Har, Har, Har

Among those who fell short were the former Labour MPs Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger, and the ex-Conservative Sam Gyimah, who had been placed in London seats the Lib Dems believed winnable. Other former Tories such as Phillip Lee and Antoinette Sandbach also lost.

44 comments on “Har, Har, Har

  1. I disagree with Luciana Berger politically but she’s one of the few I have some sympathy, she was treated very badly by the Nasty party.

    Carolyn Flint is another, she was gracious in defeat and her interview after the declaration should be played at the first shadow cabinet.

  2. Nick Boles was self-aware enough not to stand for election.

    Floppy-fringed Europonce Dominic Grieve, on the other hand… 😀

  3. With BiND on that. I’d have been happy with Berger winning that seat, just as a fuck you to the Jew hating scumbags in Labour.

    I did a lot of canvassing for this election, and I saw the YouGov poll and it just wasn’t what I was hearing on doorsteps. Not just that people instantly said “don’t worry, we’re voting for you” as soon as they saw the rosette, but that I met not one switcher and that people in poorer areas were backing Conservative. And that people really, really didn’t like Corbyn, which meant they got out and voted. I put it down to just maybe people weren’t coming to the door, or that I missed a pocket of voters.

  4. Don’t talk shite Theo–Treason May would still be offering Drunker and Vertwat the use of her back passage if it wasn’t for Nigel and BXP. He is flawed–but so are we all. And your arrogant mob turned down a pact. You assume that ex-Labour would just vote Tory–wrongly.

  5. They’ve just been talking on the goggle box about what’s going to be in the Queen’s Speech next week, but no mention of a Bill to sell the NHS to Trump and his cronies. I’m disappointed 🙂

  6. “If it wasn’t for the Brexit Party, Cooper, Milicreep et al would have been out too. Thanks, Nigel.”

    Those were the real die-hard never Tory” votes and without TBP would have stayed at home or even voted Corbyn. Nigel’s startegy worked.

  7. Good to see Anne Main out too (St Albans), fucking trougher. She was the one who claimed for her daughter’s rent on expenses. For anyone other than an MP that’s fraud, but the rules are different for these people.

    OK, it has let a non-Liberal non-Democrat into Parliament, and worse one who hasn’t done anything except campaign on “LBQWERTY” issues for her whole life, but still.

  8. Great trolling from Boris, making his speech in from behind a podium that says:

    “The People’s Government”

  9. Mrs SE was asleep and I was listening on my headphones. My one out loud chuckle was when Williamson lost his deposit.

  10. One interesting point is that Corbyn lost because he listened to Keir Starmer and the remainers – by endorsing a second referendum he lost the Red wall – without getting any more seats in remain areas.

    in retrospect any election called on the basis of getting Brexit done was likely to lead to a majority for leave – the geographical spread of votes is such that there is a supermajority of constituencies that are in favour of leave. And Labour had done their best to block leave. (I wonder what might have happened if Jezza had gone with May’s deal)

    This piece is correct – yet Keir Starmer and his remainiac friends did the opposite.

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/02/04/labours-path-to-vicotry-is-through-leave-voting-conservative-marginals/

    Note the fact that this is wisdom after the fact.

  11. Whilst I have some sympathy for the individuals involved, there’s a great deal of schadenfreude here:

    Jennie Formby has written to all party staff. The message: £1.2m of Short money is about to go and job cuts are likely coming.

    Formby will meet with trades union political officers to discuss Labour’s funding situation. One trade union official says they will also include “tough and frank” conversations about the party’s direction.

    From Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) on Twitter, no link as they keep disappearing down the spamfilter.

  12. BIND

    Lets see if the poor Labour staffers get a decent settlement when they’re axed. We’re tired of hearing from assorted Labour and Union parrots about rapacious bosses of insolvent companies not paying off workers properly

  13. BF,

    Yes, I believe Labour has form in this area and they used to have staff on zero hours contracts.

  14. Steve/Ecksy/BiND:

    So far, the figures suggest that TBP cost the Conservatives seats winnable Labour seats. We await a deeper analysis.

    I voted BP at the euro-elections. I think NF is a politician of genius – but he lost it in the GE.

  15. One trade union official says they will also include “tough and frank” conversations about the party’s direction.

    Just at the moment they need to shrug off the Momentum/loony cell which now controls the party, they have to instead beg them for money.

  16. So far, the figures suggest that TBP cost the Conservatives seats winnable Labour seats. We await a deeper analysis.

    I don’t think many of the Labour voters who voted BP would have voted Tory. Very few. The BP took votes off Labour.

  17. “I don’t think many of the Labour voters who voted BP would have voted Tory. Very few. The BP took votes off Labour.”

    Perhaps. We await a deeper analysis. Though, say, Blyth Valley suggests otherwise. In some seats, even if a third of BP voters had voted Tory and two-thirds abstained, some Labour scumbags wouldn’t be returning to Parliament.

    Thanks, Nigel.

  18. Theo

    “So far, the figures suggest that TBP cost the Conservatives seats winnable Labour seats.”

    You’re not good with numbers, are you!

    “Analysis”?

    Just go and look for yourself, it’s not difficult, some of it is about as obvious as it gets. Where the Cons took seats, a reasonable number were thanks to the Brexit Party ripping votes away from Labour, but where the Con vote didn’t move much.

    Where Con and Brexit combined were more than the Labour vote (so called nasty Brexit Party split the vote, but only if you’re a biased Con!) – if the Brexit Party candidate stands down, the Con will likely not win (some Brexit Party votes will revert to Labour). And we know that’s true because some of the swings involved in those were simply too high for a Con to win. But, if the Con candidate had stood down, you have a guaranteed Brexit Party win (as pretty much all Con votes would have switched to the Brexit Party).

    There really are Labour voters up north who were never going to vote Conservative but were happy to vote for Farage – but that’s not the narrative you want is it Theo.

    “Thanks, Nigel.”

    Anyway, stop whinging! Boris did about as well as anyone could have hoped, and yes the Brexit Party did help him, both in Labour seats (as above) and (don’t forget) in Con seats where he stood all his troops down with nothing offered back at all and which helped see off a potential LD attack in the Con marginals. You tribal types can be bloody ungrateful..:)

  19. What’s frightening is 33% of voters voted for a Corbyn Marxist state

    .
    @Steve & Ecks

    +1

    I’m looking forward to a full analysis of how TBP would have done in North if Cons had stood down. Three seats I saw last night would probably have been TBP MPs

    Cons refused to stand down as CCHQ is so anti-Brexit & pro-Establishment they preferred a Labour MP to a TBP MP

    @Theo

    Huge numbers of died in wool Labour voters would never vote Tory, but did vote TBP; with no Tory, most would have voted TBP or abstained

  20. “Where Con and Brexit combined were more than the Labour vote”

    I’m not talking about those with small Brexit %’s, more those where the %s were more equal. Like Barnsley East etc (I think, I can’t be bothered to go back and list them out.). Cons were never going to win it, but if the Con had stood down there was a real chance of the Brexit Party taking it.

    But no, Boris chose not to engage. He called that strategy, not Nigel. And, in fairness, on balance it has worked out well for Boris. He can’t complain.

  21. Pcar

    “What’s frightening is 33% of voters voted for a Corbyn Marxist state”

    I’ll always struggle to get my head around that!

  22. I bothered on the one I mentioned above.

    There are a number that have broadly this sort of profile and where it is obvious that if the objective was truly to maximise the number of Brexit MPs, then if the Cons stand down, that’s a Brexit MP. And that’s true even if the Brexit vote is less than the Con vote – the Con can’t win it, but the Brexit candidate can (because pretty much all Con votes would transfer to the Brexit Party).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000542

    But that wasn’t Boris’s objective. And, as I say, can’t complain, no one owes anyone anything here, and it worked out well in the end.

  23. “if the objective was truly to maximise the number of Brexit MPs”

    Obviously I don’t mean “Brexit Party” MPs, I mean MPs supporting Brexit. Apols, typing in a hurry.

  24. What’s frightening is 33% of voters voted for a Corbyn Marxist state

    How have this Left mob reacted?

    AntiFa thugs marauding in London, “Kill The Racist Tories” etc placards

    @Theo

    Bolsover – Con gain
    Con +6.9%
    Labour (Dennis Skinner) -16.0%
    The Brexit Party +9.0%

    Don Valley – Con gain
    Con +1.4%
    Labour (Caroline Flint) -17.8%
    The Brexit Party +13.7%

  25. Richard Murphy 4h hours ago
    Out in my home town this afternoon. Couldn’t help looking at people and thinking that one third of them could not be bothered to vote. And one third of them voted Tory. I try to see the best in people. But there are times when it is hard….
    https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy

    Indeed, difficult to understand why one third of voters want to live in North Cuba or North Venezuela

  26. The Corbynites aren’t going to let go of Labour without a massive fight. They’ll defend their position to the last Momentum thug. Look at what they’ve achieved – with just about everything possible against them, a sh*t leader who is toxic on the doorstep, a fundamental policy that’s alienated a huge swathe of their traditional grass roots bloc vote, a massive scandal swirling around the entire party and implicating the leader himself, and they still got 33% of the vote and 200 seats. To a bunch of Trot wannabees who 5 years ago were fomenting the Revolution in dingy rooms above pubs, thats akin to winning the lottery. Imagine what they could get with a younger, more charismatic leader who was untainted by 40 years of political activism, and without having to invent a policy on something like Brexit that has to satisfy two completely incompatible voting blocs, the middle class SJWs and the working class social conservatives. Thats a very different prospect.

    They won’t roll over to let the Blairites take the Labour name back. The name is the brand, like a formerly successful band. Keep hold of that and the money, or power, will roll in…….

  27. PF/Pcar

    Look at the result for Doncaster North. If BP hadn’t stood, then it is likely Milicreep would be history:

    MILIBAND
    Ed Labour Party 15,740 (Elected)
    OTTEN
    Joe Liberal Democrat 1,476
    SALE
    Katrina Louise The Conservative Party 13,370
    STEWART
    Andy Brexit Party 8,294

    Great work, Nigel!

  28. Theo

    You really are not great at numbers..:)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000669

    Let me show you what happened in Doncaster North:

    BRX The Brexit Party +20.4 Gained
    CON Conservative +5.2 Gained
    LD Liberal Democrat +2.0 Gained
    YRKS The Yorkshire Party +0.6 Gained
    ED English Democrats -0.1 Lost
    LAB Labour -22.1 Lost
    And in addition UKIP lost 6% (didn’t stand this time).

    That 6% UKIP will have gone to TBP. Of the Labour 22% decline, roughly 14% will have gone to TBP, 5% to Cons and 3% to LD / other. Minor variations to that sure, but big picture.

    This is consistent with what is happening elsewhere. The Labour loss was often very much larger when a Brexit Party candidate stood. Ie the votes were not shifting from Labour to Con in those kind of numbers. But in places, the Labour to Brexit shifts were quite substantial, and the Conservatives took full advantage of that, winning some seats in places.

    That seat needed a 16.6% swing to get rid of Miliband. Without a Brexit Party candidate to strip away Labour votes, the chances of that were ZERO.

    Ie, if without the Brexit Party candidate doesn’t stand there, Miliband’s lead is higher than if they do stand.

    And – here’s the reality – if the Cons had stood down there (for TBP), there was an excellent chance (on those numbers) that most of those Con votes would have gone to the Brexit Party. Then Miliband would have gone.

    Don’t worry about it..:)

    “Great work, Nigel!”

    I love that wonderful Tory sense of “entitlement”…. Your votes belonged to us, you ghastly oik Farage…. And that continues to be the Cons problem, Theo! Every time someone like you says that, a normal, decent Con voter walks away….

  29. Jim,

    Good analysis but I think the key will be the unions who are still the paymasters and look out for a battle there. For example there’s been a running battle in the FBU who conspired to sack Paul Embery and are now on the hard left. If he can get back in and start turning them round there could be a move back towards the centre.

    It’s going to be a very long haul though. In the meantime the battle inside Labour is going to resemble the left/right battles of the French Revolution National Assembly when it moved in to Paris.

  30. Lets hope Dom Cummings has a good strategy for keeping those newly won ex-Labour constituencies.

    If I were Boris I’d give him plenty of time now to go have his operation and get well; then put him hard to work making sure everyone oop north can see the benefit of having a non-Labour government.

    They have a once-in-a-generation chance to wipe out Labour in England, as they have been in Scotland. I hope they don’t fuck it up.

  31. PF

    I think you misunderstand me. I’m not particularly concerned that the BP deprived the Tories of seats, but I am concerned that the BP allowed some socialists to hold on to their seats – because every socialist returned to Parliament is one too many.

    Much though I admire Farage, I think he made a gross error of judgement in this GE – and people from Mr Ecks to Arron Banks agree. That said, I will watch Farage’s re-branding of the BP as Reform with sympathy and interest. BoJo is a bit of a pinko in some respects, and needs some credible criticism and resistance from the right to keep him on course.

    Now, in Doncaster North, the 2017 result (excluding the minor parties) was:

    Edward Miliband Lab 25,711
    Shade Adoh Con 11,687
    Kim Parkinson UKIP 2,738

    Thus the main challenger to the ghastly Milipede was the Tories.

    The 2019 result was:
    MILIBAND Ed Labour Party 15,740

    SALE Katrina Louise The Conservative Party 13,370

    STEWART Andy Brexit Party 8,294

    It is not an unreasonable assumption to make that in a straight Tory vs Labour contest two-thirds of the BP vote would have abstained and one third would have gone to the Tories – and Milipede would have been history. Indeed, if only a quarter of the BP vote had gone to the Tories, the result would have been very close.

  32. It is not an unreasonable assumption to make that in a straight Tory vs Labour contest two-thirds of the BP vote would have abstained and one third would have gone to the Tories

    I think you are mistaken here. It was a hell of a lot easier for a “my father voted labour, my grandfather voted labour” type to put his cross next to a Brexit candidate than a “fucking tory”. And weaning those tribalists out of voting labour is vital for the future of our country.

    With hindsight, it would have helped if the conservative candidate had stood down in a few northern constituencies – but that sort of tactical withdrawal could also have galvanised the remoaners into making more of their alliance too. We saw the leave vote go almost entirely to Boris this time, and the remoan vote was spread between labour, the illiberal antidemocrats, the ecomentalists and in jockistan the scots natsies.

  33. Well there’s little doubt the Labour party is in devastated disarray. So the task ahead it to destroy the Tory scum. The rotting corpse maybe walking & talking. But it’s still a rotting corpse

  34. Theo

    “It is not an unreasonable assumption to make that in a straight Tory vs Labour contest two-thirds of the BP vote would have abstained and one third would have gone to the Tories”

    Maybe that’s where we differ here?

    In my view, there wasn’t necessarily a TBP vote – it didn’t exist until it stood. It was high where TBP piled money and resources into attacking Labour in particular areas, and let’s be clear, they did do precisely that. Where they didn’t throw resources, the swings / movements (and TBP vote) were considerably smaller. It just didn’t translate into the Cons grabbing that kind of swing instead of TBP, where the TBP didn’t make the concerted effort. It takes money and effort to persuade people to change their vote. TBP helped that cause.

    In Doncaster North, the Cons were 33% behind Labour (61% versus 28%). If TBP don’t stand, unless the Cons throw the kitchen sink at it, it’s pretty much safe. And the Cons didn’t have the resource to do that across the board, they targeted. TBP also targeted. Where they did, they helped Leave to achieve bigger falls in the Labour vote. In doing so they helped shift some of those across to the Conservatives. If they hadn’t targeted, the (bigger) swings against Labour don’t happen and hence some of those seats probably remain Labour.

    And hence, at the end of the day, the Leave side strategically got it right, whatever the apparent war of words between the Cons and TBP beforehand. First off, and which was important in terms of early momentum, TBP helped see off the LD attack on the Con marginal flank by standing down in 317 existing Con seats (and crucially before the names went in). And then, alongside the Cons in a dual prong attack, they tore into Labour in the north, mostly picking and choosing wisely.

    Yes, I agree with you, there will be seats that might have done this, might have done that. If TBP hadn’t stood at all, the Cons might have gained a few they didn’t – but probably not Doncaster North (the required swing was high), I can see others with lower target swings that fit that shape better – but may likely have lost more on the flip side that they otherwise gained. Much more importantly, that majority is better than any hoped for at the start.

    Might it have gone even better with Con/TBP agreeing and standing down in some selected seats? Tactically, almost certainly – but strategically I think BiW calls it right. The Leave side managed to do all this mostly “under the radar” without too much coordinated response from the other side. Farage violently “disagreeing” may even have been a bonus – perhaps bear in mind that yesterday his reaction was very much “yes, job done, I can relax now”. That perhaps doesn’t sound like someone who is bitter about not having any MPs in Parliament!

    Big picture, simply in terms of getting the numbers to deliver Brexit:

    Good result – well done the Leave side..:)

    No recriminations (not from me anyway). Whether I’m really sure that I trust Boris, or whether he turns out to be a pinko or not, well, that’s another day’s work! Boris saw what happened when the Cons reneged (8.8% in the Euros); I’m personally hoping that that % will haunt him / keep him honest for a while?

  35. @PF December 13, 2019 at 11:24 pm

    +1

    @PF December 14, 2019 at 12:47 pm

    +1

    ” Boris saw what happened when the Cons reneged (8.8% in the Euros); I’m personally hoping that that % will haunt him / keep him honest for a while”

    +10

    Notable how Theo ignored % swing to blame TBP. TBP taking Labour “never vote Tory” votes swung the election.

    @Theo, you come across as an aloof, entitled CCHQ twerp who believes ‘Your votes belonged to us, you ghastly oik Farage’

    @BiW

    +1 and +1

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