In other words, the chance of any serious rate rise is as close to nothing as it is possible to get. So what is the Institute for Fiscal Studies raising the concern for unless a) it can’t follow this logic b) it does not know about it c) it’s trying to create a risk that does not exist to support austerity? I think (c) the most likely, but who knows? However looked at, they’re wrong: this is not a concern.
It’s time that people realised that interest costs are not a concern whatever the level of debt right now and it’s time that think tanks stopped saying that they are.
What the IFS actually said is that QE means the debt financing is at the bank rate, not the long term gilts rate. This means a greater exposure to any rise in interest rates.
Murph is responding “But rates won’t rise!” which isn’t the statement being made. Rather, that risk has increased if they do – which is true.