Now this is an odd result

It had the same lax restrictions as the capital of Sweden: schools remained open, residents carried on drinking in bars and cafes, and the doors of hairdressers and gyms were open throughout coronavirus.

But the Swedish coastal city of Malmö has shown a remarkably different result to Stockholm, with few fatalities and a remarkably low death rate.

Now some experts are questioning if the Malmo model proves that Sweden’s controversial move to avoid a lockdown was right all along.

Sweden has faced mounting criticism over its death rate. But Skane, the region around Malmo, had by last week registered just 17 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants due to coronavirus, slightly fewer than the 19 per 100,000 seen in the Capital Region of Denmark across the Oresund straits, even though Denmark went into heavy lockdown for two months from mid-March….

The thing being that the immigrant population of Malmo is rather large. And immigrants – perhaps because of cultural practices, genetic issues, perhaps just because of poverty and thus housing etc issues – doing worse than indigenes in most European countries.

27 thoughts on “Now this is an odd result”

  1. Bloke in North Dorset

    Everything I’ve read indicates that the disease disproportionately affects the poor and also blacks, even when controlled for poverty, and is city based. In that case you’d expect more cases.

    Its more likely to be that immigrants are younger and fitter.

    David Speigelhalter has just blogged about the age related nature of the disease and its quite remarkable how safe young people are: https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49

  2. The explanation is here:

    “Part of the reason for that comes down to the different dates for the two cities’ spring ‘sports holiday’ in late February and early March, when around one million people, a tenth of Sweden’s population, travelled abroad.

    While Stockholmers travelled to the ski resorts of Italy and Austria, London and elsewhere in the week of peak transmission between February 24th and March 1st, Malmoites took their holiday a crucial week earlier and were also less likely to take international trips.”

  3. The existing death figures are largely a pack of lies worldwide.

    The actual number of healthy people of any age taken to death by this POS CCPvirus alone will turn out to be minute.

    Of course now the same Govt liars (who already exist to lie) now have the biggest reason in decades to lie even more.

    To try and con the mugs that we have not been ruined by their hysteria and drowned in an ocean of lying media bullshit.

  4. So Much For Subtlety

    Third World shit holes are, to quote the President, Third World shit holes. It is not that they do some things poorly, they do everything poorly.

    In this case I would suggest poor personal hygiene is socially unacceptable as an answer but a likely cause. The disease seems to hit people who are generally disordered in their personal lives.

  5. allthegoodnamesaretaken

    What are you on about? “In this case I would suggest poor personal hygiene is socially unacceptable as an answer but a likely cause. The disease seems to hit people who are generally disordered in their personal lives.”

    But the Swedish coastal city of Malmö has shown a remarkably different result to Stockholm, with few fatalities and a remarkably low death rate.

  6. So Much For Subtlety

    allthegoodnamesaretaken June 14, 2020 at 7:34 am – “What are you on about?”

    That you may find shitting on your hands does not result in good health outcomes. This disease is likely to be spread by a variety of things – but hand washing seems to be high on the list of good preventatives.

    “But the Swedish coastal city of Malmö has shown a remarkably different result to Stockholm, with few fatalities and a remarkably low death rate.”

    That is Beirut-on-the-Arctic has a lot of Coco-chan. But the mostly Swedish city of Stockholm does not.

    This is a disease that hits right down Max Weber’s Protestant Capitalism line. Repressed northerners don’t get it much. Expressive Latin Catholics do. The Third World a whole lot more.

  7. SMFS–The point being made is the anomaly –that Shitholestan has supposedly low figs. But when ALL figs are mostly lies I suspect that to be the cause.

    Perhaps Malmo represents an honest count of CCP deaths. And their figs are in fact far HIGHER than an honest count of CCP deaths in Swedish Sweden would actually reveal. If those SS figs (so to speak) were not being fiddled by deceitful doom-mongers.

  8. SMFS I have a lot of sympathy with that idea but Portugal seems to have got a low death toll whilst the U.K. seems to have high numbers. I suspect the truth is going to be multi-faceted.

  9. So Much For Subtlety

    Oh my God. You’re right. I did not read carefully enough. Who would have thought I would be led astray by prejudice and deep rooted assumptions? After all, they have served me so well these last few decades.

    In that case, the numbers are probably wrong. The Swedish hospitals probably have not collected all the dead. I bet the Swedish Army ran out of enough Armoured Personnel Carriers to get the medics into Malmo.

    That or it is insurance fraud.

  10. While all of us like to find people to blame I expect a lot of the (especially intra-country) variance to be just bad/good luck.

    You have a similar dynamic in e.g. Italy where higher income and more naturally distanced Milan is harder hit than the region around Naples. Anyone who claims this is because the regional authorities in Naples did a better job than those in Milan are seriously deluded.

  11. Is there a difference in uptake of seasonal flu vaccine? The vaccinated being prone to a worse bout of covid as documented by studies in US army.

  12. It will be interesting to see the virulence of the BLM protests mapped on the severity of lock down regimes.

  13. It seems to me that the number of elderly/infirm, the density of population, the degree of connection to areas with an outbreak, the state of the healthcare system, the season etc. have a lot more influence on the course of this disease than any government policy.
    Another factor is the strength of the incentive for deaths to be attributed to this disease. Establishing a cause of death is not usually straightforward, especially when the deceased was already at death’s door for other reasons. Allowing Covid certification from one doctor who doesn’t have to be present (UK) shows more deaths than if two doctors have to be present (Germany). Paying more for Covid diagnoses (US) also boosts the numbers.

  14. Bloke in North Dorset

    “Is there a difference in uptake of seasonal flu vaccine? The vaccinated being prone to a worse bout of covid as documented by studies in US army.”

    I thought that study had been discredited because it didn’t control for the fact that most people get the flu virus because they have other serious health problems and/or the old? There were other problems as well.

  15. There was info yesterday that the (mutated) strain(s) of this virus in the UK and eastern US are several orders of magnitude more contagious that the strains elsewhere in Europe which would explain some of the worse figures here and in NYC, although the methodologies of recording infection rates and deaths and attributing them to the virus seem to be totally incomparable apart from the fact that the numbers are utterly shit everywhere.

  16. One of the contributors to the HectorDrummond blog has crunched the numbers to look at covid deaths based upon age and the presence of pre-existing conditions compared to the actual cohort size of each age group… It looks very much like your chances of kicking the bucket “with” covid-19 is almost completely age-based, followed by the state of your general health..

    Chance of death (to the end of May)

    Age, 0-19 No pre-existing (N) 1:4.6 million (0.000021%), pre-existing (P) 1:937,000 (0.000107%).
    20-39 (N) 1:488,000 (0.000205%), (P) 1:99,000 (0.001011%).
    40-59 (N) 1:61,000 (0.001637%), (P) 1:8,300 (0.012025%).
    60-79 (N) 1:21,000 (0.004782%), (P) 1:1,200 (0.084867%).
    80+ (N) 1:6,400 (0.015626%), (P) 1:220 (0.45544%).

    So, even if you’re over 80 with pre-existing conditions, you still have a better than 1:200 chance of surviving.

    The worst of the pre-existing conditions according to the nhs are diabetes (possibly connected with obesity), dementia (old age), chronic pulmonary disease (ditto) and chronic kidney disease. Perhaps the fact that Malmo’s population contains a large number of young “refugees”none of whom are likely to have much incidence of these conditions could go some way to explaining this anomoly. Loads of them could be (probably are) infected, but they ain’t gonna die from it.

  17. @Bravefart – do you have a link? I have read suggestions that Japan, Korea etc escaped lightly because their version of the virus is less contagious and less deadly.

  18. Covid deaths are concentrated in the old and infirm.

    Perhaps Sweden just has a generally healthy population.

  19. A regional effect has been found in Netherlands too with the Northern areas (less affected) taking their mid-term holidays at different times to the Southern ones.
    May be Malmo people ramped up their hand-washing at the right time, and avoided the super spreading events which seem to have been the large indoor gatherings.
    I do think probabilities of dying from Sars-Cov-2 are difficult to judge – one person getting a viral dose of 3000 virons say is going to have a bad few days based on influenza comparisons. 100 people copping for a 30 viron dose might not notice when their immune system gets on the case. Which is why hand-washing in soap is really important. And a healthy immune system. But you can’t feed people who cop for low doses into your calculations because we don’t know how many there are. We can only assume there are fewer than there should be due to the lockdown.

  20. IMHO we are far too early into this process to figure out why different areas have had such disparate results and the data is very unreliable. I’ve been seeing articles claiming Sweden’s approach was wrong for several weeks based on poor or misunderstood data and faulty logic.

    Likewise in the U.S. the states that eased their lockdowns have been attacked using bizarre and illogical arguments. “We’ve seen a 20% increase in cases this month, lock them all down!!!” – never mind that we tested 3 times as many people.

    And, of course, the critics of Sweden never ask how many people the lockdown would have killed.

    When the dust settles, and we have time to carefully inspect the evidence (adjusting for over-counting Kung Flu deaths, etc.) we can debate which approach makes sense.

  21. I doubt if we’ll ever know “true” numbers of death by COVID19 because when very ill old people die there is an unavoidable and large degree of arbitrariness about what is given as Cause of Death.

  22. BiND: there are two studies, one within the VA ie not serving soldiers which was poorly controlled for and therefore anecdotal but the other was of current serving military, of substantial size and statistically highly significant to a particular vaccine. Prof Cahill suggests the cell culture in which the vaccine was prepared was contaminated with a corona virus which actually sensitised recipients to subsequent corona infections.

  23. the Swedish coastal city of Malmö has shown a remarkably different result to Stockholm, with few fatalities and a remarkably low death rate

    But Skane, the region around Malmo, had by last week registered just 17 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants due to coronavirus, slightly fewer than the 19 per 100,000 seen in the Capital Region of Denmark

    OK, Skane mostly agriculture outside Malmo and Lund, Ystad not like industrial Glasgow, sorry Malmo

    The thing being that the immigrant population of Malmo is rather large. And immigrants – perhaps because genetic issues – doing worse than indigenes in most European countries

    Whut? Figures don’t support your conclusion. Are you writing for Guardian, BBC?

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