Anyone with Bloomberg?

Or the like. Would be interested to see the full text of this note referred to here:

The U.S. economy could shrink 4% this quarter and 14% next quarter, and for the year is likely to shrink 1.5%, a JP Morgan economist said on Wednesday, in one of the most dire forecasts yet issued for the potential hit from the coronavirus epidemic.

U.S. chief economist Michael Feroli al

There’s a hell of a difference between a 14% for a quarter decline and a 14% for a year. So, I’d like to see what he’s saying in detail.

7 thoughts on “Anyone with Bloomberg?”

  1. I’d be amazed if it’s only 15% on the year. I’m fairly convinced the market hasn’t priced the impact of COVID-19 right.

  2. “J.P. Morgan expects Euro area GDP to contract by 0.8% in the first quarter, while 1H20 U.S. GDP to decline to 0.5% followed by a rebound to 2.25% in 2H20 for a full year forecast of 1.4% growth.”

  3. It’s not missing a decimal point. This is the ‘China to drop by 40%’ report I referenced earlier. As I said, I wonder what the effect will be if that happens.

  4. Don’t Yanks usually give annualised figures when they are discussing months and quarters?

    Anyhoo, 1.5% seems to me to be so optimistic I’d doubt the honesty of it.

  5. So that’s where the recently unemployed Brexit financial doomsayers went to find new employ.

    But anyway didn’t this already happen when Trump took over – or…?

  6. The way the USA expresses this is confusing:
    So the ONS might say there was a 3.5% drop in GDP in the 1st quarter. The US gvt would say that’s an annualised rate of 14%.
    What I don’t understand is how this funny system operates at the extremes – let’s say there’s a 25% drop in GDP in the first quarter – if that rate was to continue it would mean a 68% drop in national income over a year ( 1-Power(0.75,4)). The US gvt would say that’s a 100% annualised rate of GDP drop meaning literally no value added whatsoever at year end.

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