I’m not paranoiac and they are all out to get me

The Visiting Senior Lecturer:

But the data is also grossly wrong. As Chris Giles, also of the FT has made clear, the scale of under-reporting of deaths is staggering,

Yep, they’re lying to us. And this is the institution that Snippa insists must run ever more of our lives:

The government is not continually acknowledging this. I suspect it is desperate to keep deaths at less than 1,000 a day. I suspect it is deliberately suppressing data as a result. I am sure that it knows the situation is much worse than it is reporting.

Really:

Our Covid-19 deaths are far worse than the government represents.

Of course, the musing is not merely paranoia, it’s also miserably illinformed:

Second, the data excludes those who would not have died but for Covid-19 because of treatment of those who have coronavirus. I will be astonished if deaths from other causes are not rising, significantly.

Well, no, not really. Those who would have died of some other ailment soon enough are largely those who do die of coronavirus. Not absolutely, of course, but largely. Further, we’re going to see rather a reduction in influenza deaths this year. Because while coronavirus isn’t quite an influenza it does take those who would – largely again – have gone from the normal winter influenza outbreak.

We’ve even got a bit of a clue here. At least so far all cause mortality doesn’t seem to have shifted. And our data on all cause is rather better than that down a level of granularity as to cause.

Eventually the rate of abnormal deaths will also be known: the Office for National Statistics issue death-rate data weekly, and it is no more than two weeks out of date. The falsification of this data will become apparent.

Well, actually, it’s entirely possible that there will be no change at all. It’s even within the bounds of statistically possibility that the all cause death rate has fallen in recent weeks.

And isn’t this lovely:

The real cost of this misinformation is going to be massive.

And I am angry about that. This government is engaging in a propaganda war it is bound to lose at cost to us all and is doing so simply to protect their own incompetence.

That is unforgivable. I hope they are not forgiven.

Again, this is about the institution that Snippa insists must have more power over us all. No doubt the tractor statistics will be entirely different tho’.

There’s also more than just a sneaking suspicion about a tad of projection here. Given the repeated infelicities of certain tax avoidance statistics might this be more a complaint about well, that’s what I would do if I were them?

48 thoughts on “I’m not paranoiac and they are all out to get me”

  1. Translation: I predicted 10 000 Covid deaths a day. Government statistics do not support this. Therefore the government is lying to us.

  2. Second, the data excludes those who would not have died but for Covid-19 because of treatment of those who have coronavirus. I will be astonished if deaths from other causes are not rising, significantly.

    I think (who actually knows) that the point he may be struggling to make is that if emergency and ICU departments in hospitals are overwhelmed, some people might die from (say) a stroke or heart attack who otherwise would have been successfully treated. There’s no sign of this happening at the moment, and there’s no way we could ever actually know, but (as Tim says) UK deaths from all causes are not increasing dramatically (or even significantly) as a result of Covid (yet).

  3. Which “government” is “suppressing data”. The politicians who are religiously reporting the data as provided by the ONS and NHS, with updates to include Covid-19-related deaths outside hospitals as and when they are reported? Or the angelic public sector employees? Or the BBC?
    Answers on a paper dart to be thrown through an open window in Ely so as to maintain social distance.

  4. This Richie fellow is a pompous twat, confidently stewing in his own ignorance.
    But there must come a point when it’s no longer amusing to deconstruct his waffle, a bit like kicking a defenceless animal. But not yet!

  5. For putting the number of CV deaths into perspective it’s useful to compare with a bad flu year. In England and Wales in eg winter of 2017-18 or 2014-15 there were 5,000 – 6,000+ “extra” weekly deaths above the average number for that year (figures from ONS).

    Maybe +~10% if Scotland and NI were included -> maximum in recent years of, say, 6,500.

    Over the past week in the UK, there have been 5,353 deaths attributed to CV (Worldometer data) so (taking this number at face value) its weekly mortality rate is currently similar to that of a bad flu.

    The total number of flu deaths in E&W over a bad flu year is ~25,000. To match this, CV would have to continue at last week’s rate for another month.

    Whether all the CV-attributed deaths are actually “additional” deaths will be clearer when ONS data become available.

  6. I should have noted that the “5,000 – 6,000+ “extra” weekly deaths” in a bad flu year were in the worst weeks. Generally the numbers are much lower but the outbreak continues for several months so as to reach total mortality of ~25,000,

  7. Bloke in North Dorset

    “ Answers on a paper dart to be thrown through an open window in Ely so as to maintain social distance.”

    Stuck on an RPG might be more socially useful.

  8. The Meissen Bison

    The Excess Winter Deaths for England & Wales are published by the ONS and the number of winter deaths tends to fluctuate from one year to the next. I imagine that after a year in which there is an above average number of Excess Winter Deaths the population is relatively more robust so that fewer die in the following year.

    Starting from winter 2000-2001, the lowest number of Excess Winter Deaths was 17,280 in 2013-14 and the highest was 49,410 in 2017-18. Last year the figure was ‘only’ 23,200 and a linear trend line would produce 33,390 Excess Winter Deaths for the current season.

    The ONS figures only come out after all the others but they have the advantage of not having been monkeyed about with.

  9. Bloke in North Dorset

    Does anyone know what the hell’s going on with testing?

    I’ve just been reading in the print version of the Telegraph that private companies have started offering free services to GPS and care homes and the like, but the government is still turning them away from helping with their general targets.

  10. In the socialist paradise the potato wishes to be in place he would be arrested for undermining the state with his conspiracy theories or some such offence.

    @rob “Does the fat lying fuck provide any evidence for this claim” – its beamed directly into his brain via 5g from David Icke.

  11. @TMB What you say about fewer dying in the year following a severe flu outbreak also works the other way about. This year’s flu season was relatively mild (judging by ONS mortality figures) leaving a significant number of people – possibly around 20,000 – who might have died earlier this year had the flu been more severe, like that of 2017-18. It may be that a large number of CV-related casualties will be among that cohort.

    Numbers don’t mean much without a context or something meaningful to compare them to. Current mortality figures of ~1,000 CV-attributed deaths a day alarm the media, public and politicians. Similar figures attributed to flu occurred during the winters of 2017-18 and 2014-15 without anybody noticing.

  12. One has to hope that the anger generated by the staggering cover ups and lying of the Govt does not cause our heroic COVID-19 survivor to burst a blood vessel or two, thus adding an extra pip to the COVID-19 stats in Ely.

  13. The more hot air the left scream as to how Johnson isn’t doing enough the better it will be when people see that we have been ruined over nowt.

    I have said the MSM will try to memory-hole the left’s going -along with the states stupidity and create a “We knew it was a hysterical over-reaction all along” new narrative.

    But the more squealing they have done about “under-action” the more difficult their new narrative to will find it to establish itself.

  14. Hang on – the reported stats don’t say how many died OF CORVID-19, only how many died WITH the disease. So by definition the stats are over-reporting the numbers.

    Flu deaths, on the other hand, only record those who die OF the flu.

    Hector Drummond of this parish has been doing sterling work trying to explain this: https://hectordrummond.com/

  15. Abacab, it is naive to assume that flu deaths are known. On another post, dearieme clarified that flu deaths are ascertained after the fact by statistical jiggery pokery. Post mortem analysis is not done for every death. And in any case the cause of death is often a matter of opinion…. Heart disease, flu,…?

  16. Dennis, Tiresome Denizen of Central Ohio

    Once again, I am struck by just how desperate Murphy is to have utter disaster materialize.

  17. The Left have been attributing 130,000 deaths to “austerity”. Now that the economy has taken such a massive hit as to reduce GDP by what, 15-20%, how many extra deaths can we attribute to the recession? And should we therefore stop the lockdown? Or was the original claim bogus?

  18. The Meissen Bison

    Theo 🙂

    Simon A What you say about fewer dying in the year following a severe flu outbreak also works the other way about. This year’s flu season was relatively mild (judging by ONS mortality figures)

    True but there can be significant spikes after week 13. Yes, 2018 saw big spikes in weeks 2 and 10 but there was a further spike in week 15 in which 12,300 deaths were recorded.

  19. @TMB You’re right. The UK flu season is nominally taken to run from Dec to Mar but later spikes are possible. If there were to be such a late increase in flu deaths under current circumstances, the excess deaths may well be taken by default to be due to CV. For a proper estimation of CV’s mortality rate one has to hope there’s no such confounding factor.

  20. Nautical nick, it is unkind to think of such eminent folk as Simon Wrong-Lewis as bogus, but he is a weed

  21. The Meissen Bison

    Simon A: For a proper estimation of CV’s mortality rate one has to hope there’s no such confounding factor.

    The confounding factor is built-in which is why I’m so disinclined to buy what the govt are selling. Covid-19 is notifiable which would normally mean that all deaths so reported would have to be notified to the coroner but there is an exemption in place so that this one notifiable disease is to be treated differently from all other notifiable diseases. Deaths thought to be covid-19 should be recorded as covid-19.

    So if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck but quacks like a horse, it’s a duck.

  22. Covid-19 defeats seasonal flu!

    The one to look at is pneumonia. Many CV deaths would have been attributed to pneumonia before.

  23. Plod’s out in force tonight.

    Seven of them, wombling over to the Vibrants. The Vibrants eez gon tho, innit.

    Earlier today, rozzers in a womblemobile near Parliament Hill, lest anyone unlawfully, illegally and with malice a forethought be enjoying the sun and, er, fresh air.

    Lords and Commons of England, etc…

  24. The daily deaths from NHS and PHE are of those newly reported, not died on that day, so the daily counts are not much use, and added up a a cumulative count just create big-scary-graph. ONS figures are a bit behind but can be relied upon not least because they will have been registered by someone with an incentive to do so fairly promptly; no registration, no death certificate, without a death cert impossible to arrange funeral and settle the deceased affairs.
    In the next week or two it is possible that a) there will be a rise in the ONS ‘respiratory deaths’ category as a result of COVID-19 b) that the COVID-19 deaths will be more than the respiratory deaths as a result of counting all those ‘with’ but not ‘of’.

    So far this year there is nothing exceptional in the weekly figures from ONS

  25. For the next 3 weeks the weekly figures for the ONS will show exceptional changes.
    If anyone wants to frame a bet around that ( £10 to CT to the loser ) please do so.
    Now it’s quite reasonable to expect that if you take a 5 year average, and say that the winter flu season lasts for 15 weeks, then 3 of those weeks are going to be above that 5 year average. On average. There’s nothing remarkable about that. But the next 3 weeks will be above that rolling average for sure.

  26. @TMB

    It’s true that there’s currently more scope that usual for causes of death to be misclassified. However, so long as there’s no late “post-season” surge in flu deaths, the total number of deaths should be an accurate count of all deaths, including those due to CV, which can then be compared to the total for a bad flu season. On current numbers, it seems possible that the total mortality will be less than that for a recent flu season – say the 49,410 figure you give for 2017-18 (I think that’s just E&W so would be around 55,000 for all UK).

    FWIW, I tend towards the views in this letter, written to the Telegraph a few weeks ago by a retired doctor who qualified in 1953 so must now be over 90:

    ‘I have been reflecting on how we would have reacted to a coronavirus epidemic in those days. The answer is not at all, for three main reasons. The Covid-19 virus could not have been identified rapidly enough, if at all. Most cases would have been too mild to attract attention in this season of coughs and sneezes. And the small proportion of deaths among elderly people with chronic respiratory disease would have remained much as usual for the time of year.

    It follows that there would have been no alarm or counter-measures. International trade and travel would have carried on as usual. World stock markets would not have collapsed. And governments would not have needed to get involved. As it is today, we know too much about the coronavirus for our own good, but almost nothing about treating its victims or preventing its spread.’

  27. I’m having a jolly pleasant few weeks off. At the back of my mind is the appreciation that the youngers of my family will be even more fucked than already was the case but, yunno. Stuff happens. It’s all for shits and giggles. And won’t someone think of the… er,…

    I wonder how differently I might have been thinking, had I been an eco-loon.

  28. @’Simon Anthony, Bongo

    Yes

    All-Cause Mortality Surveillance 09 April 2020 – Week 15 report (up to week 14 data)
    .

    In week 14 2020, statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall and by age group in the 15-64 and 65+ year olds and in all regions in England, through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed for Northern Ireland and Wales in week 14 and for Scotland in week 12 2020
    .
    All-cause death registrations (ONS), England and Wales – In week 13 2020, an estimated 11,141 all-cause deaths (excluding COVID-19 deaths) were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics). This is an increase compared to the 10,645 estimated death registrations in week 12 2020.
    .
    Excess all-cause (EuroMOMO) mortality in subpopulations, UK – In week 14 2020 in England, statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above the upper 2 z-score threshold was seen overall, by age group in the 15 -64 and 65+ year olds and sub nationally (all ages) in all regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire & Humber, East & West Midlands, East of England, London and South East & West regions after correcting GRO disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO algorithm (Figure 1). This data is provisional due to the time delay in registration; numbers may vary from week to week
    .
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878916/Weekly_all_cause_mortality_surveillance_week_15_2020_report.pdf

    Graph shows a delayed spike in 2020 and slightly higher than 2017 and 2018

    imo nothing to be concerned about so far

    I wonder what psychological health effects Project You Will Die has on those infected. Same on the Feb low initial winter deaths spike – was this due to peeps not worrying about seasonal Flu as MSM not inducing usual fear about it?

  29. @BiND

    NHS/PHE do not want and obstructing private sector encroaching on their territory for fear Gov & Public will demand it’s permanent

    I reported on this last Sunday. It’s same in USA with CDC, FDA, FEMA etc

    Delers on Aus TV – Tanking World Economy was wrong and UK denying HydroxyChloroquine is reprehensible
    ‘Doomsday pandemic models’ have not accurately portrayed coronavirus progression
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=godiIIoe-bs

    Coronavirus vaccine trial launched in South Australia
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBu0KqYPtUc

    There has been evidence those who received BCG vaccine less at risk and calls for it to be restarted in UK

  30. @Chris Miller

    if emergency and ICU departments in hospitals are overwhelmed

    They’re not. Below is USA, but similar reports of idle staff in NHS

    – USA: Hospitals closing as no patients, ventilators stockpiled as not needed
    https://youtu.be/SnG6_D724nc?t=79

    Models’ predictions wrong Again

    – Faulty Models Led To Shutdowns
    https://youtu.be/wsE6IkGM-I8?t=94

    Dems/Left exploitation and MSM & Medical ‘”Experts” ‘if it saves one life’ mantra are making situation worse

    @BiG

    HydroxyChloroquine
    https://youtu.be/wsE6IkGM-I8?t=361

    BBC, BMA, Guardian, NHS, PHE still against it ‘we need proper long-term tests’ [by which time CV-19 gone and many more dead] #OrangeManBad

  31. @Jim

    USA Surgeon General Adams [who is black] has urged communities of colour to stay home and practice social distancing measures, as data shows the death tolls are higher among Hispanics and blacks in parts of the US
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coSVhlGIdXE

    It’s genetic, only fix is eugenics. UK Gov should be informing black/brown, not hiding from ‘you’re racist’ mob. No inquiry needed

  32. It’s genetic, only fix is eugenics. UK Gov should be informing black/brown, not hiding from ‘you’re racist’ mob. No inquiry needed

    Its politics, not medicine.

    For the left, every disparity in outcomes by group is due to white racism. They teach this in University.

  33. @Flubber

    “…For the left, every disparity in outcomes by group is due to white racism. They teach this in University…..”

    So Sickle Cell Anaemia is a racist plot, since it occurs in black people, while Cystic Fibrosis, which overwhelmingly occurs in whites, is an indication of white privilege…

  34. Pcar 11.31 differentiating death tolls

    Might be interesting to see the clip but youtube is becoming increasingly shite – multiple fucking unavoidable adverts, it’s becoming completely unusable at times, so not bothering.

  35. I consider distancing to be effective.

    When I hear of certain groups experiencing higher levels of CV infection, I immediately suspect the group is not practicing distancing. Therefore, if there really is a higher incidence for blacks, my buddy Occam says it’s probably their socialization and culture that is getting them in trouble.

  36. Surreptitious Evil

    When I hear of certain groups experiencing higher levels of CV infection, I immediately suspect the group is not practicing distancing.

    The endemic diabetes and hypertension don’t help either. Blame genetics, poverty, or the economic disparities of the US health system. But similar is being seen in the UK with the envy of the world, free at the point of uselessness NHS, so it’s your idea or a combination of my first two.

  37. Time for the periodic repetition of the obvious.

    Character disorder*/personality disorder is the attribution of the cause of one’s problems to someone else. Basic psychology. The Left has found that accommodating group character disorder – even encouraging it – can gain them power. American blacks vote Democrat** monolithically. Cause Dems encourage them to believe that wypipo cause their problems. It is a very cynical approach. Instead of helping blacks with their psychological problems, the Dems feed them.

    *What it used to be called.
    **The same people who aggressively kill their unborn babies.

  38. If it didn’t boost his ego the government ought to have him and the equally odious Rupert Read, another eco terrorise loon arrested for sedition. By any standards this outburst is deranged, and as Denis says he seems to welcome the outcome of COVID ‘19 being as disastrous as possible. Certainly one of the most evil men in Britain, if not the world.

    It’s said (and it’s a sentiment I have uttered) that his total lack of connection with reality and evident mental breakdown means that the ‘Ragging on Ritchie’ section ought to be discontinued. However, once the crisis subsides its vital we all act in Noel Scoper like fashion and refer continually to his lies, assertions and Indeed every piece of misinformation this worthless grotesque has put out there. He must answer for his myriad crimes…

  39. Pcar

    It’s not ads, I use the same tools you are using, uBlock, uMatrix etc, it’s the “feature” articles that they insist precede the clip you want to see. Sometimes thankfully brief, fine, other times, they’re a bloody nuisance, and not skippable. It’s variable I’m sure, so probably individual experiences are different.

    I turned the sound down on one (it went for two minutes/unskippable), and so the fuckers simply insisted on re-playing the trash again! Fuck fucking you-tube.

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