worse terms.
@Chernny D – the coherent, punctuated bits are the quotes. The punctuation-free mental diarrhoea is Newmoronica’s own.
@IanB – I also blame Gove.
@Ian B
He can, and I think will, run as a “No Deal if no deal we want can be had-er.”
He can’t run as a pure No Dealer. It would suggest his entire shtick through his leadership campaign and premiership to date is a lie – that he wants a deal, is desperate for a deal, but not so desperate he’d sign just anything so he needs to keep No Deal on the table to have any negotiating leverage.
It isn’t just parliament blocking him from switching to No Deal as first choice. He’s looked a lot of people in the eye and promised them he’d try his utmost for a deal. There are plenty of reports suggesting he genuinely wants one – would be a diplomatic triumph if he pulls it off after all.
To switch now means losing a further swathe of back benchers and a huge chunk of his cabinet (most of whom backed May’s deal). And risks alienating moderate Tories in the polls – though most Leave supporters seem happy enough to No Deal, a significant minority are not, and with arithmetic this tight he’d surely be taking a big risk to exclude them.
People who think a pact means you can just add TBP and Tory vote shares together are forgetting they aren’t completely transfer friendly (left wing leavers may never vote Tory) and that going No Deal to get a pact would push out voters who will only accept leaving with a deal. Not everyone votes primarily on getting Brexit (I have since 2009 but I’m basically an extremist).
Why would Boris win big in a GE? He has, for no good reason that I can see, caved on the surrender bill. I can’t think of a reason to trust him with a new lease of political life. I expect Nigel feels the same.
MBE-
Yes I’m the same kind of extremist but never expected to get the extreme. That I said here and elsewhere at the time to “just ring up the EU and tell them we’ve left” didn’t mean I thought that would ever happen.
Leavers are going to have to accept some kind of Deal at least being potential. Which is after all where we and the ERG all started from. The problem when we saw May’s “deal” was that it was hopelessly surrendertastic and not leaving at all. IANAL and I Am Not A Diplomat either, but I would be seeking a deal in which there is no transition and we move straight to the FTA, with payment of outstanding dues (the £39Bn) dependent on that. Getting that cut a bit would be a win too. Avoiding a transition avoids the ECJ and backstop, etc.
You’re right about the TBP+Tories thing as well. Some people would rather boil Phillip Hammond’s head than vote Tory, it’s tribal.
PJF, he hasn’t “caved” on the Surrender Bill. Be realistic.
He’s currently in approximately the same position as Richard Dawkins at a Creationist convention trying to get a vote in favour of Evolution. Politics famously is the art of the possible.
@MC
Right, but my point is he can never get enough MPs to implement Brexit or even to influence it. That’s just FPTP elections for you.
So what’s he playing at if he decides to run? What can it achieve?
Yes he might be worried that Boris is going to flake out and BRINO but if explicitly remain-backing parties, which now include Labour, get most seats then Brexit is dead. If you’re a pessimist (particularly a demographic one), dead for a generation or maybe even forever.
Running a spoiler campaign with no possibility of success in its own right feels a lot like an act of spite or stupidity. To be clear – I get the value of having a threat, that if you do X which I do not like, then I’ll do this thing that ruins it for both of us. Carrying that threat out, though, after all the work he’s done to make Brexit possible? That I’m not sure I grasp. And I’m certain I won’t forgive it easily if we end up remaining as a result.
MBE, I hang around the daily telegraph website a lot. There are some people it appears who believe TBP can actually win an election/get enough seats to form a coalition.
I myself think this is hopelessly unrealistic.
He can’t accept the EU’s shite WITH the backstop. I think that is a given.
Does anyone know if the rest of the cockrot actually traps us beyond escape or can it all be X’d off once we are out?
@IanB
Farage has lost enough FPTP elections to know what’s realistic, you’d have thought. I suspect privately he must have been disappointed the European elections didn’t end with a clear 40-45% or so for TBP so he could be confident in his claims Brits were happy to vote for a hard Brexit. I fear remainers are going to vote very tactically in the polls and the Lib Dems have been detoxified over the old tuition fee row. Lots of Tory/LD and Tory/Lab seats where this will make a difference. On the other hand, most TBP voters are pure ideologues. Can they be as pragmatic?
I read a rumour Farage wanted another bash at taking on the speaker in Buckinghamshire – if this is true he really hasn’t learned his lesson and maybe he is far too optimistic about his party’s chances.
Ecks-
The basic problem is the same as Hitlery Benn’s bill; it stays in force until such time (whenever) as a replacement deal is negotiated which for the EU is going to be somewhere between A Long Time and Forever.
That’s why in a big way it’s not really the backstop, it’s the open endedness. That’s the bit any negotiation has to kill. The way out is to just do a FTA and not have a transitional deal at all, so the Deal becomes the Final Deal. If that involves, say, 2 years for implementation, fine. Just get a final deal signed.
MBE-
I think at some point Farage (and a distressing number of his fans) started to believe his own publicity.
There’s a good video of Dominic Cummings giving a talk to marketing types on YouTube about how he won the Leave vote here-
https://youtu.be/CDbRxH9Kiy4
There’s a very interesting thing about Johnson and the Big Red Bus at 29:00, but the interesting thing for our current topic is that Cummings’s research showed Farage very popular with a minority and a turn-off for the majority, which is why he was excluded from Vote Leave. The whole talk is interesting, go watch.
My concern is that Nigel has a deep yearning to get elected to the Commons, especially as a party leader, and that might lead him woefully astray at this crucial moment.
@Ian B
I think you have your finger on the problem as hardline leavers would see it, but what could Johnson do about it from here?
He clearly can’t about-face and ask for a two-year extension to get a deal done… Nor can a FTA be signed by 31 Oct or even the end of Jan. Anything he signs up to would have to be transitional.
IanB, Boris decided not to try the Crown Consent approach. He decided not to use the Lords to filibuster. He caved, apparently in order to dare Labour into an election before November. Not going to happen. It’s pathetic.
@Ian B
That is indeed a good video and I’d recommend it. The lack of any love lost between Farage and Cummings may also be relevant to any attempts at a pact. I believe Cummings would advise to reject as he knows the electoral harm it would do if the Tories seemed to be in Farage’s pocket (compare to the Miliband in Salmond’s pocket adverts the Tories ran for analogous reasons) and vice versa the presence of Cummings in Johnson’s camp must make Farage very dubious that any agreement would be honoured to Farage’s satisfaction.
This is why my focus has been on “what will Farage do as a free agent with responsibility for his own actions” – a formal pact seems far from likely, an informal “nod and wink” that the Tories won’t deliver BRINO rather more likely, but I’m not at all clear whether Farage would take it.
MBE-
At this stage, I would suggest it translates into a time limited transitional. I’d suggest 2 years. Having waited 3 already, that’s bearable, if Johnson wins a majority he can hold off a GE till after that. So it’s “we finalise the deal in 2 years or its No Deal” with a transitional during the 2 years based, I’m afraid, on the WA with some tweaks. No payments from us until the FTA is signed (within the 2 years).
If he gets a decent majority he can thus not be held hostage by either the Wets or Spartans. Key problem I’m suggesting isn’t the Backstop at all, it’s the open ended WA.
PJF-
If I were BJ and DC, I’d be painfully aware that nothing is going to be practically possible without a good parliamentary majority. Pushing Corbyn into a GE is the best way forward.
“IanB, Boris decided not to try the Crown Consent approach. He decided not to use the Lords to filibuster. He caved, apparently in order to dare Labour into an election before November. Not going to happen. It’s pathetic.”
If Jizz refuses an election then no Royal Assent for the Surrender POS. Johnson could piro’ them from Monday to 31/10/19 and put police/military on standby to handle any trouble. Ask for volunteers–I’d turn out for a chance to beat the shite out Facepainter and his clones.
But if –as PJF suggests–this was the great DC’s only plan then there is no reason not to vote TBP. Because anyone that dumb should not be allowed out.
I think Monday is crunch day–Jizz renages and then it is shit or bust. If all we get is JRM whining about the Constitution in the HoC then that was the plan and it is bust. If some sort of decisive action kicks off then we have a chance.
BTW, petition to sign. The signatures map is slightly interesting to look at too. I know, waste of time, but you’re online already and it takes like 30 seconds.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/254329
PJF – Boris decided not to try the Crown Consent approach. He decided not to use the Lords to filibuster. He caved, apparently in order to dare Labour into an election before November. Not going to happen. It’s pathetic
Yarp.
If the full extent of his master plan was:
* Allow his enemies to take over the (non-) running of Brexit
* Hope they’ll be shamed into allowing a general election at a time that would suit Boris
Then he’ll deserve to lose, and Dominic Cummings will have to get “genius” taken off his business cards.
I’m hoping there’s a brilliant ace up BoJo’s sleeve and he makes me eat my words, because otherwise the events of the last 24 hours suggest he doesn’t have the audacity to win.
Presumably tho’ RA would have to be given by Monday to make the POC law. So what options then once Jizz refuses? It would make his own position worse as his cowardice and knowledge he’d lose would be on display. But then only some kind of emergency powers use seems sane. BoJo resigning from his own gov invites the cunts to form theirs.
if THIS was Cummings plan then he was colossally overrated and TBP it is. A Tory Party run by such bunglers has NO chance.
@Ian B
Not sure that’s on offer from the EU, since they want some guarantee about the Irish border situation in the event of the next stage of negotiations failing. So it can’t just be “we agree by this time point or there’s no deal”.
This is the main reason I’m highly sceptical Johnson can get a deal even if he tries his best – I don’t believe the terms he (and parliament in its current state) would find acceptable are available.
Johnson seems very assured that he can get an acceptable deal provided the pressure is back on the EU but I think he is misreading them – when they talk about “preserving the integrity of the single market” they mean it, and besides there’s a major incentive to play hard against British leavers so as not to encourage les autres.
MBE-
In which case, No Deal But My Word We Tried. But I think the EU are deliberately over-egging the Irish Border thing. They’re not that bothered about the Irish, it’s just a good tactic because they know we’re sensitive about it.
Also I’m actually assuming this after a GE with a majority. Nothing is acceptable to the current shower of shite in parliament, we already know that.
If the EU won’t drop the backstop–I think they will–then No Deal is all there is and no reason not to get a pact with Farage.
But this Monday caper worries me. If it is law and Jizz won’t go for VONC what’s the next step. They must–for Christ’s sake–have wargamed this far. Was “then we quit and become the laughing stock of History” what they think is acceptable?
Well, in any battle, both generals have a plan but only one at most works.
The danger with a Vote Of No Condiments of course is the risk of Ken Clarke leading a “caretaker government”, the chances of which just went up since he got the boot from the Tories.
@IanB
If Johnson wins the election (big if) then “No Deal But My Word We Tried” seems overwhelmingly probable. Hence my irritation with Farage over this pact or no pact business. At this point, the only thing Farage can do is kill Brexit stone dead. Even if he stands aside it might be too late to save it. If his ego leads him to standing candidates everywhere in a vanity spoiler, and this tips the HoC to a pro-remain majority, he’ll have undone a lifetime of work. If Boris scrapes home – nobody realistic is predicting a landslide – we will get Brexit of some flavour, at least. But with the EU being as inflexible as they are, it’ll probably be hard anyway.
Then the next battle arises when “the people didn’t vote for hard Brexit, they thought Boris would get a deal like he said” and “our poor benighted industry can’t survive this global trade-war-triggered recession outside the EU” and “if we win the next election and defeat No Deal Boris there’ll be a referendum on rejoining”… That’s the battle that’s worth fighting. Not trying to stop us getting out just because you’re worried the terms might not be hard enough.
I don’t think we’re looking at a landslide, but Boris could win a comfortable majority which will take away the parliamentary hostage situation and which he can use to repeal the FTPA and get rid of the slug in the Speaker’s Chair.
It’s interesting that the discourse is already being set up (not least by the noxious Daily Mail) that if we don’t leave on October 31st due to the Remainer shenanigans, Boris is “breaking his promise”, when of course it will be because he was kneecapped.
And if Corbyn doesn’t take the bait, and if I were Boris, I’d then go for refusing Royal Assent for the Surrender Bill, but that’s just me.
MBE–Cockrot.. Do you really think the British people are watching these cunts handing their nation and future over to globo-elite scum and worrying about fucking trade deals? A stone cold specimen like you maybe. Based on the remain drivel you give credence to. But not many others I think.
Remember that TBP already WON Peterborough and 6000 ZaNu postal frauds and a remainiac EC who didn’t care and did nothing was all that stopped that.
@Ecks
Ahh the penny is dropping I see. Still think they’re going to try Queen’s consent? First refusal of royal assent since 1708?
As for “no reason not to get a pact with Farage” – plenty of reasons. Cummings/Johnson don’t want to look like they’re in Farage’s pocket. Farage has ego. Farage cares about more than the backstop but there’s no way Johnson can give Farage a veto over anything that does get negotiated (literally no mechanism for this) and Farage has no reason to trust Johnson’s assurances that only a Farage-friendly agreement will be signed. Most of all you’re missing the timing of everything – Johnson intends to run the GE first then negotiate with the EU after. If he wins and the EU say the backstop is required after all, so Johnson goes No Deal, then Farage would love it – but that would be after the election not before. Johnson is not planning to run the Tory Party campaign as the No Deal campaign. This makes a pact more fanciful.
“Well, in any battle, both generals have a plan but only one at most works.”
That’s true Ian but if the puny and pathetic plan–as it so far seems– is the best Cummings and Mogg–both supposedly very sharp–can do it might as well be TBP from now on.
Ecks, have you got a better plan? Damned if I know what I would have done differently.
Also, MBE, Queen’s Consent and Royal Assent are different things. Any Bill which infringes the Royal Perogative- which this one clearly does- requires Queen’s Consent. Johnson could have refused to give that (as Blair did once) but Bercow then ruled, bare-facedly lying, that the Bill did not affect the RP so did not require QC to proceed.
Royal Assent is the last step after being passed by both houses.
@Ian B
I’m not saying a Johnson victory is impossible, even if TBP runs it is possible albeit harder.
But I am saying it’ll be difficult and there’s a chance of losing. Bigger chance if TBP runs.
There are lots of uncertainties, not least differential turnout of leave and remain voters (have to say it favours remain, not least because the referendum was won by getting people who almost never vote to come out and put a cross by “leave” yet these people are unlikely to show up again) and willingness to vote tactically (critical in many consituencies and likely to be at an all-time high this election if it turns out to be a single-issue affair – again, bad for Tories).
The situation in which I would have maximal incandescence with Farage (though don’t think I wouldn’t be furious at others either):
1 Narrow defeat for Boris
2 Many constituencies where TBP vote significantly larger than Tory margin of defeat
3 Remain HoC majority leads to UK staying in
4 Years later, EU officials’ memoirs reveal there’s no way they could have made a deal with Johnson due to lack of time/backstop vital/Ireland/need for open-ended transition if further negotiations snagged.
“As for “no reason not to get a pact with Farage” – plenty of reasons. Cummings/Johnson don’t want to look like they’re in Farage’s pocket. Farage has ego. Farage cares about more than the backstop but there’s no way Johnson can give Farage a veto over anything that does get negotiated (literally no mechanism for this) and Farage has no reason to trust Johnson’s assurances that only a Farage-friendly agreement will be signed. ”
If Johnson wins the GE he has no more reason to kiss EU arse. He was –second admittedly– to resign over Treason’s deal and that is before she made it worse. It is not likely that he will sign up to a POS. So I can’t see that as a big problem. It would be a big problem for Johnson down the line tho’ so that is another reason he wouldn’t. He IS likely to sign up to PC shit but that can be a fight for another day.
“Most of all you’re missing the timing of everything – Johnson intends to run the GE first then negotiate with the EU after”
He has no time except by breaking his 31/10/19 “promise” anyway.
.” If he wins and the EU say the backstop is required after all, so Johnson goes No Deal, then Farage would love it – but that would be after the election not before. Johnson is not planning to run the Tory Party campaign as the No Deal campaign. This makes a pact more fanciful.”
If the EU say Backstop stays he has no fucking choice but a No Deal Campaign mate.Nor can he do any better than Treason with the scum having taken no deal off the table?
@Ian B
Oh yes I know that difference. I’ve been trying to explain this to the diehards who keep posting about how magic Boris was going to stop the nasty surrender bill. On one site I had someone tell me of course Boris would do it because it was no big deal when Blair blocked royal assent (this wasn’t a person with a law degree… Think they must either have misunderstood a tweet or a Guido story). I’ve had Ecks tell me that Boris would almost certainly block it as both Queen’s consent and royal assent are tools in his locker and he could use either. Hence my retort now it seems to be dawning on him that neither is going to happen.
There was some serious discussion about the Queen’s consent issue (think BiND brought it up originally) but I reckoned it was unlikely since it is poorly understood in the general public, like prorogation, and isn’t a terribly good look from the parliamentary democracy point of view. My feeling was that the optics were just too risky in combination with the prorogation stuff, and besides, letting the bill pass would give an excuse to ask for an election. And refusal of royal assent was clearly out of the question even though some people were bigging it up as an option/threat.
Ian–Bercow would have been arrested on treason charges and sent to Belmarsh or wherever incommunicado before he got the chance. Under terrorism provision so he can be held without recourse to lawyers for maximum periods. 14 days is it? He would be rearrested and charged with anything to ensure he would not be out this side of Xmas. If they can stitch Tommy Robinson up Berc can be so stitched.
With that little turd down QC would be still in play. The subs Speaker is NOT a Bercow style arsehole who thinks he is God I understand.
Indeed Bliars Civil Contingences Act would be hovering over the entire HoC. They like tyranny when they do it and they passed the crap. How fitting it should be used on them.
And then the House would be piro’d from next Monday until the 5th Nov. Troops would be standing by UK wide and too much remainer shit and I would ask Leavers to turn out in the streets and fight them if needed. Meet lawlessness with lawlessness.
31/10/19 we are out and a GE next. a broadcast to the nation asking them to back me against attempted coup plotters. I’d win.
When Bercow gets out he would whinge in the courts. I’d pass the same word as has been put on Tommy Robinson. He might get a bit of compo.Maybe.
MBE I entirely agree that Farage’s only power now is to decrease the risk of Brexit.
However the FPTP maths at the moment- before a campaign- shows something around a 60 seat majority for the Tories. Boris, a great campaigner and Cummings, a monster organiser, can probably improve that.
Plus we already know the maths about Leave vs Remain constituencies. The metropolitan elites are cursed by their lack of coverage in constituency terms, which is why right now they are terrified of a GE. They have previously depended on people they despise voting tribally with them and cannot rely on that any more.
Corbyn couldn’t win last time against Theresa May actively turning off the Tory core vote and appealing to nobody new, or anybody really. The last set of polls I looked at showed as I said about a 60 seat majority for Johnson. He and DC are probably looking at the same thing.
It’s whether they can get a GE or not that matters. I think I’m not as pessimistic as you about a GE, but I agree that Farage could wildcard the thing, although I don’t think he actually has the power to do that. The majority of Tory Brexiteers will vote Tory.
I’m seriously wondering whether the Lib Dems are about to eclipse the Labour Party, also. Labour genuinely appear to be dying on their arse and the Libs are more pure in their Progressivism without the scary Marxist shit (they have the scary Proggie Woke shit to the max, but that’s what the Metropollocks want anyway).
IanB
Signed.
The map is interesting, esp. when compared to the “do not prorogue” petition. Far more from the English regions and less from London/other metropolitan bubble wankers.
@Ecks
“If the EU say Backstop stays” – some of them have been saying that already but it hasn’t stopped Johnson yet. His claim and apparent belief is that if he takes it to the last moment, with no alternative available except No Deal, they’ll cave regardless of their public utterings. He believes if he goes over the heads of the Commission and talks directly to leaders they’ll accept his alternative plans (which he is keeping close to his chest, apparently to avoid them being shot down). So no, nothing the EU say before will force him to run a No Deal campaign. It’s an “I think they’re bluffing about the backstop and we can get a deal, but otherwise we will No Deal” campaign.
The rest of your comment is just making my point for me – you don’t seem to think Boris would have the time by Oct 31st to make a deal and you trust him not to sign a “surrender treaty” even if he does. In that case can’t you see the catastrophe for your cause if Farage blocks this from happening by running a spoiler campaign and remain wins the election instead?
MBE–Buggeroff with your “look” and “optics” cockrot.
The fucking “optics” of allowing the EU treason gang to take over the UK and hand us over to the EU “look” a fucking sight worse.
As for the QC and RA –BOTH could have been used. 1708? WHO GIVES A SHITE? VS EU control over the UK?. You must be joking. Bercow has wiped his arse on the HoC . So time for another Precedent to be set. Suddenly the fucking Speaker DOESN’T have that power anymore. And both QC and RA are back in play. Our enemies bend the rules but we are Col Blimp? Nothing personal; but fuck off. It is all made up anyway. We can change the rules also.
Silverite-
Couldn’t help but chuckle at the Do Not Prorogue hotspots- Oxford, Cambridge, Islington… and Brighton.
And a weird little anomalous cluster in Bristol West, presumably around the University.
“It’s an “I think they’re bluffing about the backstop–AND MORE– and we can get a deal, but otherwise we will No Deal” campaign.”
That would be OK–so long as it isn’t bullshit. I agree remain winning =disaster. But TBP can still take many Labour seats the Torys can’t. Those who wont vote Tory will vote for TBP –esp as it is a one time issue. And this is the fucking 2nd Ref as near as dammit and those who voted last time–I believe will return to vote again. Also lots of former remainers who now see what trash they were in bed with. A deal with Farage could and should still be struck. On the basis of your 1st para in your post above. And a load of TBP MPs will help keep BoJo in line.
@IanB
I’m not as sceptical as Ecks is of polls (he seems to believe they’re a conspiracy!) but I worry this campaign could depart from the initial polls just as the 2017 one did. Aside from the chances of Boris putting his foot in it and the polls changing, my first fear is that polls are notoriously poor at predicting differential turnout. With Brexit date pressing, remainers are likely to be more motivated to turn out – leavers may say they’re motivated too, but history generally hasn’t borne this out (excepting notably at the referendum itself).
The seat prediction models are rather sensitive to assumptions about how vote changes in individual consitituencies reflect national trends picked up in the polls. The Tories benefit greatly from their opposition being split between several parties. My second fear is that an unusually single-issue election will lead to unprecedented tactical voting and if so there’s a risk of Tory annhiliation even on current polling numbers!
It’s unlikely to be that bad, but a combination of a slight polling move against Boris (eg a cock-up, misjudged policy announcement or project fear overdrive from business and “civil society” groups) plus bad news on differential turnout plus significantly higher tactical voting would be easily enough to take Boris down – whether Labour and Lib Dems could work together is the next question, as the chances of Labour majority are real but low.
I really want Brexit done, there are too many unknown unknowns for me, and I don’t like Farage being in the mixer.
MBE
I would remind you that 2017 had the laughably bad candidate Theresa May, combined with a toxic policy suite. Johnson is affable and human- flaws and all- and already sufficiently gaffed that more gaffes won’t affect him much. The kind of people who care about his letter-box jibe won’t vote for him anyway.
Yes, it’s all highly unpredictable but I am more optimistic than you. Also, watching that talk by Cummings made me respect his abilities a lot. (I suspect he’s a much better marketer/campaigner than political strategist).
Wonder if we’re going to get a GE announcement on Monday. Very interesting (and thus inevitably scary) times.
I do agree with Ecks btw that where TBP can help is in constituencies loathe to vote Tory. In the right constituency Kate Hoey could probably win on a TBP ticket.
Also I still want to know why this is the only website on the internet that refuses to remember my name and email addy and always has.
MBE,
I fear remainers are going to vote very tactically in the polls and the Lib Dems have been detoxified over the old tuition fee row. Lots of Tory/LD and Tory/Lab seats where this will make a difference. On the other hand, most TBP voters are pure ideologues. Can they be as pragmatic?
I’m not convinced it will work that well in a GE. Its easy for parties to come across as virtuous when they sacrifice their candidate in the name of a cause when that candidate had little chance anyway, far more difficult to organise nationwide.
As well as having to make sure there’s a reasonably balanced chance for both Labour and LiBdems to win extra seats, which is going to look like 3D chess for the negotiating teams, there’s the local issues. Will Fred or Brenda Bloggs who’s been campaigning and standing for X party all their lives stand aside when told to by the national party? I’m not sure when they think they’ve got a shot at winning. Nobody who participates in politics at the local level trusts the LibDems (sorry jgh, but its true), they have a reputation of saying whatever they need to get votes, I’ve openly challenged them as liars and they just scuttled off.
The LibDems must also be thinking this is their best chance in a century to get a significantly large number of MPs that they may even become the official opposition and some of them must be having dreams about being the largest party, especially as it looks like Scottish Labour is going to be sacrificed by Corbyn. When would they give up that chance?
That said, I’m sure there will be a lot of Remainers who will be able to figure it out in their own seats and possibly a few of those “swap votes” campaigns will be set up, but without a national campaign signed off by both party executives I can’t see it making a difference of more than a couple of seats.
@IanB
Do agree with Ecks there are some places TBP can hurt Labour – but not sixty. Have a play with a spreadsheet of constituencies, using historical UKIP vote as a TBP proxy. Though there are lots of seats where we’d expect Labour vs TBP to be the main battle, the problem is TBP vote is far too uniformly spread so the Labour leads are mostly unbridgeable, you’d have thought. Would be better to have half the voters but for them to be “clumpier” – even as much as the Greens and Lib Dems (whose vote distributions are also notoriously inefficient) would help. The Tory vote in those seats is mostly negligible so a hypothetical pact wouldn’t make much difference.
Actually on the flip side, we are genuinely likely to see a Lib Dem/Green/Plaid pact, at least in key target seats. This might have an influence on a dozen seats or so.
@BiND
Agree Lab/LD pact is implausible. Swinson sees Corbyn as off-limits. At the individual constituency level, there are quite a few seats where the Tory majority is of a similar magnitude to Lab or LD as third party. Again worth playing with a spreadsheet and being aware that the Con % is lower now in the polls than in 2017 (though that’s partly due to TBP and Lab is well down too).
MBE-
TBP may be more effective this time than UKIP at previous elections since there’s going to be a very specific thing to vote on. It’ll probably be remembered as “The Brexit Election”. TBP may be effective in Labour Leave seats.
But TBP going up against Tory winnable seats and draining off Spartan votes could be a catastrophe. I must admit I have no real sense of how Spartan Brexiteers are in terms of a statistical distribution.
Just generally I hope Kate Hoey comes back into the House for some constituency. I can understand why she’s not standing in Vauxhall again but it’s a pity to lose her.
PJF / Ecks / Steve
+1
Queen’s Consent wasn’t an option due to Bercow.
Ian–Only if you accept the little cunt overstepping his pay grade. The govt could simply announce Berc is wrong and QC will need to be sought. If the foe can overstep their bounds so can we.
There appear to be no checks and balances on the Speaker, because they’ve never been needed before.
Well has any Speaker before ever decreed that QC won’t be needed? If not he is setting a precedent. Time the precedent was set that the Speak does NOT have unlimited powers. There is a first time for everything. It is all made up–WTF should we let them do all the making up.
After all if there are no limits on him what could stop the little turd declaring that we are staying in the EU?
BTW–Comment on Guido that Savid Javid has said the traitors should be let back in and Gove wants the WA back before Parliament. So this weeks perception of Boris’s weakness has his own gang trying to turn on him. He really better have something in reserve for next week.
BTW–Where’s Theo–time he put in an appearance to comment on the performance of his fucking rabble.
The Speaker gets to rule on whether QC is required, as with lots of other things. He just made shit up on this occasion. Problem is there appears to be no system for challenging a speaker’s ruling, because the whole point is he has final say. He’s sort of like the House of Commons’s dungeon master. If he says you can’t fit a halberd in your bag of holding, that’s it.
“…Gove wants the WA back before Parliament.”
It was bad sign that Gove was in the new cabinet at all. He’s a proven treacherous little cunt and Boris deserves every back stab he gets from the vile, gawky twat.
I don’t want to labour the point Ian but if nobody challenges the short-arsed cunt then he can do what he likes forever. This QC move was extending his powers into areas never before breached and BJ could have challenged him and still can. Told him “No–QC still goes to the Queen”. What’s he going to do but have a tantrum and he does that anyway.
My point again–why do we stay in boundaries when the cunts are pushing all the while? QC could turn the situ around GE-wise. Use it.
Ecks – Here’s what Saj actually said:
Asked whether there was room for redemption, the Chancellor said: “I would hope so. I would like to see them come back at some point.”
I mildly disagree (I’d like to see em fed to the pigs, Errol), but I wouldn’t read much into the guy being polite to the departed on a radio show.
Otoh, unless Boris’ Conservatives show more grit than they’ve done over the past 24, they’re going to lose the crucial Steve demographic, and probably a lot of neurotypical voters too. It’s starting to look like they’re offering another Tory pig in a poke.
Ecks- challenge him how? Specifically?
PJF- I assumed from day one that Gove was put in the Cabinet on the “inside pissing out rather than outside pissing in” principle.
Ian–You inform him by letter–“The QC is being retained by HMG”. Tell him his blatant partisanship is obliging you to place limits on him. Say he can come and see you about the matter in a (strategically sited) office. If he starts a song and dance Plod ( in the next room) comes in and arrests him on charges of treason etc and off to Belmarsh. Activate Deputy Speaker or –if he is Berc’s creature–use emerg powers to appoint a better one.
Steve–thanks for that. Guidos is not the best site for info of any sort. Does sound fairly harmless.
Just been for a walk and come back with super pessimist hat on. Boris probably never had a chance but I don’t think he’s helped himself.
He’s been played on the idea that if he gives in, which he did in the Lords, he’ll get his GE bill after Royal Ascent of the extension bill. There’s no way he’ll be allowed his preferred date of 15 October or any date before 1 November. As soon as he puts it before Parliament amendments will be added to change the date or even to change the franchise eg votes for 16-year-olds to delay it:
1. Labour want to leave him stewing in his own juices and force him in to sending the letter to the EU, which will be political suicide.
2. Other MPs who don’t trust him, probably including those who’ve had the whip withdrawn and will be deselected, will also want the date changed.
3. A worry that if he does win a majority he could then just repeal the legislation. Unlikely, but why would Remainers of any party risk it.
All Boris can do is acquiesce and send the letter and watch TBP tear the heart out of the Tories or resign and ask HM to call Corbyn and ask him to try to form a Government. Again, political death.
Corbyn probably won’t be able to form a government but he will be the effective caretaker PM and will be able to control the run up to a GE.
Of course there will be some who claim Boris should just ignore the extension bill, but that is an unconscionable breach of the Rule of Law and there can be no circumstances where that should be even encouraged. We don’t need to give our enemies any excuse to breach it in the future. That really is the end of democracy.
When it comes to a GE this is where Boris has played it badly. Not everyone is a Brexit obsessive and its not going to be a single issue GE, they never are and voters will quite rightly want to discuss other issues, especially spending. By having a spending round and saying that austerity, to the extent we’ve had austerity, is over he’s given Labour license to go out and claim “told you so” and also that they are better spenders on the welfare state, wrong but will resonate with the public.
I really don’t see any path for Boris that doesn’t end well for him or anyone who wanted Brexit.
I go back to the earlier point that the FTPA turned out to be the crux of all this. A quick bodge to hold together a coalition government for one term, look what it turned into. Legislate in haste, repent at leisure.
Civil Contingencies Act 2004–call a GE–no way to stop it.
Again–BiNd’s wiffle would suggest that DC and JRM would have known that nothing that has happened this week has been unpredictable. I cannot believe that they would even start this with so feeble a non-plan. And go down in history as fools. Hell if it is that hopeless Johnson should just piro’ to 5/11/19 say. Why not? He would have achieved Brexit at least and then any GE would be a straight fight also. TBP voters would have no reason not to vote Tory.
BiNd is another in the mould of MBE. UK taken over? Who gives a fuck –my wallet might take a hit. Thinks everybody is like him.
I think it is highly unlikely that BoJo will win a majority in a GE. Here’s a balanced assessment of the risks.
https://unherd.com/2019/09/how-it-could-all-go-wrong-for-boris/
On the bright side, we’re currently a bit like Belgium during one of its interregnum thingies: the largest and most craven shower ever to, ahem, govern… Can’t.
Currently they couldn’t agree to pass a new law against All Bad Stuff.
Theo, I distinctly remember you advising me that Theresa May was just the woman for the job, so I’m not sure I trust your instincts.
I was in Team Leadsom, remember. If she’d got the leadership we’d have had a Brexiteer cabinet, an immediate A50 and be out by now.
Sorry but Leadsom was and is a cowardly self-serving weasel who swallowed every turd Treason May squeezed out after saying each time she wouldn’t.
Nice to hear from you once more Theo–even tho the article is shite. Yes the split is dangerous. But it is another piece written by bloodless calculating turds. The idea that Jizz is going to have a good campaign on the platform of –I”ve just sold the UK out to EU ownership–now help me ratify my treason and the control of your new masters” is fucking laughable. Vast numbers gave up everything for this nation last century –but to the chumps you rub shoulders with yr fucking wallets are all that matter–no one is going to vote to save their nation.
IanB
I don’t think I ever said Theresa May was “just the woman for the job” – only that she was better than Leadsom, whom I didn’t and don’t trust at all. I also mentioned several times that May was a ditherer.
That said, I hope I’m wrong about BoJo’s electoral chances.
.
Ecksy my good fellow, I can assure you I’m genuinely angry about what’s happening over Brexit and BiND is also clearly deeply unhappy. But we are just talking about what we think, in terms of probabilities, is going to play out. Withholding royal assent, tanks outside parliament, Bercow sent off to the secret dungeon? In your wildest dreams perhaps, but not in mine, and certainly not going to happen in the real world. Sorry. Reality’s just all gone a bit s***.
Once it’s dawned on you that there won’t be any tanks, the gloom might spread to you too. If you make a list of every eventuality you think is plausible from here, then stick next to them a ballpark percentage figure for their likelihood, what are you gonna write next to “tanks outside Parliament”? 70%? 20%? 0.001%? How about “Bercow shipped to the secret prison”? “Brexit Party wins 60 seats”?
(Clue #1 – to assess the likelihood of this, open up a spreadsheet with previous results by constituency, rate the 150 or so best shots from 0=impossible swing to 1=certain gain, sum those scores and see your expected value for TBP gains. Clue #2 – if that’s 60 or above, you’ve probably miscalibrated it. Check the historic data for gains by new parties and compare, much as you hate it, to polling figures. Funnily enough the polls are normally within a couple of percent of actual results – often wrong enough that the predictions are incorrect, but not so bad as “60 TBP gains” incorrect. I can’t deny the possibility that the folks who rig the polls are in on the same conspiracy as the returning officers who rig the actual results and this is why they’re so similar, of course. But if Peterborough is not presently being represented by a TBP MP, what makes you think all these northern seats will?)
This girl thinks the GE will be on 15th October in any case.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/05/brexit-explained/
A few extracts (it’s paywall).
MBE–Yeah lets be Col Blimp while they cheat and win.
P’boro was lost ONLY to ZaNu postal fraud –a shitload of irregs exist and the EC don’t want to know. That doesn’t help but TBP won that one.
As for spreadsheets and polls–you know what you can do with them. This is NOT just another GE–it is about whether we have a democracy or not.
PF–Hope its true but can Jizza be trusted? Fuck no.
Another point against the foolery of BiND.
“Of course there will be some who claim Boris should just ignore the extension bill, but that is an unconscionable breach of the Rule of Law and there can be no circumstances where that should be even encouraged. We don’t need to give our enemies any excuse to breach it in the future. That really is the end of democracy.”
Unbelievable stupidity. Do you believe for one fucking instant that if Jiz gets in he will give one let alone two shits about the rule of law. That he will be kept from one evil action because Parliamentary Proceedure tells him he can’t or that the rules have to obeyed. As far as that upper/middle class twat is concerned Rules is a fucking restaurant.
This kind of dick-headed conventionality is why AFCs are powerless against brazen evil and end up gasping on the strand waiting for their Marxist murderers to get around to them.
PF,
I hope she’s right and I’m wrong, but I have serious doubts.
Continuity Remainers are now drunk with power. Not only have they backed the government in to this mess they’ve also managed to back Corbyn in to declaring himself a Remainer. They ain’t going to risk all that.
Keir Starmer is one of those Continuity Remainers and he and Tom Watson have played a good long game in Labour.
Perhaps with the SNP and some Labour votes they might get 15 Oct through. Even if they do, I’m not convinced Boris can win and we’ll just continue with this mess.
btw, if the Bill did not require Quuen’s Consent – similar to the earlier bill that only required May to “seek” – then surely the logical implication has to be, and Lud / other can correct me if I’m misreading it, that Boris should not legally be bound, ie he can find ways to neuter it in the performance? The difference being that May earlier chose to be bound?
And he has said clearly he will not ask for an extension, I’m wondering if that statement is connected? Did Bercow inadvertently do him a favour? Proactively declining Queen’s Consent at the current time is playing his hand early?
“is” = “would have been” (playing his hand early), obviously, in case it was ambiguous.
By not requiring Queen’s Consent it means that it does come under prerogative powers but it still needs Royal Ascent.
https://www.lawteacher.net/free-law-essays/english-legal-system/prerogative-powers-or-the-royal-prerogative.php
“Did Bercow inadvertently do him a favour? Proactively declining Queen’s Consent at the current time is playing his hand early?”
I don’t think so, PF. Bercow used his powers to have his cake and eat it. The bill is mandatory but has been arbitrarily deigned to not require Royal prerogative. Unless the government (Boris) has decided that Bercow wasn’t legally qualified to make that decision and thus it can be ignored, we’re stuffed.
.
From here:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/02/proponents-of-the-new-bill-to-stop-no-deal-face-a-significant-dilemma-over-queens-consent/
Conclusion
The proponents of a new Bill to prevent No Deal are caught on the horns of a dilemma. If they had drafted a Bill that only mandated the PM to seek an extension, the PM would be left free to refuse to agree or accept any extension in negotiations with the EU27.
But the actual Bill tries to impose a requirement that the PM either agrees to 31 January 2020 or agrees any new exit date suggested by the EU27 (as long as a motion approving the alternative date in the House of Commons is passed). House of Commons procedural rules mean that the government is required formally to approve the Bill by affirming ‘Queen’s Consent’ to the Bill at the Third Reading stage. This is because the power to agree or accept an extension is normally exercised using a prerogative power. If passed, this statute would have the legal effect, by whatever means, of forcing the PM to agree an extension to the Article 50 process would manifestly ‘affect’ the prerogative for the purposes of the relevant test as to whether Queen’s Consent is required.
BiND – Of course there will be some who claim Boris should just ignore the extension bill, but that is an unconscionable breach of the Rule of Law and there can be no circumstances where that should be even encouraged. We don’t need to give our enemies any excuse to breach it in the future. That really is the end of democracy.
Strongly disagree.
Democracy isn’t whatever a handful of rentboy-bothering twats in SW1 say it is. I believe Boris must have ample reason to “legally” refuse to put his cock on the block, because the Surrender Bill/Act was procured via constitutionally irregular means.
It’s important he frames his actions as upholding constitutional norms and the rule of law, not simply defying Parliament. But the effect is the same.
What could he do? How about try to delay Royal Assent while a judge examines the legality of how the Act came into being? Worth a try. Or similarly delay sending the letter using the same excuse. I’m sure cleverer people than me can think of multiple options. As John Bercow said, if we always follow precedent, nothing will change.
Theo – it’s important to be realistic in these situations, but the article is far too downy
I particularly loled at this:
And let’s assume that, while the Conservatives lose a handful of seats in Scotland, where they are no longer led by Ruth Davidson,
I don’t want to be unkind to Ruthie, but she’s a dumpy wee chipmunk-faced lesbian, not the bloody tartan Tory messiah. As the European elections showed, she has little to no personal impact on the Scottish Tory vote, it’s all media hype because she’s from a trendy sexual minority. She’s the Indigo Girl version of Chuka.
I also don’t buy the idea that Boris will automatically be toast just because he’s forced into an extension (tho he should fight like Hell to avoid that). Contra the big brains in the MSM, voters aren’t window-lickers. They can see what’s happening.
Most important thing is, Boris has to be seen to do everything he possibly can to deliver his Brexit promises. That’s his only plausible escape to victory.
Just following up on the QC issue above, I take your points, but now reading one or two more creative comments on Guido, this is one that sprung out, ie which suggests that, even if Boris has to play a relatively straight bat, it’s perhaps not that clear cut?
There are all sorts of variations on that theme? If (big if) Boris is determined, then we are surely still in the same place: “Power lies with the executive”?
And all of this can come later, as a fall back if Jezza remains chicken.
That’s a very interesting loophole. They forgot to tell him to accept the extension!
Great stuff chaps!
It doesn’t look good at the minute, but my feeling is that there’s another twist to the tale coming.
If Boris writes a grovelling letter to the EU begging for another extension he immediately becomes a cuckservative and a busted flush. Also, I can’t see him doing a deal with Farage. Farage too has pressure on him not to be duped into withdrawing candidates only to end up with WA lite.
As Ecks said, nothing this week has been unpredictable. The Tory rebels were never going to be brought into line. (Ken Clarke was bought by the globalists long before that word was even invented) So, have to believe that Cummings has something up his sleeve. If he doesn’t, then 10/1 on a Labour majority when the election does come is worth a punt. The Brexit party standing in all seats will decimate the Tories.
Steve,
My Rule of Law comment was based on the Bill having been given Royal Ascent. Shenanigans delaying that may or may not be fair game but some of them really aren’t helpful in the long run.
“That’s a very interesting loophole. They forgot to tell him to accept the extension!”
It’s getting wine o’clock late but I thought there was a clause that demanded he bring any response back to Parliament?
PF,
That is interesting. As I pointed out earlier, the EU has to agree the extension and they have said it has to be for a specific reason eg GE or 2nd referendum.
But as this is the EU and they are experts at weaselling out o their own laws and treaty obligations I’m sure that won’t be a problem and they’ll accept anything that means they haven’t forced a no deal Brexit and will have to own it.
“Shenanigans delaying that may or may not be fair game but some of them really aren’t helpful in the long run.”
Pathetic weakness. I sometimes wonder if we shouldn’t purge what is laughably called “our side”.
Friends like these as Lebowski put it.
HERE IS MEAT INDEED:
https://www.seangabb.co.uk/boris-johnson-with-a-bound-set-free-2019-by-sean-gabb/
If you don’t get through first time keep trying.
Ecks
Thanks for that.
And other possibilities too by the looks of it?
All of this simply proves that, if Boris is determined (and that is ultimately the key), this is still wholly within his power.
I’m encouraged that the enemy may think they have the upper hand at this stage. Sure, it means lots of discussion on the interwebs etc. But it also means that the enemy may be more likely to become complacent, potentially miss a trick, etc?
I guess we’re going to find out how serious he was by “do or die”…
BiND
Apologies if I missed your earlier comment, there was a lot to go through, but if our reasons for wanting an extension / details of accompanying letters,whatever else etc added on to all of this, are wilfully flippant and our attitude quite disrespectful, they are surely going to decline (wrt any extension). Mission accomplished?
BiND – I agree with you that it’s important the PM obeys the law. I like Eckses enthusiasm, but tanks and Tower based options won’t fly.
Given the willingness of the Remainers to play fast and loose with the constitution and go running to the courts, I don’t have a problem with Boris doing the same thing – as long as he very volubly protests how he’s respecting the rule of law etc. while doing it. There’s enough constructive ambiguity in our arcane constitution for BoJo to at least try some options, while covering his modesty with a figleaf of legality.
Refusing Royal Assent would probably be a mistake, but if it’s possible to delay Royal Assent it’s worth exploring that option. Similarly, creative compliance with the legislation.
It almost doesn’t really matter what Boris actually does (I now assume we won’t Leave before the next election, barring some minor miracle), the most important thing is him showing courage, leadership and grit. Voters will reward that, and punish any perceived weakness or backsliding on Brexit.
He’s an excellent campaigner and an unusually likeable politician, so he’s capable of winning this. Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, and Priti Patel are also good (quite unlike their Labour counterparts) so it doesn’t need to be Boris doing all the heavy lifting. I’m cautiously optimistic – but as von Schlieffen said, he must keep the right wing strong!
Gabb’s idea is not a military takeover Steve –but would do the job nicely if there is nothing else.
As for your first sentence what do you think Jizz will be assembling paramilitaries for from Day 1. Again–we can’t afford to lose.
And arresting a crew of treasonous conspirators is not tyranny if that is what they are. Bercow is helping a gang including Hammond –and others–who have been in negos with a hostile foreign power. None of that is extra-legal. Berc would get his day in court and most likely be acquitted–but his dirty work would have been stopped when it was needed to be stopped. His antics have been crucial to the plotters.
Slightly reluctant to come in so late to what has to be one of Timmy’s longest comment threads ever – except the ones when NiV posts 90% of it. One question and one observation.
Observation, the spin about the huge surge in support for Corbyn deliberately ignored the fact that he only got 4 more seats than Brown did – who, until May, was a strong candidate for worst Prime Minister ever. The jump was compared to Milliband, who suffered disproportionately from the two referendum effects, the SNP wiped labour out in Scotland where their 1.5m votes got 56 seats while UKIP, whose 4m votes only got one seat, nevertheless hit a larger number of labour marginals than Tory marginals. The pointless election by the pointless May saw both referendum effects revert to normal making the 2010, rather than the 2015 election the better benchmark. Meanwhile Magic grandpa also benefited from the Student effect as the LibDems were wiped out for lying about not raising student fees while Labour issued a different lie about eliminating student debt. The fact that May’s muppets advised an election just at the end of term where Student Unions practically enforced compulsory voting – and many admitted to doing so ‘at home’ as well as at ‘Uni’ was another factor along with failure to police postal voting that helped Labour. So basically his support likely peaked in 2017.
Second the question. If Boris can’t force a general Election, how about announcing 21 Bye Elections?
@Mark T: I don’t think the 2017 GE was somehow “structurally different” from others in the recent past. All that happened (as was mentioned earlier) is that the more the general public saw of May the more they realised she was a waxwork dummy. The only thing which balanced this out to some extent is that the majority of the country thought Corbyn was even worse.
In the 2017 GE both parties were campaigning on a fairly equal “We’re going to deliver BRExit” platform and none of Treason May’s treachery with regards the WA was apparent at that stage (least not to the general public).
So if it were just Boris vs Grandpa Death, then I think Boris would win hands down. What I don’t like is the possibility that Nigel Farage starts going mental and screws over Boris because Boris can’t openly say “We’re going to No Deal” (even if he was, which I don’t think is the case).
Even if he could do it, and I don’t think there is any mechanism to force an MP to resign except via bankruptcy or criminal conviction resulting in 1 year or more jail time, it would be counterproductive at this stage (regardless of how happy I would be to see Grieve tossed out of the HoC).
Even if the 21 by-elections magically happened, it still wouldn’t be enough. Boris is better off spending his time and energy pushing forward to a general election.
Steve,
“It almost doesn’t really matter what Boris actually does (I now assume we won’t Leave before the next election, barring some minor miracle), the most important thing is him showing courage, leadership and grit. Voters will reward that, and punish any perceived weakness or backsliding on Brexit.”
I agree, it’s looking like the only way out and even that isn’t certain. To the extent that there is any moral high ground in this battle I’d rather be fighting it from there rather than stooping to Remainer tactics. So when the bill goes through it gets Royal. Ascent and if the letter has to be sent, so be it.
Boris has enough faults without needlessly adding to them.
Weaselry.
Our enemies pull every crooked stunt the Poison Dwarf can arrange for them and can still make it fly but unless BoJo is Mr Clean-in the most destructive manner to the good cause– we are to sink to the depths. All the while knowing that if such dickheadery as you advocate lets Jizz in he will wipe his arse on all the nonsense you are so fond of.
You are dressed in your best and are going down like a gentleman are you? If this was the military I’d order you shot on the spot without a seconds hesitation.
Steve / BiND
Absolutely not.
Boris said “do or die”. After decades of Conservative dishonesty on Europe, I’m holding him to that. Otherwise, he’s no different to the pro EU dross of Maj/Cam/May.
And I’m not buying the self pitying “I’m trying my very best, honest, but all those nasty Remainers are really to blame” spiel – it’s not as if he doesn’t have the tools at his disposal to deliver by 31st October, as this thread and many others highlight: he needs to show a bigger pair of balls in simply getting this done. His prize at that point is that probably most of the Brexit Party vote reverts to him in an instant (in addition to whatever else)..
It’s a trust issue at this stage, pure and simple. And sod all goodwill – it has to be proven. Every utterance of continuing with some form of May’s Capitulation Agreement simply reinforces that point. If not even Boris can be trusted, when nailing every colour with a firm “do or die”, then 190 (years or so) wasn’t such a bad innings.
Not sure what the rules are, but if possible we should have been getting recall petitions running against the remainer leaders in the house of clowns, Benn, Cooper, Clark, Hammond to name but a few.
@Steve T – The goal post for a recall election is set at a very high bar, specifically to prevent them being used to remove an MP except in extremis and even then requires a trigger event, a petition to be successful and finally a majority vote in the recall election itself. It was a fig leaf to try and cover up the expenses scandal.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-49592410
Lots of yoof registering in advance of the snap election.
Almost certainly going to be after the uni term starts too (who knows, might be postponed to the xmas break now) but this is another straw in the wind of high motivation to vote among remain-backing parts of the electorate and a nugget of bad news for leavers.
If the next GE takes place after 31 Oct – designed so as to have the maximum damage on Johnson – you can bet Farage will be running too.
@Steve T
I’ve always reckoned defection should be on the list of triggers but it isn’t. Withdrawal of the whip isn’t something I’d feel comfortable with as a criterion – we want MPs who think for themselves rather than servilely do whatever the whips say, at pains of being dumped and their seat going to a by election should they go off-message. Governments would be too powerful if that were possible. The government today is probably unhealthily impotent but that’s more to do with a minority government being messed about by the FTPA.
The surrender bill is such an utter capitulation to the EU that I have to treat every MP that voted for it as either an idiot or a traitor, since there is no other reason.
We need an election so the electorate can kick these bastards into touch.
@JG
What I don’t like is the legislature attempting to play the role of the executive – the executive has to operate within fairly tight constraints (legal and political) but the only constitutional check we have on the legislature is really an election.
Indeed. At this rate we’ll have The Long Parliament again.
@JG
I don’t think the 2017 GE was somehow “structurally different” from others in the recent past. All that happened (as was mentioned earlier) is that the more the general public saw of May the more they realised she was a waxwork dummy.
It’s true that May has had a charisma bypass, but the real problem in 2017 was the dreadful manifesto, drawn up by Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, which seemed to be designed to piss off her core voters (and did).
The YOOF vote report is from the BBC.
The entire yoof fantasy is another remainaic pile of cock. Everybody under whatever wants to be ruled by the EU and wants Corbyn-style Marxism? They had 2 chances to vote for the above in ’16 and’17 and not enough cared to do so.
Enough cared in 2017 to block a Tory majority. If May had romped home we wouldn’t even be discussing this. There’d be moaning about what a damp squib our six months of post-Brexit freedom had turned out to be given the conditions that had been attached to it, and what the odds were of getting a long-term deal with Europe that didn’t treat us like a colony, but we wouldn’t be talking about whether Brexit will happen in October or January or never.
I’m genuinely concerned that a condition attached to getting a general election through will be dropping the voting age to 16 – been tried in Scotland after all – but I hope there’s enough logistical difficulty with that to stop it.
As expected, the BBC reports that:
“UK opposition parties have agreed not to back Boris Johnson’s demand for a general election before the EU summit in mid-October.
Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru say they will vote against the government or abstain in Monday’s vote on whether to hold a snap poll.”
On top of that Thornberry gives a star performance on QT.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=N2w0QweWlrQ&feature=youtu.be
The EU must be relishing us revoking A50. We’ll get screwed at every budget round and treaty change that’s proposed and the lapdogs will be wagging their tails.
Next step, Boris resigning in favour of Corbyn?
Perhaps it’s time for Boris to go nuclear and put down a Bill revoking A50, making it clear he’ll vote against.
When that loses he should put down a Bill for a Remain/Leave referendum.
When that loses he really does start to occupy the moral and political high ground.
@BiND
Johnson is running out of time to pull many more tricks, he’s hemmed in by the prorogation! Further to that, that looks an awful lot like a political stunt/prank. Not sure it would do his standing much good. At the moment he looks like a politician who’s overpromised, proved unable to hold his party together, and is struggling to come to terms with the way his power has ebbed so dramatically away.* I suspect he and his advisers are currently trying to cobble together a statesmanlike Plan B (or they’ve wargamed one out for this scenario already) and your proposal strikes me as unlikely to be the one they’ve gone for – looks a lot like more game-playing.
Isn’t there another risk attached, that it’s possible a second referendum might get through the House now? MPs rejected it before at the indicative votes stage. But quite a lot of things have changed – the expulsion of Tory remainers (including cabinet members) and Labour’s definitive shift to a referendum+remain position. Moreover the polls are showing ever-larger leads for remain (sorry if that makes you explode Ecksy, just mentioning it because that makes it easier for remain-supporting MPs to take a punt on a referendum, whereas they’d never want to risk it with narrow or non-existent leads). If the “Leave” option was “Leave with May’s deal” then this would be the only alternative to accepting a deal or rescinding Article 50 outright that lets this Parliament guarantee No Deal will be blocked, and the only one which could claim some kind of “democratic mandate”. That’s another potential attraction for some MPs. Even better for the opposition, such a referendum campaign would likely permanently fracture the Conservative Party – and in any subsequent election, TBP, furious at the betrayal of such a “rigged” referendum and Tory failure to stop it, would wreak sweet havoc on whatever’s left of them. Would also get Labour out of their bizarre rabbit-hole whereby they’re apparently going to negotiate a deal then campaign against it.
There would be so many temptations for so many MPs that, while I’m by no means sure that such a referendum bill would pass, I don’t see how Boris or his strategists could be sure that it wouldn’t. (Obviously they’re better at counting MP numbers than me, but it seems they even got the size of the rebellion by their own MPs wrong – until very late they were briefing that vote was going to be extremely close. And they also misjudged how Labour would react to the call for a GE. They must know there are risks and uncertainties in their analyses – Cummings certainly does anyway.)
*Arguably that’s a rather unfair synopsis, though I think even Boris-backers would admit he overpromised on the 31 Oct deadline since that was never within his power to deliver and provoking his enemies to unite against him was an inevitable risk. But even if the rest of it is unfair, that’s a common perception and – with the possibility of an election looming – voter perceptions matter.
MBE,
My comment was a bit of alcohol fuelled tongue-in-cheek banter, but you raise some good points. The reason I raised it is that I’m starting to think that No Deal > Remain >> than the chaos we have now but as we’re not looking like No Deal it will have to be remain.
But what about a Deal? In the current climate there isn’t, and probably never was, ever going to be a deal on the table that is acceptable to a majority in the HoC. Labour has taken the ludicrous position that they’ll negotiate a better deal than May did and Boris ever could, and then campaign to Remain. The LibDems and SNP have made it clear that there isn’t a deal short of BRINO they could ever support and I’m not convinced they’d support BRINO and I know I wouldn’t.
Boris didn’t over promise, he was holding a busted flush and always was and his bluff was called. He was never going to get support for his negotiating position anyway, because he isn’t trusted, even by his supposedly own side, and the opposition are never going to support him or any other Tory leader. Politics always trumps the good of the nation because in their eyes what they want is in the best interests of the nation.
Will it look like a stunt? That’s how it will be played in political London but if Boris stopped his blustering act and started stringing coherent sentences together (he can, I’ve heard him) he might just be able to sell it as in the nation’s interest and even pull another win in a second referendum or GE, assuming the HoC doesn’t revoke A50. He can at least take the position that he is acting in the national interest.
If it doesn’t work nothing is really lost and the plus side is that Remainers get to own the political chaos. Leavers can then go back to campaigning to get us out and they will be able to point to the exacting terms that the EU will extract. Remainers can hardly complain when the EU says that the rebate needs to be scrapped, for example. And then they’ll come under pressure to join the Euro and walk away from our other exemptions. How can they refuse, they’re good Europeans after all?
The Conservative Party in its traditional form is already close to death and its hard to see it reviving. In truth the dying, and constitutional crises, started in 1972 when Heath lied to get us in to the EEC and then Wilson had to call a referendum in ’75 for party management reasons. If Boris restores the Whip to those who voted for the extension he’ll just look weak and chaotic which will play in to the hands of Labour and Remainers in general, if he doesn’t restore the Whip he’s destroyed any notion of a One Nation Conservative and Unionist Party ever getting together again.
I can’t see a path to Boris winning a majority in a GE. He’s going to lose most of the MPs in Scotland and not withstanding what I said about national deals they’ll probably lose a few seats to tactical voting. He probably needs to pick up 20 to 25 seats in England, its hard to see major swings in Wales and by some accounts the DUP could lose a couple of seats. That’s a lot of traditional Labour voters holding their noses and voting Conservative.
The longer a GE is delayed, Labour are now talking January, the more likely that Boris will do something stupid. Even if he doesn’t he’ll be more at risk from “events”. Winter is always a tough time for the NHS so it will remain the centre of Labour’s campaign and if there’s, say, a major flu outbreak it will look even worse. Boris and Sajid have already accepted that austerity is over (yes, I know, we haven’t had austerity) so they can hardly fight on a we’ll spend less than Labour platform.
Its really looking like Leave has lost this battle and there’s going to be many a rant and political fight about why, but I think it will make it easier to win the war if they can get their act together when the dust has cleared.
You make one or two dubious assertions in there, MBE. For example:
“since that was never within his power to deliver”
Of course it was – prorogue Parliament until 1st November. Etc.. If you mean “whilst playing Queensberry”, that’s different.
I’m totally in favour of the above action, but given the amount of lawfare going on by Gina Miller and the like as well as the inherent bias of the judiciary against BRExit I doubt that would have gone unchallenged.
I don’t fancy a coin toss in the UK Supreme Court over whether BRExit happens or not.
@PF
Wot JG said. Just because a PM can theoretically do something doesn’t mean the political reality will allow him to do it in practice nor that it will pass unchallenged in the courts.
Besides,when I say Boris overpromised that’s actually in two respects. He has promised he would try his damnedest for a deal (sans backstop etc) with a big negotiations push in late October and also promised to leave by the 31st. In reality I don’t believe there is time (nor that the required technical work has been done) for there to be a serious chance of cutting a mutually acceptable deal, so that was likely an overpromise. Moreover that requires parliament gets a chance to consider the deal – if he prorogued til Nov 1st there would be zero chance of a deal, which would have broken the “genuine attempt at a deal” promise and if he allowed parliament to sit there’d always have been a chance they could force an extension.
If Boris had run his leadership campaign on the platform “we are coming out with no deal on Oct 31st” that might have been deliverable actually, provided he pulled out all the stops and the lawfare went in his favour (again can you be sure that it would?). But if he had said that in his pitch he would not have made the final two of the MP picks so would never have gone to the party members’ vote. Every sensible observer of the Tory leader campaign said that Johnson’s combination of “I’m sure we will have cake, but whatever we’re eating will be had by Oct 31” was unguaranteed and likely undeliverable given the state of negotiations, the parliamentary arithmetic and the ructions in the Tory party. So it has proven.