Seems entirely possible

Is there a safe way for me to enjoy casual sex during the coronavirus crisis?
I have always practised safe sex. Is it possible to find a way to engage in sex with strangers during the current situation?

It’ll be a little less safe, obviously, but the general mechanics will be the same.

66 thoughts on “Seems entirely possible”

  1. This is how civilisation ends. Not with a bang, but with the subsequent whinge of post-coital tristesse to a non-judgmental counsellor.

  2. BlokeInTejasInNormandy

    Pretty straightforward..

    Without touching anything except yourself, both strip off and get into the shower. Wash all of you with soap. When cleaned, thoroughly wash all of other with soap, always facing away from each other.

    Hot-air dry.

    Each place large plastic bag over head.

    Enjoy for as long as you can.

  3. Off topic(ish)
    There’ll be a big jump in the deaths figures coming out today as the UK is now talking Italian:

    The figures due out in the coming hours are based on the number of deaths registered ‘where Covid-19 is mentioned anywhere on the death certificate’.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8170065/UKs-coronavirus-death-toll-HIGHER-official-figures.html

    The expected spike comes after Monday marked the first time the daily increase in deaths had fallen for two days straight.

    Yes, what a strange coincidence. As if by magic, the book-keeper appeared.

  4. PJF, denier.

    Back on topic, what’s a hazmat onesie if not a giant prophylactic? Can’t see what the bloke’s problem is meself.

  5. PJF–Blojo prob susses by now he has made a mega-mistake-likely laid on him by the SCS as an act of revenge-attack. But he thinks he can “brass it out” and do some Itie style book fiddling by including as many deaths as he can under coro.

    I don’t think it will work.

  6. PJF
    Ajusting the data to suit the narative. Is it me or is the virus starting to look like the climate scam? Are we really shutting down Western Civilization because a statistically insignificant number of people got sick and died?

    Anyway, as Pattaya is closed for the foreseeable future safe sex is something I no longer have to worry about.

  7. OT, and I appreciate that I am unusual on here in that I tend to be more concerned about the Kung Flu than most on here (bit weirdly, since I appear to be younger than many, fitter than most – I would assume – and generally not that concerned with my own health and safety), but do those who are more blasé believe that 61 Italian doctors have died from (or with, if you prefer) this in the last five weeks, or not?

    That is, do you think that that is a straightforward lie?

    Assuming that you accept that it is true, what extrapolations do you make from that fact?

    I’m not being snarky, I genuinely would like to know. I hear lots of people saying it’s just a nasty flu, but I’m not aware that many doctors die of/with the flu in a given season? I guess some must – but 61 in five weeks?

    I also find it strange – again, not snarky – that some of you guys appear to be thinking that Johnson and others are almost inventing this crisis, because the death rate is piddling, while relying essentially on Chinese government figures to make that case. If 2,500 people died in Wuhan out of x00,000, you’ve got a point. But some people in Wuhan say that’s bollocks, and more like 40,000-50,000 died, and every time a doctor tries to say something along those lines he or she is grabbed and disappeared by state goons.

    My cousin is a newly qualified doctor in the Hereford area and has been moved into ITU from geriatrics, where he was doing a stint. He says it’s a bit like a war zone, which is completely against what the government is saying ironically.

  8. Also, what exactly do you think is Johnson’s motivation for creating the crisis, if that’s what he’s done? We on here are all generally against too much state power – Newmania apart – and we tend to cover the spectrum from classical liberal to libertarian to virtual anarchist, but I just can’t see the motivation. No-one wins from this, certainly not Johnson. The state power won’t stay in place, people won’t stand for it (I accept this is just an assertion, but I don’t believe that it can or they will), and if anything anyway the government was (by its lights) slow to bring it in – people were calling for lockdowns for weeks before the alleged lockdown happened.

  9. BlokeInTejasInNormandy

    PJF

    The death rate is one thing (and important enough, indeed). But there’s no great reason to suppose that the death rate in the UK is vastly different from other countries/regions with similar populations.

    The trick is to watch the number of new cases every day. It seems to be slowing. When it hits roughly zero, that’s it. Controlled for the moment. THank you our savior Neill Ferguson (etc etc – hosannas…) (Ha!)

    Deaths follow, but after 1-3 weeks.

  10. Interested – Chinese Virus 19 appears to be a frustratingly mediocre existential threat.

    Not nearly bad enough to cause the post-apocalyptic punk-rock-inspired cannibal wasteland we were all hoping for, but just bad enough to allow TPTB to indulge their money-spaffing, rules-is-rules authoritarian fetishism.

    Bit frustrating, really. I was hoping to at least see the pope sitting resplendent on a throne, surrounded by dramatic flames and sinisterly corvine Medico della Peste, but instead we just can’t get toilet paper.

    3/10 – Graphics are shit and the gameplay non-existent

  11. I’m just finishing my 14 days quarantine having arrived back in China a couple of weeks ago. They are taking it really seriously. Even though I’ve been completely alone in my apartment for 2 weeks, so therefore very unlikely to be infected, these two doctors from the Dongguan CDC turned up at my door this morning in full hazmat gear to take a throat swab, the girl from the management office was there hiding up a flight of stairs, looking scared.

    It’s obvious that this is something more than a seasonal flu. Maybe there is an overreaction but the other side of the argument that there’s nothing to worry about is obviously wrong too in my opinion.

  12. BlokeInTejasInNormandy

    Dongguan John

    Any hints as to the worry is about *health system capacity* or about *deaths even when there’s a large amount of treatment bandwidth available*?

    My guess is that the stuff really does kill people in annoying quantities when there’s plenty capacity. But it really cuts ’em down when there isn’t a ventilator and room and staff available.

    If there’s some nasty extra bit of info we’ve not yet heard, it’d be good to know. But I really hope there isn’t. It’s bad enough as is.

  13. BlokeInTejasInNormandy

    I’ve no idea, it just seems obvious to be that given the reaction to this across the world it’s clearly more than nothing to worry about.

    My wife is staying at her family home in the Philippines where there aren’t so many confirmed cases and given the proximity to China you’d have thought would have got it before Europe. They’re just outside Manila in Bulacan province. Her ‘Barangay’ (that’s the name for the smallest administrative division in the Philippines), is totally locked down. Only food suppliers allowed in and out. They’re terrified of it taking hold there because of the shite health service I suppose. Hopefully in the hot and humid weather the virus won’t spread so easily and these poor countries will be spared. If not they are fucked.

  14. @Steve

    ‘Interested – Chinese Virus 19 appears to be a frustratingly mediocre existential threat.’

    It’s not the Black Death, but it does seem to have killed 61 doctors in pretty short order (unless you don’t believe that stat).
    Probably not going to kill any of us, though it also might, but that isn’t the point.
    This seems to be hitting a sweet spot between ebola (kills everyone too quick to be a real issue) and the common cold (everyone gets it, very few die of it).
    This appears to be ‘almost everyone will get it, and a percentage will die, probably somewhere between 0.5% and 1.5%, despite the best efforts of modern medicine’.

    @Dongguan John

    ‘It’s obvious that this is something more than a seasonal flu. Maybe there is an overreaction but the other side of the argument that there’s nothing to worry about is obviously wrong too in my opinion.’

    I think this sums up my feelings. People saying ‘oh my God we’re all going to die’ and hoarding bog roll are stupid weirdos. But people saying ‘it’s all bollocks’ are wrong, I think. People in key areas of the military and intelligence communities are taking it very seriously, doctors are taking it seriously, immunologists and virologists and epidemiologists are taking it very seriously. They canb’t *all* have been got at, or be lizard people, can they?

  15. PJF
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    ONS Registered Deaths:
    Week 11 5
    Week 12 103

    Note that up-to-date counts of the total numbers of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) are published by Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the .GOV.UK website. ONS figures differ from the DHSC counts as the latter include deaths which have not yet been registered.

    Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the numbers of deaths involving COVID-19. That is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. Previously, the number of deaths with an underlying cause of respiratory disease was published a week behind the current week. These will now be published for the current week and revised the following week. Alongside this, a new bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic. A link to the bulletin can be found in the notice box on the weekly deaths dataset page.

  16. …but do those who are more blasé believe that 61 Italian doctors have died from (or with, if you prefer) this in the last five weeks, or not?

    It was reported a couple of days ago that high levels of exposure can lead to worse outcomes. Medical staff are clearly at risk. But are doctors in Germany similarly impacted?

    I also find it strange – again, not snarky – that some of you guys appear to be thinking that Johnson and others are almost inventing this crisis…

    I’m definitely running with cockup over conspiracy there, at least at the start. But I do think there will be pressure to big it up now if the apparent plateau is real this early in proceedings.

    SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 is definitely not like a typical influenza pandemic. It seems almost harmless to prepubescent children, relatively harmless to the young and healthy, and particularly deadly to the vulnerable and old. But to the population overall, it simply doesn’t appear to be an especially dangerous disease. 2020 total deaths are still well down on the five year average, and way, way down on 2018. We could probably have 10,000 or 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 and still be below that year. We didn’t close down the economy and put the populace under house arrest in 2018.

    To turn it around (it might help), what is it about COVID-19 that has you concerned? Serious question, no snark.

  17. That is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate…

    Good grief.

  18. BiTiN

    I’m not sure that watching cases is entirely useful (recorded cases is only a tiny fraction of actual cases and we don’t truly know what that fraction is), unless the testing regime increases substantially. But of course, each change to volumes / method of testing renders time comparisons of cases less meaningful.

    Deaths is a more concrete way of observing this. The manipulators can also play tricks with those stats too, but to a lesser extent, and where they do manipulate it is easier for people to point those adjustments out (as they are doing).

    Interested

    In its impacts and nature, it’s clearly different to flu. I don’t think even the biggest cynics on here are questioning that.

    But aren’t these Chinese (and other) imports – and how they are managed – usually about the balance between infection versus mortality rates? If this was something a lot worse, I don’t think 60 Italian doctors would have died, they would perhaps have all been far better protected. Hence, aren’t those deaths ultimately a failure of the state – the health service is organised and run by the state after all. The NHS may be unlikely to fare well either on that score?

    Isn’t the real issue with this political? Johnson doesn’t want appalling PR coming out of the NHS (and it’s probably similar in other countries). Much better to invoke a “we’re at war” spirit. Make it really, really serious, and you’ve just covered your arse big time wrt how much you just nuked the economy?

  19. Interested

    “They canb’t *all* have been got at, or be lizard people, can they?”

    In Ecksy’s fevered imagination, anything is possible and it’s always a conspiracy.

  20. @Interested – I don’t think that Boris’s treatment of the outbreak is part of an evil plot; I just think it is an over-reaction which will cost us more in the long run. I suspect he’d prefer to follow Sweden’s approach, but he was not strong enough to battle the screeching multitude declaring “more must be done!!!”

    I also believe that state organisations tend to move towards accumulating more power for themselves and that crises such as this accelerate the process – which is no good to anyone who values freedom. As an example, see how the police have behaved.

    Re: dying doctors – if you are stressed and working 24/7 then it will take a toll on your immune system. Also, a much higher percentage of Italian men, especially those over 30, smoke. I have also read that air quality is poor in Northern Italy, which would also be a factor. Those are minor factors though, it is stress and exhaustion making them vulnerable.

    The problem is that we don’t have good data. Nothing from China can be trusted. Elsewhere there is no consistency in testing and even how deaths are recorded/attributed.

  21. epidemiologists are taking it very seriously. They canb’t *all* have been got at, or be lizard people, can they?

    I think a large part of the reason that so many are wondering if it’s not all bollocks, is that these epidemiologists have a history of crying wolf (not to mention the climate “scientists” relying on argumentum ad verecundiam and being proved wrong time after time).

    I still personally think the chances are they are wrong yet again, but am willing to accept that the closing down of western civilisation has been necessary if the evidence can be shown.

  22. Not speaking for anyone else but my main issue with the figures is that we don’t know how many people have had it, given the limited amount of testing. Therefore we are underestimating the denominator when we look at any mortality rate. Anecdotally I know plenty of people who have had coronavirus symptoms but not been tested but I do not know anyone who has been tested.

    But then, in contrast, the number of diagnosed amongst those tested is super low. Which is odd as one would imagine that only the riskiest/ most likely people to have it would be tested (e.g. those working in risky fields, those showing up at hospital with severe symptoms).

  23. Interested

    On dying doctors, I think it’s down to the viral load at the time of infection. With a high initial viral load, the immune system is more likely to be overpowered. With a low initial viral load, the immune system has a good chance of defeating the infection.

  24. Interested

    “61 Italian doctors have died ….”

    Yes, they have died. Were they practicing doctors? Mostly not. Two were in their nineties. Italians don’t have the ‘deregistration on retirement’ thing we have had in the UK since Harold Shipman. They were almost all retired and many were psychiatrists, so unlikely to have been manning the ventilators.

  25. @PJF

    ‘To turn it around (it might help), what is it about COVID-19 that has you concerned? Serious question, no snark.’

    I am not personally concerned – I’m fit and healthy, no underlying conditions, resting heart rate of 52, all the bog roll and red wine I need, nice remote country all around me so I can get out without plod bothering me (and full of pheasant and deer and wild boar if it comes to it). Family all well, my parents are self-isolating very happily, most of my mates are well. Kids are doing my swede in a bit.

    What has me concerned more generally is the economic damage with or without the ‘lockdown’. With it, we are going to struggle. Without it, I think it would be worse – people simply wouldn’t tolerate the potential death and hospitalisation rate, and irresepctive of cynicism I haven’t heard anyone say that this isn’t very fucking contagious and very nasty for a percentage of people. So you either do a lockdown systematically, or it happens anyway, just very chaotically, is my view.

    I’m hearing concerning stuff as to the likely number of deaths from people I know who ought to know – and these are not people who panick or exaggerate. Chap I know is a consultant anaesthetist, ex Royal Marine but we can forgine him that, he certainly has some intestinal fortitude. He’s very concerned – wasn’t concerned about swine flu, nor SARS. I mentioned my cousin – he’s very inexperienced, so might be wrong, but he says the signs are bad. The 61 dead docs definitely has my ears twitching – it looks like you can probably extrapolate that out to 61 dead and the same again who are going to die in the next fortnight, and more after that, and I think, ‘viral load’ etc being accepted, that these are concerning figures. Doctors are likely to get pretty good care, after all.

  26. Obviously, it is currently picking low hanging fruit, and eventually there are no eighty-year-old asthmatics to kill off. But it’s the numbers which are the thing.

  27. Interested, in my experience doctors are the worst patients and the last to seek medical treatment.

  28. During this outbreak, “Dick” Murphy has turned down shoots with Big Di. But he’s OK with the donkey. Does that count as safe sex?

  29. Dennis, Whose Own Mental Health Is Never In Doubt

    Does that count as safe sex?

    Only if it shuts him up for awhile.

  30. irresepctive of cynicism I haven’t heard anyone say that this isn’t very fucking contagious and very nasty for a percentage of people.

    But that’s the thing isn’t it – that “percentage of people”? If the percentage in question are those who will die shortly anyway, and the general population isn’t much affected, then the economic difference between lockdown and not is absolutely gigantic.

    As Hector Drummond has been pointing out, this thing can’t be both highly contagious and very (widely) deadly – otherwise the figures would be already be dramatic. If it’s very contagious then many, probably most, already have it. It’s been floating around for months with massive population mixing (flights still arriving at Heathrow today from China, Italy and Spain).

    For the vulnerable population, the deadliness isn’t so much the disease itself, it’s number of serious cases vs the amount of available health care. If we had loads of ICU capacity then deaths could be quite low. We don’t, so we need to pace the spread. So I agree with a short term lockdown (though this could probably be limited to the major cities for the same effect).

    But months? We’re fucked. End of April at the absolute latest. It’s a corona virus so it will peter out in the warmer months anyway, pacing infections for us.

    Get everything moving again and prepare like fuck for COVID-19’s return after autumn.

  31. @Recusant

    ‘Interested

    “The 61 dead docs definitely has my ears twitching”

    See above’

    Okay, two are in their nineties (I’d like to see a source, I’m not doubting you I just haven’t read that). That leaves 59 who are not. Some are psychiatrists – again, I’d like to see a source. But let’s say (because I can’t find the info easily) that half – 30 – are ‘frontline’ doctors. How many frontline doctors die of ‘normal flu’? I don’t know. Maybe it’s 30. Maybe it’s 10, or 1. It would be good to know.

    I would like to know what you (not just you, people generally) think would have happened without the ‘lockdown’? Presumably we all accept that if everyone saw no-one for three weeks it would die out until the next planeload of wops arrived? Clearly it would also fuck the economy and lots of people would die of other things, so no-one is remotely suggesting that.

    But between that and carrying on as normal is a point where changing behaviour is sensible. It looked for a while as though people generally mixing less was going to do it, but the stats suggested it wasn’t.

    So they had to do something or let it rip.

    There’s an argument for letting it rip, I have made it myself elsewhere, if not here, but I would like your thoughts on what would have happened if they had let it rip, or even had continued with people making small voluntary changes to their lives.

    It seems to me that it really would have led to many tens of thousands of deaths, maybe hundreds of thousands, and I say this on the basis of what has happened already. It is highly contagious, it kills on the best estimates somewhere between 0.5% and 1.5% of those it infects, perhaps more if the hospital care isn’t there, which it would not be.

    How many would die, how many is acceptable – acceptable not just to you, but to the public? At what point would the economy essentially shut down anyway because half of us are ill and a significant number of people are dying fairly unpleasant deaths at home, or in sports halls commandeered as hospices?

    I dunno. I just can’t see the motivation for ‘them’ doing this deliberately, unless the infectivity and fatality rates are utter balls. Are you (generally) saying that it’s not highly infectious and it doesn’t kill in those sorts of percentages?

    They will have to watch it carefully, and release the restrictions as much as they can as quickly as they can, but I can’t see that they had much of a choice, unless and until antibody tests and better medicines are found.

    (I said earlier that all my mates are well – I’ve just heard from an old mate who’s nineteen year old daughter is in hospital at the moment and is quite possibly going to peg it. She has Crohns and a bad immune system, immuno-suppressed basically, but without something like this she could be expected to live a reasonably normal life.)

  32. @PJF

    ‘But that’s the thing isn’t it – that “percentage of people”? If the percentage in question are those who will die shortly anyway, and the general population isn’t much affected, then the economic difference between lockdown and not is absolutely gigantic.’

    The figures I’ve heard are around 15% if you’re 80+ – which is actually pretty reassuring if you’re 80+, you’ve got to die of something and this still probably won’t be it – and around 0.1/0.2% if you’re 20-30 and you get decent hospital care.

    For individuals, that’s reassuring, too – but there are 10 million ish people 20-30 in the UK, so 0.1% is still 10,000 deaths, if everyone gets it.

    Of course, not everyone will get it – herd immunity kicks in (I read) at approx 66%. But let’s say 50% of 20-30 year olds get it; that = 5,000 deaths.

    These are – on the best current information available – what you would expect with decent hospital care, but in many cases you are not going to get decent hospital care.

    Say (fag packet, I know, but it appears to be in the right ball park), that that raises the deaths from 5,000 to 6,500 – in a cohort that generally sees around 1500 deaths annually in the UK (and some number of those deaths would still occur, and maybe others would which otherwise wouldn’t because the hospitals are a bit fucked).

    30-40 is a bit worse still, 40-50 worse again, 50-60 worse again and so on.

    To be brutally honest, we can do without everyone over 80, and most people over 70. Individually very sad, but for the population as a whole – meh. (Not that any government can ever say this, nor any health service ever just accept it.)

    But do we want 6,500+ 20-30 year olds dying? Maybe 12,000 40-50 year olds?

    Of course, new drugs will come on stream, more ventilators and nurses etc, but I am struggling to see why a lot of people, including a lot of young people, don’t die, and thus I think a short term shutdown was pretty much essential.

    ‘As Hector Drummond has been pointing out, this thing can’t be both highly contagious and very (widely) deadly – otherwise the figures would be already be dramatic.’

    I disagree (I think) – it is very contagious and it kills a lot of people over a population, even if most are fine. Ebola is in many ways less worrying – you get it, you fall over, you’re not wandering around giving it to countless unknown people on the tube for a week before you start to feel crook.

    I don’t believe the Chinese figures: I don’t think they would have been welding people into apartments if they were not shitting themselves. The point of being an authoritarian regime is that fuck it, if a few thou die, who cares? But if a few tens of thou die, and it’s going fucking bananas, it’s getting to you, and the army, and the cops, and then you’re really in the shit.

    I agree though re the short term nature of what’s needed. I think they are fucking up at the moment by letting builders travel around on the tube. They’re spreading it, it suggests it’s not serious, and people are going to get very angry at the perceived unfairness of it.

  33. Bloke in North Dorset

    @Interested,

    Sorry to here about your cousin, it is no respecter of age, but age does appear to help get over it. According to Max Roser (see below) “Between 10% to 15% of young people with lab-confirmed cases needed hospital treatment”.

    Ref those doctors (and your cousin), as Theo says, look up viral load. I think those doctors will also have compromised immune systems through working long hours over an extended period. Anyone who’s don’t that knows you become susceptible to just about every bug going, especially when you try to have a bit of down time.

    There’s some interesting testing results coming out of Iceland. They reckon they’ve tested a greater proportion of their population and they’re seeing 50% of those with the virus being asymptomatic. The good news from that is that more people may have been infected and recovered, the bad news is that its neigh on impossible to stop the spread.

    As a source of info the Our World in Data project is very useful and if you have a Twitter account I recommend this guy: https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser

    A chart of age related hospital admissions here: https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1244954663432138753

    I’m starting to think the biggest problem we’re facing is that most of the reporting is being done by political correspondents from the MSM and they seem coditioned to probe for gotcha moments rather than insightful information or holding the goverenment to account.

  34. BlokeInTejasInNormandy

    PF

    In a world in which all the numbers were correctly gathered and honestly presented, you’d have a good case.

    But I reckon that right now, what ‘total cases’ means is “total number of people sick enough to be hospitalised and have tested positive for COVID 19” – at least to a good approximation.

    It would help if the numbers separated out “tested”, “tested positive” and “hospitalised”, but they don’t seem to.

    My rule of thumb *should* become increasingly less accurate, but by then the initial peak should have passed and we can focus on deaths.

  35. Interested

    Mortality rate

    On the basis that (I believe) no one has yet carried out a thorough test of a large population, to see how many were infected (including asymptomatic), and from those how many died or might yet die, we clearly have little certainty as to what the mortality rate is.

    But at the very least one can perhaps start from the very lowest mortality rate currently available (where the testing has been more), and ignore any higher ratios (where testing has been comparatively non existent). The rate being affected also by the time period over which there is an escalation of cases before average likely death (from earlier cases) occurs.

    The Diamond Princess was statistically too small a sample for this purpose given the eventual small number of deaths, but (given the high % of oldies) that might suggest an ordinary population mortality rate of less than 1%.

    Others, now looking at the data (in perhaps more sophisticated ways), are suggesting a mortality rate of considerably less than 1%. Dr John Lee has a couple of articles in the Speccy in that context.

    That might start to take us away from the mid 6 digit death rates (for the UK) towards the lower 6 digit or even 5 digit death rates?

    If one then discounts for the CV death rates being logged as all those dying “with” CV, compared to flu, where flu is only logged if dying “of” flu (if I understood Lee’s explanation correctly?), then it may be (in the context of “a bad flu year” – circa 30K deaths?) that we risk being overzealous wrt the policy being played out (if extending our current approach)?

  36. With half an ear on the news, the current line is “government is failing, WE NEED MOAR GOVERNMENT!!!!”

  37. “The Diamond Princess was statistically too small a sample for this purpose given the eventual small number of deaths, but (given the high % of oldies) that might suggest an ordinary population mortality rate of less than 1%.”
    The question that is surely troubling every government is – How does the death rate with treatment compare to the the death rate without treatment? Because they will be slaughtered if they end up operating at the wrong end of that equation.

  38. Dongguan John
    Although hot and humid seems plausible as to why some countries in SE Asia aren’t badly affected, it can’t be shown in the lab. You can google “coronavirus humidity” yourself and read the papers. What can be shown in the lab is that the virus can stay active a couple of weeks or more in a sealed, air conditioned environment.

    I expect where your wife lives people live mostly out in the open air as they do here in Thailand, buildings aren’t sealed unless they are air conned, and that’s unusual outside the cities. My hypothesis is that it is simply fresh air that is the protecting factor. My apartment doesn’t even have glass in the windows, just a bug screen and a shutter for the monsoon.

    The lockdown in Europe will work, not because people are shut in their homes, but because they are prevented from congregating in enclosed spaces, i.e. offices.

  39. One of the issues seems to be how long people need to be treated for, if typical flu is 1 week on a ventilator and this is 3 weeks on a ventilator your going to need a lot of extra capacity even if it isn’t any worse than normal flu for infection and treatment rates.
    Once you can’t treat people then the mortality rates will spike

  40. As predicted, a big jump in today’s death figures. Perhaps COVID-19 took a couple of days off. In contrast, despite increased testing, the number of infections per day has not risen much – it’s only 88 per day more than five days ago (the intervening days were lower than that day).

    This is not an exponential increase. And this is before the lockdown can have had an affect.

  41. PJF:

    For the vulnerable population, the deadliness isn’t so much the disease itself, it’s number of serious cases vs the amount of available health care. If we had loads of ICU capacity then deaths could be quite low. We don’t, so we need to pace the spread. So I agree with a short term lockdown (though this could probably be limited to the major cities for the same effect).

    But months? We’re fucked. End of April at the absolute latest. It’s a corona virus so it will peter out in the warmer months anyway, pacing infections for us.

    Get everything moving again and prepare like fuck for COVID-19’s return after autumn.

    +10

    Interested:

    “I just can’t see the motivation for ‘them’ doing this deliberately, unless the infectivity and fatality rates are utter balls.”

    Exactly! There’s no such motivation. +100

    PF:
    “Dr John Lee has a couple of articles in the Speccy in that context.”

    Well worth reading!

  42. My take
    All the survival rates per age group come from places with adequate health care. And yes they show it as harmless in the young, deadly to the old and diseased, and survivable for those in between. But that survivability depends to some degree on the availability of health care. I believe China and Iran where excess deaths clearly happened are places where healthcare isn’t all its cracked up to be. The drive is therefore to protect and augment healthcare so that it continues to be survivable for those without critical conditions. Just for now We do need to preserve the NHS, as it’s the healthcare system we have.
    We could really use data as to how many in the population have it and have had it.
    Data showing whether it is growing or shrinking would be useful.
    I have no problem with counting the number that die with it rather than of it since it removes a highly subjective judgement from the compilation of the stats, so we will get a better handle than before on the growth or lack thereof of the disease.
    Of course as the medical profession learns how best to treat this the deaths will decline, so that will skew the figures.

  43. Bloke in North Dorset

    For the vulnerable population, the deadliness isn’t so much the disease itself, it’s number of serious cases vs the amount of available health care. If we had loads of ICU capacity then deaths could be quite low. We don’t, so we need to pace the spread. So I agree with a short term lockdown (though this could probably be limited to the major cities for the same effect).

    I can’t find the figures right now but Andrew Neil was arguing that the reason Germany has much lower mortality rates is far more ICU beds and a better health care system in general.

  44. Even a BluLabour numpty like Theo realises how damaging this lockdown hysteria is.

    BTW Theo despite your love of what you think people said rather than what they actually said–via your overweening ego getting in the way of what you are looking at– I have never said that Blojo was in any conspiracy.

    It is obv that if this WAS a power grab it would have to be at a globo elite–fuck-up-the-world-as-a-precursor-to Agenda-21 level. No national govt benefits from a power-grab that fucks their economies and leaves their population to discover–once the mass deaths don’t happen- that they have been ruined over hysterical hot air. I suspect the possibility that Bloj may have been the victim of a SCS conspiracy to stich him up using Bullshit Ferguson and the Imperial College numbnuts squad to give him advice that might yet cost him his job. Remember this is the same SCS so recently in open conflict with his govt. To have tricked him into a very dangerous move must be delicious for the scum.

    See Hector Drummonds blog of yesterday for more info about the Imperial model–which seems to be what the Yanks are using as well.

    Interested–I don’t believe anything coming out of Italy. 61doctors? After 10 had died I’d have equipped them with an independent air supply–a fucking scuba tank if they have to improvise–and had them scrubbed up outside hazmat ABC style. How competent are medicos who–knowing the supposed dangers– still can’t protect 60 of their own?

    Itie govt is in trouble. They are already bigging up the figures by their cock-handed way of recording. It is in their interest to try and make as big a situation as they can.

    Their deal with China is at the root of their problems as is doing soddall to stop 100 thou illegal Chinese imports (instead of jobs for Italians).They are going to fall once this is done and since they are EU owed the Brussels gang will also be in even more trouble.

  45. Ecks – in what fucking world is it in the interests of the Italian government to shut their economy down for weeks or maybe months on end *if they do not believe it is absolutely necessary*?

    Seriously? What do they gain? Why would they do this?

    I am fully on board with governments being run by twats, even evil bastards at times. I’ve been on this blog saying stuff like that for well over a decade. I am not a big government type. I am a liberal. But what the fucking fuck do they gain from shutting everything down? 800 people are dying every day. Many of them would die anyway, people have to die, I get that, but this is qualitatively different, surely, and equally surely you must have an explanation beyond ‘They’re all cunts’?

  46. A take: vaccine in the next 9 months is not guaranteed, and this thing is highly infectious and also good at hiding itself for a few days in the sorts that do the infecting ( who do things like not washing their hands, touching banisters and non-metal door handles, visiting or working in clinics or care homes ).
    So have I got this right? The best outcome is to lift the controls next week with an instruction to the vulnerable to stay holed up, let the thing rip through the population at say 4 million a week on average with the ICU burden on the NHS coming in at just below their capacity for the duration.
    And on Empire over day, or 4/7 for those without Yank relatives, we unilaterally declare that GB is open, has herd immunity and the vulnerable can emerge into the sun.
    Must be a flaw in this strategy, but I can’t see it.

  47. The flaw is if it infects 4 million a week and kills 0.5% of them you are killing 20,000 people a week, and if it’s killing 5%… Maybe it won’t. But would you sign the paperwork? I don’t know if I would and I am quite happy to kill people if necessary.

  48. Public Health England – what a total and utter joke of an organisation (yes, I know, we all knew that already).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/31/public-health-england-ignored-offers-testing-help-amid-mounting/

    Interested,

    0.5% or whatever it is: extensive testing – the kits for which PHE were happily turning down (when being offered) in the link above – would start to tell us very quickly what the score was in that department.

    And the drivel of an excuse given by PHE – no need for testing, because the government was initially following the herd immunity approach – is complete bollocks. Whatever approach you are taking, you want to be able to monitor the effect / outcome of that approach as efficiently as possible.

  49. The kill rate amongst the “not-vulnerable” is as high as 0.5%? I’d like to see the evidence for that claim. If you are right Interested then Premier League football might as well re-start at the end of February 2021.
    The NHS can handle say 10,000 a week of patients requiring ICU, who each need it for say 14 days on average, then 20k a week deaths ( say 40k a week of incoming needing ICU if you had the capacity ) – then this is going to break the religion that is the NHS and our belief in ourselves. Massive problem.
    But the 0.5% death rate you suggest amongst the “not vulnerable” – not buying that, unless you know better.
    Of we can get it down to 0.1% of those without any pre-existing conditions, and under 70, then we can lift the controls when Boris emerges from quarantine.

    Oh schit, he might end up being worshipped.

  50. Actually, it’s a whole worse than a joke – as we’ve seen so often before – given their implicit remit!

  51. Why isn’t the Mezzogiorno suffering?

    For that matter, why is every member of the legion of people I dislike still alive?

  52. Bongo – no, I have zero info other than stuff I read and I have no way of knowing how accurate it is. But say it’s 0.1% – that’s still 4,000 a week, or more than twice the annual road traffic deaths. I dunno. I’m not saying this will happen, I just keep coming up against the question, why won’t it?

  53. Interested–The Ities aren’t doing it for fun–they have no fucking choice now. They can’t minimize the special mess circs and their own cupidity/bungling have them in. The only tactic is to make it seem that it is some huge Act of God and they are largely innocent.

    It is a transparent ploy but what else have they got?

    If it is the virus than why aren’t medics croaking at the same rate elsewhere?

    iTALY:

    1–100,000 illegal Chinese tat-factory workers courtesy of CCP wandering around for months before Coro recognised. Regular supplies of infected via plane and “New Silk Road”. Lots returning from Chinese New Year February home visits.
    2- More extended families with old folk in the house.
    3–Kissy-kissy culture.
    4- It now seems obvious there was a complete lack of preparedness and an Italian style even-more-shambolic system than elsewhere.
    5-Crap counting–anybody and everybody listed as coro death if it is anywhere in the area.Little testing and tests being largely useless anyway
    6-Worldwide deaths are not even an average years flu rounding figure–by a mile. Nor has a lockdown had much effect on a 3-4 week incubation period illness. In Italy there will be lots of ord flu/pnuemo/cold deaths included in with coro figs. Real coro deaths will likely be the same as worldwide–older people mostly with lots of trouble already.
    7–Already a TB epidemic in N Italy.
    8–Already many more Italians have likely had the disease and never noticed it or shrugged it off. Actual figs of infected MUCH higher than known –thus bringing death rate back into normal range by self. Prob true worldwide.

    The mega-death capers aren’t going to happen. This fucking germ has been around since Nov last. Super infectious and super deadly? So where are the mass deaths and exponential growth so far? Nowhere–but if we collapse the economy we’ll have them from a shitload of sources. Not having the money to do much about coro or any other germ will be part of it.

    THE LOCKDOWN IS KILLING US.

    ACTION FOR VULNERABLE–THE REST GO BACK TO WORK WHILE THEY STILL HAVE SOME.

  54. @PJF March 31, 2020 at 9:41 am
    https://www.timworstall.com/2020/03/31/seems-entirely-possible/#comment-982511

    That is signifcant and no doubt will be ignored by BBC, C4 etc, it follows on from Gov making it a “notifiable disease”

    BoJo’s Gov revealing true totalitarian beliefs by exaggerating, not minimising by making “with” equals “due to CV-19” and sole cause of death

    More:
    Boris decides now is the time to support the public and tell plod to back-off? No, he supports Stasi
    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1244961728246538240

  55. Blojo will soon be in big trouble. He has been lucky but that luck now seems to have run out.

    The SCS have stitched him up like a kipper IMO.

  56. So does the decrease in demand mean hookers have to lower their prices or would they charge a premium for unsafe conditions.
    Assume where it’s illegal as legal countries will have been able to officially close it down

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