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Fun fact

As Cambridge University risk expert Sir David Spiegelhalter put it recently: "Nobody in the history of humanity has been as safe as a contemporary primary school child

And thus the fuss over any risk to them of course. If there’s a 50/50 break that smallpox or a tiger will carry them off then worrying about the risks of their apple juice isn’t worth the effort. But if the only risk left is the juice….

5 thoughts on “Fun fact”

  1. How sad that Spiegelhalter should use “contemporary” in the American style. Really, it’s time to close all the universities.

  2. So Much For Subtlety

    There used to be a 50/50 chance of a tiger taking your children so women had to have six to eight children each. In order to insure that one survives.

    If one of the eight is in danger because of smallpox or conscription, it is all part of the circle of life. People can deal with it.

    Now White people have 1.5 children. The loss of one is a total loss. It is not 12%, it is roughly 100%.

    So naturally they are more risk adverse.

  3. This is good:

    “Are you sitting comfortably? This is Not the Six O’Clock News

    With the broadcast media’s coronavirus pessimism continuing apace, it’s time for some satire to lighten the mood
    Allison Pearson, 19 August 2020 • 11:39am

    You probably won’t hear this anywhere else so I want to tell you that it’s safe. Safe to go to the beach, safe to have tea with your friends, safe to meet up with your family. Not absolutely 100 percent safe, of course; nothing is. Yes, the virus may come back in the winter. But for the next few weeks, Gather ye roadside punnets of strawberries and have a G&T in the pub garden while ye may!

    The broadcast media, which did such a good job of creating fear in the population, continues to be relentless in its pessimism. Just imagine what it would be like if they allowed the true picture to emerge:

    It’s the BBC Six O’Clock News and Health Editor Hugh Pym is updating Sophie Raworth on the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Sophie: So, Hugh, we’ve seen another rise in cases today?

    Hugh: Yes, Sophie, there were 1,040 reported daily cases in England and Wales.

    Sophie: Gosh, that’s quite an uptick.

    Hugh: Well, it sounds a lot, Sophie, but we have to bear in mind that we are testing a lot more people so we are going to find more evidence of infection. Over 122,000 tests were processed, the most ever in a single day – 1,000 positives out of 122,000 tests is really very small.

    Sophie: Still, it’s a major cause for concern generally?

    Hugh: Well, not really. The PCR test is not totally reliable. It’s coming up with quite a lot of false positives. What the viewers probably don’t realise is the test can detect remnants of the virus. So someone who had Covid back in July, say, could be recorded today as a positive test, but he or she is now fully recovered.

    Sophie (checking her notes): But we do have the very real threat of more local lockdowns in places like Bedford because there are these spikes in Covid cases?

    Hugh (sighs): Well, they’re not really spikes, Sophie. A lot of healthy younger people are getting Covid now and they don’t have any symptoms at all. They don’t even know they’ve been infected. But if they test positive they’re added to the list. But a positive test really only becomes a “case” when someone gets sick enough that they need to be admitted to hospital.

    Sophie: And how many cases are being admitted to hospital, Hugh?

    Hugh (looks sheepish): Not very many to be honest with you.

    Sophie: But we’re still in the middle of a global pandemic?

    Hugh: Ah, but are we? There are 141,000 hospital beds in England, Sophie. Today, just 599 of those beds are occupied by patients with Covid-19.

    Sophie: You’re kidding me!

    Hugh: No, I’m not. We have 1,257 hospitals in total so rather a large number of hospitals don’t have a single Covid case.

    Sophie: So why aren’t hospitals fully open to non-Covid patients, Hugh?

    Hugh: That’s a really good question, Sophie. Could some NHS managers be saving money by keeping wards closed? The Department of Health doesn’t have a clue what’s going on, as per usual. And, of course, a lot of doctors have been working from home in the south of France and they can’t get back because of the quarantine.

    Sophie (frantically consults notes): What about the deaths, though, Hugh? They’re really really bad.

    Hugh: Sorry to disappoint, but NHS England reported just two Covid-related hospital deaths today. Wales and Scotland haven’t had any Covid deaths for quite some time. In fact, deaths in the UK have been below average for the past seven weeks now. It’s starting to look like deaths in 2020 will be no higher than they were in 2019.

    Sophie: Then how could the Government possibly justify keeping all the social distancing measures and imposing lockdowns?

    Hugh: Er… I think they’re worried that if they tell the public the truth it will be hard to regain control”

    MÉDECINS RÉCALCITRANTS : Une interview en direct qui passe mal
    Turn On English subs

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