So, disorderly Brexit would push public debt up to 90% of GDP. This would be a bad thing therefore we must not have disorderly Brexit.
This will become a standard now, will it? John McDonnell becoming Chancellor will push up debt levels over 90% – yes, it will, he’s going to nationalise using debt – and this would be a bad thing therefore no making JD Chancellor then?
Guido and Sky News are saying that Rosa Klebb has killed off a deal:
Merkel said that if Germany wanted to leave the EU they could do it no problem but the UK cannot leave without leaving Northern Ireland behind in a customs union and in full alignment forever. She said that Ireland is the government’s special problem and Ireland must at least have a veto on NI leaving. Merkel said that the PM should tell Northern Ireland that it must stay in full alignment forever, but that even this would not eliminate customs issues.
‘It was a very useful clarifying moment in all sorts of ways. If this represents a new established position, then it means a deal is essentially impossible not just now but ever. It also made clear that they are willing to torpedo the Good Friday Agreement’
23 days, chaps. It’s coming home.
If we have to borrow to get out of the EU then now’s the time. We’ve been told for years that with interest rates so low we should be borrowing to spend on useful projects.
Our grandchildren will thank us in the future when they realise how much we’ve saved them.
I have already dealt with this .The interesting coincidence is that the last time we hit this awful position was the mid 60s which is also about the time France and Germany flew past us leaving us the sick man of Europe and the international joke we are again .
I have seen for ages that the Brexit charlatans planned to spend our children`s money covering up their lies and if we top out at 90 % be relived
you may feel that the fact that a bunch of sixth form Communists are just as dangerous makes it ok but it does very little for me .
No need to wait the 23 days if a deal is not possible, might as well do it today.
We’d save £1.15 billion too (3 weeks, 2 days x £350m/week)
Newmania – after we leave the EU, will you have to find a new mania?
You haven’t “dealt with” shit Facepainter. Tho’ maybe Granny Mercow should have consulted you –you puffed-up self important brainless, treasonous cunt–before her actions.
Steve,
Have I read that correctly, from the Reich Fuhrer?
“If you want any kind of future trade deal with our cosy protection racket, ever, you must first surrender Northern Ireland to us”.
Is that the gist of it?
Because I can’t believe a majority of people in this country are such worthless nonces that they would capitulate to such a threat? And in which case, whatever the increasingly frantic squeals of Newms and all the multitudes of his fellow EU troughers, WTO it surely is?
Itys on Guido directly quoted from No 10. What a nice Mercow to fucked the remainiacs for us and show that a Deal isn’t and never was possible.
The remain gang can now advocate only total surrender. The Surrender Act is fucked and most people–in the face of EU arrogance–would be on my side with emergency powers use if needed to break the House of Traitors.
I have already dealt with this
Problem solved then! Let’s move on.
I remember the days when the Krauts were honest and at least invaded you to annexe territory. Now they are so arrogant they just demand it.
I’m ready for your visit, Mr Newmania
PF – Via a Number 10 source as Ecksy says.
The DUP are being rather magnificent:
“The EU is not interested in a negotiated outcome at this time. Their position is the UK can only leave with a deal if it agrees a binding piece of international law permanently tying either the whole country or a part of it to the EU’s legal order over which it has no control.
“The true purpose of the ‘backstop’ is now in the open for all to see. Those who eagerly supported the backstop as the best of both worlds can now see the error of that assessment. It was neither temporary nor an insurance policy,” she said.
This puts the Surrender Act gang up shit creek. An extension for what? So they can negotiate a brazen surrender?
As I said I think LOTS of folk would support using emergency powers to ensure that any HoTraitors MP gang can’t sell us –and NI- out. And any attack on the UK’s sovereignty–albeit a verbal one (even Hitler started with the verbals)– might even by grounds for war powers.
Plus–the traitors can’t decide already who they want for CareGiver Cunt. Which one of them wants to step up to organise a UK sellout surrender. The statement that Treason May’s WA shite was something “only a nation defeated in war would sign” has now been boosted100 fold.
Who wants that on their CV?
If Jizz was smart–which he fucking isn’t–he should announce that in view of Mercow’s statement the Labour Party will be supporting a No Deal Brexit on 31/10/19.
Labour, Lib Dems, they’d give up Northern Ireland just to have a nice word said about them at a dinner party. It’s pretty obvious what the Supreme Soviet in charge of the Labour Party feel about Northern Ireland.
If Germany leaves the EU wouldn’t they have to abandon Vennbahn and Büsingen am Hochrhein?
23 days, chaps. It’s coming home.
Only if the remainers continue in disarray (which is one type of a “political accident” that I still see as the only route out). They’ll be very focussed now, so we’ll see.
The general chaos on all sides is encouraging.
PJF–What are you talking about PJF? They are going to get it together and organise a complete UK & NI sellout because it will be such a good look for them and pleasing a crapulous minority of traitors will hand them epic GE defeats?
We are assured that preparations are in place for a WTO exit. If that is correct then exit will not be disorderly.
As to the pros and cons of a deal, it depends entirely on the content of the deal.
Maybe if we agreed to hand over remainers in chains we might save some money- and they’re insisting on a deal, any deal, so they’ll be happy.
They are going to get it together and organise a complete UK & NI sellout because it will be such a good look for them and pleasing a crapulous minority of traitors will hand them epic GE defeats?
If they can, Mr Ecks. It should be obvious by now that they are either deluded about their electoral popularity or just don’t give a shit. They are very committed to the remain cause and prepared to throw anything and everything under the bus for it. Presumably you think so too otherwise you wouldn’t keep wittering on about using the Civil Contingencies Act to stop them.
I fear Tory weakness and “rule of law” cockrot. Not the power of the remainiacs. Their “power” is ONLY the shadow of possible Tory weakness. I already outlined how Johnson could win–IF he has the balls.
Mercow’s mouth has made BoJo’s job easier–but her “territorial demands” would certainly have me reaching for the CCA –if not war powers.
I wonder if part of the reason that Lib Dem’s don’t want Corbyn as interim PM is they don’t intend a GNU to be in power just for a few weeks to secure an extension and call a GE, as they have stated, but want to keep going for as long as possible and make effectively remaining in the EU an irreversible decision or at least waiting for some of the leave anger to fade or time to try to make the election about some other issue.
Personally I can’t see leave anger fading at a stitch up, but the remainers in parliment seem stupid to believe that it would and if they can hang on long enough they can get away with it.
BnIc–Yes-if they get a Caretaker Cunt in they will vote NO to a GE on the second vote. And by 2022 every turd over 14 with one foot on UK soil will be voting. Bye bye Brexit and bye bye UK.
Which is why BoJo can’t afford any of this “we must obey the law” shite. Because it will bring on those who don’t give a rat’s arse about laws but only power.
Boris wants a GE and this statement seems like it will push the cabal in Parliament into making a move sooner rather than later.
Given their current disagreements on how to even proceed wonder if it’s a strategic move from Cummings to get them to act before they are ready and exploit weaknesses so they end up triggering a GE
Brexit first then GE–a No Deal Brexit neutralises TBP–who will have what they want. There will need to be a new Party to counter BlueLabour in the future but that is for another day. Get Brexit at all costs and then Boris is placed to win a GE.
@PF October 8, 2019 at 12:40 pm
Yep
Full Report
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7549155/No10-warns-Boris-Johnson-fight-No-Deal-election-against-hostile-EU.html
Summary
https://news.sky.com/story/angela-merkel-tells-pm-brexit-deal-overwhelmingly-unlikely-11830601
Robert Peston: blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/angela-merkel-rejects-boris-johnsons-brexit-offer/
Summary
Once again, EU prove Democracy Verboten
Donald Tusk “At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people.”
Correct, but EU intransigence and desire to punish UK at any cost has led to this.
As Biw said, we should now leave today
Interesting snippet from someone who is apparently (anonymous source) working on Number 10’s strategy. Via James Forsyth at the Speccy: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-number-10-view-the-state-of-the-negotiations/
The negotiations will probably end this week. Varadkar doesn’t want to negotiate. Varadkar was keen on talking before the Benn Act when he thought that the choice would be ‘new deal or no deal’. Since the Benn Act passed he has gone very cold and in the last week the official channels and the backchannels have also gone cold. Varadkar has also gone back on his commitments — he said if we moved on manufactured goods then he would also move but instead he just attacked us publicly. It’s clear he wants to gamble on a second referendum and that he’s encouraging Barnier to stick to the line that the UK cannot leave the EU without leaving Northern Ireland behind.
There are quite a few people in Paris and Berlin who would like to discuss our offer but Merkel and Macron won’t push Barnier unless Ireland says it wants to negotiate. Those who think Merkel will help us are deluded. As things stand, Dublin will do nothing, hoping we offer more, then at the end of this week they may say ‘OK, let’s do a Northern Ireland only backstop with a time limit’, which is what various players have been hinting at, then we’ll say No, and that will probably be the end.
Varadkar thinks that either there will be a referendum or we win a majority but we will just put this offer back on the table so he thinks he can’t lose by refusing to compromise now. Given his assumptions, Varadkar’s behaviour is arguably rational but his assumptions are, I think, false. Ireland and Brussels listen to all the people who lost the referendum, they don’t listen to those who won the referendum and they don’t understand the electoral dynamics here.
If this deal dies in the next few days, then it won’t be revived. To marginalise the Brexit Party, we will have to fight the election on the basis of ‘no more delays, get Brexit done immediately’. They thought that if May went then Brexit would get softer. It seems few have learned from this mistake. They think we’re bluffing and there’s nothing we can do about that, not least given the way May and Hammond constantly talked tough then folded.
So, if talks go nowhere this week, the next phase will require us to set out our view on the Surrender Act. The Act imposes narrow duties. Our legal advice is clear that we can do all sorts of things to scupper delay which for obvious reasons we aren’t going into details about. Different lawyers see the “frustration principle” very differently especially on a case like this where there is no precedent for primary legislation directing how the PM conducts international discussions.
We will make clear privately and publicly that countries which oppose delay will go the front of the queue for future cooperation — cooperation on things both within and outside EU competences. Those who support delay will go to the bottom of the queue. [This source also made clear that defence and security cooperation will inevitably be affected if the EU tries to keep Britain in against the will of its government] Supporting delay will be seen by this government as hostile interference in domestic politics, and over half of the public will agree with us.
We will also make clear that this government will not negotiate further so any delay would be totally pointless. They think now that if there is another delay we will keep coming back with new proposals. This won’t happen. We’ll either leave with no deal on 31 October or there will be an election and then we will leave with no deal.
‘When they say ‘so what is the point of delay?’, we will say “This is not our delay, the government is not asking for a delay — Parliament is sending you a letter and Parliament is asking for a delay but official government policy remains that delay is an atrocious idea that everyone should dismiss. Any delay will in effect be negotiated between you, Parliament, and the courts — we will wash our hands of it, we won’t engage in further talks, we obviously won’t given any undertakings about cooperative behaviour, everything to do with ‘duty of sincere cooperation’ will be in the toilet, we will focus on winning the election on a manifesto of immediately revoking the entire EU legal order without further talks, and then we will leave. Those who supported delay will face the inevitable consequences of being seen to interfere in domestic politics in a deeply unpopular way by colluding with a Parliament that is as popular as the clap.
Those who pushed the Benn Act intended to sabotage a deal and they’ve probably succeeded. So the main effect of it will probably be to help us win an election by uniting the leave vote and then a no deal Brexit. History is full of such ironies and tragedies.
One interesting thing is that quote is “If this deal dies in the next few days, then it won’t be revived. To marginalise the Brexit Party, we will have to fight the election on the basis of ‘no more delays, get Brexit done immediately’.” Probably realistic because they risk being outflanked by Farage if they are unable to deliver by the 31st.
This strategy is really casting the die and relies on making up for leafy suburban areas, and a possible Lib Dem revival across southern and south-west constituencies, by picking up seats in traditional Labour but Leave-majority areas elsewhere. A decent chunk of 2015/2017 Tory voters very much want a deal – not a majority of them, but a slice they could do without losing if the election is close and remain-voters or deal-preferrers decide to vote tactically. The difficulty with picking up non-traditional Tory voters and seats to replace those losses is that the Tory brand is still not transfer-friendly (they score higher than the other main parties in “would never for” polling), Labour Leave voters rate Brexit significantly lower on their priority list than Tory Leave voters do so are unlikely to switch (particularly so long as Labour maintain their position of equivocation rather than coming out explicitly for Remain) and people who self-report as likely to vote for The Brexit Party express extraordinarily deep unwillingness to vote Tory (to some extent this is because Johnson has already squeezed TBP down by getting eurosceptic Tory-leaners back in the fold, so only the more hardcore remain, but it’s going to be very difficult for him to get a majority if TBP get 10%+ at the next GE).
Tactical voting in the North will do it. Nor are there a vast number of EU sucking shite out there–3 to 4 to 5 million hard core remainiac pricks–but their polls are as bogus as their 3 and 4 times exaggerated march numbers and their bullshit petitions.
Nor are Labour voters as tribal as you think MBE. Brexit is it in this next GE. Jizz is widely hated in the North East and North West. And Mercow’s big gob will have helped greatly. Nothing personal MBE but you are a bloodless calculating worm and millions are not.
@Ecks
Not all Labour voters are tribal indeed, but that tends to manifest as either tending to stay at home if they don’t feel enthusiastic about the Labour offer, or as defecting to a more transfer-friendly party (this time round The Brexit Party will be expecting to perform reasonably well in terms of vote-share in such seats, but the polling doesn’t suggest they’ll actually be in a serious competition in more than a handful of them).
The polling picture of strong unwillingness to vote Tory among both Labour Leavers and TBP voters, and the fact that Labour Leavers rate other priorities higher than Brexit, are not good news from the tactical voting perspective. I know you hate polls but that’s also consistent with records from local elections, European elections, and local and parliamentary by-elections – if there is to be the huge swathe of red-to-blue converts that the Tory strategy requires, there’s little sign of them yet, so they’re going to have to get pulled out of a hat at just the right moment. That’s a cross your fingers and hope job at the moment, though I can see the proposed spending splurge is partly targeted at them. I do agree that tactical voting is going to be crucial and the worry is that Labour, Green, Lib Dem and hardcore Tory-leaning Remainers may be more willing to switch to achieve their aim.
My main hope at the moment is that parliamentary Remainers or the EU or both do something really profoundly stupid and ignite the rage of Leave voters. At the moment, Remain voters have more motivation and momentum. The Merkel quote is pretty good. More MPs calling Leave voters uneducated racists would also be handy, but there’s been plenty of that already and it hasn’t proven decisive just yet. A move towards Revoke might prove the tipping point, but that’s a bit of an elephant trap so not sure how many MPs will go down that route – certainly not a majority even of Remainers, but maybe enough to raise some alarms.
A good old row between Labour and the Lib Dems (and maybe the Greens) would be helpful in making them less transfer-friendly. Or internal ructions. The LD parliamentary party has swallowed up a lot of Tories lately and even though it was mostly wets, they’re no longer so distinctly left-of-centre – the Phillip Lee defection triggered some “homophobia” resignations in the LD LGBT wing, but that quietened down pretty fast. Perhaps a more centrist LDs would be less attractive to left-wing potential tactical voters. Maybe Labour will cock up the balance and become too explictly Remain-backing to carry some of their Leave-backing constituencies, or will go the other way and be too equivocal on Brexit to gain LD/Green switchers. A blame game between Swinson and Corbyn about why the government couldn’t be brought down sooner might raise suspicions among Remain voters that one or maybe both parties are more interested in power-play and less in doing whatever it takes to prevent Brexit. Like @PJF, I’m hoping the current lack of coordination is laying down the groundwork for more chaos to come and that may open up some opportunities.
The next election is very likely to be swung by tactical voting between Leavers and Remainers, and our party system is probably years overdue realigning with the main political fault-line. Ecksy’s 100% correct that if the Tories can mobilise Northern Leavers they should take the election, and deservedly so – that would be a serious feat. If both sides struggle to achieve their optimal tactical allocations, though, then I’m pinning my hopes on the Greens, LDs and Labour wasting a lot of each other’s votes in seats the Tories manage to come through the middle.
Would love to know what Farage will do if the Tories explictly back No Deal. Will it be too tempting to have a last bash at destroying the Establishment or will he back off to avoid becoming The Man Who Accidentally Stopped Brexit?
“At the moment, Remain voters have more motivation and momentum.”
How do you get to that statement MBE? I know loads of folks at boiling point with the EU and ZaNu as well. Sure “everybody I know etc”–but folk aren’t thinking about “What is that cunt Jizz going to do for me–aside from Brexit?”
Worth watching:
Nigel Farage meets Rod Liddle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weAruOCjMRc
@MyBurningEars October 8, 2019 at 9:00 pm
Correct. Benn’s Surrender Act meant no point in EU negotiating as they could respond with 3 month, 3 year, 30 year extension and Johnson compelled to accept
Not keen on assassination, but Benn, Bercow, Grieve and Letwin deserve it for their colluding with a foreign power treachery
.
Re Northern Vote – Johnson must make a covert agreement with TBP – Con candidate ill and withdraws etc
Worth watching:
Nigel Farage meets Rod Liddle
Yes indeed. Rod Liddle and our Steve both make me laugh with their wordsmithery but I fear Rod is the Brexiteer with the better insight into the forces we’re up against.
They’re all political hack scum, including Boris and Cummings. I still say the only hope for Brexit is that all the bastards’ various combinations of greed and incompetence will lead to a political accident in which they run out of time to stop it this month.
But that’s unlikely. And as Liddle points out, what is likely is that we’ll be disappointed with the results of the subsequent GE.
A decent chunk of 2015/2017 Tory voters very much want a deal
True. But now it is clear there is no deal available.
If that leak to James Forsyth want directly from Cummings it was by someone who he’d briefed on what to say and probably signed off on the final wording, so we can take it that they were sending a message to the EU.
@MBE
In this game of 4 dimensional political chess Cummings also has to consider who gets on the Conservative ticket. No point in having a majority of 30 if 20 of them are going to bottle it when it comes to the crunch.
I’m as hardcore a BRExiteer as you can get and I would be very happy to get a deal with the EU, but I’ve always known that this was unlikely to be agreed and even if agreed (which it essentially was in the form of Treason May’s capitulation treaty), then it would never get ratified by both the UK parliament and the EU, which is where we are right now.
Treason May’s capitulation treaty is the only thing on offer and it is deliberately structured to be worse in many ways than remaining in the EU on our current terms. Even if Boris had been elected in 2017, I suspect that the EU offer would be similar to what it is now, since to offer the UK what it deserves (essentially a Canada+ type arrangement of relatively free trade without the dead hand of regulation, free movement and Merkel’s economic immigrants) would be to make EU membership not just worthless, but an actual financial and political encumbrance, which is what it is.
So here we are yet again, with another extension deadline looming and no deal on the table that is worth having.
Can we leave yet?
Only the use of emergency powers can stop their attempted coup. Yes the remainiac scum all hate each other with good reason–but that won’t stop their plan. VONC–install some POS–then vote down a GE on the 2nd vote –and two years of voter importation/extension to finish Brexit and the UK for good.
In the face of that only a fucking imbecile would by peeing their pants about “rule of law”. The only chance of that EVER being retained is to make sure the EU do not gain ascendency via their tame creatures.
At what point can we declare war on Germany and hang the traitors?
I’m hoping it’s soon.
We don’t need any war other than the one we are in Mr Galt. Win that and we are set fair to win the ones to come. WE MUST–or there is no future for anyone outside of the globo “elite”.
Remember –they are not EVER going to just leave us alone. They have plans and those plans are ALL bad news for ordinary folk who just want to get on with their lives.
@John Galt
Given their air force has ~6 combat capable fast jets, none of their subs are seaworthy, their MTBs mostly broken and Army using broomsticks as guns; Sunday 05:00 would be best as most will be off duty and pissed. Should be over by midnight.
One can understand why Trump pissed of at Germany free loading on NATO
Johnson needs to call out Economically & Militarily weak Merkel
Germany’s ailing economy can’t afford a no-deal Brexit