Election Prediction Extravaganza

Have put together an election prediction spreadsheet. Just enter the amount of seats you think each party will win. Just add your name / twitter etc

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0yXTla4CeODihcyvV1VLL_DPlSxckd-MCZBmZNjKB4/edit?usp=sharing

Have setup averages etc.

50 thoughts on “Election Prediction Extravaganza”

  1. I dunno about this sweepstake stuff, Tim, but I reckon it’ll be a comfortable victory for Boris. He’s got the sort of broad appeal Thatcher and Clinton (the good one) had in their prime.

    Corbynmania peaked in 2017 against the execrable Treeza May, he’s less popular now than when he last lost an election

    The Brexit Party’s moment has passed, most Leavers are OK with the Boris deal and Nigel Farage’s relentless negativity is a real buzzkill.

    The Liberal Democrats will do OK with their target audience of short-haired, pug-faced women and sandal-wearing paedos.

    The Greens will win Brighton

    Nicola Sturgeon will appear in The Beano as transgender Gnasher.

  2. Lib Dems might think they’re all that, but most of their MPs were not elected as Lib Dems. I predict they will do similarly bad this time. Labour are at risk of losing seats to the Brexit Party, particularly in the North. I don’t think people will vote Brexit in areas where the conservatives traditionally do well, so they should be relatively safe. Of course, who knows really…

    This FPTP system is kinda crappy, let’s face it.

  3. I think Steve is approximately right, but Boris will bottle it and hammer out a non-compete with Nigel, thereby further twisting the knife in the long slow conservative suicide. A non-compete will demoralise the activists and there will be a big price to pay in 2024.

    If he doesn’t, I would expect another tory minority and they will have to do a post-hoc coalition deal with Nige, who will insist on hard brexit. Actually that could well be Boris’ game plan now.

    Either way there will be a surprising jump in the number of lib dem seats, at expense of both major parties.

  4. The Brexit Party will do for the Tories what UKIP did for them in 2015: be a home for pissed off tribal Labour voters who would never vote Tory…..and that’s how Ed Balls lost his seat.

    Rather than being a threat to the Tories, the Brexit Party will do a marvellous job of suppressing the Labour vote amongst the white working class.

  5. Really doubt that Johnson will do any kind of deal with Brexit party, he’s got nothing to gain from it and plenty to lose. His squeeze message is simple: if you don’t vote Tory you’ll get a labour government and Brexit will be canned.

    Plus the fact that Cummings et al hate farage and vice versa.

  6. BiG – On current polling, TBP won’t win a single seat. They might stop the Tories or Labour winning some marginals, but they’ll probably struggle to do better than UKIP did in 2015 – which was 12% of the vote.

    Ironically, Boris is the only major UK pol so far to have learned from Trump (or maybe Trump saw him on HIGNFY). Yes, a lot of people strongly dislike him, but he has the optimistic charisma to offset that and appeal to normal folks on bread and butter issues. Much as the media wants to portray both men as snarling, angry extremists, or make us hate them for shagging women, they have big enough and generous enough personalities to cut through the newsprop.

    Farage is stuck in a pre-2016 time warp of complaining bitterly about everything like Eeyore Hitchens. There’s an audience for that, but it’s a niche. Best thing Boris could do is award him a peerage or something, as both reward and expedience.

  7. We live in a seat which either Labour or Libdem will win. Advice, please. (The Labour man is an ultra-Quisling.)

    If TBP stand I’m tempted to vote for them as a belated protest against Theresa May’s Conservatives. Or perhaps simply abstain.

  8. dearieme, spoil your ballot paper with the message: You are all a bunch of useless cockwombling twats. I’m surprised you can remember to walk upright in the mornings.

  9. BiA

    His squeeze message is simple: if you don’t vote Tory you’ll get a labour government and Brexit will be canned.

    The problem with that message is that to your average Brexit voter that kind of message can simply come across as a threat. And we Brits don’t really do threats? Indeed “Peterborough” would be the obvious riposte. “Vote Conservative, get Corbyn”. I accept that the polls have moved since then.

    Really doubt that Johnson will do any kind of deal with Brexit party, he’s got nothing to gain from it and plenty to lose. “

    It doesn’t have to be formal. Any side that makes a successful effort to avoid vote splitting will gain. Hence something a whole lot more constructive than the “we own your vote” type of message may probably be best. Boris having a quiet pint with Nigel (and an informal agreement) is unlikely to hurt. That’ll probably be evidenced by a whole load of sound Conservatives not having the TBP challenge them, and the Conservatives being actively invisible (or even pro TBP) in a number of Labour Leave seats where they would anyway have stood little chance?

    BiG

    The long slow Conservative suicide has been following Labour to the left at every twist and turn.

  10. If the polls are to be believed there is zero reason for Boris to cosy up to TBP in any formal way. One suspects that in certain Labour seats where the Tories are well behind and historical reasons mean disaffected Labour voters won’t vote Tory if you paid them hard cash that the Tories will not exactly press too hard, and leave the way open for TBP to have a good run at the seat. But a formal divvying up of the seats will not happen, I’m sure there will be Tory candidates in all non-NI seats. If the polls were closer, as they were in the Euros, then a formal pact would 100% be needed, but I think Boris will consider he’s got enough of a lead to not risk the ire of the usual suspects by tying himself to Nigel.
    More to the point is whether TBP will contest every seat themselves, or whether they will target certain specific areas instead. If they don’t contest every seat that in itself will be a sort of BP/Tory pact, because an objective choice of target seats would tend to be more weighted towards Labour seats than Tory ones.

  11. @Steve, I hope you are right. My fear is that the Conservatives will lose say 10 seats to the SNP and 20 to the Liberal Democrats which means they need to gain 40 from Labour for an overall majority, most of which will in the Midlands/North of England where I fear the Labour vote is too tribal.

  12. On the basis that a large part of the “Labour” vote is actually the anti-Tory vote, an overt cooperation with the Tories would hurt TBP rather than help, and this appears to be where TBP are fishing. I suspect that TBP are concentrated in Labour leave seats, so all the Tories need do is concentrate their canvassing elsewhere , where they can win but TBP can’t. Oh and keep slagging off Nige- it’ll help him pinch Labour votes.

  13. Leave EU are setting up a tactical voting website to do what Blojo is too dumb to do.

    And a vote for him–tho’ more likely TBP to battle ZaNu locally–will be ONY for Brexit.

    After Brexit –it will be red war on BlueLabour and all of them.

    I’m not Irish but this bloke speaks for me as well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWXrmXCanOQ

  14. @Sam Jones
    Quite hopeful that the Tories surprise a few people in Scotland, and hold on to a lot of their 2017 gains. You guys daaarn saaarf might forget it but for most Scots ‘the referendum’ means the 2014 vote on independence, which far eclipses Brexit. There is a very strong desire to avoid another one from half of the population. Tories have positioned themselves as the only unionist party.

    As an example of this, there was a council by election in Aberdeen this month where Tories came first, having got 6% of the vote in the same ward in 2012.

  15. Bloke in North Dorset

    There’s a lot of wishful thinking about how well Boris is going to do and I hope you’re right, but I have serious doubts:

    – This isn’t a just a Leave v Remain election, its going to be very noisy with lots of issues hitting home: NHS, social care and education really are front and centre in lots of minds and Labour’s ambiguity on Brexit may be enough to swing a lot of their core voters back to them.

    – National polls really do not translate in to seats as this is a 4-way election rather than essentially binary in England and Wales between Labour and Tories.

    – Strong Leave Labour seats in the north do not translate easily to the Tories. Tribal loyalties are hard to put aside. This is where TBP come in.

    – The Establishment is still heavily Remain. It may be harder in a GE because of impartiality rules but that won’t stop them trying.

    – Labour’s Momentum vanguard really is fired up. They’ve been waiting for this for a while.

    – Remainers are getting very organised for tactical voting, although I’m not convinced it will have that much of an impact.

    – A lot of the left leaning electorate won’t be that bothered about Corbyn’s past or even Labour’s antisemitic present. Foreign affairs are 2nd order or even higher issues in GEs

    That’s for starters.

    This is why Boris is coming across more as New Labour than Old Tory, they’ve done their polling and looked at the electoral landscape and know they’re in a dog fight.

  16. For a lot of conservatives who take an active interest in politics, the visceral hatred and disgust in which they hold the Tory party after the Brexit debacle means that for many they will never vote Tory again. This disdain applies not only to the remainers but even to the likes of W Rees-Mogg. “He voted for Treason May’s deal and he voted for Boris’ deal so he’s as bad as the rest!” goes the refrain.

    How big this group is, I don’t know and how many will actively vote against BoJo’s boys and girls remains to be seen. Maybe most will be like Ecksy and bite their lip and vote for the bastards in the hope of getting some sort of Brexit.

    For me, I haven’t voted Tory since Cameron and nothing this lot are doing makes me want to change my mind. If there’s no UKIP candidate standing where I am, (a traditional Tory seat), I suppose I might vote Brexit party but if they’re not standing it’s spoilt ballot time.

  17. As former PM Harold Wilson once said: “A week in politics is a long time”. We will have to see what happens.

    The one certain prediction is that whoever forms the next government will NOT represent the votes of the majority of the population of the UK or even of the majority of votes cast. First Past The Post just about guarantees that. Democracy — Got to love it!

  18. I haven’t a notion of what’s going to happen, but I have a nasty feeling that those of us who have mistrusted BoJo will have cause for rueful self-congratulation.

    I think his ‘deal’ is explicable in one of only two ways. Either he does not give a toss about actually leaving the EU or he hoped it would be rejected so he could say he did his best.

    I also have a nasty feeling that the media’s turd-polishing of that deal is typical Establishment schmoozing of the same type that seeks to consign Grandpa Death to the realms of the unacceptable (on that, I agree with Steve). In other words, BoJo is getting an easy ride, cos he’s the Establishment candidate – but’s difficult to see it because for all his Doric toffery he has a blokeish charm, in public at least.

    Meanwhile, whilst I appreciate that the so-called government is terribly busy, attempts are being made at my daughter’s school to indoctrinate her in warble gloaming lunacy. Currently, they’re going heavy on the evils of meat-eating.

    She seems to have her head screwed on sufficiently to see through it. “Isn’t cold outside, though?” she asked me, archly, allied to various expressions of approval on the subject of tasty rabbit and leg of lamb.

    I only mention it, to remind those who would like to vote for a Tory Party, an actual Tory Party, with their interests at heart, that having a top-flight shagger and cavalier at the helm does not mean we’re not still stuck with more of the same faddish social democrat go-along-to-get-along squishy interest group and focus group dominated claptrap we’ve had ever since forever.

    I shall be interested to see whether they propose in their manifesto to abolish the FTPA. Remember, five years of more of the same is still five years more of the same.

  19. cos he’s the Establishment candidate

    They were dumping skipfulls of shit on him in the Summer, they were absolutely desperate to stop him.

  20. Fair point, Rob.

    But then, he got this ‘deal’. And it did not hurt the Est. so much. Plus, the warble gloaming and other SD crumminess persists. I don’t expect him to change the supercolossalsupertanker’s course over night. But some attempt to shift the Overton W would be welcome.

    And/or maybe, and here I might just possibly be entering conspiracy loon territory, the summer skipfulls were a ruse de guerre.

  21. In the week before the election, expect to see lots of MSM headlines about the NHS failing, long queues at A&E, people waiting on trolleys (as happens every winter), because of “ausderidee”. How much effect this will have remains to be seen.

  22. If we really had had austerity then money wouldn’t have been wasted on the cladding on the Grenfell Tower and those people would still be alive.

  23. Fuckem. They had three years to deliver independence and still don’t want to at deaths door.

    I’ll risk grandpa death and vote Farage. My local Tory MP is pointless anyway.

    Even if Boris were a sound Thatcherite, the Tory party is still Fucking Appeaser May’s anyway.

  24. ITYN / Lud +1

    My seat is safe Wet Tory (Remain, but obedient, will do whatever Boris tells him to) so it won’t matter how I vote. If TBP do stand, I might as well add one to the total tally.

  25. Steve,

    “I dunno about this sweepstake stuff, Tim, but I reckon it’ll be a comfortable victory for Boris. He’s got the sort of broad appeal Thatcher and Clinton (the good one) had in their prime.”

    People like Boris. And he has that vim about him.

    “Corbynmania peaked in 2017 against the execrable Treeza May, he’s less popular now than when he last lost an election”

    Most normal people didn’t know a lot about him. They do now. Lots of people, even Labour-ish types won’t vote for him.

    “The Brexit Party’s moment has passed, most Leavers are OK with the Boris deal and Nigel Farage’s relentless negativity is a real buzzkill.”

    Leavers are generally moderately rather than full-on eurosceptic. They’ll settle for Boris’ deal. Which is why BXP support has been declining.

    “The Liberal Democrats will do OK with their target audience of short-haired, pug-faced women and sandal-wearing paedos.”

    My prediction is that the LDs are going to do very well. If you’re a remainer, Corbyn has been far too woolly about Brexit. On top of that Swinson might be the girl who does the Timewarp at Xmas parties, but she’s not Grandpa Death.

    Everyone talks about Mrs Thatch winning in 1983 because of The Falklands, but that’s a co-incidence. The truth is that the Conservative percentage of the vote fell from 1979 to 1983. What really happened was that a lot of Labour voters switched to the SDP rather than voting for a load of communists. It went from a Labour/Liberal split of 36.9/13.8 to 27.6/25.4. The effect was that the opposition was split and the Conservatives won.

    And remember, Michael Foot and Tony Benn were more sensible than Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Here’s my predictions on this:-
    1) Almost no Con/Lab seats will flip. The LDs will drag votes away and they won’t be able to flip any. In some places, that could be large enough that they end up with a second place.
    2) Some Lab/Con seats will flip as a result of Lab brexiteers going Con, plus the LDs dragging Labour votes away
    3) LDs will do well in Con/LD battles. Their own vote will hold up and a lot of Lab voters will be willing to tactically vote LD.

  26. For all those who are purveying the ‘Boris’s deal is a sell out, its BRINO all over again, treason, traitors!’ line, I have one observation – which sort of Tory is leaving Parliament at this election? Is it the ERG members, or the ones who have done their utmost to stymie Brexit? If Boris was a sell out, why would all the people who want a sell out be currently looking for alternative employment?

    The facts tell us that it is the anti-Brexit faction, of the Tory party at least, who have been given their marching orders, and the Brexit faithful are still there, in government in many cases. So I am happy to back the Boris Deal, in that its not really a deal at all, its just another period of time to negotiate the actual deal. And the nature of the Tory party for this negotiation suggests to me that the outcome of those negotiations will be far more amendable to Brexit voters than anything we have seen so far.

    This election offers a Brexit voter a simple choice – back Boris and his Tory party stripped of the Euro-wets (and wets on just about everything else), and trust them to bring home the Brexit bacon, or back Nigel and his ideologically pure version of Brexit which we have seen for the last 3 years will NEVER get past everyone else. The one thing you can count on the opposition to Brexit agreeing on is that they don’t want ‘No Deal’ and they and all the Establishment including the Supreme Court will do everything they can to stop it. A vote for Nigel is a vote for Government of National Unity led by Grandpa Death or one of the bossy female politicians we are beset with these days, who will kill Brexit for sure.

    So it comes down to Boris’s version of Brexit, or no Brexit at all I’m afraid. And I can live with that. If we are out legally, then over time the EU will float ever further and further away from us. There may be ties binding us for a while but they will loosen and break once the EU sets its course on what its always wanted, a United States of Europe. Its like a divorce, you move out pretty much immediately, even though the financial and other commitments tie you together for years. But eventually they all fall aside. and you’re free to do whatever you want.

  27. What happened to the Dianne (sic) Abbott entry on the spreadsheet? That was funny-as-fuck and should have been left on for a giggle.

  28. Jim, if I may say so, that is thoughtful, rigorous and cogently expressed. I am almost persuaded.

    The problem I personally have, aside from tribally not trusting the Tories at all, is that I think I was wrong to believe Brexit must precede the destruction of the Tories.

    I now think the destruction of the Tories must precede all else.

    I’ve had a bellyful of the ‘good enough’ puke pasties the Tories have been serving us since, what? 1896?

    Im trying to be pragmatic. I even placed some faith in Raab, Priti, Moggy.

    But, and this for me currently is the clincher, excepting Priti’s hand ’em and flof’ em noises, I see nothing indicating they’re on our side.

    BoJo just wants to win an election. The Tories do that, at least, very well.

  29. @Edward Lud October 31, 2019 at 5:20 pm

    I think his ‘deal’ is explicable in one of only two ways. Either he does not give a toss about actually leaving the EU or he hoped it would be rejected so he could say he did his best.

    Agree. His attitude now appears to be “Accept May’s/My “Deal” or we remain”

    Yes, May’s backstop is gone, but instead we have a Transition Period which continues until EU agrees it ends – during this period UK must adopt all new EU Laws and Regulations ie Vassal State

  30. Hmmm.

    They want £39, 000,000,000 plus unlimited ability to sell us BMWs.

    And we adopt the catamite’s posish.

  31. I reckon Keith Vaz could give it to us for less.

    He might haggle, but he’d settle for a billion or two.

  32. Chaps, Frankie says relax.

    The BoJo deal is better than anyone expected him to get in the circumstances. It was also never going to pass Parliament.

    I’m less worried about the shitty temporary details than the direction of travel, which is towards Real Brexit with an FTA.

    There’s always the high chance the Tories will betray us, or they might not win the election, or whatever, but bear in mind:

    * There was no alternative to the election, this Parliament and the courts simply wouldn’t let us leave

    * Nigel Farage isn’t going to be PM this Christmas

    * If Boris wins a majority, his hand will be much strengthened in dealing with the EU, particularly once our relationship changes from Member State to third party

    * We’re still in the very early stages of a long overdue political realignment, and there will be many twists and turns along the way

    Stop worrying so much about the day to day stuff, the good guys are actually winning for the first time since Maggie Thatcher left office.

    12 years ago the globalist managerialist class was at the peak of its cultural and institutional hegemony. They haven’t gone away, but they’ve already lost the mandate of heaven. Most of what we’re seeing is a desperate rearguard action by a rotten old guard that finds itself on the wrong side of history. Parliament, the cops, the media, the courts have beclowned themselves to the extent they’re now less trusted than Comical Ali reading aloud the memoirs of Billy Liar.

    France is still facing semi-permanent low-level populist insurgency. Italy is going nationalist. The Dutch are revolting. Even Germany is starting to remember it has testicles. The Bushite/Fukuyamaist post-1991 New World Order is joining ol’ George in the Bad Fire.

    Why do you think progressives are now in a state of constant anxiety and hysteria? It’s not because they’re winning.

    Everything is gonna be great.

  33. “They want £39, 000,000,000 plus unlimited ability to sell us BMWs.”

    And the alternative is? There’s two alternative options, nothing under the True Believer No Deal, which is highly unlikely, or an infinity of paying in ever larger amounts if we stay in, which is a distinct possibility. When viewed in the rear view mirror a decade from now £39bn will seem like the bargain of the century. Remember Seward’s Folly? Who’s laughing now?

  34. Wondering how useful the usual attacks by labour and media over the NHS etc will be as Boris has played the we need to move on from Brexit and deal with issues card since day 1 so the complaints could play into his hands. He’s not claiming everything is wonderful and is shifting blame on to his predecessor and the Brexit delays

  35. Jim, seriously?

    There’s no alternative to handing over £39bn, fluffing German industrialists while taking it up the wotsit?

    Proves my point. This is no longer about Brexit.

    We get the pols we deserve. And we deserve better.

    Newmania doesn’t. But I do.

  36. What £39bn between friends? We’re going to spunk probably 3 times that on a superannuated train set (HS2) and the world isn’t going to end. Don’t get hung up on the money, its just numbers.

  37. For all those who are purveying the ‘Boris’s deal is a sell out, its BRINO all over again, treason, traitors!’ line, I have one observation – which sort of Tory is leaving Parliament at this election? Is it the ERG members, or the ones who have done their utmost to stymie Brexit?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7627353/Boris-Johnson-restores-Tory-whip-10-Brexit-rebels.html

    “However, a Tory source said that this evening’s events do not mean that the remaining 11 will be permanently deprived of the whip as they suggested there could still be a way back for the PM’s critics.”

    Yes, I’m sure there could.

  38. Just enter the amount of seats you think each party will win.

    Groan…………………. Where’s a sub-editor when you need one?

  39. Bloke in North Dorset

    Jim sets it out very well, as usual.

    I’d like to add that the term “deal” has become misunderstood in many quarters, not least the Remain MSM, whether through ignorance or malice I won’t speculate here.

    Leaving the EU was always a 2 stage process, first you agree the details of the divorce and only then can you start to negotiate a future trading arrangement, whilst in theory still in the EU. Yes there is a political declaration as part of the withdrawal agreement, but like all political declarations it means all things to all men and is basically worthless.

    The EU broke its own rules by insisting on some form of future arrangements for the NI border being part of the divorce, or withdrawal, part of the agreement, other than that the rest is mere detail and that’s where the rot and confusion started to set in, not helped by May making a backstop commitment that looked and felt like BRINO and when analysed turned out to be BRINO.

    If we think we want a trade deal with the EU, and it would be folly not to, then it is easier to negotiate whilst still nominally part of the EU and still in full regulatory alignment rather than on the outside which would mean reviewing and agreeing all regulations. Its also easier to negotiate a deal when your aren’t on acrimonious terms following a “crash-out”.

    Not that there’s anything wrong with leaving without a withdrawal agreement and trading on WTO terms in theory, but it would make a future arrangement more difficult in both a trade and political terms. As I’ve noted before, the WTO itself is having problems and the appeals process is likely to grind to a halt in the near future, which will render the WTO effectively dead but even if it wasn’t the fact that most countries go around arranging trade deals tells you all you need to know about trading on WTO terms.

    This could have all been handled a lot better and whilst its fun to blame May and sneer at Remainers we really do need someone who’s going to get stuck in to the real politick and sort out this mess. As I look round I find that Boris is about the only one standing who looks like he could bring about a result I could live with, although I still have doubts about him as a PM.

  40. Brexit Theatre has been surreal from the git-go. Commenters here give many rational thoughts. I caution you not to expect anything rational to occur.

  41. There was only a referendum because UKIP was breathing down the Conservative’s neck, the Conservatives not deliver Brexit unless the Brexit Party remains a treat. Jim’s analysis is good but the optimism does rather depend on the Conservatives not being free of the Brexit shadow.

  42. @Edward Lud October 31, 2019 at 9:14 pm
    @Jim October 31, 2019 at 10:04 pm

    £39, 000,000,000 is not the payment

    After we sign the Surrender Treaty, Barnier decides what UK pays. If we disagree, ECJ confirms Barnier’s figure.

    Also, if Euro/ECB goes tits-up we’re liable – via EIB – for £500 Billion

    @BiND

    Article 184 of Treaty gives legal weight to Political Declaration and enables ECJ to rule on UK actions/interpretation if EU disagrees

    Same as May’s with “backstop” replaced by “transition period”

    Correct. EU admit in Treaty they broke Art 50 rules, by signing Treaty breach of law accepted by UK

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *