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Second lockdown, eh?

OK, sure, it’s pubs and be careful folks.

But really. Even if herd immunity wasn’t the correct response last time – which I think it was – it is now.

53 thoughts on “Second lockdown, eh?”

  1. Bloke in North Dorset

    This is a long and somewhat turgid article about testing and how Pillar 2 testing is almost certainly mainly presenting false positives. However in the middle of it he talks about 2nd waves and what we are seeing here.

    “ As there is no foundational, medical or scientific literature which tells us to expect a ‘second wave’, I began to pay more attention to the phrase as it appeared on TV, radio and print media – all on the same day – and has been relentlessly repeated ever since. I was interviewed recently by Julia Hartley-Brewer on her talkRADIO show and on that occasion I called on the Government to disclose to us the evidence upon which they were relying to predict this second wave. Surely they have some evidence? I don’t think they do. I searched and am very qualified to do so, drawing on academic friends, and we were all surprised to find that there is nothing at all. The last two novel coronaviruses, Sar (2003) and MERS (2012), were of one wave each. Even the WW1 flu ‘waves’ were almost certainly a series of single waves involving more than one virus. I believe any second wave talk is pure speculation. Or perhaps it is in a model somewhere, disconnected from the world of evidence to me? It would be reasonable to expect some limited ‘resurgence’ of a virus given we don’t mix like cordial in a glass of water, but in a more lumpy, human fashion. You’re most in contact with family, friends and workmates and they are the people with whom you generally exchange colds.

    A long period of imposed restrictions, in addition to those of our ordinary lives did prevent the final few percent of virus mixing with the population. With the movements of holidays, new jobs, visiting distant relatives, starting new terms at universities and schools, that final mixing is under way. It should not be a terrifying process. It happens with every new virus, flu included. It’s just that we’ve never before in our history chased it around the countryside with a technique more suited to the biology lab than to a supermarket car park.”

    It’s as plausible explanation for thei crease in cases that I’ve seen and goes some way to explaining why Sweden isn’t seeing the same resurgence.

  2. And how many pubs will there be left, next year. Pubs weren’t exactly a license to print money before Coronapanic. Most pubs have been only marginally profitable for a while. Why so many have been closing. Wonder how many that are open at the moment have even been covering costs? How long can a business carry on like that?
    Same story here but worse. When I first travelled along this coast, 40 years ago, there was bugger all here. The town I live in was a small fishing port. Now slowly but surely we’re losing it all. Bars, restaurants, shops are closing. Rest is stumbling along. Trading because the business still exists & it’s just about better to be open than to be closed. You can’t do that for ever. And also failing are the businesses provide the services to them. And the businesses provide the services to those. It took 40 years to build this up & it’s slowly collapsing. How long would it take to rebuild it. Another 40 years? How do yet the tourists back to a place has nothing to offer them?

  3. Stop testing well people, encourage the vulnerable to improve their immunity with vit D3 and vit C. If they want to take low dose hydroxychloroquine plus Zn++, dole it out at pharmacies like much of the third world! For every private sector job lost through this insanity, fire a government one, starting at the top to concentrate minds.

  4. As I’ve said before, this does have the feel of a softening-up exercise. I don’t think it was to begin with. I think they just finally stumbled on the correct Project Fear alchemical mix, and have been working out what to do with the result: given the levels of compliance thus far achieved, what else can’t they impose?

    My money’s on outright, full-throttle eco-lunacy and I’d cards.

  5. Indeed – living with it has seemed the only sensible option for several months.

    This Spectator article does a reasonable job of showing how we’re being played by our own government just by looking at the data and not opinions [open in incognito to avoid the article limit]. My own analysis shows the same picture – there is no evidence of an “exponential” rise – it is linear at worst (in every country I have looked at), and looking at data from countries a few weeks ahead of us, there is nothing to suggest that the “example” (scare) scenario is at all likely, nor that death rates will rise the same as the currently recorded “cases”.

    Furthermore, the latest ONS data seems to show deaths at every age group significantly lower than both 2019 and the 5 year average, which to my mind does not support the idea of limiting our liberty.

    Andrew M is right… from the start, the Sweden model has been shown comprehensively to be both more mature and more effective than what has been done in the UK.

  6. A prediction: this will go away when we reach the break point for community resistance. Contact tracing will drive out the last remaining clusters. But the folk behind the tracing teams will then claim it was them that won the war.
    Is it clear yet if people who tested +ve but were never symptomatic were spreaders to any degree?

  7. I recently had a conversation with someone – bright, articulate, possessing a UCL degree (albeit in English) – who suggested lockdown works because the death toll has dropped.

    This is what we’re up against.

  8. As far as we can tell that would mean about 5,000,000 dead British citizens , not to say an economy even more ravaged than it is now….

    I assume you are not serious …………

    NISUS: Good. Out of the door. Line on the left. One cross each. Next. Crucifixion?
    MR. CHEEKY: Ah, no. Freedom.
    JAILER: Hmm?
    NISUS: What?
    MR. CHEEKY: Eh, freedom for me. They said I hadn’t done anything, so I could go free and live on an island somewhere.
    NISUS: Oh. Oh, well, that’s jolly good. Well, off you go, then.
    MR. CHEEKY: Naa, I’m only pulling your leg. It’s crucifixion, really.
    NISUS: Oh, ho ho.
    MR. CHEEKY: Heh heh heh hehh.

    NISUS: I see. Uh, very good. Very good. Well, out of the door. One–

    MR. CHEEKY: Yeah. I know the way. Out of the door……..

  9. @John “A balanced and sensible article (well I think so anyway) from yesterday’s bbc site.”

    Nick Triggle seems to be about the only BBC journalist capable of doing this at the moment.

  10. As far as we can tell

    Who is this ‘we’? You and your mate Neil Ferguson? 5,000,000 deaths would require every single person in the UK to contract the disease and a death rate of 8%. Care to justify that number?

    It appears (despite claiming, heaven help us, to work in ‘insurance’) your grasp of epidemiology is as weak as your grasp on politics and economics.

  11. As with everything, those who slavishly read their dinosaur media platform of choice are still cowering away in fear of COVID as endless news of the growing number of cases is shared. To those of us who dip in and out of the dinosaur media and generally apply common sense and critical thinking it is clear that lockdown needs to end: we “saved the NHS” (vomit) already, we cannot lockdown our way out of COVID and the key metric – deaths – is not increasing at all, therefore it is no longer an issue.

  12. “Oh, and chances are we can kiss goodbye to jury trials.”

    Ed- you’re not bloomin serious are you? what’s happening at the moment?

  13. The technocratic classes, aided and abetted by the media and politicians have been waging war against the independent middle classes, the working class, the elderly, school children ie everyone who is not a member of Thomas Sowell’s “Anointed”, doing real and lasting damage to the economy and social fabric. They need to be overthrown, tried, humiliated and stripped of any ability to promote their Gramscian agenda and social engineering. War crimes require exposure and prosecution.

  14. Deaths and hospitalisations are actually both up, though not by very much. Whether this is just the season, confusion with other respiratory diseases, or a harbinger of something worse is too early to tell. This is true of the UK, France and Spain.

    Whether or not Covid is now just another low-level risk, we’re well into “one death is one too many” country now.

  15. “As I’ve said before, this does have the feel of a softening-up exercise. I don’t think it was to begin with. I think they just finally stumbled on the correct Project Fear alchemical mix, and have been working out what to do with the result: given the levels of compliance thus far achieved, what else can’t they impose?”

    No doubt true, M’Lud. But we need to look at this like one would a crime. What’s the motivation?
    So let’s have a shot at motivations.
    1)The government always gets the blame for everything. If the country ended up with a massive Covid death toll it’d be the fault of the government. Not the virus, Not the lumbering incompetent for generations NHS. Not the public for ignoring precautions. The buck stops at No 10.
    2)Measures to prevent the spread of the virus – lockdowns, social distancing, travel restrictions etc all have economic costs.
    3)Those opposed to the government – that’s opposition politicians, much of the media, Remain in the EU fanatics, almost the entire academic class, a large part of the civil service & public sector… add to the list at your leisure – have a vested interest in there being as much economic damage as possible. Because the government always gets the blame. All will see it as a route to getting what they want.
    Now the government, in common with those in item 3) and – to be honest, you & me – don’t give a fuck about Joe Public. Altruism is a rare bird seldom sighted. All care primarily about Number One, although no doubt there’ll be ingenious explanations here why that’s not true. The level of ingeniousness proving why it is. So this is all about damage control. It’s in the government’s interest to instil the maximum fear in the public. That way the public bears the largest cost of mitigating the effect of the virus in loss of personal freedoms. And it will make much more credible the government blaming the virus for the inevitable economic damage. And of course not pursuing this policy would leave it open to accusations by its opponents that it should have. Who’ll be seeking to blame the government for anything & everything that transpires.

  16. Mr Be, yes I am serious. The entirety of the court estate is overloaded with a backlog of cases. Attempts have been made to expand the criminal court estate with Nightingale courts so as to clear the backlog but the cleverclogs who plan our lives neglected, among other things, to fit them with secure docks so they’re useless.

    In the meantime Plod continues to arrest villains, so the backlog increases and all the while custody time limits (for those remanded awaiting trial) loom – I think those CTLs have recently been extended to accommodate, but that won’t wash forever; even in this Pit of a country they won’t get away with permanent incarceration without trial.

    At the same time jury trials require jurors to sit cheek-by-jowl, which of course with the current hysteria cannot or will not happen.

    And ultimately, criminal cases are going to collapse for these reasons and because defence lawyers are going to start arguing, quite rightly, that the delays to their client’s trial will be such as to render them unfair.

    And the last thing the government wants is for the public to see one outcome of its brilliance being the widespread release without trial of those facing allegations of truly serious criminality.

    So TPTB, and you’ll remember that as with ID cards they’ve long wanted to get rid of jury trials, have been batting around the suggestion of doing just that in order to clear the backlog, just as a temporary measure you understand …

  17. I don’t log onto LinkedIn too often these days, so I have just spotted this in my timeline.
    If I was this fucking melt’s boss, I’d really be on his case. God I hope there isn’t a fire while he’s in the office, can you imagine the panic ?

    Managing Consultant at Sogeti, part of Cap Gemini

    1 week ago
    My 1st day in the Capgemini Holborn office today. Not only after lockdown, but as a Sogeti / cap Gemini employee (almost 6 months after starting and working from home). Bit nervy on a fairly busy tube, but feel very very safe in the office. Fantastic covid protocols in place. 3 different people have given me a briefing on top of the online office video I watched yesterday. And all the materials / sanitiser / masks etc I could hope for. And a fantastic view. Much better than my flat’s. Well done to all who put this in place

  18. Sorry meant half a million
    Yes I see on that basis its worth it only a bit more than the second world war, civilian and fighting men combined.

    Are you all quite mad ?

  19. “So TPTB, and you’ll remember that as with ID cards they’ve long wanted to get rid of jury trials, have been batting around the suggestion of doing just that in order to clear the backlog, just as a temporary measure you understand …”

    You make a very good point there, M’Lud. Everyone but everyone will be using Coronapanic to further their own agenda. Even if the connection is tenuous or non-existent.

  20. The good news is that Blojob has bottled the second Lockdown. A yellow Uturn that benefits us for once.

    Whatever shite he announces will just rub more people up the wrong way. There seem to be an incorrigible hard-core of bedwetter scum as with the remainiac scum–no surprise Facepaint is amongst them. But at least a third of folk are now smelling Bloj’s bullshit–and that is enuf for a revolution.

  21. Otto, John,

    Not unusual for companies to ask their employees to post stuff on linkedin. Most of it plug, but wokewash not unheard of.

    Not my boss, but I’ve heard it from American companies.

  22. bis,
    Ditto my beloved Pattaya. It makes me want to weep. The Patts I visited in February is likely gone forever.

    I remember, as a youngster, when you chatted to older people, they would say things like “When I was young, we used to do this, we used to do that, of course, that was before the war.” That’s what the future’s going to be like. Old people reminiscing, then adding the caveat, “of course, that was before the virus.”

  23. “You make a very good point there, M’Lud. Everyone but everyone will be using Coronapanic to further their own agenda.”

    That was rather my point about the softening-up exercise, Mr in Spain: they’ve been gifted their Holy Grail, a Project Fear that actually works on very large numbers of people – so now what are they going to do with it?

  24. @Roué le Jour
    I’ve yet to meet anyone here understands this. The seem to think there’s a “normal” around the next corner. Some businesses were only marginally viable, before Coronapanic. They’re gone or are going now. And the rot will continue from the less profitable up to the more. At some point the place will lose critical mass. Why come here if there’s little here to enjoy? How long would it take to build back up when, if you want to start a business, there aren’t the support service businesses in place? A restaurant needs somewhere to buy the food, drinks the table linen, plates & cutlery, printing for the menus… And there needs to be competition in the markets they’re buying in. Where do you find competent staff? Waiters & chefs aren’t going to be sitting on their thumbs for the next few years.

  25. ‘My money’s on outright, full-throttle eco-lunacy and I’d cards.’

    I sincerely hope not. Though I have noticed M’Lud, that it’s customary to talk about the wonderful new Eden we’ll build when the lockdown is over.

  26. BiG

    Quite possibly, but he didn’t have to make it sound like

    “Come and give it to me hard like a sissy girly, big boy.”

    Did he ?

  27. I agree M’Lud. But I don’t buy into conspiracy theories & The New World Order (trumpets). This isn’t planned. There’s no overarching strategy. It’s just people taking advantage when the situation presents itself. It’s what people do.

  28. Bono has announced this shit will be around for the next 6 months.
    I find it impossible to express how much of a cunt Boris has become. Piano wire is to good for them all.

  29. Nick Triggle seems to be about the only BBC journalist capable of doing this at the moment.

    Which is strange, as in previous years he was a full-on advocate of every loony Public Health scare imaginable. Still, good to see some rational and fair reporting.

    As for the government using this…governments get re-elected when they are popular, i.e. when the economy is sound and people are content. Why would a government want to fuck that all up just to get ID cards in, or some Green crap? You think they would trash the economy for a decade, and their re-election chances, for that? Calm down everyone.

    Perfectly possible that they will trash the economy in a second lockdown because they are stupid, or panicked, or pay attention to rigged or stupid opinion polls instead of using some basic common sense and having some balls. But forget the grand conspiracy theories, leave them to Piers Corbyn.

  30. Squaddies on the fucking streets? Doubts gather BiS as to how stupid stupid can be. Blojob must know that our economy is being smashed by this shit. Whereas other countries dropping the shite are doing better. He must know that enuf opposition is being lined up from his own side to see him off. That is UK generally not his Tory MP gang. ZaNu are only on board cos they want his tinpot powers for themselves. He isn’t going to survive this once the econ ruin really kicks in–7000 pub jobs going announced this morning.Paid Holiday ends next month. He was never bright but this…he cant be that dumb–it has to be a plan.

  31. Boris is like Caligula. Doing alright then gets really sick and comes back mental. He’ll give that dog of his a peerage soon.

  32. I see BoJo’s now talking about putting the Army on the streets to support the police. He tries that he won’t have an Army. I don’t suppose the Army wants to be as unpopular as the Filth are these days. Brits have always been supportive of their armed forces. That could change.

  33. m’Lud: I recently had a conversation with someone – bright, articulate, possessing a UCL degree (albeit in English) – who suggested lockdown works because the death toll has dropped.

    One needn’t be unintelligent to be stupid – indeed it can often help.

  34. NYC has a population of 8.4M people. They have effectively achieved herd immunity by killing off everyone who was vulnerable. See excess deaths here (select “NYC” from the drop-down)

    Over the course of 9 weeks that looks like 23,000 excess deaths – excess deaths have been 0 since mid-June.

    70M people in UK, so multiply that by (70/8.4) to scale up, that would be 190K excess deaths expected in the whole of the UK if we do as badly as NYC – which as a tightly packed city is pathological compared to anywhere else in the USA. A normal UK flu season kills 10K-20K, a bad one (2014-2015) about 30K. Looks like we’re at about 60K excess deaths now. I’d be shocked if we crossed 100K, and I’d expect next winter’s excess deaths to be negative because we’ve already killed off many of the vulnerable.

  35. Hopper–completely wrong. NHS own total of real C19 deaths–people with nowt else wrong with them taken to death by C19 alone–for whole UK– is 1396.

    The numbers you are quoting is Govt bullshit created by counting people who die WITH not FROM. +Ord Flu victims –most also with not from. Victims of the fucking LD itself and straightforward Govt lies.

    The UK excess deaths fig up to 6 wks or so ago was 65000–now 40000 –so unless the bastards have managed to resurrect 25000–those were lies they have been found out in. Apart from the 1396 actual UK deaths from C19 the rest are lies waiting to be fully exposed.

  36. Mr E, if I may so, your message would benefit from smoother delivery. But you are in the right.

    Perhaps more especially *because* you are in the right.

  37. Ecksy – we’re actually arguing in the same direction. Mine was a worst case argument: “even if you agree with the govt stats, the facts don’t make the argument that there’s going to be a comparable second wave.”

    I agree that actual COVID-driven deaths (as opposed to lockdown-driven deaths) are a markedly lower fraction of the 40K-60K. Not so sure they’re 95% lower though. Even if Fred Bloggs had chronic diabetes and was going to kick the bucket in 1-2 years anyway, if his passing was triggered by COVID then that’s still 1-2 years he was cheated of courtesy of the CCP and the bat-fondlers.

  38. Scottish govt already put forward proposals for a trial period of scrapping Juries, the legal profession stood up to them for a change and it was shelved.
    I suspect only for now and as things progress it will pop up again

  39. The criminal practitioning legal profession is desperate and pathetic, and, ultimately, will agree to anything in order to get the cases through the door and into court. Without which, it has no income.

    For sure, it’ll make noises about magna carta. But its practitioners are on their chinstraps.

    And, to be fair to the stupid fuckers, if it’s the difference between feeding their children and upholding, what? mist… Well, why wouldn’t they?

  40. Hang on chaps, lets think about this logically. If we are right, and the current ‘second wave’ we are being sold is a figment of the imaginations of various scientists with agendas, and the lack of intellectual heft of the current political class, then won’t that become pretty apparent within a fairly short period of time? When the cases continue to rise (or don’t, doesn’t really matter) but the number of deaths refuses to play ball?

    Unless HMG is going to be dragging people off the streets, killing them and calling their deaths due to covid, they aren’t going to be able to manufacture covid deaths in the same way they can manufacture ‘cases’ (by testing hundreds of thousands of people with a test thats got a massive false positive response). Nor are they going to be able to manufacture an excess of overall deaths from all causes above the longer term averages.

    So if deaths stay low despite all the new ‘cases’, how long will the current line hold? Not long I’d say. At some point even the compliant media will flip. The BBC never miss a chance to berate the Tories, how long will they hold fire when offered an open goal like that? It would not surprise me to see in 6-8 weeks time Boris being roasted by the usual suspects from a libertarian perspective. Not because they’ve suddenly become libertarians, but because any argument will do if it allows them to attack their enemies. They attack the Tories now for not doing enough, and they’ll happily attack them for doing too much, when it becomes obvious that the threat has gone away.

  41. Jim–That open goal has been obvious to Stumour for weeks now. But all he does is kiss Blojo’s arse and moan mildly that his (Bloj’s ) hysteria hasn’t been hysterical enough. 7000 jobs go in one morning but Stumour says he supports Blojob’s antics that same night?

    Stumour is a useless dick –but his behaviour and that of his idiots stinks of the fix being in–regardless of the likes of BiS and Rob pouring scorn on globo elite capers.

  42. Jim, I thought that with the BLM antics over the summer. I reckoned that if people saw, after two weeks, that these ostensibly mass superspreading events were, at least from a Covid perspective, largely harmless, then the case against lockdown would become unassailable.

    Didn’t happen, though.

    And in the meantime, the public has memory-holed the previous focus on deaths so as to gawp at the current focus on cases.

  43. ” I thought that with the BLM antics over the summer. I reckoned that if people saw, after two weeks, that these ostensibly mass superspreading events were, at least from a Covid perspective, largely harmless, then the case against lockdown would become unassailable.”

    The lack of cases arising from the BLM protests should have alerted people, but they weren’t being put under special measures because of them though were they? The authorities just let them happen, and pretended they never had.

    If Boris had said ‘We must lock down the country because the BLM protests will cause a massive wave of cases and we must control it’ then people would rightly have noticed that there was no wave so why am I being confined to barracks?

    People are selfish, if its not affecting them, they’re not too bothered. The difference now is everyone is being bothered and promised more bother, and that will make them look at the reason given. And if that reason isn’t responding the way its predicted to, then pressure will surely grow, and soon, not in 6 months, within a month or two, if CV deaths are still bumbling along at a few per day and the rhetoric and actions are at odds to that. Its self interest that will drive people to notice the disconnect.

  44. Ed lud- hmm jaisus. and to think if Oceania troops invaded with the aim of taking away the right to a jury trial, millions would have blissfully joined up to march in the direction of the guns.

  45. “…regardless of the likes of BiS and Rob pouring scorn on globo elite capers.”

    The reason the scorn’s poured is there’s absolutely no sign of any competence in the ‘globo elite’.
    And the idea runs contrary to logic. Your globo elite are near the end of their career paths. It takes a lot of time & effort to get to the top. Why spend more to achieve something you’re never going to personally enjoy? People are not driven by altruism. Particularly those who’ve scaled the heights of the greasy pole. They are interested in what’s good for ME. All you’re seeing is the result of the competition between all those good for Me’s. There’s no dark dastardly plans.

  46. It’s perfectly reasonable for excess deaths numbers* to reduce. It implies that most of the early deaths were people already at death’s door – they are therefore not dying in subsequent months.

    Hong Kong flu in 1968-69 created 80,000 excess deaths (the equivalent of over 100,000 for today’s UK population) – I was taking my A-levels that year and can recall nothing about it, there certainly weren’t daily death tolls being headlined in every paper and on BBC news bulletins, and we didn’t close down the economy (or anything else). But, of course, most of the ‘grown ups’ in ’68 would have been through one or two world wars – they knew what risk was really about.

  47. The thought occurs that the only other big event on the horizon is that of Brexit.
    Perhaps Boris believes that if he trashes the economy under the excuse of Covid, then any turn down (or even uplift) of the economy after we leave the EU is excused.
    Other than that I’m stumped, nothing logical explains what’s happening.

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