22 comments on “Most amusing

  1. “after 14 days, aren’t they all dead, in treatment or uninfected?” Surely some will have complained of a touch of ‘flu while spreading the infection around?

    If the disease killed virtually every victim quickly there would be no fear of a pandemic.

  2. Problem is that someone with the illness can pass it on to someone else who passes it on to someone else – who dies.

    The patient zeros in each country need tracing and their contacts need tracing and so on – or potentially hundreds or thousands of people who don’t need to will die.
    Ideally we’d ring immunise everyone in the 3rd degree contacts. But don’t think they’ll have a vaccine any time soon, takes too long to grow.

  3. The problem here is that it looks like the Chinese government are hiding their knowledge of the problem and the scale. You don’t lock down 15 cities based upon a flu virus with an R0 of 2 do you?

    No. The allegation is that the Chinese government knows the R0 (measure of contagion) is much higher, closer to that of chickenpox (10-12) or measles (12-18), which is being exacerbated by an extended incubation period of 7 – 11 days. There are unknown numbers of people walking around, infecting others without showing symptoms.

    That’s the reason they’ve quarantined the cities, to try and limit the spread.

  4. We have absolutely no idea of how many people who contract the virus become symptomatic and of those what percentage require hospitalisation. Until then it’s all headline fodder and a reminder to wash your hands before eating.

  5. Ljh – until tested we don’t know the death toll either.
    The official figures will presumably be those whose autopsy or whose testing while alive confirmed this virus. And may well be played down by some governments to prevent panic.
    After all people often die of other things. Someone with the flu dies of heart attack is it the flu or heart problems? Easier to say not the flu.

    John Galt – agree there is no reason to lockdown lots of places unless there is a patient zero in those places or regular transport links.
    Problem now is that with air travel the entire world is just a couple of days away.

  6. ‘In Wuhan, the city at the epicentre of the outbreak, construction of a brand new 1,000-bed hospital – which the government pledged will be completed within a week – also began, amid concerns about a shortage of beds and equipment.’

    They can build a 1,000-bed hospital in a week. Impressive.

  7. “They can build a 1,000-bed hospital in a week. Impressive.”

    Coronavirus: How can China build a hospital so quickly?

    1) Throw resources at it:
    Picture

    2)Use prefabricated buildings:
    “the Wuhan centre will be made out of prefabricated buildings.”

    3) Don’t worry about making it durable.
    “the [2003 Beijing SARS] hospital was “quietly abandoned after the epidemic ended”.

    I suspect that, if we had to do something similar, our Rolls-Royce civil service would take a week to draft the environmental impact consultation document.

  8. I suspect that, if we had to do something similar, our Rolls-Royce civil service would take a week to draft the environmental impact consultation document.

    They’d take a week to form the committee that schedules the series of meetings that will put together the first draft of the anti-slavery statement that will be required for all work carried out to tender for the contract to draft the environmental impact consultation document.

    FTFY

  9. The police just today here in Dongguan shut down all bars and restaurants indefinitely following the first confirmed case.

    I have a flight out tomorrow night.

  10. Gamecock: also something to do with the definition of hospital. I think what they’re throwing up is a warehouse to keep seriously ill people until they recover or die with a bare minimum of necessary medical technology thrown in eg oxygen, maybe positive pressure ventilation, some lab space and somewhere for medical staff to relax while on call.

  11. Gamecock: also something to do with the definition of hospital. I think what they’re throwing up is a warehouse to keep seriously ill people until they recover or die with a bare minimum of necessary medical technology thrown in eg oxygen, maybe positive pressure ventilation, some lab space and somewhere for medical staff to relax while on call.

    Yeah. They pulled a similar stunt in Beijing during the SARS outbreak.

    In 2003, the Xiaotangshan Hospital was built in Beijing in order to accommodate the number of patients showing symptoms of Sars. It was constructed in seven days, allegedly breaking the world record for the fastest construction of a hospital.

    At best it is a PR stunt and at worst a containment exercise. Bonus points for getting lots of diggers on hand for…other reasons…

  12. What’s going on? The Climate Change Scam is losing momentum. Despite the best effort of young Greta, the number of people who take it seriously is declining. But the Political Class needs something to frighten the people, so that they will look to the government for help.

    And here comes a convenient infection. Never let a crisis go to waste, as a member of the US Political Class once said.

  13. CJ Nerd.
    The local McDonalds in my village was built in less than a week.
    Prefab some stuff, get a bunch of people knowing what they are doing running the operation and – done.
    The difference with the hospital is scale. Just scale up the prepositioned stuff, the workers, decent management of the workers and done.
    Bunch of say 200 foot long 50 foot wide prefabs, multiple story easy enough. Times 30 or so …

    Bear in mind they have been known to build other stuff quickly – train line included (hey HS2 guys get your fingers out!).

  14. Gavin – its also a darn good opportunity to test the health service and other emergency services on infectious disease protocols, nothing better than a real life, messy, media sticking their nose in kind of drill.

  15. Europeans learnt a long time ago not to keep pigs and poultry in close proximity to each other or themselves. Birds potentiate viruses. It’s not a coincidence all these nasties come out of China.

  16. @BiCR

    +1 Most Flu seem to spread from China and usually avian or porcine origin

    Ebola & Aids from Africa, again non-human origin

    China’s “Wet Markets” are a virus mutating reservoir

    PJW deserves a BAFTA for exposing this

    Food: it’s drummed into us that raw poultry and pork is almost akin to nuclear waste

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