Not all that helpful

Scientists can predict risk of heart attack with 90 per cent accuracy

You have a 50% chance of a heart attack and I am 90% accurate in that prediction”.

The new technology can detect dangerous build-up of fat and scarring around the organ.

It allows medics to predict the likelihood of a heart attack over the next nine years with up to 90 per cent accuracy.

That’s more interesting than the piffle the Telegraph’s writers manage.

8 thoughts on “Not all that helpful”

  1. Do they mean, e.g. “You have a 50 % ± 5 % chance of having a heart attack”??

    Or do they mean “You’re gonna have a heart attack within the next 9 years, we’re 90% sure”?

    A confidence level in a probability seems a little strange to me.

  2. And they could be rolled out across the NHS in as little as two years.

    I’d be surprised if they could procure a toothbrush within two years, let alone a whole new diagnostic tool.

  3. I remind you, Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, that the last time I was in our local World Famous Hospital, the cardiologist quizzing me seemed to have been reading someone else’s notes, so inaccurate was he.

    “You suffer from CVD?” “No.”

    “Well, you have a stent!” “No I don’t.”

    Et bloody cetera.

  4. ‘It allows medics to predict’

    In the U.S., ‘medics’ are first responders. Emergency Medical Technicians (EMT). The people in the ambulance. They don’t do much predictin’.

  5. ‘The new technology can detect dangerous build-up of fat and scarring around the organ.’

    Called CT and MRI scanning, plus Doppler ultrasound to check blood flow… been around for at least 20 years.

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