No, really, no, Times Subs.

Acceleration and speed are not the same thing:

In the second quarter, growth is forecast to plunge by 30%. Goldman Sachs predicts a 9% drop in the first quarter and an astonishing 34% slump in the second.

GDP growth was, before C, around 2%. So, a 30% drop in growth would mean a fall in growth to perhaps 1.4%. This would be mildly irritating and nothing more.

If GDP us about $20 trillion (roughly right) then a 30% drop in GDP means a fall to $14 trillion. This is slightly confused by the way that the US uses monthly and or quarterly GDP but reports them at an annualised rate. Ho hum.

Still, a shaving of the growth rate by 30% is significantly different from a change in GDP of 30%, yes?

More normally this error runs the other way, people mistaking changes in the rate for changes in the underlying. Still an error though.

3 thoughts on “No, really, no, Times Subs.”

  1. Lets pray you are right Tim.

    But I think umployment and business collapse via debt knockon will do far worse than just halve the growth.

    We have no idea how long the Blonde Turd plans to carry this caper on.

    Hear that he is having lots of pressure put on him to extend the 31/12/20 EU deadline tho’.

    I would have to also hope that he really can’t be that stupid–to fuck the foundation of his Dec win and the one thing that (largely thanks to EU stupidity) was going quite well for him.

    And if he proves a jellyfish then the EU trash will try to claim 100s of billions more to support their ailing Empire.

    600 b budget +330 b emerg package+? 100s of billions nore for EU. That should do fucking miracles for inflation.

    If Starmer can lie with any skill–I don’t think he can but in a country full of desperate , frightened people who don’t know where their next meal is coming from–we might yet see that ZanU shower voted in to finish us off completely.

    It might seem unlikely now but ruin hasn’t hit us yet.

  2. A recurrent gripe of mine, is when the Sunday Times, in particular, report “low” Corporation Tax on a turnover of….

    Grrr!

  3. He needs to decisively fence himself in and declare that the £300bn emergency Covid19 support is financed through not sending money to the EU.

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