Yes, yes, yes, we don’t know and all that

For this is just the one sample. And yet:

More than 10 times as many people in Germany as thought may have been infected with coronavirus, researchers have said, as Italy led swathes of Europe out of lockdown and officials said the continent’s outbreak was mostly past its peak.

Researchers from Bonn University said on Monday that their preliminary study, based on fieldwork in the town of Gangelt in Heinsberg municipality, which had one of Germany’s highest death tolls, showed the risk of infection by asymptomatic carriers.

The researchers concluded from a random sample of 919 people that about 15% of Gangelt’s population had been infected, with a fatality rate of 0.37%.

If generally true then we are talking of a bad ‘flu year. And for this we…….?

64 thoughts on “Yes, yes, yes, we don’t know and all that”

  1. Bloke in Germany

    It’s still rather more than a bad ‘flu year, but gets us closer to answering the really interesting question. Or, rather, at least asking it:

    How many deaths will there be that are not deaths brought forward very slightly, or deaths deferred by two consecutive seasons of astonishingly mild* ‘flu?

    *: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
    2018-9 report, page 51
    No excess mortality through week 4 2020: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-flu-levels-according-to-phe-statistics-2019-to-2020

  2. Bloke in Germany

    JuliaM, total infections in Germany must be around 15% on those figures, with no reason to suspect it would be different in any other western European country.

    Everyone ends up as one of:
    Dead
    Hospitalised/recovered (with sequelae)
    Treated at home/quarantined
    Symptomatic but did not seek or obtain medical care.
    Asymptomatic.

    The official figures blasted out 24/7 to keep us under lock and key are based on the first three. Numbers in those categories will be pretty accurate (cave discussions about whether you die with or of Covid, etc).

    It’s not possible to calculate the latter category without doing population-wide surveillance, which has only been done in a handful of places. Interestingly, all with similar infection rates of around 15%. And we wonder why our masters are cocking it up. Perhaps because the answer would be politically unpalatable and the spin doctors need more time to work out how to claim victory on the scorched earth of our livelihoods and lifestyles?

  3. Was recently reading a soldier’s account of life in the trenches. His main concern (as is common) was that he didn’t disgrace himself in front of his comrades. I wonder how many red faces there’ll be when this is over? “How did you behave during the pandemic, daddy … and why are we so poor?” “I told ’em straight, son, if another lad in the office came withing two metres of me I was out outa there.”

  4. BiG

    “…with no reason to suspect it would be different in any other western European country.”

    I’d say there are reasons to suspect the percentage infection rate will vary. There are numerous variables that could affect total infections…population density (average and lived), demographics, % single-person households, % dwellings in multi-occupation, % multi-generational families, number of super-spreader events, hygiene standards, kissing cultures, timing of lockdown…etc.

  5. Dead
    Hospitalised/recovered (with sequelae)
    Treated at home/quarantined
    Symptomatic but did not seek or obtain medical care.
    Asymptomatic.

    Should or could there be another one on that list BiG? Exposed but not infectable
    I don’t know enough about this, but if the virus floats down your airway but doesn’t get past any of the defences, perhaps ones strengthened by nicotine or nature, then you don’t even get infected, so no anti-bodies. If that part of the population is twice as much again then we might have some herd immunity. If it’s not possible, then the 2nd wave will roger us badly or very badly if there’s a mutation, because 15% just isn’t enough people for a herd effect.
    Side query: does anyone know of any scientist who says there won’t be a second wave – a lot of the UK public seem to think that with the right restrictions there won’t be – all the scientists seem to be saying you can do everything possible but you’re still going to have one, big or small, but you will have one.

  6. @ Theophrastus
    +1
    Also Worldometer says that Germany as a whole has taken 2.55m tests and 166k cases so less than 7% of those tested. So why does Gangelt have such a high proportion? Could it be that it was because many attended a mass event, the carnival at which Bernd B performed? And how old were they? Not many OAPs: so the death rate is unrepresentatively low.
    New York has already got well past one thousand deaths per million population

  7. ‘If generally true then we are talking of a bad ‘flu year. And for this we…….?’

    Nothing wrong with the initial actions. It was unknown; it looked scary.

    Problem is retaining draconian action after it was better understood.

    Gov of NC recently extended lockdown until May 8. With double ought zero explanation of why 8 May was any different than 6 May. It’s absolutely arbitrary.

    Five western counties in NC have virtually no CV cases. Yet lockdown applies the same to them as other counties. Ham fisted, one-size-fits-all government. That’s the problem.

  8. The Pedant-General

    We’ve had nearly 40k excess deaths vs 5 yr average since this really started to pick up w/e 20 Mar.
    The latest ONS figures (E/W only, out today), so a teeny dip, so I’m going to prognosticate that we are on the way down now.
    Let’s call it another 40k excess deaths until we get back to the normal level.

    If this is indeed all just bringing forward deaths of already vulnerable people, then we would expect to see 80k deaths/30 weeks remaining in the year (just for good measure) = around 2.3k fewer deaths per week for the rest of the year.

    This will be distinctly noticeable vs average of 10k deaths per week as normal rate through the summer.

    Right now the charts look scary but the devil is totally in the detail. How many of the excess deaths are due to the lockdown, not Covid? (People having a heart attack and not going to hospital etc)

  9. …then we are talking of a bad ‘flu year.

    The fatality rate (deaths per infections) is likely to be equivalent to a bad flu year. But this is a (mostly) new virus so there’s little to no immunity. There is no vaccine. And it looks like it’s inherently more infectious than regular flu. Result? Way more infections. Same rate still results in more deaths.

    Remember, Germany locked down, so all the figures above are for mitigated-COVID-19, not let-it-rip-COVID-19. Even with this reduced number of infections, COVID-19 is killing as many as life-goes-on-as-normal flu.

    And I still don’t see, short of a vaccine / treatment (unlikely) or the virus benignly mutating and just dying away (slightly more likely), how these infections can be avoided. The virus can’t be contained (good luck with that South Korea, Taiwan, NZ, etc) so the only sensible option is to pace the infections so the deaths and illnesses can be coped with ongoing – and you don’t destroy the nation in the process. The Swedish policy, with necessary local modifications, is the only sensible way forward. It’s the least worst solution.

  10. Not sure I buy the “deaths brought forward from the next few bad flus” as many of those who are dying do not appear to be people we’d be expecting to die any time soon.

    Actuaries looking at the data have come down very hard against the “at death’s door” theory. My original inclination was that the life-years lost would be relatively small as within each age group I assumed most deaths would be occurring only in the most clinically vulnerable but talking to an actuary about this has changed my mind, their ability to predict longevity even in people with multimorbidity is apparently very good. Have a look at https://mobile.twitter.com/covid19actuary

    There’s also this Scottish research that uses a different method to take other conditions into account.

    https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

    COVID-19 – exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

    Abstract
    Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs.
    Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count.
    Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6).
    Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

  11. MyBurningEars

    But as we know, that Scottish research excluded deaths in Care Homes – >50% in Lombardy and Bergamo – and took no account of the severity of pre-existing morbidities. As such, with it’s inate non-survivor bias, it is not very useful

  12. Bloke in Germany

    PJF,

    Indeed, 15% infection rate in a town in NRW, a state which had an early and draconian lockdown and is still largely in it. Some states (NRW, BA, MV) are more locked down than others (HE, BB, TH). In NRW I know people who have been arrested for driving a couple of miles out of their way to drop colleagues at home (both doctors returning from work!)

    In some states courts have partly overturned lockdown rules (HH) and in others there have been street protests against lockdown (BE, BW). Germany is still a feudal patchwork, even if the Chancellor is no longer quite so beholden to the Princelings as a few weeks ago.

  13. New York has already got well past one thousand deaths per million population

    The federal govt. in the US created an interesting incentive structure by awarding aid based on death count. More deaths, more federal money. New York politicians. What could go wrong?

    There’s lots of whistleblowing from the likes of care home operators and funeral directors that the books are being cooked. Significant levels? No idea.

  14. Glad to see you still around, BiG. I thought some of the “efnick” stuff the other day might have permanently pissed you off.

  15. Bloke in Germany

    PJF, I am quite shocked just how widespread and deeply embedded the racial heuristics are among the commentariat here. I thought this was mostly an intelligent bunch, and a libertarian-leaning bunch at that. All equal under the law, individuals matter, not identities, judge by content of character not colour of skin, that kind of thing. For shame.

  16. @JuliaM ‘ Has anyone yet attempted to calculate the likely percentage of these asymptomatic carriers?’

    From Diamond Princess cruise ship, and statistical sampling in US, about 50% of the infected are asymptomatic.

    On the cruise ship, 80% had not been infected. Unless a fluke, it suggests a large degree of immunity within populations.

  17. Surreptitious Evil

    But as we know, that Scottish research excluded deaths in Care Homes …

    Err, no we don’t. What we _know_ is that the daily reported Scottish figures are for hospitals only. The weekly reported NRS figures include care homes and pre-existing conditions (and the contribution of COVID versus pre-existing is determined by the certifying doctor) and neither of these impact the Wellcome research.

  18. The Meissen Bison

    Großer: All equal under the law, individuals matter, not identities, judge by content of character not colour of skin, that kind of thing.

    I sympathise but the problem is that none of these things hold any longer, do they, so it’s not entirely unexpected that people’s attitudes reflect the changes to their culture and society.

  19. On the cruise ship, 80% had not been infected. Unless a fluke, it suggests a large degree of immunity within populations.

    Not so much a fluke, I think; just that the “experiment” didn’t run long enough for the infections to run away. It was roughly two weeks between the start and lockdown measures beginning. Assuming the average incubation is five days, that’s not much turn around even with cruise ship mixing. If anything, it indicates the infection rate is high.

  20. @Recusant

    “But as we know, that Scottish research excluded deaths in Care Homes”

    I don’t think that’s quite right since care home residents would have been GP-registered and so would still show up in their multimorbidity survival modelling: I think the issue with their research is more that it doesn’t flag for severity, and it’s likely care home residents would have been at a later/more severe stage for at least one of their long-term conditions. Therefore it would have helped to apply an adjustment based on care home residential status, see their addendum at https://github.com/dmcalli2/covid19_yll_final/blob/master/Scripts/Addendum.md

  21. Bloke in Germany

    …the problem is that none of these things hold any longer, do they, …

    So you think we should go along quietly with that trend, rather than oppose it with every sinew? I didn’t realise just how woke you were!

  22. ” it suggests a large degree of immunity within populations.”

    “If anything, it indicates the infection rate is high.”

    Strangely, those two statements might both be true. It quickly affects some, but others resist infection, not necessarily through immunity, which is unlikely, but through innate immune system response, where the initial attempts of the virus are shaken off by the first line of defence, not requiring antibodies. It would have been educational to discover the vitamin D levels of the cohort.

  23. Bloke in North Dorset

    I was looking at the Our World In Data project this morning for discussion I was having elsewhere. Its worth noting that each country has its own way of reporting tests and so comparisons need to be taken as a rough guid:

    UK reports both tests performed and people tested and as we know there’s quite a difference.

    Germany reports tests performed, Belgium is unclear, Portugal samples tested, Sweden people tested, USA, which is very low, specimens tested by CDC, but they now allow private testing.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand?time=2020-03-08..&country=DEU+ITA+GBR+United%20Kingdom%2C%20tests%20performed+KOR+GRC+PRT+SGP+United%20States%2C%20specimens%20tested%20(CDC)+Singapore%2C%20swabs%20tested+SWE+NOR+BEL+DNK+FRA+ESP

    There’s another problem with selecting a town, super spreader events can distort the overall picture. Most modelling is based on constant R0, but that doesn’t look like the case here. This research from the Santa Fe Institute is quite interesting, and not very long.

    Suppose that 20 percent of cases generate one new case, 10 percent generate 2, 4 percent generate 5, and 1 percent “superspread” and generate 20 (and the remaining 65 percent infect no one). The average number of new cases is again R0= 0.8. Let’s generate 100 random outbreaks with this new scenario.

  24. The Meissen Bison

    Großer – I object vigorously to political correctness, identity politics, race-baiting and the general infantilisation of the population as a whole. People who have this stuff constantly rammed down their throats and who are enjoined to meet imported intolerance with acceptance are understandably a little fed up.

    Perhaps you’ve been away too long? We are no longer all equal under the law, identities trump everything and colour of skin can palliate defects of moral character.

  25. @BiG/PJF

    I think a lot of the impression of group think on here is worsened by the fact that a lot of us have simply given up engaging on issues where tempers runs high. Then again, I know I’m not representative of the typical ideological stance on here.

    It’s not just the racialist/European Judaeo-Christian-Enlightenment Cultural Warrior stuff either, if I see a conspiracy theory about Clinton assassinations or the really weird and straightforwardly rebuttable ones about Michelle Obama somehow secretly being trans and having her law licence revoked due to fraud, what’s the point of arguing about it, from my perspective? I’m not going to change any minds here if people aren’t interested in meaningful debate/discussion, and I’m not going to learn anything new from engaging either. I’ve got a very live-and-let-live attitude to trans issues, more complex feelings about “women-only” spaces and sports, I can understand why some of Timmy’s boarding school/rugby club style “banter” about gay people could be genuinely hurtful to some… but it’s his gaff, and I’m only likely to butt in if there’s a conversation going on that I find interesting and I’ve got something to add. I wouldn’t want my participation here to be taken as indicative I approve or agree either with what other commentators or Timmy himself says, and I’m sure Timmy wouldn’t see it that way either.

    The main draw of Timmy’s place is its broad range of commentators and unusually – especially by 2020 standards – “liberal” approach to who’s allowed to say what. When it all gets a bit groupthinky a lot of that attraction is lost. Worse still if it drives anyone away who might even have been listened to on other topics. Mind you, I’ve got a lot of believing (and to varying degrees, practising) Muslim friends who’d hate to read @BiG’s posts about Islam and wouldn’t feel welcome here if they saw them. But @BiG’s personal experiences mean he knows a heck of a lot more about the issue than I do, he’s got a right to say it and there’s no point me debating him about it, so if this is a site primarily for people with thick skins (has any long-term commentator here yet escaped an Ecsksian rant?) then so be it. Obviously some people require thicker skins than others, and if you’re a straight white cis middle-aged libertarian/liberal-conservative who likes drinking, tobacco, rugby, meat-eating and Brexit then you’re unlikely to need an armour-plated hide to post here. Plenty of sites online where that description would not be the least bit welcome and any attempt at engagement would be shut down, so I have no issue with there being a place that’s more for them. Just think it would be a shame if Timmy’s joint became a place only, or even mostly, for people who tick all those boxes.

  26. @ PJF
    The total normal deaths per million in New York in one month would only be around 800 per million so misclassification of deaths could only account for a small fraction of the total. NY Times says the death rate in NYC is *six* times the normal level. I doubt that even NY Democrats would send round a hit squad to kill 20,000 people just to boost the level of federal aid.

  27. Bloke in Germany

    “Perhaps you’ve been away too long? We are no longer all equal under the law, identities trump everything and colour of skin can palliate defects of moral character.”

    So you are saying we should join in with this headlong rush to inequality, rather than oppose it.

    Good to know where people stand.

  28. BiG/Bongo/rhoda

    Interestingly, all with similar infection rates of around 15%.

    Exposed but not infectable

    “it suggests a large degree of immunity within populations.”

    “If anything, it indicates the infection rate is high.”

    Strangely, those two statements might both be true. It quickly affects some, but others resist infection, not necessarily through immunity, which is unlikely, but through innate immune system response, where the initial attempts of the virus are shaken off by the first line of defence, not requiring antibodies.

    That was what occurred to me after I saw that Israeli study? It seemed to suggest that the virus hits some sort of boundary far more quickly than a much higher herd immunity % requirement would otherwise suggest? Redone perhaps for “clusters”, not “nations”, obviously, because the virus probably isn’t overtly political… If anywhere near the mark, at which point:

    And we wonder why our masters are cocking it up. Perhaps because the answer would be politically unpalatable and the spin doctors need more time to work out how to claim victory on the scorched earth of our livelihoods and lifestyles?

    Might start to get interesting… And soon!

  29. The Meissen Bison

    So you are saying we should join in with this headlong rush to inequality, rather than oppose it.

    You are Cathy Newman!

  30. Bloke in Germany

    When did I say anything about lobsters?

    If woke idiots go “trans black female gays trump [sic] cis white straight males” the thinking man’s response is “er, no, that’s bollix, you are not more equal than me”. Dusting off the Horst-Wessel-Lied is not only repugnant, it simply ain’t gonna work. AfD could be quite a thing here if they’d properly stamp out the Nazi elements.

  31. TMB–Ecksian rant you cheeky bastard?

    As I recall I contradicted your Brexit assessment–neither of us had the whole story but so far it has–by luck I admit– turned out slightly nearer my estimate of how it would go than yours which was HoS stalemate forever as I recall. Despite BluLabour Johnson not having the balls to use emergency powers when he should have –but instead going apeshit with them when he fucking shouldn’t.

    As for those upset by race cockrot. Most in this country don’t mind a few migrants. But millions being imported to vote for the scum of the left–which 80% of RoP do –can fuck off for that reason alone never mind anything else. Ad in the nasty habits they have brought with them that mass numbers and whining leftist racerot allow them to indulge largely unmolested while we Britons get whatever shite the state and its costumed thugs choose to hand out is also a reason to largely halt such migration for good as it is evil cultural takeover.

    We went overseas and ruled India from the top and most of what we introduced–like trains, telegraph, was benign. We did not import millions of white UK yobs aiming to put a pub on every corner and turn their country into ours. We went there and stopped widows being burned on the husbs funeral pyre and ended gangs of strangling road side religious mental cases. They have come here with a RoP legacy of treating women/kids like shite and extended it to ours.

    If that makes me a bad ‘un for wanting to see that stopped –too fucking bad. Small numbers of decent folk could have settled in nicely and have done so in some cases. But vast mobs brought in to serve Marxism by helping to destroy the nation–no fucking way.

  32. If woke idiots go “trans black female gays trump [sic] cis white straight males”

    Woke idiots, politicians, the legal system…. It’s hardly a question of just stiffening the upper lip and brushing this shit off.

  33. One of your better rants, Mr Ecks.

    Mr in Germany, is ‘racial heuristics’ your way of saying I shouldn’t notice the stabbing rate among certain of London’s diverse enrichers? Or that chaps named ‘Goldblum’ tend not to be among their number?

    Plus, tbf, although it’s not a race thing exactly, you have indeed been known to fire indiscriminate volleys in the direction of Mohammedan vibrancy…

  34. TMB–Yes I apologise–MBE is the fault. And my sin was always wrath and the wanting of swift justice–too quick it seems in this case. Again–sorry.

  35. The Meissen Bison

    Ecks – That’s fine. From memory, our only open disagreement here concerned the attractiveness or otherwise of Captain Berthaud in Spiral and I still think she’s alluring in a slightly used sort of way.

    M’Lud, I think it may be more a question of getting the shankers to learn the Horst Wessel song.

  36. Bloke in Germany

    M’Lud,

    There’s an important difference. You get to choose your religion. You don’t get to choose your biometrics. Religions are sets of truth claims, and lists of how one should run one’s life.*

    Philosophical positions that you choose, you can reasonably be expected to defend and explain. No one owes anyone an explanation as to why they are male, brown, balding, or fat, or all four. As a lawyer, I’m certain you can appreciate the distinction between things you should be able to be held account for, and those not.

    Those niceties tend to get put to one side when the Ecksian thugs are going around getting rid of the wogs. They didn’t in the past, and won’t in the future, stop to check whether you are the right type of wog, you are just a wog and off with you. When you come from a background that’s gotten itself thrown out of a different continent at each generation, you tend to be a bit sensitive to that.

    *: If I have a bigger problem with Islam than Judaism it’s because parts of Islam still see the world in a head-chopping way, whereas Jews tend to have lengthy discussions about what type of light switches they can use on Saturday. It’s introspectivity. Even Christianity, which is only a few centuries ahead of Islam in the head-chopping stakes, is no longer projecting itself on the entire world. The foundational texts of both are at least as violent as that of Islam.

  37. Bloke in Germany

    Put a slightly different way, Judaism, and most of Christianity*, have accepted that their set of instructions on how to run their life tells them how they should run their life, and does not tell them how they should run my life.

    That view is not yet as widespread in Islam as it should be, though it is gaining traction rapidly. Why do you think the extreme elements are making themselves so forcefully heard? It’s not because their world is thriving, it’s because their world is dying.

    *: Excepting the German trade unions of course.

  38. Five western counties in NC have virtually no CV cases. Yet lockdown applies the same to them as other counties. Ham fisted, one-size-fits-all government. That’s the problem.

    If your next-door county were removed from lockdown, Gamecock, there’d be a very strong temptation for you and your neighbours to head over to enjoy their facilities. At least in the US, you can vary things by state. Here in the UK we’re all being punished for the sins of London (which are manifold).

  39. Blimey, Mr in G.

    I’m slightly insulted you think I need to be told of the distinction between race and culture (not least because I alluded to it, above), and marginally more so that you should resort to an obvious rhetorical device – me, as a lawyer, and how I am to agree, since I am a lawyer… Etc.

    I think I hoped for a little less condescension. But anyway, it’s the interwebs, stuff gets written in a hurry.

    My real points are these.

    First, I think you defame Mr Ecks. He can be a bit of an Internet boot-boy, but that’s as far as it goes. It’s swagger, anger, frustration and a clarion call. But he’s a pussycat who longs for a good rub of his chops, not a Streicher lusting for machine guns and ditches.

    As it were, it’s better to take him seriously, but not literally.

    Second, you haven’t dealt with the heuristics point… except, have you?

    Do you say that if I am genetically predisposed to violence/dishonesty, I should at least to some extent be absolved of this?

    I mean, I can see some force to that argument.

    I just don’t see why we’d invite here millions of That Ilk.

  40. BiG
    Twas I that suggested, tongue in cheek, that perhaps the BAMEs should be confined to their homes for their own safety – and that this would indirectly have some other benefits such as a lower crime rate. Obviously, it would be unfair to the many BAME’s who are law-abiding citizens, like the Chinese hospital consultant who lives next door to me, but it wasn’t a serious suggestion (though the benefits would be real enough). Interestingly, people who would never countenance restricting BAME liberty in this way are often willing to say that the over-70s, even the over-60s, should be deprived of their liberty – to save the NHS during this pandemic…

  41. “The foundational texts of both are at least as violent as that of Islam.”

    That’s not true. The Koran is permeated with calls to violence against infidels and apostates. The OT and the NT are not.

  42. Bloke in Germany

    M’Lud, heuristics is going from this:

    “..notic[ing] the stabbing rate among certain of London’s diverse enrichers…”

    to this:

    “…invite here millions of That Ilk…”

    Without stopping to realise that stabbing is a small minority pursuit even among That Ilk. It’s system 1 thinking when system 2 is called for.

  43. “ Do you say that if I am genetically predisposed to violence/dishonesty, I should at least to some extent be absolved of this?”

    In Canada the sentencing guidelines state that for First Nations culprits the judge has to take into account the impact of residential schools and other injustices visited upon the First Nations and can reduce the sentence accordingly

  44. Imagine being brought up with Muslim parents living in a majority Muslim country, and at some point in your early 20s you wonder if the Koran isn’t the literal and perfect word of God and isn’t a total solution for how you should live your life on earth.
    I mean you could still think Mohammed was a charismatic and gifted leader, but you’re still going to be toast if you express your views.
    If there’s one thing massively bigger than non-Muslims fears of Muslims, it’s Muslims fear of Muslims. Imv of course.

  45. Mr B, I’m embarrassed to admit that you’re going to have to explain ‘shankers’ to me.

    Mr in G, is it? Is that what you meant, initially?

    Of course, I don’t know for sure what you meant.

    But I took your reference to ‘heuristics’ to be another way of saying ‘prejudice’. That is, ‘prejudging’, the value of which, in my view, stems from experience, prevents painful relearning of painful experiences, and reflects adult experience. Let us by all means keep open minds. But my prejudgment of a bunch of Jewish chaps standing around in a town centre at night will, all other bits being equal, not be the same as my ditto of Somali chaps.

    So, I can appreciate not all Somalian chaps carry machetes, and some Jewish chaps may do so. Nothing sophisticated in that.

    But I fail to see what is factually or morally wrong, or even mildly distasteful to those of commonplace sensibilities, in disdaining the importation of those more predisposed to machete-wielding?

    In short, I don’t understand your point…

  46. @BiG “If woke idiots go “trans black female gays trump [sic] cis white straight males” the thinking man’s response is “er, no, that’s bollix, you are not more equal than me”.”

    Doesn’t cut much ice in country like the UK where every State employee is busting a gut to put white men at the bottom of every pile.

    Case in point:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/two-british-men-arrested-posting-pubs-closed-borders-open-stickers

    Pointing out the hypocrisy of foreigners flying in from CV hotspots while the rest of the UK is banged up in their own houses gets you arrested in today UK. There isn’t any equality before the law equality, there’s one side with its boot on the other’s neck. Saying ‘I say old chap would you mind taking your size 9 off my throat, there’s a good chap?’ isn’t going to make much difference. The UK is a place where you can be openly racially insulted and demeaned, but only if you’re white.

    Sorry, we tried the equality thing, and the above is where its got us.

  47. Which leads to a couple of thoughts, Jim.

    1) the 15,000 who are said to arrive here every day. Where do they *go*? Are they all oligarchs and kleptocrats who can slink from Heathrow to lock down in a short journey?

    2) what of our existing illegals? Presumably, even if they can claim some taxpayer largesse to prevent their corpses piling up in the streets, this must, shirley, mean they bring themselves to the attention of the authorities which otherwise insist on ignorance of their existence.

  48. “the 15,000 who are said to arrive here every day. Where do they *go*? Are they all oligarchs and kleptocrats who can slink from Heathrow to lock down in a short journey?”

    We all know where they go, they go to the areas of town where the police don’t dare tell people hanging around on street corners to get back to their lockdown abodes. The police prefer to harass middle class white people keeping themselves to themselves in urban parks or the Peak district. They aren’t likely to start a riot or shank you, so they can safely be given a lockdown penalty notice. Asian MPs attending mass funerals, walk on by whistling, nothing to see here!

  49. “what of our existing illegals? Presumably, even if they can claim some taxpayer largesse to prevent their corpses piling up in the streets, this must, shirley, mean they bring themselves to the attention of the authorities which otherwise insist on ignorance of their existence.”

    I think most of the authorities go out of their way to never ever ask the immigration status of people who cross its thresholds. No council employee is even going to shop an illegal to the Immigration Office. It would be against their woke principles. Indeed I suspect vast swathes of State employees are actively working to hide known illegals from those who are tasked with their discovery and removal. Most only get discovered when they commit some crime, then its a bit hard to let them walk. But all the other areas where the State interacts with individuals (ie benefits, housing, medical provision, education, social services etc etc) will actively encourage illegals to use their services, and turn a blind eye to their obvious lack of official status. Its the consequence of allowing the Left to monopolise State employ, they apply the law (or not) to further their political views.

  50. Biggie–The majority may not be actual rapers or stabbers–but consistently voting for leftist scum–with 150 million proven murders on their leger–because they promise you stuff–is every bit as evil–maybe ultimately more evil– an action. The maj of migrants do exactly that–which is why the left even bothers with them. It isn’t the sanctimonious bullshit that comes out of socialist gob.

    Also Christanity is NOT as violent as the RoP. Yes it is violent in that a it states that unless you are a paid up member of God’s gang he will set your arse on fire regardless of whatever good you might have done in life–because he loves and made us in his image but we are all scum. A good set of ideas for a God supposedly the Supreme Being of Love, Peace and Reason. But He leaves our situation up to us. He pesters his followers to go out and pester us and God knows they have–but the choice is ours. Not so the RoP unless you regard death or the RoP as a choice .

    As for “Ecksian thugs” –even a German -fried fool like you should be beyond that chumpery. While my temper and desire to see evildoers get fists in their faces overwhelms my better judgement quite often I have enough provenance on this blog for all to know I am no advocate of ANY form of socialism. I have fallen back slightly from my orig position of extreme Liberty and individualism because I see clearly that atomised individuals can’t stand against tribalists. I can’t call anyone to come and help me duke it out with the Bluebottles. But the RoP CAN. Which is why Plod stays well clear.

    We frankly have enough imports and apart from a very small number it is time last orders was called for migration save perhaps in the case of marrying a UK native.We also need the “no votes for ANY migrant or offspring for 100 years” rule. Back-dated to 1/1/1997. That will get the left to lose interest in migrants double quick.

    As for the precious NHS–it resembles the UN because the useless bastards can no more train a UK workforce than they can run a health service. The UK medical establishment managed to run a UK-based show up until NHS soviet-style bungling hove into view.

    Lastly it seems to me that MBE post was clearly an attempt to smuggle Marxist speech codes up Tim’s back passage so to speak. To establish a distinction between a group of enlightened –ie marx-influenced– clever chappies who are “non-racist” and a cut above these oiks who don’t like girls of their race being raped and their society being turned into a corrupt 3rd world Tower Hamlets type-shithole.

  51. Edward Lud:
    As it were, it’s better to take him seriously, but not literally.

    Mr Ecks:
    Lastly it seems to me that MBE post was clearly an attempt to smuggle Marxist speech codes…

    Nah, m’Lud. I shall stick to taking him neither literally nor seriously.

  52. No one owes anyone an explanation as to why they are male, brown, balding, or fat, or all four.

    So how many is it, BiG, hmmm?

  53. BiG

    “Without stopping to realise that stabbing is a small minority pursuit even among That Ilk.”

    But That Ilk inevitably includes stabbers – not to mention welfare parasites, Labour voters and race hustlers alongside a few worthy and highly qualified people.

  54. PJF-What is wrong with the concept?

    Seemed to me that MBE he was pitching that a Tim’s site has gone down because certain realities–such as commentators not liking imported rapists and proposing to no longer put up with same–are “racist” attitudes. WTF is that if not prime SJW agenda? The “enlightened/superior ” SJW attitude suffused his piece. It was full of “I’m so much clever and more moral than you and look at all the thickos who think Obama’s wife is a man (ie nobody-the concept serves to mock leftist scum-) etc”.

    Obviously “there aren’t enough leftist pricks infesting society so they must have a presence here” is not an attitude I care for. Tin runs a free house and MBE is free to post here and keep saying what he wants to. But I’ll still be here to puncture his “cut above” mentality. He isn’t.

  55. Some people are genetically predisposed to accumulating fat, others are not but are fat nonetheless because they are lazy and/or idle and/or greedy and lack self-discipline. The latter group may not owe an explanation when they overlap onto your seat on the bus/train/plane but they do owe an apology.

  56. @Ecksy

    It’s not about speech codes, Timmy’s gaff and all that, more cause and effect. When’s the last time you saw @Josephine? Interesting poster, but got increasingly uncomfortable with the way trans people get talked about. To be trans and post here, even about non-trans issues (as @Josephine tended to do), requires very thick skin. Similarly, even if someone’s political views are classically liberal, this isn’t the most comfortable of venues for an observant Muslim or a member of an ethnic minority or a professed feminist or a Lib Dem member.

    The echo-chamber effect makes this joint feel rather duller (to me at least) than it did in the 2000s when I started reading it and there was a greater range of voices and experiences represented in the comments. I view that as an undesirable effect but I’m not proposing any speech rules, it’s not my place to do so nor would they suit the spirit of the site. The point I was making to @BiG, who often finds himself in a lone fight re comments “of that ilk”, is that he’s not alone in disagreeing with them – both in terms of moral content and political effectiveness – but for a lot of those who disagree there doesn’t seem much point trying to engage with a pile-on, which makes the echo-chamber seem more one-sided than it is.

  57. MBE

    Yes, there’s an echo chamber here. But, on the other hand, I can go to the Guardian or BBC echo chamber if I want to hear the views of “an observant Muslim or a member of an ethnic minority or a professed feminist or a Lib Dem member.”

  58. BiG

    In case you think I’m racially prejudiced, I’d just say that I believe the wogs begin at Calais.

  59. All of those you mention in the first paragraph aren’t stopped from posting on here. But if you want controlled speech go to Samizdata like NiV.

    But talk about thick or thin -skinned is pure SJW tripe. Like getting into the UFC ring and then squealing that people are punching you. As for Josephine or whatever–have said countless times that blokes can dress up as whatever they like–their business. But come on here with demands I –or anyone–be obliged to piss on reality and accept Marxist tyranny–ie be forced to say that men can become women as they feel like it–the sound you hear is the cage door closing behind you.

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