Not entirely so, no.

Unemployment claims in the US have risen for the first time in nearly four months in the clearest sign yet that the new surge in coronavirus cases is stalling America’s economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased to 1.42 million for the week to July 18 from 1.31 million the week before,

On the other hand:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 1,370,947 in the week ending July 18, a decrease of 141,816 (or -9.4 percent) from the previous week.

The difference is with – for the first numbers – or without seasonal adjustment. Which to use is a matter of personal taste but both are entirely correct…..

11 thoughts on “Not entirely so, no.”

  1. So Much For Subtlety

    Not entirely correct when one is chosen to mislead. In the same way that the media no longer reports Covid-19 deaths. Just new infections. The deaths are way down.

    But Orange Man Bad! They need unemployment to rise. They need millions to die. Otherwise Trump might win. And indeed Politico was bemoaning the possibility of a vaccine before November.

    Ghouls and vultures.

  2. There is no surge in coronavirus ‘cases’, there is an increase in positive tests which accompanies an increase in testing.

    The number of ‘cases’ ie infected people requiring medical intervention is not surging.

    Positive test:

    High False positives – not ‘cases’
    Infection without disease aka asymptomatic – not ‘cases’
    Infection with mild symptoms – not ‘cases’
    Presence of RNA – does not confirm presence of active virus – not ‘cases’
    Presence of antibodies from prior exposure – not ‘cases’

    This is explained enough times in enough places by enough specialists; it is not difficult to grasp except if you are a) an arse-covering politician, b) the media, c) Anti-Trumper.

    But… increased unemployment is politically advantageous in the ongoing Orangemanbad process.

  3. I have tried repeatedly online to find someone who can explain to me how you would know a test result to be a false positive. No luck so far.

  4. I see that you are elsewhere arguing that the low birthrate is due to much reduced immigration …seems a but ‘Just So’ to me and in any case if we are not under attack by swarms of swarthy tradesmen then why are we paying for Brexit?
    My guess is that changes to the benefits system are more to the point but you are surely wrong to dismiss the position of the millennial parent. While the right have endlessly grovelled their septuagenarian core voters they have failed to balance the generational injustice of the property market.
    ‘Generation rent’ was a bit of a student whinge ten years ago, but it is not now, with many people who wish to start families in insecure accommodation which just doesn’t work for the next stage in life.

  5. Bloke in North Dorset

    “ There is no surge in coronavirus ‘cases’, there is an increase in positive tests which accompanies an increase in testing.”

    It’s not just increased testing but targeted increased testing. Once the find a case tracking and tracing means a higher probability of finding positive cases.

    The only figure we should use to decide if if cases are rising or falling is random sampling of the type carried out by the ONS.

  6. ‘Unemployment claims in the US have risen for the first time in nearly four months’

    Government pays people more for not working than working. Duh.

    ‘in the clearest sign yet that the new surge in coronavirus cases is stalling America’s economic recovery’

    Wild speculation. Business is generally being restrained by government. New cases is being used by some governments to justify restraining business. The problem, as usual, is government.

  7. dearie me
    1. Wait and see.
    This does result in all asymptomatic cases being lumped in with false positives, implying that the tests are a bit…

  8. Just another example of the US media interpreting data to reflect as badly as possible on the Trump administration pre-election.

    A similar instance concerns today’s headline reports of a poll showing Biden leading by double figures in Florida, a vital swing state. A quick review of the methodology used by Quinnipiac University shows a sample consisting of 28% registered Republicans, 34% registered Democrats, 33% Independents and, disappointingly for those of us who like these things to add up to 100, 6% “others”.

  9. “False positives, increased testing, etc..”

    The only thing that might persuade me I was wrong on all of this is if deaths started to very materially increase, and provably NOT due to the state / NHS simply killing more people through incompetence or poor policy.

  10. Any idea what Newmonia’s wittering on about? It doesn’t seem to relate to this thread or any recent other. Spontaneous emission?

  11. BiS–I also couldn’t even be bothered to fisk his meaningless drivel. So I’ll just say–Face–FOUCSMFPOS.

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