The model, credited with forcing the Government to make a U-turn and introduce a nationwide lockdown, is a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming”, says David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco.
“In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.”…
No one at all has nice words to say about the code and yes, no commercial organisation would use, release or base a decision upon it.
But the real problem at the heart here is the assumption made. That people don’t change their behaviour in the face of changed incentives – they only change their behaviour if government tells them to. Yes, yes, economists use models to make astrologers look good but at least they don;t make that mistake – all the interesting bits in any economic forecast are about how will people change their behaviour?