The estimation of how many unemployed there will be:
But even without having to extrapolate the data very much it is apparent that if most companies took Covid loans and maybe 10% think they might close then with the private sector engaging approximately 25 million people in the UK at present that might be 2.5 million jobs to go, and more given that many other companies are warning about their growth plans. My suggestion that more than 5 million people might be unemployed still looks to be depressingly realistic,
Snippa’s failing to distinguish between a stock and a flow. The stock is the total number unemployed at any one time. The flow is those moving into that state – and also the number moving out of it. It’s possible to note the occasional story about this or that company hiring people to work in warehouses for example.
So, what Snippa is doing is saying that all those made unemployed will be unemployed, all those currently unemployed will also be so and that’s that, he gets to his stock. And he’s completely ignoring the flow of people out of unemployment.
Just to give a rough idea of the size of those flows, around 10% of all jobs every year are destroyed, around 10% of all jobs every year are newly created. That’s just something an economy does.
Or, you know, 3 million new jobs every year. That flow out of unemployment will rather cut the stock of it, no?