Whether we get a second coronavirus wave is unknown, but that there’s a risk of it is a fact, so we have to stay in semi-lockdown. And Covid 19 is endemic now: even a vaccine is unlikely to erase it. So everything will be different. There’s a long term socio/medical impact of this.
Not really, no. If it’s now endemic then we don’t stay in semi-lockdown. Because doing so doesn’t bring a benefit to match the cost.. It ends up as a nasty ‘flu that some thousands to tens of thousands will die of each year. Tant pis and all that.
This is also fun:
Because of the risk of falling house prices negative equity traps must also be avoided: it should be made illegal for any mortgage repayment on sale to ever exceed the sale value of a property.
That makes all mortgages non-recourse. Which also, obviously, makes all mortgages more expensive. As happens in the US, where some states have non-recourse mortgages and others don’t.
Oh, it also makes speculation in housing a one way bet for the investor. That’s just what the country needs, right?
Explore how to turn redundant engineering skills into bike manufacturing capacity.
“‘Allo Mr. fracking engineer. You know how to make bikes then?”
Fifth, forget tax rises: facing a crisis like this they should be off the agenda for a long time. Any tax reforms should be solely about making society fairer e.g. by tackling wealth inequality, with no net increases.
Sixth, savings – and especially tax incentivised ISAs and pensions – must be put to work to support this programme. Unless they are invested in new sustainable jobs the tax reliefs must go.
And removing tax reliefs is, of course, not raising taxes….
And the route to that collapse is very short. It begins next month as furlough begins to wind down. The mass redundancies will begin to be announced in September when the end of furlough is imminent. And by then the corporate failures will be rising.
Which is a nice prediction isn’t it? Let’s come back to this in October, shall we?