Oh, really?

Tesla shares may yet crash and burn

The question is when, not if, isn’t it?

24 thoughts on “Oh, really?”

  1. Bloke in North Dorset

    Related:

    There’s a new podcast series out called WeCrashed. I’ve only heard the trailer but it sounds promising.

  2. “Herbert Diess, the German engineer who runs Volkswagen, is not given to hyperbole. Yet even he can’t help waxing lyrical about Tesla, the Silicon Valley upstart that recently overtook VW to become the world’s second most valuable carmaker (Simon Duke writes).”

    Sure, sure. Everyone’s looking to spend more than a BMW 3 series on a car that you have to wait around for half an hour to recharge every 200 miles and looks as cheap as a Mazda 3.

  3. Elsewhere I read that sales of electric cars were stagnant in the US despite more manufacturers now offering an all electric version of their small cars. This would presumably mean that the same number of buyers were being shared out more thinly. The article also suggested that people who buy an electric car go back to an ICE one when they change it.

  4. But who on earth would waste his own money on a BMW Series 3? The reliability tables suggest that German cars now sell only on an out-of-date snob appeal, being ill-made compared to Japanese and Korean vehicles.

    Tesla cars may yet crash and burn: and then be extinguished, then burst into flames again, then be extinguished, …

  5. Half an hour to recharge to drive 200 miles? Sounds good to me. I drive 20 miles 3 or 4 times a week to do my shopping and I have my own driveway and garage with the leccy consumer unit in it. Currently I buy petrol once a month and pay around £40. I wouldn’t mind charging the car twice a month. How much would it cost per charge?

    Disclaimer: I still prefer petrol cars and this combustion fad until I can get my own micro-nuclear power in a USB stick that I can plug into my car.

  6. Jussi,

    So: buy a £20K Skoda Octavia (brand new) and stick £40 of petrol in, per month. £20K/12/40 is about 40, so you can drive that cheaper than a Tesla for 40 years.

    I do think these plug-in hybrids are rather smart, though, because they’re a bit best-of-both-worlds. They do 20-30 miles on electric, then switch to petrol. So, for the person who travels to work and does some shopping, they’re just fine most days, but if they go to the seaside, they switch to petrol and you get the range.

  7. dearieme,

    “But who on earth would waste his own money on a BMW Series 3? The reliability tables suggest that German cars now sell only on an out-of-date snob appeal, being ill-made compared to Japanese and Korean vehicles.”

    I’m not saying either are great value, just that at least a BMW might impress a woman for less money. They’re well styled and look and feel expensive. Teslas look cheap, inside and out.

    If you’re spending more than a Toyota or VW, that’s the only reason to do so.

  8. BoM4, I totally agree, there are other points to this than the mere hassle of recharging which is not a hassle at all in itself. My ideal car for these narrow northern isolated country roads and lanes would propably be a used Fiesta 1.4L. I venture onto the motorway perhaps once or twice a year and mostly drive on b-roads.

    Betjeman’s view: https://youtu.be/Hb7cHPRr48w

  9. Electric cars are there for people with too much money to buy so that they can look down on plebs. from the heights of moral superiority.

    As far as the costs go, here’s what I found:

    Charging at home: Costs about £8.40 for a full charge.
    Charging at work: Many employers will install workplace charging points and typically offer free access throughout the day.
    Charging at public locations: Public chargepoints at supermarkets or car parks are often free to use for the duration of your stay.
    Rapid charging: Rapid charging points are normally found at motorway service stations and typically cost £6.50 for a 30 min, ~100 mile charge

    17% of motorway callouts are apparently due to running out of fuel. Run out of electricity and your warning lights won’t work. Better not do that on a ‘smart’ motorway, eh? Especially if you saw the Panorama programme on Smart motorways.

  10. Jussi,

    Depends on the road. But I generally take country roads if they’re only slightly slower than motorway route. For one thing, there’s more pubs, shops and cafes to stop off if you need one, it’s generally more pleasant, but it’s also that if anything goes wrong ahead, you aren’t stuck. Two cars have an accident, you divert off the road, and find a way around them. On a motorway, you can be stuck for hours.

  11. “Run out of electricity and your warning lights won’t work. ”
    Yeah, well… The car’s going to do a controlled powerdown long before it bottoms the battery. There’ll still be several kilowatts in it available for low drain. At something like about 12W\h for LED blinkers, you could probably run them for the rest of the year.

  12. The dirty secret is that electric cars are really, really nice to drive. Smoother than a V8, instant torque, no gearchanges, silent at low speed, no f’ing stop-start motor cutting out the engine just as the lights turn green.

    But they’re a luxury item; there’s no sign that they’ll ever be cost-competitive with an internal combustion engine.

  13. Bloke in North Dorset

    Electric cars are horses for courses, as it were.

    A few years ago I had to downsize my car because we wanted room on the drive for a motorhome and an XJ6 really isn’t practical on these roads, not least because it was costing a small fortune in shredded tyres. Having thought long and hard what to buy I decided to go from the sublime to the cor-blimey and test drove a Smart for Two. It was such fun I decided to get one, after checking I could get my golf clubs in and all my paraphernalia when I go sailing.

    I’m now in the position of considering giving it to my son and getting something else and have been thinking something electric, again just for the fun and knowing that, as Andrew says, its a luxury item. I only have basic 3 trips the furthest being no more than 50 miles return so I’m considering the eclectic Smart car. The range is only 70 miles so I’m currently using an app that logs all my driving and based where I’ve told it there’s charging points it will work OK.

    We’ve got a second car and for longer journeys I’m usually in the motorhome anyway.

  14. Reports of Tesla’s demise are grossly exaggerated.

    After years of genuine problems, they soldier on. This cat won’t die. Though if it died today, we’d all nod, “Yeah, I was expecting that.” It lives, yet, if it died, no one would be surprised.

    It survives because Musk found an excellent niche – high end electric cars – to go after. He CREATED the segment. Even his perennial mismanagement hasn’t killed it.

  15. “How much would it cost per charge?”

    Any ideas on what the split is between the cost of the electricity itself versus the cost of battery degradation from each cycle? When you fill up your petrol car, it isn’t like you need to worry you’re degrading your expensive fuel tank by doing so. (Though you might want to figure out the depreciation associated with a tank’s worth of mileage and how much closer it brings your next servicing bill – the latter I understand is not so bad with electrics due to fewer moving parts?)

  16. Wise man, BiND. The key thing before buying an electric car (or plug-in hybrid, like mine) is to know your driving patterns. All the folks round here who have pure electric, also have an internal-combustion car for longer journeys. I doubt there are many people whose only vehicle is a pure electric.

    Verb. sap. – take manufacturers’ range claims with a pound or two of salt. They will have been tested on pan flat surfaces with over-inflated tyres and on a nice hot, calm day (just like mpg figures). In winter, range can drop by 25% and that’s before you start using lights, wipers, heating etc. And even on my best days, I don’t achieve the ‘official’ range, because there are lots of hills where I live.

  17. I have a BMW i3 electric only. It’s great. But….two points:
    1. The range is only 130 miles
    2. Relying on getting a recharge anywhere other than at home is a waste of time

    So..for local pottering it is super. But for anything else and for those who don’t have a home chargepoint it is a complete waste of time.

  18. “because there are lots of hills where I live”
    The car should recharge on the down slopes.

    It does, but the process is (inevitably) quite inefficient.

    Gamecock gets wrinkles from smiling while driving his GT350R.
    We’ve got an additional ‘fun’ car, too 🙂

  19. My daily driver (I’m retired).

    I imagine there is quite a good supply of MGs, Triumphs, and Healeys over there. Lots of fun to be had.

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