Gee, ya think?

The Republican convention is proof that traditional Republicans have given up
Cas Mudde
If Trump gets re-elected, Republicans will say they were always with him. If he loses, they’ll say it was just Trump who lost, not the Republican establishment

Hills losing was Hills losing, not a rejection of managerialist progressivism.


33 thoughts on “Gee, ya think?”

  1. Traditional republicans? Who is that exactly? Country Clubbers? Skull and Bones? Never-Trumpers? Trump hijacked the party by appealing direct to their voters, bypassing the RNC and all the above. They didn’t support him. If he loses, they will indeed blame him. If he wins they will not get over their resentment.

    (He isn’t going to lose.)

  2. So Much For Subtlety

    The whole point of Hillary losing is that it wasn’t Hillary losing – how can the Queen be unpopular? The peasants love her! – it was the Russians! The Russians today, the Russians tomorrow, the Russians forever.

    Trump has no fans in the Republican leadership. Only among the voters.

  3. Harry Haddock's Ghost

    Whilst I would enjoy the toy throwing, Trump won’t be winning I’m afraid. Not a chance in hell.

    But he’s rebalanced the supreme court so it’s not all bad news.

  4. Dunno, Harry.

    It’s very difficult to read the tea leaves due to the media having abandoned even pretending to not be shriekingly angry propaganda outlets, and Covid is one of them African American Swan events.

    But I don’t reckon the senile rapist will win, and “mostly peaceful” rioting, burning and murders happening across the US probably isn’t a vote winner for the Democrats. Feels like there’s a lot more palpable enthusiasm for Trump than Biden, tho they’re both running terrible, low-energy campaigns (so far)

    Could be a Nixon style blowout for BLUMF. Could be t’other way around. Probably will be another narrow, bitterly contested outcome.

    It’s too weird for my spidey senses to work reliably.

  5. Harry

    You are wrong there.

    The presidential election is an electoral college vote: the Democrats will pile up millions of useless votes on the coasts and Trump will do what he did last time, gather enough electoral college votes to see him over the line. The riots, Covid and the inflated boost to the economy that is coming in September and October will do it for him

  6. Steve, please. The correct (guaranteed today only, don’t ask me about tomorrow) term is ‘swan of colour’.

  7. Harry Haddock's Ghost

    I just don’t see it. Everyone from the internet companies to the MSM will do all they can to under report any good news and zero in on bad news. I suspect he will loose by a significant margin.

  8. Harry Haddock's Ghost

    True, but he is much, much further behind in the polls this time. Additionally, appalling as the other guy is, he’s not Clinton.

  9. Harry

    Compared to last time, he’s actually ahead in the polls at the same date. You also have to note The different levels of enthusiasm. The Democrats are not enthusiastic at all about Biden, Republicans are raring to go to vote for Trump again

  10. Dennis, Who's Got Him A Shootin' Iron

    Everyone from the internet companies to the MSM will do all they can to under report any good news and zero in on bad news.

    The machinations of the mainstream media and Silicon Valley would be effective if either had any credibility with the American public. Neither does.

    Not that it matters.

    The Democrats have linked themselves to BLM (and by proxy, Antifa), which is now becoming more violent and intrusive (ie, hitting the suburbs). People may not care for Donald Trump, but they care for violent Marxists in their neighborhoods even less. And it’s past the point of being able to decouple from them via a half-hearted denouncement. The Democrats have made law and order an issue, and they’ve managed to put themselves on the wrong side of it. Big time.

    Yesterday Nancy Pelosi stated – publicly – that Joe Biden shouldn’t debate Donald Trump. What does that tell us? I suggest it’s that Biden’s dementia is in a gallop and it’s bad enough that Biden’s staff has taken the problem to the party’s congressional leaders for help. Pelosi fully understands that ducking the debates would cost Biden dearly, which gives you an indication of how bad Biden is doing.

  11. Dennis: Oppressor, Warmonger, Capitalist and Consumer of Petroleum Products

    So now you’re pining for return of “truaditional” Republicans, eh, Cas?


    Like Bush, McCain and Romney.


    The very same men I’m sure you branded as publicly branded as Nazis at one time or another in the past.

    Now they don’t look quite so bad, do they Cas?

    Especially now that it’s clear we’re getting four more years of the real Nazi.

    Life comes at you fast, Dude.

  12. Ltw – BIPOC Swan
    Won’t you come
    And wash away the rain
    BIPOC Swan
    Won’t you come
    Won’t you come (won’t you come)

  13. Dennis, Soccer Hooligan

    Harry –

    Get on YouTube and watch Anderson Cooper’s interview with Joe Biden from yesterday.

    No candidacy can survive that sort of performance day in and day out over the course of two months.

    Joe Biden will not debate Donald Trump… You’re reading it here first.

  14. Harry,

    Have a look at the analysis that Tim Pool does on YouTube. He’s left of centre, but not a fan of Democrats and he calls out the media lies and looks at the developing situation quite rationally.

  15. I’ve just watched that interview.

    I’ve heard far worse from Biden. This wasn’t the salivating gibberish of Biden connoisseurs. Steve’s moon juice may be doing its dark work.

    The interesting thing, or one of them, is, as someone else here commented a few weeks ago, how the HeapBigChiefs of the Septic political scene have ended up resembling the Brezhnev-era Politburo.

  16. Bloke in North Dorset

    I was of the opinion a few weeks back that despite everything Biden would get over the line, but now I’m not sure:

    Matthew Goodwin linked to a poll that showed that support amongst Trump supporters was hard with something like 98% certain to vote whilst Biden’s was quite soft with only something like 50% of his voters (may have been lower) certain they’d vote.

    There was no bounce after the Harris pick was announced. It was heavily trailed but you’d expect something to show. Harris may have gone down well with Dem supporters but given her legacy in California its difficult to see many blacks being ecstatic about it.

    We know the that women won’t for for a woman just because she’s a woman, so no extra votes there.

    No bounce in the polls following the Dem’s convention.

    Trump is a crap at government, but he is an extraordinary campaigner and he hasn’t started yet, especially in the swing states. He won’t have forgotten that this is an electoral college system, the Dems still seem to think its about national polls.

    I think this is going to be the stay at home election. Lots of those anybody but Trump Rep voters are going to stay at home rather than switch despite what they’re telling pollsters. Similarly, I think a lot of blacks that Biden thinks are in his pocket will stay at home given his performance over the violence and rioting and the Harris pick. Also, conservative blacks vote Democrat in the same way conservative working class in UK vote Labour, out of habit. The left has been doing their best to piss of those people.

  17. Dennis, He Who Triggers Lud

    I’ve heard far worse from Biden.

    Most of us have. It isn’t Biden’s worst that will doom it, it will be his best. Joe Biden cannot win the presidency if the best he can do is what he did with Anderson Cooper.

  18. Bloke in North Dorset said:
    “Harris may have gone down well with Dem supporters but given her legacy in California its difficult to see many blacks being ecstatic about it.”

    I’m not really up on Yankee local politics, but what’s she done to upset them?

  19. I believe it was because in California she was very much more pro law and order and locked up her fair share of black men along with the the rest of the member of the legal system

  20. I’m not really up on Yankee local politics, but what’s she done to upset them?

    As Ummmm says, she has a background as a prosecutor in California who has been (and remains) a vocal proponent of law enforcement and the American justice system, whereas a lot of African-American men see that system as institutionally racist and anti-Black, so you can see why they aren’t particularly enthusiastic.

    Kamala Harris had also expected the African-American vote to come to her without going out and campaigning hard for it, but outside California she failed to gain any real traction with African-American voters preferring “Obama’s Veep”, the rather pasty white Sleepy Joe Biden to Kamala Harris.

    Bizarrely, there are accusations that despite going to a black College and being a member of the black AKA fraternity, she simply wasn’t “Black enough”, given her father was Jamaican and her mother Indian and she spent part of her teenage years in Canada.

  21. “Trump is a crap at government”

    Are you fucking joking BiND? As a Tory your judgement is doubtless poor but Trump has kept America out of several wars Killery would have kicked off, built 1/3 of the wall despite massive opposition and put money in US pockets. Yeah he is nowhere vs America ‘s ultimate debt/financial problems but NONE of them are.

  22. Donald Trump has been President for 3 years, 221 days, 10 hours, 16 minutes and 30 seconds.

    He still ain’t Hillary.

    This was all he needed to achieve to win at being President. Everything else is a bonus.

  23. There was also the fact she admitted smoking dope in college, having prosecuted lots of people for marijuana offences as Attorney General.

  24. The media have their personal favourite sort of stories, but I guarantee that a lot of Americans are really focussed on the looting and violence in American cities. The media get into all sorts of trivia, but the basic things of voters and government is the economy and their security. “Is your house going to get burned down” matters far more to most Americans than whether a President put the children of illegal immigrants in cages.

    As we get closer to the election, the smart thing for Trump to do would be to run a campaign pointing out who runs places like Portland and Chicago.

  25. As we get closer to the election, the smart thing for Trump to do would be to run a campaign pointing out who runs places like Portland and Chicago.

    I don’t know. The “Something’s wrong with Sleepy Joe” line seems to be working pretty well. He’s had to climb out of his bunker and go and face the press (a rather weak performance at best) and now has to go out into the field to try and shore up the Democratic vote in Minnesota…and it ain’t even September yet.

    If I was Trump I’d be doing more of the same up to election day. While cities that have been Democrat run shitholes for decades are burning on the nightly news, Trump won’t need to say anything about Democrat performance. It is writ large in burning embers across the night sky.

  26. Trump’s main problem is in convincing the voters that the economy went downhill owing to Covid and the State governors’ response to it, rather than his economic policy. It should be doable since the economy was fine before Covid and the Governors have been strenuously asserting that they run their States.
    Everything else points to a Trump victory.
    Including, oddly enough, his being behind in the July polls. The guy who is behind in July usually wins.
    I’m guessing Trump has saved the bulk of his campaign effort until it’s too late for the Dems to drop Biden.

  27. I’m guessing Trump has saved the bulk of his campaign effort until it’s too late for the Dems to drop Biden.

    I guess that makes sense. Nothing was certain until the Dems had been through the official nomination. Not much can change now because names have to go on ballots in all 50 states and I’d guess it’s a bit late to change anything now.

    What the heck would happen if Creepy Joe has an heart attack or stroke is anybody’s guess. Would the Dems upgrade Kamala Harris’ ticket to first and pick another Veep candidate or would it be back to the drawing board?

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