What happened? It would be so easy to say that everything was down to Covid. But, important as that is, I don’t think that is true. Coronavirus exposed this crisis. It did not, however, make it. The fact that there are countries, from New Zealand and South Korea, to several in Southeast Asia, plus Japan, who have managed this crisis so much better than we have makes it clear that there is something much more to what we are facing than the impact of a virus.

OK, New Zealand. What was New Zealand doing then? Ah, running a budget surplus. Destroying the government created money that is so necessary to economic expansion.


source: tradingeconomics.com

So, err, to not follow Supuddanomics then.

14 thoughts on “Gosh!”

  1. Given as Sweden is now apparently wiping out millions of old folks just for money and giggles, and is no longer the Shangri-La of the Left, a place they think pursues all of their most sacred beliefs in a Progressive Utopia, is New Zealand becoming their go-to destination of their childish fantasies?

    If so they’ll simply ignore this

  2. In a few years it will be interesting to see just how well various countries managed during the pandemic. New Zealand might be doing well right now in terms of cases and deaths but a 12% decline in GDP in one quarter dies not seem like good management to me plus they have turned their country into a prison. Australia is also well on the way to returning to its natural place in the British Empire

  3. Those that have “managed this crisis so much better than we have”, have an awful shock coming, when their populations with no resistance meet the virus again with no effective vaccine.

  4. Mr Tractor,

    the most important variable to understand the Covid pandemic is all-cause mortality. The only political response I can find that correlates with that outcome is the discharge of knowingly-infected people to care homes. Countries that did that (UK, Sweden, most of the US) are the only ones that actually have a noticeable increase in all-cause mortality this year, irrespective of all the other various approaches to lockdowns, masks, schools and so on.

    Countries that did not discharge elderly unwell to care homes (Germany, Japan) have no meaningful, not even a noticeable, increase in all-cause mortality this year over expectation. The numbers by week in Germany show an increase at the height of the pandemic early in the year, but over the year as a whole, basically nothing unexpected.

    I suspect Covid almost completely shot its load in the first half of the year, took a combination of”dry tinder” (those alive because the last 2 years influenza epidemics were mild) plus some of those who might have made it to this winter, plus a handful of unfortunates from lower down the risk curve (as most bugs do). It’s now going to fade in to the background of competing risks for your proximal cause of death, and we would hear little more of it were we not testing for it specifically.

    This does put the antipodean prison camps in a bind of course. But they do know – when it comes knocking – keep it out of the care homes.

  5. I predicy that the “worst hit” countries will have reduced mortality next year amongst their old and ill folks while NZ and Oz get hit as soon as they rejoin the rest of the world. A vaccine against the common corona cold is an expensive technocrat fantasy.

  6. Ljh, totally agree. The biggest price will be economic, paid by the poorest as always, and in the long-term consequences for our civil liberties, given the astounding collective willingness to submit to authoritarian idiocracy.

  7. I saw an amusing tweet the other day, saying there hadn’t actually been a lockdown, just middle-class people hiding and working-class people delivering stuff to them. Made me laugh.

  8. I saw an amusing tweet the other day, saying there hadn’t actually been a lockdown

    The beginning of the memory holing by the media?

  9. Lockdowns cause deaths, too. There will be an increase in cancer fatalities next year – and that’s just one example.

  10. ‘This does put the antipodean prison camps in a bind of course. But they do know – when it comes knocking – keep it out of the care homes.’

    Actually we’ve already had this go through a nursing home. In Victoria of course.

    But perhaps BIG, you can pass the info about the terror to come to all the illegal immigrants. Might keep ’em out for a bit.

  11. PF, since the above, essentially negligible mortality, competing risks, will blow itself out in under a year, is what I’ve been saying since at least early April (threads passim) I claim my well-remunerated spot on SAGE.

    I do however have to apologise for my early, back of envelope prediction of global covid mortality. That number was 60 million, so I was out by a factor of 60 (so far). I cover my shame with the knowledge that it’s still vastly more accurate than “il professore”.

  12. BiG

    “60 mil”

    I remember some interesting debates back early on here, mostly “partial” versus “outright” scepticism, but I never remembered that..:)

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