This is glorious, wondrous, not something to fear

Almost a quarter of people in the Indian capital of Delhi have been infected with the coronavirus, according to scientists, raising fears there could be many more cases in the country of 1.3 billion people.

Random testing of more than 20,000 people in Delhi by India’s national disease control centre found that 23.48% had antibodies to the virus. Adjusting for false positives and negatives, it was estimated that 22.86% of the population had been infected, Sujeet Kumar Singh, who heads the institute, said on Tuesday.

Delhi, which has a population of 29 million, has officially reported 123,747 cases and 3,663 deaths, AP reported. The study, however, indicates more than 6.6 million likely cases, with most not identified or tested.

If a quarter of 29 million people have had it – say, that 6.6 million – and there have only been 3,700 deaths then that’s a fatality rate of 0.06%. Which is glorious news. Bit of a bummer for the 3,700 and their families of course but even so.

We’re down around the danger level of garbanzo beans or summat. We can open up and carry on that is. Because the coronavirus is now shown to be some trivial addition to the general risks of getting up in the morning.

Or, more accurately, the comment here should be that whoever is writing this story misses the basic point. The more people who have had it without the death numbers rising the better. That is, this is good news, not something to fear.

16 thoughts on “This is glorious, wondrous, not something to fear”

  1. View from the Solent

    23.48%, 22.86% ?! Amazing accuracy. Complete bollocks. Someone has learnt how to use a calculator to divide one number by another and express the answer as a percentage. And then the writer talks of an estimate. Displays a complete lack of understanding of anything arithmetical.

  2. Not read this, but I question how you can get a random sample in a city like Delhi with its slums. If anything it may mean the infected population is understated which would be even better news.

  3. Ah but a little further down the Grauniad’s piece:-

    Experts suspect that many virus deaths, especially among the elderly, are not being picked up in official fatality numbers.

    Not like over here where we tend to report all deaths to the man.

  4. ‘Random testing of more than 20,000 people in Delhi’: and yet as far as I know no developed country even tried random testing in the early days even though it was recommended by the greatest sages (e.g. me).

  5. Then add those with immunity from T cells alone. We are surely into the “A big boy made me do it and then he ran away” stage of government excuses.

  6. ‘ Bit of a bummer for the 3,700 and their families of course but even so.’

    Go spend a few hours on a geriatric ward, then revisit that statement.

    The virus is fatal in the 75+ age group, largely 80+ in fact, with one or more serious underlying conditions. I don’t think most people understand what quality of life elderly people with several serious conditions have. It’s not Bingo, sweet sherries, day trips to Margate or backpacking holidays in the Amazon Rainforests.

  7. “Antibodies found in more than 23% of Indian capital’s residents; Trump admits virus getting worse; Victoria reports record Australian daily tally”

    Guardian agrees with Trump. Wait . . . what?

    The article says, “Be afraid. Very afraid!”

  8. Bloke in North Dorset

    There was a stat going round that the average age of death of a Covid 19 patient in Scotland was higher than the average age of death.

    My observation from here, where we have 2 small campsites, the golf course, marina, supermarkets and beaches Is that people are learning to live with it.

  9. BiND. Given that Covid19 are disproportionately among the elderly that must be so. ‘Average age of death’ or life expectancy can be calculated in more than one way but using comparable stats the average age of death with covid19 will always be higher than for the popolation in general

  10. “A big boy made me do it and then he ran away”

    I like “It was bad boy from Kinlochleven, Miss”.

  11. @Tim W

    Well done, you’re beginning to accept C-19 has been a Scamdemic for many months

    Way back in February deaths did not support claim of epidemic or pandemic, but I was attacked (and still am) for calling it a ‘bad flu nothing-burger”

    Who has benefited from this Scamdemic – CCP’s China

    @philip, John B +1

  12. FWIW I heard a discussion today that claimed that hydroxychloroquine is widely available and used in India.


  13. @Pcar

    “Way back in February deaths did not support claim of epidemic or pandemic”

    Technically a disease can have zero deaths and still be both an epidemic and a pandemic. The words “epidemic” and “pandemic” are not about how nasty the disease is, just statements about the disease’s spread.

    You can argue reasonably that you don’t think the severity of the disease is anywhere near as bad as the media reports suggest and the counter-measures have been overblown, but you cannot argue the “claim” it is an epidemic is “not supported”. The rapid increase in cases of COVID-19 this year obviously represents an epidemic, by the dictionary definition. There are plenty of cases, more than a mere “outbreak” worth, and this isn’t a previously endemic disease, so that’s all new growth. Similarly you can’t look at the global spread and argue it isn’t a pandemic. Even if COVID-19 killed nobody, it ticks the boxes for being a pandemic. Lockdown-sceptical types chucking in claims like “it isn’t really an epidemic” doesn’t strengthen their arguments in any way and tends to undermine their credibility. Similarly the “fake pandemic” brigade on twitter. What’s the point of having a serious civil liberties and economic argument, then making it sound like you’re scientically illiterate nutcases?

  14. @MBE
    Technically an Epidemic is a disease that has a Significant lethal or disabling impact on a population

    C-19 does not meet this criteria

    Grant Shapps, Transport Secretary: Economic hit from coronavirus the ‘challenge of our times’, but Climate Change prevention is more important

    The virus did not cause the economic hit. The government’s response caused the crisis & hit. Numbers dying is no greater than bad flu

    In Scotland the average age of someone dying of the Coronavirus is higher than the national average life expectancy. Gov’t locked down healthy working age people who the virus is tiny threat to and crashed our economy.

    Gov’t should have admitted mistake and lifted their lockdown back in April when it was realised what cohort were affected by the virus

    You sound very scared of C-19, why?

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