Not as appalling as it seems

The mortality rate for patients put in intensive care after being infected with Covid-19 is running at close to 50%, a report has revealed.

You only put extremely ill people into ICU, a goodly portion of the extremely ill people you put into ICU die. This is not a surprise.

What would be interesting to know is what is the normal survival rate?

And do note, this is the number of those out of ICU in one way or another. Those still in aren’t as yet in that mortality rate.

It also appears to be – appears – those with Covid 19, not those there because of it.

Finally, of course, it says nothing at all about those infected who don’t need ICU.

18 thoughts on “Not as appalling as it seems”

  1. And, to look at it a different way: All other things being equal, can some medics have better ICU outcomes on average than other medics?

  2. My daughter is a physiotherapist at a hospital in outer London. I spoke to her last night & she says that their ICU capacity is full of people on ventilators and several of the other wards have been turned over to people on 60% oxygen.
    I wouldn’t expect a 50% mortality rate in ICU. I could believe 10-25% though under normal conditions.

  3. Bloke in North Dorset

    Its starting to rise in Dorset with 3 more deaths in Dorchester hospital. It won’t be said, but we should be expecting higher rates here because, as is often reported, Dorset is the county with the oldest population.

  4. Some of our favourite diseases are making a comeback for some reason: TB, Rickets to name a couple. It’s a complete mystery.

  5. Normal ICU mortality rates are around 10% to 25% per admission. It depends what you mean by ICU, where you are, and various other things.

  6. I don’t fear coronavirus. I fear pre-existing conditions. They’re what kills ya.

    I wonder how many pre-existing conditions are not discovered until they are in the hospital?

  7. Overall it is still killing the old mostly with existing problems. At no greater –so far as can be discerned–rate than ordinary flu.

    Those expecting salvation by test are also not accounting for the vast rates of false pos/neg results.

    The media are pushing every young death they can to keep Project Fear going. But ordinary flu carries off several hundred young and able-bodied people each year in the UK.

  8. We seem to be sacrificing the economy on the altar of the NHS. Surely, to save the NHS we should lock down the doctors and nurses, because they are most at risk, so that we have a fully functioning NHS when the virus burns itself out.

  9. BlokeInTejasInNormandy

    It looks like the incidence and lethality of the Dreaded Lurgy 19 isn’t much worse than a bad flu season.

    However, that doesn’t mean it’s all an invented flap.

    The problem is that apparently other lurgies which require ventilator treatment typically occupy said ventilator for 2-4 days, while Lurgy19 occupies a ventilator for 10-23 days.

    This is an effective 10x worse than normal lurgies in terms of hospital resource needs.

    I did not get my ventilator numbers from a reputable source (it was Cuomo public statement) and so treat with usual suspicion

  10. BiTejas–23 days on a ventilator seems like one Hell of a long time. Do you know why the much longer period with coro?

  11. BlokeInTejasInNormandy

    Mr Ecks

    No, I don’t.

    I suspect it’s to do with folk with L19 not dying quickly enough, so they keep ‘em on because a surprising number recover even if a long time thereon.

    But that doesn’t explain it.

    If true does explain overwhelming of resources everywhere.

  12. Despite advances in antibiotics and vaccines, as well as publication of guidelines for the management of patients with hospital-acquired and community-acquired pneumonia [ 2 – 4 ], the mortality rate for patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) with pneumonia remains substantial, ranging from approximately 15 to 50 %
    That’s from the site.
    The Guardian has been trawling preliminary reports and chooses to write about the worst one they could find.
    Small sample, but still in the upper end of the range for pneumonia.

  13. Try anything? Yes, test as rapidly as possible, especially on near terminal & terminal – use the crisis to bulldoze regulators. As Chief Fear Monger Prof Ferguson now admits, most would have died soon anyway

    FDA approves plasma therapy treatment for coronavirus

    Repurposed Drugs Offer Shortest Path to Coronavirus Treatment

    CytoDyn’s therapy used to treat New York coronavirus patients shows ‘immunological benefits’

    China/Wuhan Zero New CV-19 Cases A Lie

    Deaths? ONS stats I posted yesterday show no change in normal weekly mortality rate from November 19 to date. However, speeding recovery is beneficial

  14. When I was still going into the office we noticed that a food court downtown had been closed down and in the middle of it was a large structure that looked to be made out of the sort of insulated panels you see in industrial freezers. Conclusion we came to was a temporary morgue and the adjacent conference Center likely being earmarked as a temporary hospital, going to be interesting to see how quickly they remove it or how they explain it.
    We’ve had significantly less deaths than H1N1 and yet there was nothing like the level of restrictions and emergency planning we see now.

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