This is probably the way to bet

No one knows for sure how the demand picture will look. Much of that will be determined by the trajectory of the pandemic and the willingness of people to return to pre-crisis activities like road trips, cruises and flights.
Trainer, the New Constructs CEO, is betting they will.
“We’re social creatures. We’re going to want to get back to normal,” he said. “There’s a significant amount of the population that will party like it’s 1999. They’re sitting at home bored out of their minds.”

30 thoughts on “This is probably the way to bet”

  1. All right for some. As a codger I’ll be frozen out of stuff for a long time, if not by government fiat then by insurance companies refusing cover if I buck the ‘guidance’.

  2. @Tractor Gent

    So long as your in the EHIC area you’re covered by that for at least until the end of 2020 and we do have recipricol arrangements with some countries outside of that.

    Other than that I’ve been musing on all the places in the UK I’ve never gotten around to visiting that I really ought to.

    If anything, this crisis has made me more determined to travel once it’s over.

    Fuck the environment. I’ve not had any ‘thank you’ cards from polar bears for the reduced CO2 levels lately.

  3. Judging by the amount of traffic creeping back up this week (though still not at normal levels) it’s already happening. People are starting to weary of lockdown – I predict the first pub/restaurant to open up will be swamped with bookings.

  4. Bloke in North Dorset

    I read a comment that the partying in the Roaring 20s was in part a reaction to the Spanish flu as much as the end of the war. There was no such decade of partying after WW2 so there may be something in it.

  5. In my garden over some houses I could hear a large group of teenagers congregating and revving their mopeds/motorbikes/quad bikes in the woodland park. It was such a nice weather to organise my herb garden and have a cold beer. Food and supermarket -wise I should be OK, it is the timber merchants and B&Q I need to visit this time of the year in order to get my projects running. Also, my garden waste bin needs emptying.

  6. Off topic but good to see Spud whining about a potential financial crisis among pointless universities offering meaningless degrees.

    Anyone would think he has a vested interest.

  7. @ Julia M
    +1
    A lot more traffic noise (and more visible when I was in sight of major roads) when I went out on my walk this morning, reminding me that I noticed another tick-up on the “all motor vehicles” line of the travel chart in the Downing Street briefing yesterday.
    Before the lockdown started government advisor said that it was delayed to try to cover peak infection period because people wouldn’t stick to it for long and that seems to be happening/starting to happen.

  8. Sounds like middle-class bubble thinking going on there. Sure, the professional/managerial lot won’t have been much financially effected. You try talking to some non-parasites who’s income stream has dried up. And a lot of their income is derived from people like themselves.

  9. Bloke in North Dorset

    Julia,

    One reason might be that when they clarified travelling lots of people realised that you can travel to work even if you’re not a key worker and can’t work at home. I pointed this out to a builder I use and he’s now started a job I had outstanding. I also had the outside of my conservatory cleaned last week.

    Its also why Khan all but shutting down the Tube and then complaining that its being used by non-key workers is disingenuous, at best. He should be tried for maladministration for risking public health.

  10. @BiS, spot on..

    IMHO the salaries of all, repeat all, public employees should start to be reduced in line with the fall in GDP. At present they can pontificate and prevaricate to their heart’s content secure in the knowledge that they won’t suffer the penury that millions of “ordinary” workers will. Time they started to share the pain, might helpt to concentrate their minds a little. After all, “we’re all in it together” (/sarc)..

  11. Already going out as I see fit–problem is nowhere open to go other than food shops. Going –soon- to a local beauty spot–a little blockade running against Plod. Not seen many of the monkey suits around. Doubtless they will be about.

  12. @Ecks
    I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the lockdown has been imposed by a political class who’s average age is well into the high risk groups. And advocated by an administrative & media class who get their fat wedge, whatever.

  13. Bloke in North Dorset

    Ecks,

    You’re allowed to drive to somewhere to get your exercise. The guidelines say the exercise should last longer than the drive. We’re seeing a few people round here.

  14. “Stone walls do not a prison make . . . .”

    It is a Lefty lockdown – there are no actual locks.

    Reanimation of the economy will be cautious. Businesses will have to assess demand; people will assess the danger to them of work or going out, balanced with their risk of starvation.

    May I suggest we let women go first? It’s only fair.

  15. BiS.

    Anyone self-employed knows that their income is not anything like hourly rate x working week. A week or two of work lost due to sickness, bad weather, machine breakdown is a hazard to risk or be prepared for. But there is a point where, no matter how much business is still around, working to catch up will never replace the lost income.
    Cancel the lockdown now, as suddenly and completely as it was imposed, and most things might just bounce back. I don’t there will be a recovery if this goes on to May, nor a phased release

  16. I don’t how things are in the UK, but with my circle of acquaintances, here, I’ve so far put out about 4000€ in help, trying to dig people out of the shit. I’ve currently got a girl the other end of the country is pretty well living on the street. Had to find somewhere to charge her fone & grep wifi to whatsapp me. I’m now working on how to get a couple of hundred to her, when her bank account is already blocked & the postal system takes a week and she’s got no address anyway.

  17. As soon as the pubs and restaurants open I’m off to the Crown to suck Tina’s pork ribs and then the next day to the Black ‘Orse for the pork belly. And the shops. Shops I haven’t been interested in for years. And then there’s holidays, when that restarts.

  18. If you want a walk in the countryside, just wear a yellow hi-vis jacket and carry some tools. Plod will assume you’re a forestry worker or council rubbish picker, and will leave you alone.

    It’s amazing how invisible you become when you don a hi-vis outfit.

  19. The recovery will depend on what Mr Coronavirus does. As people cautiously resume, if NOTHING HAPPENS, recovery could be quite quick.

    I’m comforted by this:

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/nearly-all-ny-coronavirus-patients-suffered-underlying-health-issue-study-finds

    Although 71 YO, I have no known other conditions.

    But that’s no guarantee they won’t find some should I be put in ICU. The urge to find comorbidities seems as zealous as the urge to blame every death on coronavirus.

  20. Our local chippy is re-opening with a click & collect service. B&Q stores are starting to re-open. I don’t know if there has been any change in the government’s guidelines or whether these businesses are trying it on to see what happens.

  21. Bloke in North Dorset

    Baron Jackfield

    IMHO the salaries of all, repeat all, public employees should start to be reduced in line with the fall in GDP. At present they can pontificate and prevaricate to their heart’s content secure in the knowledge that they won’t suffer the penury that millions of “ordinary” workers will. Time they started to share the pain, might helpt to concentrate their minds a little. After all, “we’re all in it together” (/sarc)..

    For the avoidance of doubt I assume you include the BBC in the list of public workers? If not please add them. Everyone else is taking a hit, why should keep paying the full licence fee as well. (Why should we be paying at all is a separate question)

  22. We used our cruise cancellation credit to rebook next year, apparently a lot of people are taking the extra 25% on offer if you do this rather than getting their money back.
    Good news for the cruise companies that they won’t have to pay out now, but bad news that next years revenue is going to be low even if the ships are busy. Overall the later cash flow hit is the better as they can offer upgrades and extras and on ship sales will make up part of the difference.

  23. Feel we are getting to the point where there will be less to re-open and summer tourist season is pretty much cancelled for this year either way. Canada announced extra funding for all the students that work summer/tourist jobs and aren’t going to be in work this year and for many small tourist business it will be the equivalent of most of their revenue not just a few months.
    Can’t see any cruise ships being allowed back this season and that’s estimated at a $1m per ship gain to the economy and at least 4 to 6 ships a week for 4 to 5 months, lot of money to lose.

  24. Bloke in North Dorset

    bis,

    Sounds like middle-class bubble thinking going on there. Sure, the professional/managerial lot won’t have been much financially effected. You try talking to some non-parasites who’s income stream has dried up. And a lot of their income is derived from people like themselves.

    As somebody said, there’s going to have to be a bit of a reckoning at the end of this. Those who benefited from globalisation are working from home with little financial loss at the expense of those who didn’t benefit, or may have even lost, from globalisation and are having to work at risk to their own health eg shop staff, delivery drivers binmen etc.

  25. Bloke in North Dorset

    djc,

    Anyone self-employed knows that their income is not anything like hourly rate x working week. A week or two of work lost due to sickness, bad weather, machine breakdown is a hazard to risk or be prepared for. But there is a point where, no matter how much business is still around, working to catch up will never replace the lost income.
    Cancel the lockdown now, as suddenly and completely as it was imposed, and most things might just bounce back. I don’t there will be a recovery if this goes on to May, nor a phased release

    Even then there won’t be a full bounce back. Leave aside whether people will start using pubs, restaurants etc to the same extent for a lot of people and businesses it has been revenue foregone not postponed.

    I’ll only have one haircut not the 2 or 3 I would have had in this period. If the pub reopened I wouldn’t drink the pints I missed or have the number of meals we would have had. My gym has frozen memberships, they’ve pushed my renewal date in to the future so no extra revenue there. There’s many other instances like that.

    To bis’s point about helping people. I had some work booked on my boat but as the marina is in lockdown they can’t get in to do it. As I trust them and they’ve been very helpful in the past I’ve paid in full in advance to help them with cash flow. I’ve told a local fencing and garden guy he can come it to work to build a couple of flagged areas and fix some fencing and I’m paying him for all the materials + 50% labour up front and I’ll pay as soon as he’s finished.

    If anyone else in my network needs help I’d do the same thing.

  26. BiND, globalisation is here to stay.

    “revenue foregone not postponed”

    True. My hair cutter called me yesterday. She is surviving. She said her sister has been putting money into her bank account. When I finally get back to having my hair cut, she will NOT recover what I didn’t give her a few weeks ago.

    I get to play hippie; she gets charity from her sister.

  27. @Andrew C

    Portmerion (The Prisoner) is a day’s pleasant exploration, nice walk to Pet Cemetery there too

    @Jussi

    Garden waste = bonfire & baked potatoes. Or empty on Mr & Mrs Snitch’s drive

    @Andrew C

    Universities denied bailout by Sunak was front page of FT

    Maybe Sunak saw this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5I-Vs_l9Fs

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