Coronavirus holiday cancellations

The local rag tells me:

60% of tourists cancel holiday bookings to Algarve
Portugal Resident-Mar 9, 2020
It’s not just that cancellations are flooding it, it is that there are ‘no sales for the summer’, he explained. People are so concerned about the risk of …

This article having been taken down. As the NYT tells us the truth:

The Portuguese Hotels Association (AHP) said its establishments were “already experiencing major cancellations” of bookings, without specifying further.

Algarve’s AHETA hotel association said 60% of the 411 hotels in the region, famous for its beaches and golf courses popular with tourists especially from Britain, have already seen cancellations

Ah, a slight difference.

And here’s what I want to know. I’ve got to buy some flights for the summer. When will the price bottom out?

12 thoughts on “Coronavirus holiday cancellations”

  1. I don’t believe only 60% of hotels have had cancellations. They will all have had at least 1 cancellation. People on non-refundable packages will just no-show (some after failing to argue the toss).

    As for your flights, the airlines are cutting capacity to stop that bottoming-out being such a bummer for them.

    This leads into a question or three M’Lud may be in a position to answer noncommittally and without liability. If I’m promoting an event which may have to be cancelled because some idiot government has panicked and banned gatherings of the size of said event, what are my liabilities for consequential losses to those who have booked travel and accommodation in the hope of attending such event, and can I get my money back from the venue on the basis that the event packages they have sold us has basically become illegal?

    If I’m a consumer attending said event, can I cancel non-packaged travel/accom for a full refund on a force majeure basis? Or is force majeure something only billion dollar businesses get to do to the little guy, not the other way around?

  2. Government here is in a pickle – they announced today that arrivals from the UK must self isolate for 14 days…

    Then they realised it would be fairly damaging for holidaymakers so changed it to ‘self monitor’.

    Unfortunately, Germany is still covered in the self isolate thing and my new tenant is arriving from Germany on April 2nd…

    *shakes head*

  3. Bloke in North Dorset

    Virgin is reported to be running near empty flights in and out of Heathrow to keep their slots, so presumably other airlines are as well. If that’s the case there should be some cheap long haul flights available.

  4. Here are the views of My Source in Singapore based on his conversations with expat Chinese and Japanese and with native Chinese Singaporeans.

    (0) It probably goes without saying but they all think the Singapore government and people are doing a grand job.
    (i) Nobody believes the figures from China.
    (ii) They all think that the figures from South Korea are probably the best quality available from countries with lots of patients. (They also think the S Koreans are doing a grand job.)
    (iii) Because of the Olympics the Japanese figures are not to be trusted.
    (iv) Inference from absence: nobody is mocking the figures from Taiwan, Hong Kong, or Vietnam.
    (v) Widespread mockery: the idea that there are next-to-no cases in Malaysia and Indonesia.

  5. How much are they quoting, now, Tim? It’s downside/upside calculation. Let’s say current for July is 50 quid. Cheapest flight I’ve ever got into Malaga was £16. So you might have 35 of potential. What’s a normal booking for Faro in August bought March? ‘Spect the upside’s a lot more than 35 quid. Why be greedy?

  6. Our office in Edinburgh seems to be rapidly preparing for total lockdown with everyone working from home. This despite no cases of anyone being one of the walking undead or having visited anywhere at high risk

  7. I’d had long-term plans to go to Japan in May. I need to watch the prices like a hawk to swoop down and get a bargain.

  8. Tim

    I’m still planning to come out there 23-26 March.

    Could you all stay indoors until I get there.


  9. Colleague just told me fares from Vancouver to Japan have halved as they are looking for a deal and apparently even internal flights to Calgary are dropping, can get a flight and rent a basic car for the weekend for the cost of the fuel to drive there yourself

  10. @BiG

    You could try the NI Argument: Gov’t has failed to protect life and property, therefore Gov’t pays for all damage – Gov’t did pay

    iirc Riot Act has something similar

    Mr Lud?


    Talking of Edinburgh – a lot are not happy with Gov’t figures: “x people in Lothian infected”

    imo figures should be more granular eg 10 people in Lothian infected, 9 in Roslin and 1 in…”

  11. It’s still your metric, Tim. If the price eases to midway between what it is now & say 20 quid, that’s your buy point. But you take the risk you might not be able to use the tickets. It’s always nice to be able to get in at the bottom & out at the top. But the way to play any market is in smaller, safer profits.

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