Stupendous evidence!

So, the claim is that when the economy was locked down is the key to deaths from coronavirus. Of course, this being Snippa this means that the Tories, the bastards, decided to let everyone die for mere money’s sake.

The message is the same for the reasons John Burn-Murdoch notes: population is not an issue; when you acted was.

And our government acted far too late.

The evidence used to support this is:

If you squint you’ll see Sweden there. Which hasn’t gone into lockdown at all. Which has a lower death rate.

And this is being used as evidence that the earlier the lockdown the lower the death rate?

Only in World of Tuber, eh?

44 thoughts on “Stupendous evidence!”

  1. Misread it. One per million, not ‘one million’.

    So yes, it was just me.

    Working v hard at the moment, ahem.

  2. You don’t have to squint quite so hard to see that Socialist Spain is the most infected. What conclusion should one draw from that…?

  3. How accurate or meaningful is a chart like that really?
    Genuine question.
    First you have to make sure that Covid related deaths are measured in the same way in each country. Then you have the issue of different countries with different demographics. Then you have geographic differences. Countries with a higher density urban population compared with say, Sweden, which is less densly populated. And of course, you have to find the start point for each countries chart, first deaths, first ICU admissions?

  4. Australia is about 2.5 deaths per million and NZ about 2. The key was shutting the borders to all but residents and making returning residents quarantine for two weeks. By contrast, the UK is still happily welcoming people from Spain, Italy, Iran and New York.

  5. Sorry, ignore last part of comment. Was doing a ‘Lud’
    But point still stands.
    I think Hector Drummond’s approach of comparing historic overall deaths every year is a more enlightening way of doing things.

  6. If the left had stuck to their orig line that CCPvirus is no big deal then they might have had a potent weapon against the govt.

    But by dropping that and going even more mental than Blojo they have fucked themselves.

  7. Until antibody tests are rolled out across sample populations we have absolutely no idea of the actual prevalence making the statistics meaningless and all models based on them imaginative.

  8. The Left, which claims to care about poverty and its ability to kill, is all for the lockdown, and claims that its consequences mainly affect an abstraction called “the economy”.

    This demonstrates – as if anyone sane had any doubts – that The Left’s business is coercion and control; the poor are only a means to an end.

  9. The thing is that the lockdown was imposed to slow down the spread of the disease. The virus is still out there being carried around by asymptomatic carriers and people who are incubating it. The modelling all shows that if you squash the early part of the curve, you get subsequent waves – for Spanish flu, there were 3 waves. The same number of people probably die, it’s just that we didn’t want all the cases to happen in Match, April and May. However, we don’t really know how lethal it is because we have no clue about the people carrying and incubating as yet. This is why apps such as the Zoe one I posted about last week are important

  10. Where is the graphic depicting deaths caused by denial of treatment for critical non cov patients by the NHS which we are all paying for anyway?

  11. There is some good news! Over on Spud’s website….

    “I am applying for funding for this project, but if I don’t get it donations might help. Like so many others, my income looks like it might be well down quite soon. I cease employment quite soon and everything else I do is project-based, and that’s very uncertain right now. I will be opening an appeal soon.”

  12. @ Diogenes

    The modelling all shows that if you squash the early part of the curve, you get subsequent waves – for Spanish flu, there were 3 waves. The same number of people probably die, it’s just that we didn’t want all the cases to happen in March, April and May.

    I don’t think it’s quite true that the same number of people will die – the idea (which seems to have some basis in evidence) is that there are Xn people who would die without ITU care who will survive with it, and thus that if we can keep the capacity in ITU from being overwhelmed these people will survive. So three smaller waves is better than one bigger wave, even if precisely the same number of people are infected. Additonally, the longer you spread out the numbers the more time the boffins have to coome up with vaccines and treatments.

    Latest ONS figures out today show 16387 people died this week against a five year average for this week of 10305. Basically, 6,000 more deaths this week, or 60% higher. This is obviously very back of a fag packet, but if replicated over a 52 week year that is 60% of 620,000 odd, or 372,000 additional deaths. What is going to be very hard to discern is (as per the above) what number of those 372,000 would have died anyway.

  13. Population adjustment and reporting daily deaths rather than cumulative are obvious – strange almost no one is reporting that way. Our World in Data do this much better by looking at death rate rather than cumulative deaths.

    If we look at a 5 day moving average (that OWiD don’t provide sadly, but here is a similar one of my own) then the “worst” countries of Europe all seem to be converging on about 10-12 deaths per million per day. I think it’s not unreasonable to use the death rate as a proportional proxy for a wider cross sectional population trial, so give us a fair comparison as well as a good idea of whether things are getting better or worse in individual countries. The hospital usage data should then give us an idea of how this translates to what our target should be to properly balance health, economy and personal freedoms. Sweden’s looking to have got that balance pretty much right so far through limited restrictions and voluntary behavioural change without overwhelming their health system. The WHO on the other hand is suggesting we adjust to a “new norm” of Chinese-style authoritarian government before relaxing any “rules”… thanks but no thanks.

  14. O/T I got a ‘posting too quickly’ message on the post above, even though it was my first today. But I see Grendel’s post has the same timestamp. Could this be the problem, Richard?

  15. Australia is about 2.5 deaths per million and NZ about 2. The key was shutting the borders to all but residents and making returning residents quarantine for two weeks.

    And being fucking miles from everywhere.

  16. Latest ONS figures out today show 16387 people died this week against a five year average for this week of 10305. Basically, 6,000 more deaths this week…

    Yes, but only 3475 were COVID-19 deaths. There were 2500+ extra non-COVID-19 deaths this last week. This during a period when road traffic is a small fraction of normal and most people are cocooned in their homes.

    Why is there a large number of extra non-COVID-19 deaths when you might expect there to be fewer? Are we seeing the effect of the lockdown on other medical needs? Is the lockdown killing nearly as many people as COVID-19?

  17. MC,

    Australia is closer to Wuhan than Europe, but it closed its borders with China early on and prevented thousands of Chinese students from returning for the start of the new university year.

    Yes, Aus and NZ have advantages, but what is very clear is that the majority of cases and deaths have been from those who traveled overseas or had close contact with them.

    I cannot believe that the UK government thought it was, and still is, okay to keep allowing people from the worst affected areas to come to the UK while imposing draconian measures on its citizens.


  18. DocBud
    April 14, 2020 at 10:52 am
    Australia is about 2.5 deaths per million and NZ about 2. The key was shutting the borders to all but residents and making returning residents quarantine for two weeks.”

    Couple of things;

    It’s summer in the southern hemishpere.
    Australia has not locked down to the degree of NZ/UK, people are working, shops are open, cafes are open and you can get a hair cut.
    Trow Japan and Taiwan into that chart and it’s sobering

    From what I can see there is little difference made by these lockdowns at all.

  19. There aren’t going to be any 372000 extra deaths any more than 50000 died on Easter Sunday.

    And if the haulage industry is in big trouble we will have squaddies handing out rations from trucks third world style.

    Protect the vulnerable and end the lockdown NOW is what we need.

  20. If you think about New York and London what you really need is some sort of indices of social contact with and without lock down. My guess is the Swedes observe social distancing guidelines and are geographically distant anyway.
    One way or another the death rate in the UK is now taking off from its usual overall pattern. We are bit like people desperately holding up a dam watching the trickle that gets though and trying gather some meaning from it .Its the fucking flood on the other side thats a the problem.

    Libertarian loon ” Oh come off it only 5% of my house is on fire ..might as well watch the end of Question time ..”

  21. Sweden doesn’t have a mandatory lockdown, but most office workers are working from home, 16-18 schooling is by internet, and there is a high degree of voluntary distancing. By law, no gatherings of more than 50 people, so no concerts or sports; pubs and restaurants can only do table service (many have gone to take-out only).
    Retail, hospitality and entrrtainment are suffering greatly.

  22. PJF ”
    Why is there a large number of extra non-COVID-19 deaths when you might expect there to be fewer? ”

    I don’t think taking one week alone is a good comparison.
    There are 6,000 extra for one week compared to the average for the same week in the past five years. But week by week varies greatly from year to year. If you take cumulative-year-to-date, then at week 14 the five-year average is 164,173 and 2020 166,444 so that makes it less than 2,300 above average for the year so far. It will get worse for a couple of weeks. It may drop after that as there won’t be many very old and frail people left to infect.

  23. Its the fucking flood on the other side thats a the problem.

    But there is no flood. There is only an estimated flood based on making assumptions about the trickles.

  24. We are bit like people desperately holding up a dam watching the trickle that gets though and trying gather some meaning from it .Its the fucking flood on the other side thats a the problem.

    A dam has to be flooded on the other side, by definition.
    If it isn’t normally flooded on one side, what you have is a wall.
    Just pointing that out.

  25. Its the fucking flood on the other side thats a the problem.

    Are you Italian?
    Is that why you’re such a big fan of the EU?

  26. I sneeze in threes

    I wonder if the number of murders of spouses or parents have increased? “Oh granny had a temperature for a couple of days and this morning we found her stone cold”.

  27. David Moore,

    Cafes and restaurants are not open, although many have reinvented themselves as takeaways, often providing delivery.

    Part of the problem in Australia is that states have different rules, with the Socialist Republic of Victoria being one of the worst for senseless regulations and an overzealous plod (renowned for being both corrupt and useless when it comes to protecting people from real crimes such as African gangs). A couple were fined $3304 for posting year old travel photos because dumb plod thought that they showed them breaching social distancing regulations. Another guy was fined for going paddle boarding on his own off a beach 200m from his home.

  28. God, I remember when Tim Blair had an actual blog. Quite like this one but busier. Such good laughs. Back when “fisking” was aimed at Robert Fisk.

  29. Could be a bit of a reverse George Washington effect going on. Founding fathers of the world’s greatest ever country, Washington and Adams, famously died on its 50th anniversary. If you have something to live for, then an old boy can push himself.
    Take away that cancelled cruise, trip to your grand-daughter’s wedding, seeing Leeds get promoted followed by a slap up restaurant meal at Akbars, whatever floats your boat is ripped away and you decide to check out. The elderly do have some control it seems over when they choke.
    There’s a book I read ( can’t recall the name though ) which mentioned higher numbers of old people dying during the ’95 baseball strike. Nothing to look forward to.
    Would love to be proved right, It’s a lot of speculation to account for 2k+ deaths in one week.

  30. @Bongo
    Anecdotal but wife worked in ICU for years and is a firm believer in the will to live, said you’d see people you expect to make it just fade away while others you’d think had no chance pulled through. So I’d say you may well have a point, consider also no hospital visits no attending funerals etc. and the lack of other family support stuff that can help pull people through, holistic health seems to have gone out the window right now.

  31. djc said:
    “week by week varies greatly from year to year.”

    Aye, but this latest figure is high. 16,387 weekly deaths, when it’s rare to hit 13,000.

    The only times the weekly figure has been over 13,000 in the last 5 years are:
    – 4 weeks in 2018, highest 15,050;
    – 2 weeks in 2017, highest 13,715;
    – 1 week in 2016, 13,045;
    – 3 weeks in 2015, highest 16,237

    Hopefully it looks like things are settling down, so overall it’s going to be like 2018 or 2015 – the sort of bad ‘flu that comes round once every few years.

    But very interesting that something like 40% of the increase isn’t even dying “with” corvid19, never mind dying “of”. All part of the cost vs benefits of lockdown?

  32. Ruining the economy is far more danger and trouble than a flu that can’t even match Hong Kong 1968.

    Sunak is also now revealed as an arrogant prick by his latest “Ruined–too bad –we got it right” speech. I intend to follow his forthcoming downfall as one of the very few bright spots of the next few very unpleasant years.

  33. Bloke in North Dorset

    Anecdotal but wife worked in ICU for years and is a firm believer in the will to live, said you’d see people you expect to make it just fade away while others you’d think had no chance pulled through. So I’d say you may well have a point, consider also no hospital visits no attending funerals etc. and the lack of other family support stuff that can help pull people through, holistic health seems to have gone out the window right now.

    I’ve heard similar from hospice nurses, patients have hung on against all the odds until distant relatives have arrived to see them.

    On the funeral point: It was my cousin’s funeral yesterday (cancer) and all they could do was put a camera on so we could watch via Zoom. It was really sad seeing just the coffin, pastor, his wife, daughter and her husband and a 3 week old baby. We later had a Zoom call when memories were shared and we drank a toast.

    I think I was more emotionally drained than if I’d been there, so God knows what its done to his wife an her grieving process.

    And it was our 36th wedding anniversary. So all in all a weird day.

  34. RichardT “But very interesting that something like 40% of the increase isn’t even dying “with” corvid19, never mind dying “of”. All part of the cost vs benefits of lockdown?”

    I’ve been puzzling over this. My previous understanding was that COVID-19 would show up as an increase in respiratory deaths, that if not a respiratory death then it was ‘with’ not ‘of’. But although respiratory deaths increase greatly in week 14 as expected, there are not enough to explain the total increase. So there must either be a lot of deaths attributed to COVID-19 pure and simple, or COVID-19 is precipitating a lot of deaths from other underlying causes.

  35. BiND,

    My mum is convinced that my nan hung on until my mum got to the hospital, climbed into bed with her and hugged her. At that point my nan passed away.

    When my dad had pneumonia in 2010, he refused to die. A fellow patient on his ward told us how hard the staff had worked to keep him alive. It was because of the impact of the consequences of that bout of pneumonia that we discovered and fell in love with West Bay. When in October 2015, facing another winter of hospital and rehabilitation due to respiratory issues, he told my mum he didn’t want to go through it anymore and, sure enough, he passed away.

  36. PJF / Richard T / djc

    The extra deaths that apparently aren’t Covid 19.

    This article suggests that there may be massive incompetence with hospitals sending Covid patients to care homes to get them out of the hospitals, in some cases care homes not even knowing that they are Covid patients! Cue more deaths, Italian style… Yes, yes, wonder of the world etc. But possibilities with regard to explaining some of those extra deaths that are apparently not Covid.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/15/discharging-coronavirus-patients-care-homes-madness-government/

    Simply quoting from the article:

    “Discharging coronavirus patients into care homes is ‘madness’, Government told

    Growing evidence that policy, which Health Secretary said would continue, is fuelling virus outbreaks and deaths

    The policy of sending coronavirus patients into care homes was originally designed to free up 15,000 hospital beds to cope with a major virus outbreak.

    Jeremy Hilton, the group leader on Gloucester City Council, said a care home under his supervision had been hit by a major outbreak after accepting around six hospital patients suffering from Covid-19.

    “A person is dying at that home every day now,” he told The Telegraph. “How can it be safe to send sick people into a home where elderly people are supposed to be cocooned away from the rest of us? It’s madness.

    Meanwhile, new figures showed that a quarter of coronavirus deaths in Scotland have occurred in care homes. National Records of Scotland (NRS) statistics found that 237 (24.6 per cent) of the 962 fatalities recorded from the start of the outbreak until Sunday this week had happened in care homes.

    If applied to the rest of the UK, the figures would suggest that around 4,000 care home residents have so far died from the virus.

    The death toll starkly contrasts with data from the Office for National Statistics, published on Tuesday, which said 217 people died in care homes in England and Wales up to April 3. “

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