I think this is unlikely

Worldwide infections have grown to more than more than 86,000, according to the Johns Hopkins university tracker, while cases inside China stood at 80,860 as of Monday. Deaths outside China have risen to more than 3,241, while deaths in mainland China stand at 3,208 as of Monday.

That implies a death rate of over 50% among those outside China.

9 thoughts on “I think this is unlikely”

  1. These numbers are meaningless. We don’t know the reliability of the test, how many false positives, howmany false negatives. We also know there’s a shortage of tests and that the criteria for using them are highly variable both by nation and over time, so everything is a huge guess. I suspect the young health professionals who have succumbed like Dr Li received a large dose of inhaled viruses which rapid overcame normal defenses before they could fully mobilise. Most community acquired infections are transmitted within families, again large dose due to confined quarters. I guess most infectionsfrom a low dose inhaled in a public place are slight to unnoticeable.
    If chloroquine is used to treat severe cases with good results putting the entire elderly population on a weekly dose as one does to prevent malaria should stop the panic and keep the ICUs open. (At prophylactic doses it’s safe, whole populations used to take it half the year until plasmodium vivax became resistant). It works by raising intracellular Zn++ which inhibits viral protein production by the corona virus family.

  2. Ljh

    Interesting… And if what you say about chloroquine (or maybe something else) does come into play in any short time scale, that’s going to create an almighty reversal in sentiment – and perhaps not least in the financial markets (wrt Tim’s Shell thread).

  3. PF: the theory is sound and replicable in laboratories, it just needs to be demonstrated on populations in doubleblind trials in China and S Korea. It came on the market in 1938 and costs about the same as aspirin. In the meantime up your tonic intake, preferably with gin, on the hope that the related quinine in it has a similar protective action.

  4. Not infections, reported infections – not the same thing. Any mortality rate based only on reported infection will be higher than actual.

    And apparently the most deaths in China, thus highest mortality rate, occurred around Wuhan. Outside that locality mortality rate was much lower. Italy’s body count thus mortality is also very high compared to other European Countries.

    Including a cluster in statistics and using that over the whole range gives a misleading result. The death rate from Luftwaffe bombing in London during the Blitz was high, applying that rate to the entire population of the UK to predict death rate from aerial bombing for the rest of the War would have been very misleading.

  5. Ljh

    In the meantime up your tonic intake, preferably with gin

    Always happy to accept sound medical advice. I’m out of gin, so I’ll have to pop down the off-licence..

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