The three professors try epidemiology

Whether we get a second coronavirus wave is unknown, but that there’s a risk of it is a fact, so we have to stay in semi-lockdown. And Covid 19 is endemic now: even a vaccine is unlikely to erase it. So everything will be different. There’s a long term socio/medical impact of this.

Not really, no. If it’s now endemic then we don’t stay in semi-lockdown. Because doing so doesn’t bring a benefit to match the cost.. It ends up as a nasty ‘flu that some thousands to tens of thousands will die of each year. Tant pis and all that.

This is also fun:

Because of the risk of falling house prices negative equity traps must also be avoided: it should be made illegal for any mortgage repayment on sale to ever exceed the sale value of a property.

That makes all mortgages non-recourse. Which also, obviously, makes all mortgages more expensive. As happens in the US, where some states have non-recourse mortgages and others don’t.

Oh, it also makes speculation in housing a one way bet for the investor. That’s just what the country needs, right?

Explore how to turn redundant engineering skills into bike manufacturing capacity.

“‘Allo Mr. fracking engineer. You know how to make bikes then?”

Fifth, forget tax rises: facing a crisis like this they should be off the agenda for a long time. Any tax reforms should be solely about making society fairer e.g. by tackling wealth inequality, with no net increases.

Sixth, savings – and especially tax incentivised ISAs and pensions – must be put to work to support this programme. Unless they are invested in new sustainable jobs the tax reliefs must go.

And removing tax reliefs is, of course, not raising taxes….

And the route to that collapse is very short. It begins next month as furlough begins to wind down. The mass redundancies will begin to be announced in September when the end of furlough is imminent. And by then the corporate failures will be rising.

Which is a nice prediction isn’t it? Let’s come back to this in October, shall we?

29 thoughts on “The three professors try epidemiology”

  1. “…It ends up as a nasty ‘flu that some thousands to tens of thousands will die of each year…”

    The 2017-18 flu season claimed some 50,000 deaths. This was not a mild year, but was not uncommon. And no one outside the medical fraternity ever noticed it….

  2. To be fair, on the evidence so far there are a good number of epidemiological experts in the UK, some advising the various Govts, who are fvcking clowns and whose models, predictions and stratagems have been ruinously expensive and may prove on a total basis to have cost a lot of lives.

    So the opinions of the Ely fvckwit are not out of line with “the Science”.

  3. I imagine (I refuse to read the comments) that most tax evasion is ‘cash in hand’ by men in white* vans. Businesses may employ cunning wheezes to avoid tax, but tax evasion can end with directors going to jail, and they generally don’t want that.

    * vans may also come in other colours, apparently.

  4. Bloke in North Dorset

    Talking of cash in hand ….

    I was chatting to our landlord about people paying in cash and he said there were a few who insisted on it, which is a pain for him. He also said that these were generally the same people who preferred to get paid cash in hand when they do work for him and that they had to keep working because their books didn’t show them earning enough to get government largess.

  5. Why bikes?
    There are a lot of small bike manufacturers out there, but mainly catering to niche or high-end markets as scale means they can’t compete with the bigger manufacturers. You won’t some hyper lite weight folding design and prepared to pay a premium there’s someone already out there for you. Same as if you want a $20k downhill racing bike there’s plenty of bespoke shops either beholding or re-engineering.

  6. This bike talk (and beyond Spud) is ridiculous.

    The public transport problem is mostly about cities, and in general about office workers. But these are mostly people on laptops, who can work from home.

    The jobs where people have to go to work, like the Honda plant or Sharp’s Brewery aren’t in cities. They’re on the outskirts of cities or out in the sticks. People typically already drive or ride a bike to them.

    And yes, there’s exceptions, like hospitals in the middle of cities, but that doesn’t create a significant volume of people. Traffic congestion in London is about half what it was a year ago. Weekdays are more like Saturdays.

  7. Dennis, Etc., Etc., Etc.

    Explore how to turn redundant engineering skills into bike manufacturing capacity.

    Just a guess on my part, but I think most of the necessary engineering necessary for the design and production of bicycles has already been done. Last week, I think.

  8. The uk already has plenty of bike frame builders. These are however of the handmade and expensive variety. Most bicycle frames are made in Taiwan and are considerably cheaper than those made in this country eg I’m currently awaiting a frame and forks which though manufactured in Taiwan are sold by a UK company (Taiwan builds lots of frames for Uk companies)This frame is costing me £300 . An equivalent frame handbuilt in this country would be over £1000 (and made of steel rather than alloy). No new company will be able to compete with the likes of Shimano or Sram in the manufacture of all the running gear (cranks, derailleurs, brakes etc).There are plenty of bike companies based in the uk that have frames made for them in Taiwan to order -they assemble the bikes with parts from shimano /sram – it’s quite a thriving industry..Yet another area where the potato shows his complete lack of knowledge about the subject matter. Furthermore i doubt that he’s ridden a bicycle this century.

  9. Why bikes?

    Bike fetishism is about fapping to the thought of taking away your car and making you live like a Chinese peasant circa 1960. See also: Gideon’s belief that the horrid working classes shouldn’t be allowed to afford cheap flights to Spain.

    Ritchie will still need a car because he’s important, obvs.

  10. And Covid 19 is endemic now: even a vaccine is unlikely to erase it.

    So in this it would be unlike Polio or Smallpox – both of which were endemic, and both of which have been eradicated. The critical factors will be how (and how rapidly) the Wuhan virus mutates, whether there is an animal population that can act as a virus reservoir, and whether the affliction is dire enough to justify the effort of developing a vaccine and mounting a full global inoculation effort. At this point, no one knows – least of all the tre Proffessori. Of course, that goes without saying, since he is something of a black hole for understanding – knowledge goes in, and never comes out.

  11. BlokeInTejasInNormandy


    It’s not clear that knowledge ever penetrates far enough to count as “going in”…

  12. “Government forced to step in to prevent collapse in “too big to fail” bike industry”

    “Government under fire over ‘bike mountain’ nobody wants’……..

  13. “Explore how to turn redundant engineering skills into bike manufacturing capacity.” How sweet; I remember in the time of Wedgie Benn when a workers co-operative was developing a car with a fuel economy that was to be about three times better than anything available because The Capitalists had suppressed better engine designs.

    They are away with the fairies, these people, and seriously dim and ignorant with it.

  14. @BraveFart

    ONS Excess Deaths this year include ~12,000 Not Covid-19 – where did they come from?
    Oh, maybe lockdown & ‘Save NHS’ by only treating C-19 patients?
    S Tel today: 35,000 extra cancer cancer deaths expected this year

    Herd Immunity? 70-80% have innate immunity

    Hmm, how fatal has this Global Covid-19 Pandemic been then?
    Nov 2019 to date
    UK: ~45,000 deaths With C-19 from ~70,000,000 population
    Global: <600,000 deaths With C-19 from ~7,850,000,000 population
    Insignificant – or as I said here in February "a nothing burger"

  15. @ummmmm – well Triumph are thriving after being set up by John Bloor in 1991. Thankfully they’ve got nothing in common with the crap that came out of meriden. Theres other famous marques that have been resurrected but they are not mass market like triumph – Brough superior at £60000 a pop for starters.

  16. So Much For Subtlety

    That Taiwan dominates bike manufacturing is odd. They are not a low wage country any more. And it must be so tempting to move production to the Big Brother across the Strait.

    I think a good journalist would be asking why but I don’t know of anyone who has.

  17. This journalist has been known to sell the metal into Taiwan that they then made bike frames out of.

  18. Bike fetishism is about fapping to the thought of taking away your car and making you live like a Chinese peasant circa 1960.

    The progs were all wetting themselves about how Kiwis should get on bikes, and how that would make the world a better place, during lockdown. The quiet roads were delightful, it has to be said, and people were riding a bit more.

    Now, as it hoses down in substantial quantities for day after day, they are all suspiciously quiet. Because only a moron rides a bike anywhere in our winter.

    But I have no doubt next summer they will be extolling them again, apparently unaware that winter will follow.

  19. Johnson is –like Macron but a bit craftier –a car grabber.

    MOT gets more needlessly nit-picking and expensive, learn to drive and testing being made steadily more expensive and difficult.

    And of course the carbon cockrot.

    But things I think will change once the furloughed become the doloughed after October.

    True lots wont be able to afford a car anymore–but that will just boost the free-floating anger. Plans to ensure that you will never be able to afford or own one again will not be popular.

  20. Building a bike is not a simple thing any engineer can do. I watch the Alex Steele programme on YouTube. He’s a blacksmith and extremely experienced engineer and knows everything about metal. He got a kit to build a mountain bike and even he cocked stuff up when building it.

  21. Any politician who votes against car use for the masses will of course be required to use only bikes or public transport. No first class seats either. Or taxis. And of course city dwellers will lose car rights* first.

    * not the right to have a car, the right to travel in one.

  22. Building a bike is not a simple thing any engineer can do

    Any half-decent engineer with an ounce of practical skill should be able to design and make a bike using some off the shelf components and raw materials.

    Building a good bike better, cheaper and more efficiently than existing companies is not a simple thing any engineer can do


    Yes, I could spend the time fabbing up a bike from some section and components. But why bother when there’s already things on the market better and cheaper?

  23. Actually a half-decent engineer should be able to produce a man-powered road vehicle vastly superior to a bike. Bike’s are a Victorian engineering solution frozen in time with lots of high-tech goodies bolted on. Recumbent bikes (for instance) greatly reduce wind resistance and allow more force to be applied to the pedals without lifting you from the saddle.

    But competition bikes are regulated by the UCI with very tight constraints on physical dimensions, weight etc. and since all good MAMILs like to imagine they’re dancing on the pedals going up Alpe d’Huez, road bikes are made to look the same.

  24. @Mr Ecks
    Car ownershiip cost is not the problem. Reliable older cars available for <£500

    Annual cost of Insurance, Road Tax and MOT is the what cripples the poor – add in parking & congestion charges and it can easily exceed £1,000 pa

    Agree and second hand bicycles can be picked up for nothing

    Yes, Recumbent bikes better, but on-road they suffer same problem as C5 and shit for off-road. The 1890s 'safety bicycle' is like a horse/camel

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