In his forthcoming book, Our Final Warning, Mark Lynas explains what is likely to happen to our food supply with every extra degree of global heating. He finds that extreme danger kicks in somewhere between 3C and 4C above pre-industrial levels. At this point, a series of interlocking impacts threatens to send food production into a death spiral. Outdoor temperatures become too high for humans to tolerate, making subsistence farming impossible across Africa and South Asia. Livestock die from heat stress. Temperatures start to exceed the lethal thresholds for crop plants across much of the world,

Hmm. August average high temp in Edinburgh is 3 degrees less than that in Brighton.

Wheat grows in both places, doesn’t it?

38 thoughts on “Oh, Cool!”

  1. Our final warning? Is that a promise? We have had a few of these before, you know. Roughly one a decade since 1970.

  2. Outdoor temperatures become too high for humans to tolerate, making subsistence farming impossible across Africa and South Asia.

    Some sort of modern farming would be in order then?

    Only in Guardian moron land do people think subsistence farming is a good thing which ought to be preserved.

  3. @Rob “Roughly one a decade since 1970.”

    There seems to be a final warning once a week these days.

  4. Fucking Moonbat again.

    If we get past this lockdown shite without major economic disaster.Which each passing hour makes less likely–mayhap people will finally “get it” en masse that officials are liars never mind prof liars like Moobat. That I pray that should finish the eco-freak doomsters for good.

  5. In other news, farmers, capitalist profiteers that they are, plant whatever will grow and sell. If the weather changes, so does the crop.

  6. The Meissen Bison

    Wheat also grows in places like Saudi Arabia or India which grows more than France Germany and the UK combined.

  7. The warming will convert vast areas of Siberia into potential sources of temperate zone crops. When I pointed this out to an otherwise serious academic issuing warnings of reduced crops he responded that he was just going to catalogue the downsides without considering the offsets: his remit did not require him (I sensed that it did not permit him) to use his initiative/commonsense to provide a balanced or comprehensive report.

  8. If the temperature rises much above 15C in Edinburgh, everyone starts self-isolating for fear of sunstroke.

  9. Ecksy – I fear that you are going to be disappointed. Fear makes people more welcoming of authoritarian control. When the virus threat recedes we will be told it was only because of oppressive measures and that the models were right all along. And if those virus models were ‘right’ then that means the eco-scaremongering is ‘right’ too.

    An interesting take from some other modellers. https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

  10. “above pre-industrial levels: ah, but which? The Holocene Climate Optimum (though I don’t suppose it’s still called that), the Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, or the Medieval Warm Period?

  11. WKPD: “The Holocene Climate Optimum warm event consisted of increases of up to 4 °C near the North Pole (in one study, winter warming of 3 to 9 °C and summer of 2 to 6 °C in northern central Siberia).”

    To fail to mention this is, in the context of that article, to lie by “suppressio veri”.

  12. “The Holocene Climate Optimum warm event consisted of increases of up to 4 °C near the North Pole (in one study, winter warming of 3 to 9 °C and summer of 2 to 6 °C in northern central Siberia).”

    5,000 years ago, the thermometer hadn’t been invented. Writing was new. It’s all proxies. Worse. There are no proxies for the North Pole. It’s all completely made up. They tell us they know the temperature of the North Pole 5,000 years ago? Even a journalist should see the problem with that.

    Climate “science” is the science of fake precision.

  13. On the subject of Greta self-diagnosing her bout of COVID-19, it appears she’s already cured herself, (and possibly her father as well.) I do hope she didn’t go to near that lovable old misanthrope, Sir David, (Save the Polar bears, kill the people) Attenborough, although it appears that he’s got a similar deal with Old Nick as Soros.

    Perhaps though, dear Greta did get a bit too close to Prince Charlie, since it seems that he’s got it. Interestingly, Camilla hasn’t succumbed so the royal couple have obviously been practising social distancing.

  14. Charlotte Observer:

    ‘The “stay-at-home” order — prompted by the spread of COVID-19 locally — is similar to the “shelter-in-place” orders issued in other jurisdictions. Mecklenburg County’s order will be in effect for the next three weeks, starting 8 a.m. Thursday, March 26, County Manager Dena Diorio said.’

    ‘The order does not apply to homeless residents, Diorio clarified.’

    “Officer, you can’t prove I’m not homeless!”

    Gamecock has a brake lever on order from BMW dealership in Charlotte. If they don’t get it in today, He’ll be riding with a brake lev for 3 weeks.

  15. “Climate “science” is the science of fake precision.”

    To put it another way; never mind the accuracy, look at the resolution.

  16. Kevin B

    “Interestingly, Camilla hasn’t succumbed ….”

    That’ll be the fags – will support the theory of somebody on this site that smoking is a prophylactic.

  17. Funnily enough was just reading a book which mentioned how the Inuit spread to the East was likely triggered by the Medieval Warm Age as they would have followed the migration of whales along the Northwest passage.
    It is interesting that when you point out to the ‘have to believe the science, the scientists all agree’ crowd that science also provides plenty of other examples of climate change that had nothing to do with man they somehow think it’s different.

  18. Looking at Wikipedia and his own website Lynas seems to be an unqualified know-everything ecolarmist who doesd very well out of Daily Mail ecopalypse articles

    Why should anyone care about his writings?

  19. Also worth pointing out that the cuddly, friendly nature loving Inuit likely learned the skill of building igloos from the tribes they encountered, the Dorset people.
    Not surprisingly their disappearance is now attributed to climate change or diseases, used to be thought that the Inuit wiped them out as there were oral records of conflict

  20. @starfish Nobody should have to care about idiots like this Lynas character, but unfortunately he is being given a platform, and some people will believe him. So we have to care, as evidenced by the fact you took the trouble to post in this thread.

  21. I live in a place where it gets to 48C in the summer. We still go outside and heavy labor is performed under those conditions from sunrise to sunset. *Somehow*, people in the Middle East have been growing food under even hotter conditions. I somehow doubt that a small rise in *average* temperature is going to drive the *globe* into a death spiral. There might be some marginally habitable farmlands that are driven out of production but wouldn’t that also mean that some that were marginally too cold will be able to be farmed now?

  22. I’ve had the same discussion about the tree line, if it warms then won’t it move North which means more trees which we are told is good and part of carbon capturing.
    The idea that they are discussing a highly complex system not an object seems lost on most of them. They really do think if you change X there’s only one single change not a series of overlapping or opposite changes and that there’s a net position to be calculated

  23. “The idea that they are discussing a highly complex system not an object seems lost on most of them.”

    They can’t accept that they are ordinary critters, riding on a big dirt ball around a mediocre star. Get ’em to look at Perseus with binoculars. It will give them a deep chill.

  24. Edinburgh is usually 5c colder than London, add in wind chill and worse. Been there wearing winter coat in August. Edinburgh Tattoo advises punters to wear hat, coat & gloves

    “Our 624,897th final warning?”

    “Outdoor temperatures become too high for humans to tolerate”

    Maybe he will explain how humans tolerate Siberia to Dubai temps now and for thousands of years: -50c to +50c

    Bats live in Alaska & Dubai, so not only humans cope

  25. Presumably not a single grain of wheat is ever grown, nor a single cow ever raised in Australia then……………

  26. Tim, you have again swallowed the alarmist narrative of promoting the worst case scenario as inevitable and “business as usual.” The IPPC Bible of Holy Climate Dogma says 2.1C and over the last couple of decades even that looks on the high side.

  27. I actually have a paper in review at present on this point. Insisting that the worst case scenario is not business as usual, isn’t going to happen and never was anyway. We’ll have to wait and see whether it gets published….

  28. “you have again swallowed the alarmist narrative”

    No he didn’t.

    ‘Hmm. August average high temp in Edinburgh is 3 degrees less than that in Brighton.

    Wheat grows in both places, doesn’t it?’

    A statement that he is skeptical of what Lynas said.

    Frankly, I thought it refreshing that Timmer was showing skepticism.

  29. @Gamecock

    Yes: wheat, strawberries etc all grown around Edinburgh and much further north too

    Quaker & Scott’s oats factories in Fife

    Scottish Straw, Rasp etc berries in UK supply model as they ripen later thus Tesco etc buyers move up UK as season progresses

  30. Wut? I quoted Tim. Then complemented him for his skepticism.

    “@Gamecock

    Yes: wheat, strawberries etc all grown around Edinburgh and much further north too”

    Well, uhh, okay.

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