If only the political economist could understand a GDP report

We’re told that:

Second, the V shaped recovery that Andy Haldane of the Bank of England likes to talk about does not exist; not that I ever thought it did.

OK:

Dunno really, Looks vaguely V-ish to me but then what do I know?

Unsurprisingly the UK economy grew in August.

However, it was by only 2.1%.

Erm, that’s 2.1% in a single month. Not at an annualised rate, but in toto. Leaving aside, for a moment, everyone else’s recoveries from recent lockdown that, umm, about as fast or faster than any economy has grown, ever. Keep that rate up and we get (remember, compounding) something like 30% GDP growth in a year. Pretty cool really.

And then this:

Much of the rest resulted from the assumption that those in education were working again. Knock those two apparently virus spreading sectors out of consideration and the rest of the economy remained more than 9% below its previous crisis level.

No, the economy as a whole is still 9% below. It actually says so:

the level of output has not fully recovered from the record falls seen across March and April 2020, and is still 9.2% below the levels seen in February 2020,

Further, we shouldn’t try to dismiss the effect of education. For the reason that the UK had a larger recession than anyone else is because we’re the only people who counted the absence of education (and health care) as part of the recession in the first place.

Jeez, can’t he even read the reports that are the basis of pontifications about economics?

7 thoughts on “If only the political economist could understand a GDP report”

  1. Knock those two apparently virus spreading sectors out of consideration and the rest of the economy remained more than 9% below its previous crisis level.

    Whoah, Stop. Those two sectors were counted in the previous value, but he wants to exclude them from the latest value and still compare the two values.

    No.

  2. Rumour is that little shite Sunak is thinking on furlough extension to kick job losses down road. But another 4-6 months sounds likely to finish many businesses. How many can be mothballed that long and loads of business will have gone overseas.

    220 million borrowed in 5 months. So another paid holiday =roughly the 450-500 billion I suggested a few weeks ago by next April.

    10 million on the Dole when Furl 2 ends? Johnson seems determined to preside over UK Venezuela.

  3. New twitter BS shows Spewknack offering cash to support pubs etc during his bosses forthcoming 16 day ego-trip. And that Zombie companies/zombie workers caper talked of a fortnight ago. So it looks like he has bottled Furlough 2. There wont be that many Companies able to cover the 5/9ths salary–some maybe but not those circling the drain. And as for rest–adult YTS scheme seems to be the size of it.

  4. Prolong the lives of people who will die next year
    Trash the economy
    Can’t even be bothered to think of the third part of the slogan

  5. Murphy is still continuing to argue that we are in recession, when the figures show otherwise, and is bak to his usual insults and censorship – he clearly won’t publish my latest response, but for the record, here it is:

    “More insults when you’re shown to be wrong – not very ‘Quaker’ behaviour, I wouldn’t have thought? Neither is it very professional behaviour, but it is clear for all to see what happens on here when you are shown to be wrong on a topic.

    1) I talked of growth because the economy is growing and has grown for the last 3 months. Not sure why you’d deny this when this is an unarguable fact?

    2) the last 3 months of growth means that we are NOT in recession – that’s basic economics. Not sure why you’d choose to deny this, when this is an unarguable fact?

    3) You might think that things are going to get worse, I may or may not agree, but it irrelevant in terms of where the economy is now, which is my sole point.”

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