August’s gain leaves monthly GDP up 37% annualized over the prior three months. In August, monthly GDP fell 8.2% annualized over the prior six months.
On a year-ago basis, GDP was down 3% on a year-ago basis, compared with declines of 4.1% and 3.3% in June and July, respectively.
That means that the bounceback has in fact already happened. Being 3% down on a year ago is a mildish recession rather than anything serious.