Seems entirely logical

About half of all Covid-19 deaths appear to be happening in care homes in some European countries,

Disease that preferentially culls old folks culls folk in places with lots of oldies. The surprise here is?

And the difference between this and influenza, pneumonia is?

28 thoughts on “Seems entirely logical”

  1. Is the difference ‘we don’t cripple our economy and hand over massive powers to idiots that abuse them’ over influenza and pneumonia..?

  2. “Disease that preferentially culls old folks culls folk in places with lots of oldies.”

    Not just full of oldies, but oldies frail enough to need care. I was reading the NHS guidelines on Covid-19 decision making (published in the FT) and being frail enough to require care home support gets you 6 or more points. More than 8 points and you don’t get ICU treatment.

  3. Bloke in North Dorset

    One thing that seems to have been forgotten is that social distancing and lock downs were about “flattening the curve” so that health care systems didn’t get overwhelmed and exacerbate the problem. Either intentionally or unintentionally, my bet’s on the former, they showed roughly the same area under the curve, implying that the overall death rate would be the same.

    It now looks like the we’ve reached a peak and there’s plenty of spare capacity so the plan worked, coupled with the fairly impressive task of building extra capacity in the form of temporary hospitals*. Its now time to start opening up, slowly, even if deaths doesn’t continue to decline at the same rate. The economy can’t stand waiting for a vaccine and nothing else is on the horizon, as well as all the other problems the lock down is causing eg mental health, domestic violence etc.

    *Conveniently putting paid to the lie that only authoritarian regimes can act quickly in a crises.

  4. Arthur the cat – to add to that, private insurance writing to those old folks saying – if you get it, sorry you have to rely on the NHS, but we’ll give you a payment.

  5. BiND–Tell that to Blojo and the gang. Sitting like stuffed dummys talking crap about the NHS while the economy burns now seems to be their plan.

  6. @Arthur- yup. People are dying all the time in care homes, often after falling over, which gives you an idea how frail they are. COVID-19, like a nasty flu strain, will rampage through these places. Had my old man lived to see today – and I’m not sure he’d want to have added another 3 years of ill-health and frailty to his span – it would have done for him.

    @BiND -agreed, but it looks like you’re going to get another 2 weeks of full lockdown.

    I have noticed that the lockdown is starting to take its toll on family and friends in the UK, even the well-adjusted ones.

  7. Herr Oberst Kartoffel’s TACs project is the same old waffle with a different brand name. He truly is a disgusting, evil little toad.

  8. Bloke in North Dorset

    A sister-in-law has been bed-ridden in hospital and a care home for well over 6 months now. She’s not getting out of bed again and rarely understands where she is, the same goes for a lot of the other patients in the home. She hardly drinks and her daughter was forcing her, but now isn’t allowed to visit. Presumable the staff are still trying. A few years back she would have been well down the Liverpool Care Pathway, if she hadn’t succumbed to it by now.

    Not every old person in care homes is in the same position and some are managing to lead quite fulfilling lives and some old people are making a massive contribution. We should do all we can to protect them, every death being an individual tragedy, but there’s a big difference between the government being negligent that leads to deaths the second order effects of making difficult decisions.

  9. “Either intentionally or unintentionally, my bet’s on the former, they showed roughly the same area under the curve, implying that the overall death rate would be the same.”
    No, the area under the curve is the number who need urgent care from the health system. The fraction that dies depends on whether the health system is able to provide that care.
    The death rate rockets if the demand busts the capacity of the system. Hence the importance of reducing the height of the peak even if the area remains the same. There’s normally a horizontal line on the graph showing what the health service can handle.

  10. Bloke in North Dorset

    MC,

    Maher’s definitely in the anti Trump gang, which is why that monologue has been so successful. If it had been, say, Tucker Carlson, it would have been dismissed as just another right-wing rant and dismissed by the liberal (USA meaning) media.

  11. “Conveniently putting paid to the lie that only authoritarian regimes can act quickly in a crises.”

    Also putting pay to the lie that we need a bits of paper in place before we can do anything, if when the chips are down we can manage quite happily (and safely without them).

  12. Conveniently putting paid to the lie that only authoritarian regimes can act quickly in a crises.

    Or possibly demonstrating how a supposedly benign democacy can transform itself into an authoritarian regime in a pig’s whistle.

  13. “We should do all we can to protect them”: if “all we can” implies infinite cost, then no we shouldn’t. If it doesn’t imply infinite cost then what does it imply? Is it as vacuous as that faux-manly expression “do whatever it takes”?

  14. Jim,

    Also putting pay to the lie that we need a bits of paper in place before we can do anything

    Reading the reports tweets from America, the yanks are sticking firmly to their bits of paper. Hospitals daren’t supply staff with slightly substandard PPE – even if it’s better than nothing – lest they get sued. In February, a researcher in Seattle (Dr Helen Chu) was explicitly told by the CDC to stop testing for Covid-19.

    The American penchant for litigation is a powerful disincentive to taking action now. Much the same is happening here with the armed forces: soldiers are being sued years (or even decades) later for offences allegedly committed in the heat of battle.

  15. “Or possibly demonstrating how a supposedly benign democacy can transform itself into an authoritarian regime in a pig’s whistle.”

    Yes, I’ve been thinking about this, Mr B. The parliamentary draftsmen had ready a doorstop piece of legislation just ready to take from the shelf and dust off … change a few words here and there, and Bob’s your father’s brother.

    But there are insufficient stocks of PPE because PHE did not prepare for a pandemic.

    It really does go to show what the inherent tendency of government is.

  16. I’ve seen figures for care homes that are an average of 2 years life span once admitted and 65% die in the first 12 months, so hardly surprising is it.
    Also saw some figures for UK that non-hospital including care home deaths were 400ish so the half most likely either Italy and Spain or places that likely have a very different policy on care home to hospital admittances

  17. ’Also putting pay to the lie that we need a bits of paper in place before we can do anything’

    Next have said that despite 3,000 warehouse staff offering to come back to work they can only bring them back slowly as they need to complete a new safety course on social distancing.

    Will be interesting to see how this plays out as lockdown is relaxed and people are told they can’t go back to work without a new mandatory H&S course

  18. Well, since we are all supposed to be working from home now, couldn’t Next do their mandatory H&S training online and have their staff sign a disclaimer as such?

  19. BniC is right. Latest published data for coronavirus-related mortality in 10+ thousand Care Homes is 217 against 12,107 in hospital.
    So that’s >96% hospital, <2% Care Homes, <2% all others.
    Murphy insists that HMG is hiding vast numbers of deaths by reporting the hospital figures, which are available promptly, instead of waiting for a couple of weeks to give the total.

  20. Bloke in North Dorset

    “We should do all we can to protect them”: if “all we can” implies infinite cost, then no we shouldn’t. If it doesn’t imply infinite cost then what does it imply? Is it as vacuous as that faux-manly expression “do whatever it takes”?

    You’re in a particularly grumpy mood today. I’d have thought it was obvious from what I’d said that that wasn’t what I meant.

    “We should do all we can reasonably do to physically protect them while they isolate at home when the restrictions start being lifted”

  21. There seem to be regular complaints that the published Corvid-19 death figures don’t include those who died outside hospitals. But surely those who diead outside hospital with/of Corvid-19 would have died with something else anyway, if not they wouldn’t have been tipped over the edge by Corvid-19 in the first place.

  22. jgh, Yes, if they were seriously ill and had a chance of recovery they would be taken to hospital. John77 has quoted the care home figure above, 2%. So, not a vast number and probably not the primary cause of death.

  23. Remember the Diamond Princess cruise ship harboured in Japan back in January with infected passengers on board. 61 of those on board that cruise ship have still not recovered from COVID-19. Over 11 weeks on seems an awful long time to be recovering from this illness.

    Anyone got any reasons why?

  24. Nigel, I suspect “recovered” means no longer testing positive.

    That can be quite different from feeling fine.

  25. Recovered statistics are the worst of the lot, they don’t get reported or they start then stop.
    In Canada some of the provinces report a recovered figure and some don’t so the Canadian figure is meaningless, even taking into account they may all be measuring it differently as it’s not mandatory.
    Given how even the ONS weekly deaths is weird this week with 6,000 above average deaths with 3,000 CV deaths in the week I’m wondering if there’s any reliable stats.
    Hat tip to Hector Drummond and the work on his blog to dig into the stats.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *