Well, yes, but…..

In the past four decades, the cost of policing in the US has tripled and is now $115bn, according to a recent analysis. That steady increase comes as crime has been consistently declining.

Well, yes, but it is necessary to work something out. Has the police budget been rising despite the crime rate falling or has the crime rate been falling because the police budget has been rising?

It’s a fairly important distinction.

37 thoughts on “Well, yes, but…..”

  1. Dennis, Pointing Out The Obvious

    It’s going to be fun watching Democrat politicians try to work their way out of this one. Jacob Frey of Minneapolis and Bill DeBlasio of New York City are already reaping the whirlwind. And if Pelosi and Schumer don’t find a solution, the idea that Democrats can retake the Senate and hold onto the House will become more and more implausible. People may say they want social justice, but in the final analysis they will vote for law and order.

    One of the most interesting aspects of the reaction to Floyd’s death is that the violence and destruction has been almost entirely Democrat on Democrat. The media is trying to spin this as being about Donald Trump, but the longer the riots and demonstrations continue, and the longer the progressive wing of the Democrat Party calls for defunding of police departments (and the military), the more obvious it becomes that none of this is about Donald Trump. Or George Floyd, for that matter.

  2. The Other Bloke in Italy

    Dennis, quite.

    Your God-Emperor has been twatting “Law and Order” daily for a while. He knows.

  3. Or is the crime rate actually falling because it is not being measured accurately given a significant proportion has moved online and is growing fast?

    And the police do no seem to pursue online crime with any vigour

  4. So Much For Subtlety

    Fox Butterfield call your office.

    I am glad to see I am back in agreement with Dennis. I am sure the media were hoping Trump would do something outrageous like use napalm. But he has been remarkably calm. He hasn’t even tweeted much.

    This remains Blue-on-Blue. The Democrats incited violence – very nicely letting all the criminals out of prison first. And they have hurt themselves. Which was fine until the looters hit Macy’s. Allowing Blacks to loot their own neighbourhoods is one thing – and you would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh at the buffoon running Chicago begging Target not to withdraw from their looted strores – but threatening the Diamond district? Well, Adam Schiff and Gerry Nadler might have something to say about that.

    In the meantime I am super-impressed by the rioters. They have managed to get Ice Cube[*] to tweet in support of the police.

    [*] Someone from a popular beat combo. Famous for more or less inventing Gangsta Rap with his friends in a band whose name no one now dares say so it is referred to as NWA. Most famous, of course, for their song, Fuck Tha’ Police, off the outstanding album Straight Outta Compton.

  5. It’s reminiscent of those articles that say “in spite of the decline in crime rates more people are being detained in prison …”

  6. I saw something recently about the people who say austerity in police spending caused a rise in crime are now saying “defunding the cops” won’t increase crime.

  7. I’m not sure you can really connect the two.

    Most of the fall in crime over the decades is down to technology.

    – Old ladies now get their pensions paid in direct to bank accounts, so less robbing old ladies for cash.
    – Cars have immobiliser alarms and audio alarms, so less people nick cars and radios
    – China produces DVD players for £40, so it’s not worth nicking and fencing them
    – Police have ANPR cameras which makes finding stolen cars a doddle, so there’s now less car theft.
    – Phones/tablets can be remotely disabled by owners so worthless if stolen.
    – CCTV everywhere providing evidence.

    We have about 1/4 of the number of crimes of the mid-1990s. And we’re reducing police numbers in the UK.

  8. I’m not sure you can really connect the two.

    Fortunately, the city of Minneapolis is going to run a social science experiment for us so we will be able to judge for ourselves.

    The cities where the 2014 BLM protests hit hardest – St Louis, Baltimore, Chicago – saw a substantial rise in murder rates after municipal authorities quietly asked the cops stay in their squad cars and have another donut.

    Perhaps the results will be better with this more formal de-policing effort. We’ll see!

  9. “In the past four decades, the cost of policing in the US has tripled”

    Is that real terms? If not, how much of that is inflation?

    Also how does it compare to public sector cost increases? How much has education spending (for example) increased over the same period?

    It wouldn’t surprise me if public sector pay (including pensions and health cover) is now three times what it was in 1980.

  10. Askance from topic, I see the morlock who defaced Churchill’s statue says he did it because Churchill was racist.

    Whilst it is pointless arguing with such people and their handlers/enablers – IanB’s, “the end is very close now” on another thread earlier today felt … worrying, for this reason – history might like to record that the vanguard of the revolution adheres to the idea that different opinions must give rise to physical destruction.

    The young man who says this believes his life matters.

    Oddly, I do not suppose I am allowed physically to destroy this yobbo, for disagreeing with him*.

    * I don’t have strong views on whether Churchill was a racist. I don’t care (I have other and better disagreements with him). I disagree with this BLM Vandal because he is a Vandal. All we need now is bucolic scenes of sheep wandering through a mothballed Whitehall.

    PS, isn’t it customary for groupuscules such as BLM to disclaim the excesses of their more lively members? Has that happened here?

  11. Bloke in North Dorset

    Dennis,

    the more obvious it becomes that none of this is about Donald Trump. Or George Floyd, for that matter.

    I said this at the start and I’ll saying it again because its getting even more obvious: The death of George Floyd is the excuse for the violence, not the reason. The rioting and looting is being carried out by professional criminals and anarchists.

    Over the past few days I’ve heard a few serious people point out that in the late ’60s there was a lot of sympathy for black rights marches, but it evaporated when the violence started and that’s what tipped the balance for Nixon.

  12. Or is the crime rate actually falling because it is not being measured accurately given a significant proportion has moved online and is growing fast? And the police do no seem to pursue online crime with any vigour

    Calling people names on Twatter, Farcebook or the rest of the SJW infested “Social Media” should never be a crime, same applies to all of this Hate Crime / Crime-think bollocks created by Cressida “Shoot the Electricians” Dick and her ilk.

    I’m of the opinion that “Defund the Police” isn’t a bad strategy for the UK either, might allow us to get back to a model of real policing (a la Peel) that actually works in the UK, not uniformed social workers who behave like frightened children.

  13. Most famous, of course, for their song, Fuck Tha’ Police, off the outstanding album Straight Outta Compton.

    Which is amusing in that Compton,CA was one of the cities which chose to defund the police and is being looked at by the City of Minneapolis in their approach to the problem.

    When you get used in the same breath as Compton,CA and Camden, NJ that is not a sign of success.

  14. @Edward Lud

    “Askance from topic, I see the morlock who defaced Churchill’s statue”,
    the morlocks worked and produced value, I tend to see modern lefties as more the eloi – they live life for aesthetics and consider not where their food comes from. “The Marie Antoinette Eloi” I dub them.

  15. Another fun fact about Compton: Mexican gangs have displaced the black gangs. The population of Compton is now majority Hispanic [from Mexico].

  16. Spending for private security is even more than government spending. Government has failed; people pay what they have to pay for protection.

  17. Re: budget trebles in 40 years – and inflation over period is what?

    Here a Mars Bar has quadrupled in price in 40 years and it’s smaller

    @Dennis
    Spot on

    We have same appeasement loons here who refuse to see most damaged are those they purport to defend

    Farage & Delers spot on. BoJo a disappointment

    Farage: Black Lives Matter Is a Dangerous, Marxist Organisation Hell-Bent on Anarchy

    <a href="https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/06/08/run-piggy-run-british-cops-chased-through-streets-blm-protest/‘Run Piggy Run’ – British Cops Chased Through Streets at BLM Protest

    Delingpole: Black Lives Matter and Antifa in London – Where Are the Grown Ups?

    “Yet the overwhelming narrative across social media today and, depressingly, across much of the mainstream media is that these ugly, sinister shows of force by the triumphant radical left are something almost charming and admirable rather than something we should all fear.

    Instead of calling out Black Lives Matter for what it is – essentially the race-baiting branch of Antifa – politicians, even government ministers are kowtowing to it”

    Boris Johnson’s [appeasement & surrender] statement on the Black Lives Matter protests and the death of George Floyd
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQEiLJ5Girg

  18. I see in London a mounted police officer took a tumble and was badly hurt.

    It’ll be a while before he’s back arresting people for their “hate” speech on social media I should think.

    A less caring person than me might say screw him and the horse he road in on.

  19. Fix:
    ‘Run Piggy Run’ – British Cops Chased Through Streets at BLM Protest

    @ZT

    Yep, brains beat brawn – Rev Simon wonderful and amusing
    – Latino gangs tell cops we got this we will sort out the rioters
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mA3OibMoA4

    Katie & Jesse nail it
    – Gutfeld on defunding the police
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8t-hMoszGR4

    Blacks murdered by blacks shows it’s not a protest, it’s excuse for robbery, murder, looting, arson
    – St Louis Police release clear footage of the black looters who murdered black business owner and ask public to ID them
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjUtJxGJ0pI

  20. wat dabney
    June 9, 2020 at 4:06 am

    Yes, it’s not like riding Peter Pan in the gymkhana is it love.

    Your humanity is shining through there. Idiot.

  21. “Here a Mars Bar has quadrupled in price in 40 years and it’s smaller.”
    When I was in short trousers a Mars bar was 6d (2.5p). In our local newsagent they’re now 80p and (as you say) half the size. So effectively now cost 64 times the price in the ‘50s.

  22. So Much For Subtlety

    Mr Womby June 9, 2020 at 9:36 am – “So effectively now cost 64 times the price in the ‘50s.”

    I keep thinking that the government manages the currency so badly that it is inevitable we will end up with some form of commodity currency like cigarettes in prison. Except no one smokes these days so that is probably out.

    It is depressing to see the Mars Bar is not a reliable store of value either. And yet we are all getting so fat. A bit of a mystery that.

    Anyway, I wonder what would serve as a good alternative currency?

  23. @SMFS
    For many years the comparative price of a Mars was a useful measure of inflation but then it just went haywire.

  24. So Much For Subtlety

    Mr Womby June 9, 2020 at 10:17 am – “For many years the comparative price of a Mars was a useful measure of inflation but then it just went haywire.”

    Stephen Jay Gould has an article on this published in one of his books. I think from memory.

    So it is a lot like a currency then. How do you have runaway inflation? Slowly at first and then very quickly.

  25. Instead of Mars bars, I usually use the science fiction book standard, because I’ve hundreds of the things around the house. At a quick guess, the Aussie dollar is worth about one hundredth of what it was when the oldest ones were printed.

    I was amused a while ago to see how the poor Zimbos were having to pay US$0.80 for a loaf of bread. I went to the bother of working it out and I pay more. But of course I’ve never felt inclined to give the Zimbos anything anyway.

  26. So Much For Subtlety

    I think used Science Fiction books have probably kept their value quite well. I certainly have browsed more than few that are selling for more *now* than they did when first published. And as I have a small problem with transsexual girls heroes saving the world, most of what I look at was published in the 70s at the latest.

    Sure, that is a face value but nothing makes you realise how piss poor our governments are at pretty much anything than seeing how much something one step from being pulped sells for.

  27. I stand second to no one in my hatred of the left but I did enjoy the “Run Piggy Run” video.

    If only decent folks would hit back against the state’s costumed thugs with equal effectiveness.

    Defunding the Po-lice is a good idea because it means we would have to defend ourselves and the return of the gun would be inevitable. Once defensive measures are in place they can be equally as effective against attempts at re-asserting themselves by Plod as against Marxist scum and ordinary crims.

    Indeed death would quickly thin out the ranks of our enemies. Dead criminals don’t come back after all.

  28. SMFS–I have a box of my old SF paperbacks from my youth in the loft. Asimov, Clarke , Heinlein and others like Poul Anderson and Robert Silverberg. I liked Harry Harrisons stuff until I found out he was a leftist. Before an awareness of politics dawned I quite liked Pohl’s “The Space Merchants”–but I now see it as the marxistic shite it is –likewise Soylent Green etc.

    The only books I re-read now is Jack Vance esp his “Demon Princes” series –the tale of a far future quest for revenge.

  29. So Much For Subtlety

    I would dump the Robert Silverberg too. I liked the Space Merchants. But by then the Social Justice Warriors were already taking over Science Fiction.

    If only people listened.

    I wonder if childhood liking for SF predicts future politics? Has The Moon is a Harsh Mistress been more influential than anything else?

  30. Silverberg is/was? an old style US Liberal rather than todays MCM crew. I don’t remember his politics being esp intrusive and he did have many enjoyable ideas. He later became involved in writing several vast semi-fantasy sagas at which point I stopped reading his stuff.

  31. Cars have immobiliser alarms and audio alarms, so less people nick cars and radios

    You’d think so, and I did too until a good mate had a new A7 nicked off his drive (plus his wife’s Volvo). The thieves broke into the house (in a leafy part of the Midlands) and took the keys from the hall table (advice from plod was that it’s best to leave them there, otherwise the scallies will just come looking for them). Apparently they’re broken for parts.

    Theft of high-end motors is a bigger problem on the continent, where you can lift a shiny Beemer from the street in Berlin and drive it to Minsk before the owner notices it’s missing. Getting hot cars out of the UK is a bigger challenge, and then when you get them abroad, the steering wheel is on the ‘wrong’ side.

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