Whatever the outcome of the negotiations going on at the moment between No 10 and the EU, Brexiters will say that all the uncertainty was worth it, especially when a recession fails to appear.
This view has become entrenched, even though the latest analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows that the post-referendum analysis by the Treasury has come to pass. That is, the UK economy has seen more downs than ups and is now 2% to 3% smaller than it would have been if the vote had never happened.
The trajectory of GDP growth from March 2016 was calculated by the Office for Budget Responsibility and showed the UK being between £40bn and £60bn bigger than it is now. That is a huge loss of income to businesses and households that would have generated significant tax receipts.
Let’s accept that for the sake of argument.
Worse are the cuts made by businesses that will deny Britain a strong recovery whenever the fog of Brexit uncertainty ends. Business investment in new plant, machinery and technology has grown 0.4% since 2016. That is barely more than 0.1% a year. Contrast that growth rate with 2015, when business investment increased by 6.5% and in 2014 when it jumped 7.3%.
The argument is not that the uncertainty was worth it. Rather, that sure, Brexit itself will cause some dislocation in the economy. And, for those reasons of democracy, freedom, liberty, being free of the damn Krauts, it will be worth it.
The uncertainty isn’t worth it at all. And we could solve – could have solved – the uncertainty by getting on with it, taking the hit of the dislocation and thus proceeding.
Brexit is worth it, the uncertainty imposed by Remoaners in refusing to enact the will of the people isn’t.