Job creation

And yet although these companies that might fail might employ 6 million people in all apparently unemployment is not going to be more than 3 million in total, a figure which the claimant count suggests is fast being approached Even before furlough has come close to ending.

Put bluntly, this makes no sense at all. Simply extrapolating the data in the article (and I can see no reason why not: the sample is big enough in all cases for that extrapolation to be fair) and the number of jobs at risk looks to be around 6 million (16 million, times 75%, times 50%).

Apparently the thought that new businesses might arise to employ a few of them doesn’t occur to our Snippa. Which , given that the economy destroys about 3 million jobs a year, creates about 3 million jobs a year, is odd. An economics professor should know that…..

8 thoughts on “Job creation”

  1. Dennis, Bullshit Detector

    Simply extrapolating the data in the article (and I can see no reason why not: the sample is big enough in all cases for that extrapolation to be fair) and the number of jobs at risk looks to be around 6 million (16 million, times 75%, times 50%).

    Ah, the sample is “big enough” to be “fair”. I love it when Spud uses the terminology of his trade.

    Shall we add the concept of statistically valid sampling to the list of concepts Spud doesn’t understand.

  2. Most of the large companies that fail go through a process of “Administration” that separates out the bits of the business that could be viable if detached from the sinking core and sells them to a lucky gambler at a price to make it an odds-on bet for him/her. So the number unemployed after failure is not the total of those employed before failure.

    Such “Administrations” are usually carried out by accountants, so it is a strange example of Murphy’s ignorance.

  3. If there’s one thing Coronapanic has brought us it’s a surfeit of opportunities. I can see it in the town I live in. Before the lockdown we had a surfeit of bars & restaurants. I know enough about the business to know that many of them were little more than marginally profitable. Oversupply. Now a lot of the dead wood’s being cleared out of the way, now’s the time to open something new & different. Without being swamped by indifferent competition.

  4. Let’s sack all the ‘on strike’ teaching staff and and employ sensible people who’ve lost their jobs

    Teachers unions release demands for re-opening schools: De-fund police, close charter schools…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mM-tve-wQM
    When those are the people who educating our children, you can see the results in Portland, Seattle, New York, Chicago, London Etc Etc ..
    Get rid of City schools they don’t even teach anything it’s a waste of taxpayers dollars private schools, charter schools only

  5. Our fave columnist, Timmy Elsewhere, has written

    “If you pay people to be inactive, there will be more inactivity.” Thus we should, if people need to be paid at all, pay them for being active instead.

    This appears to be at odds with TE’s advocacy of the Useless Bone Idle allowance (UBI)?

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