As I’ve been sayingJanuary 24, 2020 Tim WorstallEconomics46 CommentsNice to be proven correct, innit? The Brexit Bounce is here. previousNot sure that’s actually ChinesenextUpdating TW 46 thoughts on “As I’ve been saying” Newmania January 24, 2020 at 11:22 am ..,and when you are proved right I will be happy to applaud. Meanwhile , ” briefly slightly less shit than the unbelievably shit experience of 2019 ” doth not a bounce make. The UK grew at its slowest pace since 2008/9 end of 2019, and while there is a no doubt some relief to have avoided Corbyn as we have no about idea of the UK’s trading relationship with the EU whatever was wrong before is still wrong now . In fact as the Blue Nazi Party have signalled a hard Brexit and a return to the meddle spend and borrow formula that has already driven the country into the ground once the signs are bad. You say we can argue about whether Brexit is good or bad in the long run..really with who ? Option A – An economist – a business analyst – an actual exporter the treasury – the IMF the IFS the OBRC the Bank of England Option B – Some thicko with an Ingerlkand flag a beer gut and a fat orange wife in ugg boots The answer is option B For everyone else there is no argument and never was Diogenes January 24, 2020 at 11:53 am It’s OK Newmania, help is on its way “Too often, the stigma attached to mental health prevents people who are struggling from seeking the support that they need. The Duke of Sussex firmly believes that the management of mental wellness and mental fitness is the answer to most of our problems. From the armed forces community to marginalised youth, to speaking out about his own experiences, Prince Harry has become a figurehead of the mental health movement. After a year and a half of development, The Duke will be launching a special mental health series on AppleTV+ which he has co-created and executive produced with Oprah Winfrey. The aim of the series explores the stigmatisation of mental health and strives to equip people from all backgrounds with the right information and tools to thrive.” rhoda klapp January 24, 2020 at 12:05 pm So what you’re saying is, Newmania is Prince Harry? Bloke near Worcester January 24, 2020 at 12:08 pm Read that item in CT, then clicked through to the previous one ‘Quite So Ms. Toynbee, Quite So’ whose author is Richard Henderson. At the bottom of the article he is credited again, next to a picture of a bloke that looks uncannily like Tim W. Are we using pseudonyms today Tim? Tim Worstall January 24, 2020 at 12:17 pm I might be failing to use the editing tools properly….. Henry Crun January 24, 2020 at 12:23 pm Violet Elizabeth Newremania yet again denigrates those who voted for Brexit. It is as if he regards them as some sort of untermensch. 75 years on and some people still haven’t learned or realised where that leads. dearieme January 24, 2020 at 12:38 pm I didn’t start calling the Remoaners “quislings” until they made it clear that they would not abide by the vote in The People’s Plebiscite. I still think there’s a case for stringing up Bercow and the Supreme Court for sedition. Sadly, it would presumably have to be a figurative stringing up. I still have hopes, mind, that a literal stringing up might somehow be wangled for Toni Blair. The Meissen Bison January 24, 2020 at 12:41 pm TW: I might be failing to use the editing tools properly….. Yup, should have been the Brexit flounce from Newms Raffles January 24, 2020 at 1:18 pm …and yet in the DT yesterday I read that the Boris Bounce didn’t happen. We know this is true because the EU leaders told us. Jussi January 24, 2020 at 1:29 pm One swallow does not the summer make, or whatever, my portfolio was up 22.54% in 2019 and so far this year 1.55%…net worth change more than that due to gold etc. which had a good year. And this is not within taxman’s reach – I don’t believe in tax per se. Next year or this year could be devastating, in the long run (30+ years) my XIRR is 5.91%. Diogenes January 24, 2020 at 1:43 pm Everything is spiffing in EU La land Diogenes January 24, 2020 at 1:56 pm And in News that nobody needs to read, we can learn that Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett is no longer drinking at Wetherspoons. Poor Tim must be heartbroken https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/24/brexit-wetherspoons-31-january-leave-eu Newmania January 24, 2020 at 2:14 pm Thanks Henry, your refreshing and witty references to ‘Just William’, prompted me to look up Richmal Cromptons admirable life ( worth a look). You may not be aware of this, but before they were the TV series from which you apparently recall young Ms Langford `s turn; the stories appeared in,” Books”. I read them when I was 9 or 10 and re-read a few stories to my own children . Still wonderful examples of great tradition of gentle English humour. Dennis, He Who Made His High School Typing Team January 24, 2020 at 2:53 pm The UK grew at its slowest pace since 2008/9 end of 2019, and while there is a no doubt some relief to have avoided Corbyn as we have no about idea of the UK’s trading relationship with the EU whatever was wrong before is still wrong now . Positively Shakespearean in its elegance. The fact that he hasn’t convinced us of the merits of his argument simply points out just how deficient in intelligence we all are. Steve January 24, 2020 at 2:55 pm Still wonderful examples of great tradition of gentle English humour. So it’s just working class English people you hate. Dennis, The Swinging Tool of Capitalism January 24, 2020 at 2:56 pm I read them when I was 9 or 10 and re-read a few stories to my own children . Why do I find it difficult to imagine you reading anything that isn’t printed in block letters with a crayon? Oh, and nice typing. Again. Gamecock January 24, 2020 at 2:59 pm “European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020” What’s in it? ‘The UK will then move into an 11-month transition period, where the country will remain subject to the EU’s Customs Union and Single Market rules, as well as the free movement regime, while London and Brussels thrash out a future trade deal.’ So you aren’t actually leaving. ‘There can be no extension of the transition period, as that provision was ruled out in a clause of the withdrawal agreement bill.’ You’ll believe anything if you believe that. Bernie G. January 24, 2020 at 3:05 pm I think we can agree the world economy is not exactly firing on all cylinders, a Brexit bounce faces significant headwinds. That said – at least pensions and investment wise – we continue to do pretty well. While reputed to be the 6th richest country in the world, much of that wealth is in the hands of a small percentage of inhabitants. For most of us it’s probably closer to a still enviable 20th richest. I voted Brexit because the country seemed to be in a rut and going nowhere in particular, and I was bored. If it works, more power to our elbow. If not, c’est la vie. Steve January 24, 2020 at 3:29 pm Gamecock – We’re leaving. In 7 days time we’ll officially be an ex-Member State. The transition period is what it is. Half a century of economic, political, legal and institutional integration with Europe was never likely to be unpicked in one go*. This is big league yuge stuff, a second Glorious Revolution but with slightly fewer homoflexible Dutch chappies. *If you try sometimes, you just might find… you get what you need bloke in spain January 24, 2020 at 3:34 pm @diogenes Guardian’s CiF section reads increasingly like transcripts of people’s therapy sessions with psychiatrists, doesn’t it? Makes one wonder whether one should be paid for reading it. Steve January 24, 2020 at 3:59 pm BiS – there’s an amusing one today by cool wine aunt Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett, titled How Brexit drove my affair with Wetherspoons on to the rocks Which is pretty embarrassing. Even when I was an Olympic gold medalist alcoholic who could outdrink Dudley Moore’s character from ARTHUR, I avoided Wetherspoons like an AA meeting in a vivisection lab. Crap beer, less atmosphere than the Mare Tranquillitatis, and an obnoxious clientele of lairy mobile phone salesmen and cacophonous hen nights. Wetherspoons is the pub as reimagined by RyanAir and Clive Barker. It’s the reason why any self-respecting British tramp prefers to get quietly pissed on Dettol under a bridge. Even Satan himself wouldn’t set a cloven foot inside a Wetherspoons, because it has less soul than a troupe of ginger Morris Dancers. Roué le Jour January 24, 2020 at 4:11 pm Still paying them and still following their rules is not “leaving” in any meaningful sense, it’s more the equivalent of moving from the marital bed to the couch. And as to the time required to unpick agreements, that is exactly what the two years following A50 were for. Diogenes January 24, 2020 at 4:12 pm “and when you are proved right I will be happy to applaud” Newmy lies again Diogenes January 24, 2020 at 4:22 pm Steve, my local Spoons serves Ruddles at 1.69 per pint. Pub a few numbers down serves pissy lager at over 3.00 per pint. I can ignore the chuntering, smell of wee and old socks from Newmy for that bloke in spain January 24, 2020 at 4:23 pm Know what you mean about Wetherspoons, Steve. They converted & infested a church on Muswell Hill Broadway. It’s a pub for people have never seen a real one. Sort of place you find people from the outer suburbs, to whom Central London’s merely a rumour. Spend their evening looking at other people & thinking they must be having a better time than I am.. Bernie G. January 24, 2020 at 4:53 pm “Wetherspoons pubs are limiting parents to two alcoholic drinks each if they have their children with them. The rule came to light when the Robert Pocock pub in Gravesend, Kent, put up a poster publicising it. The chain said its guideline for staff applied in its pubs nationwide, and was designed to deter “unruly behaviour” by children left unsupervised. As far as Wetherspoons is concerned, a child is anyone under the age of 16.” Rob January 24, 2020 at 4:59 pm Oh, I thought that limit was two drinks per child. Andrew C January 24, 2020 at 5:01 pm First time I read the word “ejaculated” was in one of the ‘William’ books. Particularly liked the story about William’s older brother becoming a socialist. Said older brother’s belief in all property belonging to everyone was found wanting when William took his camera. Also, Jussi, my portfolio was in the doldrums during 2019 but has shot up around 25% since the election. So it all depends. Ejaculated. djc January 24, 2020 at 5:20 pm The first William stories were not written for children and, like much good childrens’ literature it always retains something to amuse the adults. William never ages but the time moves forward, so there is always an amused look at the adult world as viewed with both the naivete and common sense of the child. My first William book was a birthday present from my mother, I was eight, she herself had read them at the same age. Even then I was aware that this was a view into another world, a lesson in recent history, the past as another country. Theophrastus January 24, 2020 at 5:57 pm “I might be failing to use the editing tools properly…..” Please expand, Tim. Bloke in North Dorset January 24, 2020 at 6:00 pm “And in News that nobody needs to read, we can learn that Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett is no longer drinking at Wetherspoons. Poor Tim must be heartbroken” Does anyone seriously beive she’s been anywhere near a Weatherspoon’s except to poke her nose in so she can sneer at the incumbents? File under: Brixit Derangement Syndrome/Shit that didn’t happen bilbaoboy January 24, 2020 at 7:23 pm I like a proper pub as much as the next man. W’s is a good place to go with my 22 year old twins when I’m with them in England or Wales. Beer is cheap, they like the atmosphere and I can happily put up with it for the pleasure of their company. With my late Dad and for myself, I would have gone to a place where we could sit, chat and get gently oiled before strolling home arm-in-arm making what we thought were witty comments along the way. Westherspoons are offering a Brexit discount on Estrella Galicia, the best mass-produced Spanish beer. Try it! Pcar January 24, 2020 at 7:27 pm @Roué le Jour +10 May needs stringing up too for traducing what Art50 2 years was for @Dennis, Gamecock +1 The UK will then move into an 11-month transition period, where the country will remain subject to the EU’s Customs Union and Single Market rules, as well as the free movement regime, while London and Brussels thrash out a future trade deal. During this 11 month period EU will do all it can to destroy UK economy and introduce new laws forbidding a state leaving customs union This is good Captain America socks it to the doom-mongers Nigel Farage compares President Trump and (A-Political) Prince Charles on climate change Pcar January 24, 2020 at 8:56 pm The Bounce.. In a battle pitting Anglo-Saxon capitalism against the EU’s risk-averse financial dealings, London was always going to win out Britain’s economy lost a great deal of momentum during the three-and-a-half years of uncertainty that followed the referendum. But even the IMF, which once declared the impact of Brexit to be ‘bad, to very bad’, now concedes ‘diminishing concerns of a No Deal Brexit’. Revised forecasts for the Davos elites show UK output rising up to 1.4 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent next. That is far below trend growth, but looks healthier than Germany, France and laggard Italy. If getting Brexit done starts to release record levels of the £750 billion of cash sitting on the UK’s corporate balance sheets, it is possible that there could be upgrades during the forecast period. And it is not just financial firms which are putting their trust in the UK…. bloke in spain January 24, 2020 at 9:02 pm @bilbaoboy If I want to drink piss I put some ice cubes in a glass & take it with me next time I visit the aseos. At least I can vouch for its provenance. The words beer & spanish should never be in the same sentence. Dennis, He Who Has A Degree In Economics January 24, 2020 at 9:07 pm I think we can agree the world economy is not exactly firing on all cylinders, a Brexit bounce faces significant headwinds. Only if you exclude ‘Merica. We septics are doing just fine. Right now our economy is a V-12 at 6500 rpm. You want a real bounce? Cut taxes, cut regulations and negotiate favorable trade deals. Leaving the EU will help with #3, but if you woggies want a real bounce you need to get Boris and the Tories working #1 and 2. Steve January 24, 2020 at 10:14 pm Damn, I’m so sick with what I think might be (srsly, not even joking) Chinese flu,* that I didn’t see Diogenes mentioning the Wetherspoons woo before I did. *It’s fucking wild, been bedridden for a week and now I feel like fainting even while in bed. Probably karma for all my lacist jokes. Roué – Yeahbutnobut we’re not in Dr Pangloss’ world. Tis what it tis. If you’d offered me the current state of affairs in 2015 I’d have shook your hand off like Shakin Stevens, with Parkinson’s, on a particularly shaky minecart owned by a sheikh. BiS – Apt. BiND – I believe her, because I assume that outside the Guardian’s magic circle of incredibly posh and overpaid ageing commies, they probably get the rest of their contributors for the equivalent sum of a Pot Noodle and a wank. bilbaoboy – if it doesn’t have a thatched roof and a ruddy-faced barman who does lock ins for the locals, it’s not a real pub. Diogenes – can’t stand ale, it’s liquid heartburn. The water of life, at least 12 years in the cask, that’s the ticket. Roué le Jour January 24, 2020 at 11:56 pm Steve, Yeah, of course we’re making progress, but it reminds me of one of those thought experiments where you have to imagine an ant walking along a piece of elastic that is being stretched. One the one hand, the ant is moving, but on the other, it’s not getting any closer to the end. Gavin Longmuir January 25, 2020 at 2:21 am Roue: “… it’s not getting any closer to the end.” Depends on what the intended end is, as old Bill Clinton might have said. The politics are clear — Big back slaps all around now, with Boris being praised as the best thing since Sir Francis Drake. Followed by 11 months of dragging negotiations while public interest rapidly declines. Late in the year, old “Die in a Ditch” Boris quietly pushes through an extension to the negotiation period — because we are SO close. The Great British Public pays no attention since Megan is pregnant again, or Harry has filed for divorce, or there was a controversial judging call on Dancing with the Stars. Such is life. Roué le Jour January 25, 2020 at 4:14 am Gavin, My definition of end is firstly that the EU has no more influence over us than any other trading partner, and secondly that we don’t give them a bent farthing. My expectation is that negotiations will indeed conclude as promised at year end but somewhere along way Boris will have made at least some concessions regarding fishing rights, the NI border, immigration, contributions and abiding by their kangaroo court decisions. Bloke in Costa Rica January 25, 2020 at 4:29 am For me Wetherspoons, apart from the cheap but well-kept beer, had a huge factor in its favour: no fucking music. Bliss! Roué: if the elastic is stretching at a constant rate, say 1m per second and the ant is walking at a constant velocity, say 1mm per second, it will eventually reach the end, albeit not for a very long time (in this case if the elastic starts at 1m long then the ant will reach the end after 6.25 10⁴²⁶ years). Bloke in cornwall January 25, 2020 at 8:05 am All depends what the ant wants… 1) reaching the end – will take a very long time as per BiCR.. 2) getting away from the start – every step makes it better… In my mind, brexit is option 2. samuelbuca January 25, 2020 at 8:06 am (in this case if the elastic starts at 1m long then the ant will reach the end after 6.25 10⁴²⁶ years) It will snap a little while before that. The Meissen Bison January 25, 2020 at 9:16 am Gavin L: The Great British Public pays no attention since Megan is pregnant again Interesting idea – who did you have in mind as the father? Roué le Jour January 25, 2020 at 11:22 am BiCR, i.e. some time after the heat death of the universe. I was hoping to get out of the EU a little earlier than that. Mr Ecks January 25, 2020 at 2:36 pm Pcar–“During this 11 month period EU will do all it can to destroy UK economy and introduce new laws forbidding a state leaving customs union” Which amounts to fuckall unless BoJo wants to throw away all he has gained–and for what? Treason May was their creature but the EU still treated her like shite. Johnson only has to show a modest level of competence and patriotism and he should go down in history as equal to Thatcher (still not great in my opinion but worlds ahead of the 5 traitor PMs between Thatch and Bojo). If he actually turns out to any good –doubtful again in my opinion–he could be the best peacetime PM since 1900. Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.