Another prediction

Mark it down and remember it:

If the UK current trajectory continues – and as we run out of medical facilities that is a reasonable assumption for the next week or more – then deaths of more than 10,000 a day are likely in little more than a week if the rate of growth seen yesterday continues.

Gee, ya think?

The truly horrific scale of this crisis has yet to emerge, and because of the attitude the UK and USA have taken towards it the chance that we will eventually suffer the most seems high. And that will not be by chance. That will be by choice.

If it doesn’t happen there will be no walking back of the claim that we’ve done it wrong, will there?

64 thoughts on “Another prediction”

  1. Any clown who can draw a straight line on a piece of log graph paper* is now an epidemiologist**.

    * Though I suspect even that feat is well beyond the Spud.

    ** I’d like to think they have access to more sophisticated methods, but A hae ma doots.

  2. 10,000 deaths per day in the UK within a week is an ambitious target, given that new cases are increasing at less than 500 per day, currently. We’ll quickly run out of available victims and have to kill those on the sidelines just to meet our heroic Captain’s plans

  3. There are no good statistics.
    They’re only now developing serology to test for previous exposure, take a week, any decent university lab can make an ELISA test.
    I can bullshit on the fear porn. If the medical “experts” were taking this seriously, they’d have rolled out these tests in Jan/early Feb.

  4. Bloke in North Dorset

    According to OurWorldInData (you need to scroll down) there were 743 new deaths yesterday and the there’s is a doubling every 3 days. Assuming that rate (it is likely to increase slightly then decrease if you link it to cases) then we would get to 9500 by April 9, so yes, he’s about right using simple maths and based on current performance.

    However doubling every 3 days seems to be about the peak, Italy is now at 9 days, France 5 days and Spain 6 days.

    Only a self obsessed fool who doesn’t do any research would stake their reputation on the UK rate of doubling remaining at 3 days.

  5. I am hoping that when this is over there will be smoking piles of rubble where there were once taxfunded expert bodies and mainstream media.

  6. So we are going to be seeing almost a greater total
    Daily than Italy has had across the whole duration of the crisis. The only good thing to come out of the crisis is that whatever limited reputation Murphy had it has been destroyed by his constant sniping from the sidelines – he has confirmed that he is arguably the most dangerous and stupid man in the country.

  7. Dennis, Tiresome Denizen of Central Ohio

    One can’t help notice the underlying tone of pure joy in Murphy’s apocalyptic ramblings. I suspect that in the final analysis, he would welcome 10,000 deaths a week and the total collapse of Britain. In his eyes it would probably be chalked up to being a regrettable necessity in the process of birthing of a Brave New World.

  8. “I suspect that in the final analysis, he would welcome 10,000 deaths a week and the total collapse of Britain.”

    He’s actually predicting 10,000 a DAY.

    But yes, classic Marxist doctrine that death and destruction on a massive scale is justified to reach the promised Marxist utopia.

    He really is a evil little cunt.

  9. The mistake the UK has made is not closing the borders to all non-residents and not forcing residents who return into quarantine for two weeks.

    Australia had its first death on 1st March and currently sits at 24. A significant proportion of the deaths have come from one cruise ship, the Ruby Princess, which the arseholes down in NSW allowed to disembark its passengers without any screening or quarantine.

  10. “…then deaths of more than 10,000 a day are likely in little more than a week if the rate of growth seen yesterday continues.”

    Rate of growth today (deaths and new cases) pretty much the same as yesterday.

    Prediction looking shaky.

  11. Also, the daily death rate had been decreasing before the decision to count all deaths with COVID-19 as deaths from COVID-19.

    I wonder if we’ll see a new stable after the jump to the new counting method. Today doesn’t rule that out, but way too early to tell.

    We’re also counting deaths with COVID-19-like-symptoms as COVID-19 deaths (i.e. no test). So we’re using an Italian / Chinese hybrid method.

  12. It’s as if he actually wants UK to be an outlier and have 10,000 deaths per day. He’s been bristling with excitement since the crisis began. What an absolutely vile person. And that goes for the cretins who act as his fluffers each day on his blog.

  13. the cretins who act as his fluffers each day on his blog

    If there are still a number of Nazis and ex-East German communists commenting there, not all the fluffers will be cretins…

  14. BiND:
    …but my point stands.

    Murphy’s prediction was for 10,000 deaths per day.

    You’re saying (just maths projection, not your personal prediction) we’d get to 9500 total deaths total by April 9th, yes?

  15. Pretty sure some bastard will demand a new referendum on the basis that COVID-19 preferentially takes Brexit voters.

  16. DocBud said:
    “The mistake the UK has made is not closing the borders to all non-residents and not forcing residents who return into quarantine for two weeks. ”

    Yes, quite boggling that it was considered bad enough to shut down the whole country, but not bad enough to do this.

  17. I see that the comedian Eddie Large has died at 78. The news on Radio 3 ( really) had a long item on him and made great play that he died of Bat-flu. Oh by the way he was being treated for heart failure in hospital at the time.

  18. PJF “I wonder if we’ll see a new stable after the jump to the new counting method. Today doesn’t rule that out, but way too early to tell.”

    If more deaths are counted because of ‘with’ rather than ‘of’ then deaths from other causes must diminish. (I am not nuts enough to believe a conspiracy of double counting). So the ONS weekly death figures for all deaths, or even all respiratory diseases, rather than any daily figure from PHE are the surest guide, albeit they are not instantaneous enough for sensational media reporting.

  19. Dennis, Mental Health Amateur

    Watch out, Diogenes. You are now in line to be called Marxist Shite Scum.

  20. https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6042137/bekijk-de-coronacijfers-van-2-april-in-zes-grafieken.html ( might want to use google translate..)

    The daily statistics for the Netherlands. Since we’re a week or two further along than the UK it looks like we’re past the big hump.
    Note that us cloggies only count the confirmed CoV-19 cases, which in 99% of cases is when people are hospitalised with severe symptoms.
    The mild cases stay at home, and aren’t tested. Current estimate is that about 20% of cases need hospitalisation, other sources mention 10%. So the actual number of infections is somewhere between 5 to 10 times higher than mentioned in the article.
    All cases where CoVid-19 is involved are counted as corona deaths, regardless of underlying pre-existing conditions. Actual number of confirmed deaths of “otherwise healthy” people is a grand total of 5 (five) currently.

    For reference, normal average death rate for the Netherlands is 421/day.

  21. A relative is a bit pissed of, works in a hospital and has to treat a Somali for CV. Apparently they have some gene thing that makes them easier to catch it, so there’s that at least…clouds and silver linings.

  22. Looking forward to the video of heroic last stand on cold dead hands day Denise–at least up the bit where you start crying.

    Diogenes–just wondered about the humanity that’s all.

  23. Doc Bud–Thanks for that. The article doesn’t mention their falling out but it is good to know they parted as pals rather than enemies. After all these threads about stats it was a reminder that it is peoples lives in the balance rather than just figures.

  24. Bloke in North Dorset

    PJF

    “BiND:
    …but my point stands.

    Murphy’s prediction was for 10,000 deaths per day.

    You’re saying (just maths projection, not your personal prediction) we’d get to 9500 total deaths total by April 9th, yes?”

    PJF,

    Yes I’m saying that’s the maths, using the site I prefer, but no, I don’t think we’ll get near it. We’ve been in lockdown 0 days now and cases started falling so we’d expect the death rate to fall. Another 10 days of doubling every 3 days means we’ve locked down for little reason.

  25. Covid-19: Not so highly infectious after all? – I Agree

    The consistency of these findings from a variety of contexts is remarkable and suggests Covid-19 may turn out to be symptom-free in around half of infections

    We might also note that the UK government appears, oddly, to agree with this mortality rate since, despite the extraordinarily costly, illiberal and harmful lengths it has gone to in its efforts to suppress Covid-19, it has just removed it from the official list of High Consequence Infectious Diseases (HCID), stating that mortality rates are ‘low overall’

    If this emerging picture turns out to be in any way close to the mark (and we will know by comparing the outcomes in different countries that have taken different approaches, such as Sweden) the most important lesson to take away from this debacle will be never again to do something as monumentally disproportionate as lock down the country and crash the economy over something comparable to a bad epidemic of the seasonal flu

    Interesting and informative with good stats

    The WHO has failed us again

    This isn’t the first time the World Health Organisation has let politics get in the way of saving lives

    Like other UN bodies, it is bloated, bureaucratic, suffers from organisational dysfunction and is stuffed with political stooges

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing…

    Lancet Editor Slams Government for Listening to his Advice
    https://order-order.com/2020/03/27/lancet-editor-slams-government-for-listening-to-his-advice/

  26. @BiND

    No – OurWorldInData is useless fear mongering

    OurWorldInData is only reporting CV-19 deaths, Not all deaths. Their figures give no insight into whether All Deaths per day/week is higher, same or lower

    @MC

    NO No no – Bad, misleading post “shows 563 deaths on April 1, up from 381 on March 31”

    UK with CV-19 deaths on 1 April was 182, bringing total to 563

    @Jussi April 2, 2020 at 4:46 pm

    Media & Gov will never admit Blacks more likely to catch and die. I did observe all the NHS staff who died were black in C4 News tribute yesterday

    @Ljh, DocBud

    +1

    Clap for NHS? Silence here as last week – good

  27. @MC

    Sorry, I was wrong. Another 563 people have died in the UK after contracting coronavirus – bringing the total number of deaths to 2,352

    563 out of avg 1,685pd – until ONS all causes deaths this week reported I’m not worried

  28. March 30th – 180
    March 31st — 381
    April 1st —— 563
    April 2nd —– 569

    Total as of April 2nd – 2921

  29. As US loses jobs to COVID-19 crisis, government issues new work visas
    https://youtu.be/vq5M31NhnV8?t=60

    Biden’s struggles drive Dems deeper into panic
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRmSTb0NIJQ

    NY hospital execs punished for wishing coronavirus on Trump supporters
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrdnTD4-fcc

    What is the new normal?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4mUcr4F_DA

    NYT Finally admits Chloroquine for CV-19 is beneficial to speed recovery and reduce deaths. @BiG is angry and reiterates “arthritis more important”

    Models? Debunked as GIGO

  30. 2921 in 4 days.

    Of course they control the figures–we don’t know who died of what.

    Even if each deceased person was tested–the tests themselves are not that reliable and don’t in any case–AFAIK–show how much coro. A few virus =exposure alone. Millions swarming would be needed to kill.

    We are counting Italian style–with not for. So we don’t know if these figs are part of the 1680 per day approx. “usual” deaths anyway–or as well as. Until this ONS report.

    To me switching to Italian style count looks like a way of boosting the supposed figures and trying to justify Johnson ruining the economy,He must know by now big trouble is on the way.

  31. I understand 6.6 million people applied for Unemployment benefit in the USA –in the last week.

    This lockdown shite has to stop.

  32. “…they control the figures…looks like a way of boosting the supposed figures and trying to justify Johnson ruining the economy.”

    It’s not a conspiracy: it’s a legal consequence of declaring cv a notifiable disease.

  33. Ok–but it is still distorting the figures in a way advantageous to those standing by while wholesale ruin heads our way.

    It may be an epiphenomenon of legalism but it is not helping to get a clear picture,

    Why not issue such figures with a disclaimer –“with” does not mean “from”. Just to clarify matters.

  34. BTW I understand that 6.6 million American dole claimants last week was on top of 3.3 million the week before.

  35. 2921 in 4 days.

    No, Mr Ecks. That’s 2921 total recorded COVID-19 [Wuhan] deaths since the start (to April 2nd).

    1693, more than half the total, occurred in those last four days.

  36. 2 more weeks of LD + another 2 for T(useless)PTB to make their mind up? The economy should be ready to have a fork stuck in it by then.

    And the worst bit is that the new Project Fear has got most conned in. Peek Freakout and the Ruin Rubicon will both have been well crossed before most realise they have been stitched up by hysteria.

  37. “Ok–but it is still distorting the figures in a way advantageous to those standing by while wholesale ruin heads our way.”

    It’s hardly “advantageous” to anyone to damage the economy.

    “Why not issue such figures with a disclaimer –“with” does not mean “from”.”

    That point has been made quite clearly. Also, the with-from distinction is not clear cut: it’s a matter of judgement.

    “2 more weeks of LD + another 2 for T(useless)PTB to make their mind up?”

    Whatever they do, they aren’t going to ease LD at the peak. It would be irresponsible to do so. So it’s the end of April – at the earliest.

    “The economy should be ready to have a fork stuck in it by then.”

    As Adam Smith observed: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.” And we aren’t going to reach complete ruination in a few weeks of LD.

    “…the new Project Fear has got most conned in…they have been stitched up by hysteria.”

    There is no conspiracy – no Project Fear, no stitching up, and hysteria is not an agent.

  38. And we aren’t going to reach complete ruination in a few weeks of LD.

    I’m a teacher, so I get paid regardless. But if my wife’s business were to fold, it would cost us at least $500,000 directly. First the value of the business, then ten year’s of earnings (she’s in her fifties — there’s no way she’s getting a good job now). Then all the indirect costs for the next years — paying back the government debt in a reduced economy.

    And we don’t have it bad.

  39. Today numbers are in. Up by about 100 deaths ( 16% up ) at 684. ( https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/uk )

    So, last few days 583,589,684.

    @theophrastus – yeah, 10-15 to days to peak seems sensible, but i’m hoping a bit earlier than that.
    Like all the speculation about a long anticipated football match, we will eventually get to know.

  40. Theo:

    “Ok–but it is still distorting the figures in a way advantageous to those standing by while wholesale ruin heads our way.”

    T=Theo”It’s hardly “advantageous” to anyone to damage the economy.”

    No it isn’t– but Blojo doesn’t have to be Blofeld chortling about it to be still doing it. Start quoting the dole figures as well as the deaths. Because they matter more long term.

    “Why not issue such figures with a disclaimer –“with” does not mean “from”.”

    “T-That point has been made quite clearly. Also, the with-from distinction is not clear cut: it’s a matter of judgement.”

    On this blog it might have been –not in the fear-mongering tabloids.

    “2 more weeks of LD + another 2 for T(useless)PTB to make their mind up?”

    T-“Whatever they do, they aren’t going to ease LD at the peak. It would be irresponsible to do so. So it’s the end of April – at the earliest.”

    It was fucking irresponsible arse-covering to bring in a lockdown on the basis of Ferguson’s doom-mongering shite–but they did–and threw all our liberties out the window in10 seconds flat. I wouldn’t like to see this HoTraitors shower on a day of real irresponsibility then.

    “The economy should be ready to have a fork stuck in it by then.”

    T-“As Adam Smith observed: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.” And we aren’t going to reach complete ruination in a few weeks of LD.”

    Adam Smith lived in an age when most people still did for themselves or did without.Our economy was not in that good a state –2 tril state debt record company/ personal debt etc– beforehand. 105 thou joined dole in one day here–9.9 million–highest American unemployed EVER–in two weeks.

    Lets fucking hope you are correct Theo. I really do -as I don’t want to live what years I have left in Doug Casey’s The Greater Depression. But I suspect you are whistling past the graveyard on your way to a fresh set of underpants.

    “…the new Project Fear has got most conned in…they have been stitched up by hysteria.”

    T-“There is no conspiracy – no Project Fear, no stitching up, and hysteria is not an agent.”

    No formal conspiracy in the sense of sit-down meetings with Blojo-feld and his Pusssy. But Project Fear certainly existed and tell me that is not what the MSM are still up to. Maybe anti-British agit-prop is all they know how to do these days.

    And I still reckon that the SCS pushed Bloj to act on the useless doomery of Ferguson. Why is proven incompetent Ferg still on the payroll save that the SCS favour him? Same SCS recently into it with Patel. And who have now pushed Johnson into a situation where –once the damp squib coro is seen for what it is and folk get how much economic trouble we are in–his role as PM –if not the Tory rabble in general–will be in difficulties. To say the least.

    Hysteria is nothing in itself–it lives on the fears, foolery and vanity of human beings–and Johnson has those qualities in spades. The SCS put their creature Ferguson’s doom-casts on him and he pee’d his pants and rushed to the rescue.

    From SCS POV it is a no loss. If the bug is deadly–then Blojo ok-even in face of wealth loss–lives more important. No harm to SCS-they live to fight again. But get Johnson to stake all on bad outbreak -when you know your “modelling” protégé is useless and mass deaths likely aren’t going to happen–then you know LD results might easily see Blojo off. That will show jumped up PM’s –even with big maj–that you are still in charge. An SCS win either way.

  41. I know it’s tedious writing it all out, Mr Ecks, but it will make your posts more understandable (and perhaps more considered) if you avoid your own personal acronyms, abbreviations and insults. Blasting out multiple Blojos and CM cockrots will just confuse the non regulars. And if the regulars have to ask, you’re definitely not communicating.

  42. Latest data available,
    registered deaths in last four days 583,589,684,709
    are we perhaps near the peak?
    Friday is 22% up on Tuesday, fingers crossed we are on our way out of this.

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