An interesting prediction

In the long term, I cannot see coronavirus and the reaction to it creating inflation.

Production is down. Budget deficit – which is stimulatory – is up. To the extent that QE is paying for the deficit the narrow money supply is up.

This will not cause inflation.

discuss.

11 thoughts on “An interesting prediction”

  1. That is quite a brave view to take. Official figures – up to end March are showing mixed signals

    The all items CPI annual rate is 1.5%, down from 1.7% in February…….The all items CPI is 108.6, unchanged from last month.

    The CPI all goods index annual rate is 0.6%, down from 1.0% last month…..The CPI all goods index is 105.7, down from 105.8 in February.

    The CPI all services index annual rate is 2.5%, unchanged from last month.

    The all items RPI annual rate is 2.6%, up from 2.5% last month.

    Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 1.4% in the 12 months to March 2020, unchanged since February 2020…..Private rental prices grew by 1.4% in England, 1.2% in Wales and by 0.6% in Scotland in the 12 months to March 2020…..London private rental prices rose by 1.2% in the 12 months to March 2020.

    And then we learnt last week that some areas are seeing a fair bit of inflation as the new HDP ( Higher Demand Products) inflation measure recorded 4.4% in just 4 weeks. Of course, it could be said that these indices are a little difficult to calculate at the moment – eg house sales are not happening and rents might start to go unpaid but it is quite brave to assert that there will be no inflation. The pressures will be there if the lockdown ever alleviates

  2. ‘stimulatory’

    People aren’t out of work because there isn’t enough money out there. There is no business to stimulate. More people won’t be using restaurants, for example.

    It is charity. Increased business activity will come from eliminating the CV-19 menace.

  3. What does he even mean by ‘long term’?
    You can bet, if challenged, he’ll define the time frame to suit himself. Plus if we do the post coronavirus thing properly and really get the economy going, won’t it create inflation to some degree?

  4. Demand is also down earnings are down confidence is on the floor. I`d have thought deflation was just as much of a worry but no-one knows ( anything )

  5. Incidentally, we’ve been told repeatedly by Spud and others that the State should be borrowing like mad because its so cheap, and spending it all like a drunken sailor, because it will all pay for itself. So now we’re going to test this theory aren’t we? The government is going to borrow huge amounts of money (or indeed print it possibly) and just give it to people to spend, and given they’ve nothing else to spend, they will. So presumably all the spending will all pay for itself, in massively increased tax revenues.

    And if it doesn’t we can file ‘governments borrowing to spend pays for itself’ under ‘Complete Bollocks on Stilts’, can’t we?

  6. Incidentally, we’ve been told repeatedly by Spud and others that the State should be borrowing like mad because its so cheap, and spending it all like a drunken sailor, because it will all pay for itself. So now we’re going to test this theory aren’t we?

    The Conservative Party were already committed to this high risk ( for us ) idea on the basis that nothing ever goes wrong ..nothing unexpected …no disaster you did not see coming …was possible.
    The initial figures for the cost of everyone paying everyone else to sit around doing nothing are proving ( of course ) to be fantasy
    Within months people will have to start work again because the country will not be able to continue borrowing and as we are currently hiding in a log cabin while the bear is still a huge terrifying reality waiting outside …plenty will die.
    Those people who supported the end of Conservatism and populist Nationalism with its attendant spending addiction will be directly responsible for some of those deaths

    How do you feel about that?
    Shame I hope

  7. Facepainter–the only shame is that of a traitor’s shame that will see you kissing Satan’s arse through all eternity. As befits all traitors.

    Practice your screaming–maybe the Dark One might ease up on you.

  8. “Those people who supported the end of Conservatism and populist Nationalism with its attendant spending addiction will be directly responsible for some of those deaths”

    So if we’d all voted for Grandpa Death there would be no covid-19?

    I think whoever we voted for last December, we were getting the virus regardless so you’re full of shit, as usual.

  9. How do you feel about that?

    Hmm… on the whole I’m feeling that you’re an illiterate flange. And a loser. You lost the referendum, you lost the election and now you’ve lost your totemic Belgian trade association. You can wet your pants for the rest of your life about racist grannies and populism but that won’t change the facts.

  10. Global Pandemic? Deaths (176,786) and infected (2,520,522 cases) are orders of magnitude below a Global Pandemic

    Para 2 +1 UK Shutdown cost is running at £2.4bn/per day or ~£30 Million per With CV-19 premature death and GDP cost/death increasing daily

    Maybe it’s time to put Col Tim Collins in charge, he’s not scared of some deaths causing negative press coverage unlike our spineless politicians who refuse to lead and hide behind Medics whose prime objective is saving lives

    Replacing Med advisors with Undertakers another thought

  11. Gov Today (again): Isolation needed for rest of 2020. Must wait for a vaccine or people might die

    Was world shut/isolating before MMR, Whooping Cough, Chickenpox, Flu…. vaccines?

    As I was at Prep school in 1960/70s and caught all but mumps; holidayed in IoM, London, Tunisia, Austria, Switzerland: World Not Shut

    Is world shut/isolating from:
    TB: 1.5 million people died from TB in 2018
    HIV: In 2018, 770,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced since the peak of 1.7 million in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010

    Wuhan SARS-CV19: Global Pandemic? Deaths (176,786) and infected (2,520,522 cases) are orders of magnitude below a Global Pandemic

    Message for Govs: Everybody Dies. End this unnecessary hugely damaging shutdown Now

    Cyprus
    “…Stressing that policy decisions must be driven by sober assessment of the data, he went on to cite World Health Organisation estimates that up to 650,000 people die from the common flu globally each year.

    This compared to the approximately 150,000 deaths to date (April 20) attributed to Covid-19.

    “They told us that coronavirus is far more serious than seasonal flu. Until today in Cyprus, 12 people have died due to coronavirus. During the same time period last year, 18 people had died from Influenza…”
    https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-matsakis-calls-on-president-to-lift-restrictions/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *