This doesn’t look right to me

But I’m willing to be corrected:

More than half the children in custody are from ethnic minorities for the first time amid a rise in knife crime, according to figures from the chief inspector of probation.

Justin Russell said there were 415 blacks, Asians and minority ethnics (BAME) aged ten to 17 in young offender institutions or secure units compared to 396 whites in May.

It is the first time they have topped 50 per cent despite only comprising 18 per cent of the general population and 27 per cent of those who received a caution or conviction in 2017/18.

Average BAME (actually, “non-white” which may not be the same thing) is about 14% for all age groups. With a very definite bias younger. For over 80s it’s perhaps 4% for example. So, only 18% in that age group? Don’t think so.

It’s still nowhere near half of course.

I’d suggest another alteration too – let’s look at central urban populations only. At which point it wouldn’t hugely surprise to find that 50% of the total age group are in fact BAME. At which point, well, do we think that inner city teens are more likely to be arrested, be in custody, than non-inner city teens?

Dunno, but I think that just those two alterations would get us a lot of the way to explaining this number. Rather than what we’re going to get told it is, the rassssist British State.

18 thoughts on “This doesn’t look right to me”

  1. Justin Russell said there were 415 blacks, Asians and minority ethnics (BAME) aged ten to 17 in young offender institutions or secure units…

    Because they are villains.

  2. An absolute majority of the French prison population is Muslim. This surprises me because I admin a Facebook group (Russian Jet Fighters) and when I see a Muslim name in the join requests I approve immediately, because they never post porn, ads for Ray Bans or requests to help get lost millions of dollars out of frozen bank accounts. Assuming that it’s the most ambitious who leave their (deleted by censor) countries for a better life in the North Atlantic countries, how does minority delinquency happen? The problem is that this can’t be studied, because acknowledging that it exists would be bigotry.

  3. Compare it to the ethnicity of murderers which is taken as a reliable proxy for the overall crime rate.

    Isn’t BAME reputed to commit half of all murders, roughly in line with this?

  4. Southerner surely immigrants are the most driven to leave.

    Many for positive reasons like ambition, many for negative reasons like avoiding punishment for their criminality. The ratio is unknown.

    It’s the not bothering to weed out the negatively motivated that has brought immigration to contentiousness. A failing of government rather than immigrants.

  5. Immigrants have always & will always have a higher proportion of criminals compared with the country of origin. Less at stake in the country they’re leaving. Better able to adapt to the country they’re moving to. Criminality is a skillset works anywhere.

  6. In an enormous coincidence, nearly all the people stabbing each other in London are BAME, but only a racist would link this and incarceration rates.

  7. Yes ethnic urbanism is probably a major influence in this. London is about 45% BAME and, from memory, well over half at school age.

    I suspect there would also be a correlation to relative poverty levels as well – BAME tend to be poorer.

    You can argue about whether it’s the urbanism or the ethnicity that predisposes to criminality. Or a bit of both.

  8. It’s not as if there has been a large influx of children from conflict zones for whom violence and kill or be killed was the norm since they were born. Nor that the general population in which they concentrate might learn from them, if only for defence.

  9. You can argue about whether it’s the urbanism or the ethnicity that predisposes to criminality.

    You could compare rates with minorities such as Chinese, Sikhs, etc who are urban and ‘ethnic’ and their rates will be vastly lower than the usual suspects (pun intended).

  10. @ Rob – you can throw in Koreans, Afrikaners, Thais, Viets, Japanese, Jews and Ahmadiyya into that list.
    I think Tom Sowell said some good stuff about immigration – it’s depends on which immigrants, in which time period, and under what terms.
    The worst in my view are those with recourse to public funds who are granted asylum by EU countries and then immediately migrate here when they have EU citizenship.
    The best are those with visas stamped No Recourse To Public Funds.

  11. @Jonathan October 15, 2019 at 10:52 am

    Nobody could possibly have foreseen this. (cough, Enoch Powell, cough).


    On black crims and alleged poverty – bollocks, blacks steal for bling & status – many not moved on from when we bought a ton of “valuable” from them for a bag of glass beads

  12. It’s what it always is. Lower IQ populations combined with lower IQ cultural norms creates a society of criminals. In their home countries they’d be considered normal, in the west they are a barbarian class.

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