Italy’s government has ordered all shops, bars and restaurants across the country to close after the country’s death toll from the coronavirus outbreak rose by 31% in the space of 24 hours to a total of 827.

12 thoughts on “Whut?”

  1. V interesting Ecksy. The average state of urban Chinese lungs can’t be good in any case.
    Immigration benefits us all again, or rather large-scale immigration from filthy backwards shitholes.

  2. Bloke in North Dorset

    One of the many reasons I think Italy and China will prove to be outliers in the death rate is the high rate of smoking, especially amongst men, and in China the effects of pollution. I visited Hubei province about 15 years ago and the pollution was truly awful and some of the worst |I’ve ever encountered, worse than Manilla. Fortunately is was only for a couple days.

    Other reasons for Italy being an outlier:

    1. They don’t do social distancing, large family gatherings for meals etc. Lots of hugging and hand shaking. Whereas the rest of Europe and the USA is a lot more reserved.

    2. As they’re the first liberal democracy to get it bad we can learn from their mistakes.

    3. A very old population with the problem being exacerbated by having so many grown-up children, especially men, living at home.

    We might see some other effects in other countries with higher obesity and type 2 diabetes, to the extent that they’re linked, which may have increase the death rates. That’s still not clear but when it takes hold in the USA we’ll find out.

  3. @BiND

    Exactly. We’re seeing a lot of the number of fatalities, but not of who died. Were they ill, old, smokers, drinkers, tall, short, thin, fat etc.

    Who is high risk should surely be known by now, and special protections taken for those people. Those in low risk groups should be allowed to get on with life knowing that they’re likely of have a bout of flue.

  4. I’ve e-mailed several people telling them, to prevent the spread of corona virus, I’m deleting e-mails from the UK unopened & unread. So far, no responses.

  5. The Other Bloke in Italy

    They are beginning to practise extreme triage up North, and if you have Corona-Chan plus a heart or lung problem, they are simply making you comfortable.

  6. @Bind

    Actually the whole they have an older population malarky is an excuse being made by the incompetent Italians for why their death rate is higher.

    the percentage of the population that is over 65 is not that different from France or germany – it is true that they have more over the age of 80 but not by enough to explain the higher death rate:

    Population over 80
    Italy 7.2%
    Germany 6.5%
    France 6.1%
    Spain 6.1%
    (taken from Eurostat)

    The death rate for those over 80 is 14.8% (according to the Chinese CDC), 8% for those in their 70s and 3.6% in the 60s.

    The tiny differential in the Italian population of the very vulnerable does not explain why the idiots claimed death rate vs. infections is 6.6% (829 vs 12,462) – France has a 2.1% death rate.

    The real problem is that the Italians have not found a significant percentage of those who have been infected. If you look at the regional statistics, this is made even clearer by the unbelievable death vs infected rate in Lombardy: 617 deaths vs 7,280 cases which gives us a mortality rate of 8.5%:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics

  7. @BiS… In a similar vein, an acquaintance from my local pub has “given up eating chinese takeaways”.. Only he’s not jopking! 🙂

  8. I live in Milan. My kids are now home from school since 4 weeks and will be for at least 3 more. From today not allowed to go play in the park.

    The situation is serious but I don’t know if all measures where needed. We will see in 7-10 days when the impact of the previous set of measures flow through into contagion numbers (5-14 days incubation time + 2-4 days to get test results) but it is serious.

    Thr death rate is very high. Possible reasons:
    – old population
    – underestimated total number of cases (even if Italy has done way more tests than others)
    – definition: everyone that dies with the virus is counted even if they also had multiple other pathologies (most did). This is officially recognised and I would expect a downwards revision at some point

    More scary is the capacity of intensive care units. 15% or so needs them and will probably die without. They are now planning to convert an existing building in Milan into a 500 patient hospital in 6 days (not Chinese level but unprecedented).

    Unfortunately I seriously fear that Germany, France and Spain will be in a similar situation in 7-8 days and the UK in 10-12 (just a matter of looking at the contagion take-up)

  9. We don’t know whether the Chinese method has worked because:

    (i) We have no idea whether the Chinese government’s figures are true.

    (ii) We can’t judge success and failure until everyone has returned to work.

  10. “a total of 827” – over how many days?

    Assuming Italy similar to UK, 1,680 die every day. CV-19 deaths mostly premature ‘with’ not ‘due to’

    btw F1 Australia cancelled after McLaren pulled out

    Chaos and indecision reign at the Australian Grand Prix with organisers and F1 officials at odds over race cancellation
    A meeting between team principals and F1’s Ross Brawn resolved that the race would be abandoned, but Melbourne hosts were holding firm
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/formula-1/2020/03/12/f1-australian-grand-prix-cancelled-mclaren-team-member-tests/

    If teams, drivers and FOM say it’s cancelled Melbourne hosts are deluded to think they can compel it. They’d be better recouping their loses by making a Docu while all still there, then sell it

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