Some have been saying this for a long time

The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a “jaw-dropping” impact on societies, say researchers.

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

Only about 30 years late to the party.

35 thoughts on “Some have been saying this for a long time”

  1. Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.

    Women don’t want to do the one literally vital thing that only they can do, but they do want the traditional respect and privileges accorded their sex, along with lots of new ones, while simultaneously directly competing with men for resources.

    It’s not gonna end well for women, is it? I wonder if Ms Atwood told us more than she meant to.

    In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story.

    “Here’s why this asteroid is good news, lads…” explained the Triceratops

  2. “I think it’s incredibly hard to think this through and recognise how big a thing this is; it’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganise societies.”

    But do we really need to do much? This is a slow, gradual effect. Every decade has a population falling slightly, so slightly fewer primary schools, slightly fewer midwives. It’s slow enough that you can deal with it through natural wastage.

    “Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?”

    OK, but it’s not going to be a gazillion elderly because over the century, the elderly will also decline with the birth rate. And yeah, we’ll probably deal with it with later retirement ages. It’s not like we’re digging coal and getting blacklung when we’re 60. I know people still working in their early 70s.

  3. @Steve: “Women don’t want to do the one literally vital thing that only they can do…”

    *gasps* Next, you’ll be telling us only men can get testicular cancer or something!

  4. This is a slow, gradual effect. Every decade has a population falling slightly, so slightly fewer primary schools, slightly fewer midwives. It’s slow enough that you can deal with it through natural wastage.

    No, it’s a very rapid effect. Because at the same time birth rates have fallen below survival levels, immigration has increased above replacement levels.

    over the century, the elderly will also decline with the birth rate.

    The way we finance the welfare state is similar to a Ponzi scheme. An increase in the percentage of oldsters puts disproportionate strain on the falling percentage of the population who are economically active. Pushing out the retirement age is inevitable but has diminishing returns.

  5. Darwin would tell us that at some point societies where women are not equal and have higher birthrates / population (and much less PC attitudes to war / violence / domination / control) will overwhelm societies where women are freer to choose. Wokeistan is going to get hammered by Cousinfuckistan. Unfortunately for women everywhere I suspect they may now be experiencing a high water mark for their life experience. The future may be a lot less pleasant for them in societies where they aren’t currently banging out the sprogs.

  6. Steve,

    “Women don’t want to do the one literally vital thing that only they can do, but they do want the traditional respect and privileges accorded their sex, along with lots of new ones, while simultaneously directly competing with men for resources.”

    There’s still plenty that do. The world isn’t going to end because of the female software developers at Google with their pronouns, who think they can freeze their eggs and snare some guy in their 40s.

    The best remedy for this worry is TikTok which is full of girls making themselves pretty and young lads being laddish. It’s like a tonic after you’ve read The Guardian or the BBC.

  7. Steve,

    “No, it’s a very rapid effect. Because at the same time birth rates have fallen below survival levels, immigration has increased above replacement levels.”

    Well yes, but that’s about government interference: allowing immigration far above market levels. It’s unsustainable and the political traffic is the other way now. No-one is scared of “racist!”. If the government don’t deal with this post-Covid, they’re going to see Farage back, tearing into Conservative seats.

    “The way we finance the welfare state is similar to a Ponzi scheme. An increase in the percentage of oldsters puts disproportionate strain on the falling percentage of the population who are economically active. Pushing out the retirement age is inevitable but has diminishing returns.”

    Yes, that’s absolutely true. It wasn’t well managed but this was where pension reforms were trying to take us in the 1980s, to get more private pensions, more money saved.

    It also doesn’t help that the wild overregulation of care homes leads to enormous costs. But then, I actually think families should generally look after their old relatives. In general, I think families should live in large multi-generational homes which would be really efficient: granny helps raise the kids, and 15 years later, mum and the kids look after granny. We have all sorts of perverse incentives and propaganda to prevent this, like “free” childcare, women who can do pointless degrees for almost nothing, public sector employment that then hires based on degrees for overpaid jobs, and care homes. If people saw the real cost of this stuff, if they had a choice, far less women would work.

  8. Has anyone done the sums for China? When I first heard about this story – maybe 30 years ago – I think the assumption was that 70% of China’s population would be over 60 by now. But it was a long time ago and in a different country

  9. But there isn’t a global crash in Aisha having sprogs with her cousin Mo which means cultural death for Europe in 50 years

  10. The turn over point for Europe is predicted to be 2060, when the browns outnumber the whites. This is a conservative estimate as for example, London became minority white before predicted. However, as Steyn says, the crucial thing is not head count but fighting age men. That majority will be reached a fair bit earlier. Not long after that the strong, independent women become infidel whores. As Patrick says, this is peak feminism. Enjoy it while it lasts, girls.

  11. BoM4 – It’s unsustainable and the political traffic is the other way now. No-one is scared of “racist!”. If the government don’t deal with this post-Covid, they’re going to see Farage back, tearing into Conservative seats.

    Sure. This is why it’s important to avoid despair (Marvin the Paranoid Conservative’s friend).

    Some blokes above mention the rotten consequences of rotten demographics. They are correct, but… We don’t actually know what the future holds, it’s going to be a bumpy ride though, because Western liberalism is quite literally a death cult.

  12. I don’t see the problem. More space to live in. There is no reason to desire any particular population size. Has Britain ever suffered from too small a population? Remember, we are all in the end taking in each others’ washing.

    And no, you don’t make up the numbers with foreigners. It’s fine, really it is. You never know, given a century of this people might even be able to afford houses again.

  13. BoM4,
    Private pension saving doesn’t solve the underlying problem of the retired/working-age population ratio. Working-age people will have to devote an ever increasing % of their work output to supporting old people. Makes no difference whether that % is collected as tax or as rent or as company profits.

  14. …because Western liberalism is quite literally a death cult.

    You’re literally Hitler for saying that.

  15. PJF – I know, funny how you get more right wing as you get older.

    The Guardian has recently been running a campaign telling their readers how great being childless is, and how it’s important to ensure your family line dies with you, because of the environment. This would’ve been the stuff of bad science fiction in the 70’s, possibly starring Charlton Heston.

  16. Steve,

    Current era, post-Boomer “liberals” are basically on their way out. They aren’t really liberals, anyway, they’re Mary Whitehouse with blue hair and different stuff to ban.

    They’re facing the same problem as churchmen in the 1970s of emerging technologies that grab eyeballs away from them. In the 1970s, it was TV, today it’s the internet and social media. They’re desperately trying to control and hobble them, because it gives power to other people, and they don’t want that.

    My guess is that this is going to lead to an era of conservatism, a bit of pendulum swinging. And I don’t mean religion, but more of a stoics sort of responsible conservatism more akin to Jordan Peterson with a bit more nationalism.

  17. Working-age people will have to devote an ever increasing % of their work output to supporting old people.

    Have to? There’s another way of dealing with “the underlying problem of the retired/working-age population ratio,” and the Antifa generation doesn’t seem so fond of the wrinklies.

  18. Maybe we could increase production by people actually doing productive work instead of throwing away years on a Studies degree then an unproductive life in the Third Sector.

  19. There’s another way of dealing with “the underlying problem of the retired/working-age population ratio,”

    Pack them all into reservations (aka “retirement homes”) and get the chinks to cook up another virus?

  20. Feminism? Education? Birth control (by women)? One thing not so far mentioned on this thread is urbanisation. That is the biggest source of birth control. China is desperately trying to undo 40 years of one child families, and it won’t work, because they have built a zillion crappy two bed flats. Same goes fo Singapore, it crosses political boundaries.

    Anyway at 2% growth our descendants will be four times richer than us, and at 3% growth they’ll be 8X richer, in real terms. We’re already rich enough to save global warming, rewrite history and hire 100grand diversity consultants. Think what we can do with all that extra money.

  21. Bloke on soon to be managed motorway. “In general, I think families should live in large multi-generational homes which would be really efficient”

    this is already practised by large amounts of South Asian families. It makes a lot of sense too from an economic perspective. But Western culture is all about separating generations. I remember being astonished talking to Asian work colleagues who were moving in with their in-laws after getting married. Another example is white people deliberately going to the furthest possible university to avoid contact with your parents. Brunel University is almost exclusively Asian kids from Southall/Uxbridge.

    It works well for businesses too. How many Asian corner shops flourished because the whole family pitched in.

    As I get older the more I realise the importance of families. I still have the aversion to living cheek by jowl under the same roof, but geographical proximity seems like a good idea.

  22. @ AndrewM
    Projections seen in Sci Fi in my youth with robots doing all the heavy manual worker and low-skilled menial jobs isn’t all that far away – just abolish trade unions and we could see 90% of it in our lifetime. Japan with its company unions automated heavy and/or monotonous labour far faster than the west.
    Our grandchildren (if any) or other people’s grandchildren can enjoy a higher standard of living while a portion of the return on capital invested in machines is used to pay for care homes for the elderly.

  23. Western liberalism is quite literally a death cult.

    I’d say thankfully but it seems to involve a lot of collateral damage.

    Braver Western liberals will sometimes tell you (if no one is looking) that Islam is a death cult. Quite the opposite.

  24. Ian Reid,

    “this is already practised by large amounts of South Asian families. It makes a lot of sense too from an economic perspective. But Western culture is all about separating generations. I remember being astonished talking to Asian work colleagues who were moving in with their in-laws after getting married. Another example is white people deliberately going to the furthest possible university to avoid contact with your parents. Brunel University is almost exclusively Asian kids from Southall/Uxbridge.”

    I think it’s very much a thing where we’ve made it abnormal for someone to live with their parents, it’s a dominant media narrative that everyone should leave at 18, and how cool it is. And to some extent, kids go for it because they’re often arguing with their parents in the teenage years. But actually, late teens/early 20s are fine. I got on just fine with mine.

    I assume this is why so many Asian countries have love hotels. You don’t get your own place so you can shag in private, you just rent a room for a couple of hours to bang.

    I know quite a few people in their 50s and 60s with huge, half empty homes, while their kids live elsewhere. Many of them do bum jobs in a city that sucks up their rent.

  25. I’ve been saying for some time that a sensible government would be encouraging people to eat, drink, smoke and drug their way to an early grave, while taxing those things heavily enough to raise plenty of revenue. Only by reducing average life expectancy can social insurance schemes that form the basis for pensions, health and old age social care be afforded. The last thing they should be doing is encouraging people to live long healthy abstemious lives, because they are the ones that cost the most – little in the way of sin tax revenue generated, lots of pension, health and social care costs. Social insurance schemes require people to work for 40 years paying taxes then drop dead asap. So if you are in favour of the wealth transfer inherent in social insurance thats what you should be advocating.

  26. “Working-age people will have to devote an ever increasing % of their work output to supporting old people.”

    Bollocks to that, I’m devoting a large percentage of *my* *own* income to supporting myself in my old age, and they should too, the scroungers. Anything else is unsupportable, as pointed out by many: a Ponzi scheme.

  27. Ian B – I’m using my Studies degree to plan a business campaign for 2021. The difference it will make over 10 years is perhaps a quarter million extra profit.
    I can live with that.

  28. I’ve little to add to what has been said above, except…

    The UK and the globe are full; and, all other things being equal (which they often aren’t), the quality of life would be better if the population was halved over a century or two.

    As for the economic effects, that would depend on the technologies available in the future, particularly in energy production and robotics…

    As for the social effects, those who cut their reproduction rates last will be the demographic winners…which suggests that the goatfuckistaners and jungle bunnies will be in a majority in the UK…

  29. Meanwhile…

    Other reports say: Global Population to hit 9 Billion, 11 billion, 16 billion by 2100

    @Steve July 15, 2020 at 1:01 pm
    Prince Harry O’Woke supports Groans “Be childless” campaign

    Seemingly Duchess Woke gave a speech yesterday to some Feminazi group – and it was word salad again

  30. On the news last night was mention of a high rate of the CCP virus in Blackburn, with those most affected being large families living in too small houses. That those spoken to were all from the RoP suggest that, for some, the birth rate isn’t declining. The majority of Muslim women don’t go out to work – some aren’t even allowed to go out of the house! According to the Koran, these women can be beaten if they refuse to have sex with their husbands or, it has been suggested, his brothers and cousins. Without contraception, it is not surprising there are too large families in too small houses. Islamic birth rates are certainly not declining.

  31. @Theo

    “ . . . the quality of life would be better if the population was halved . . .”

    Ah, the Thanos solution. It’s worth pointing out that if the population was halved by a snap of the fingers it would return numbers to what they were in 1973.

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