The Guardian view on the 2020 US elections
It’s time to dump Trump. America’s only hope is Joe Biden
Four years of deranged and unpredictable behaviour is proof that the current US president is uniquely unsuited to the job
I have to admit I just don’t know which way this is going to go. Yes, Dennis The Hot Rod Accountant Of Ohio tells us that it’s in the bag for Trump and the entirety of the international press tells us it’s Biden and we should all, of course, believe Dennis.
But I just dunno. Note that it’s the will I don’t know about, not the should.
If they elect Biden, then they ain’t seen ‘deranged and unpredictable behaviour’ yet!
But they will….
I’m with Dennis on this one. And I think Trump has played his hand masterly. The corruption thing has been stinking for months but now we get the lot.
Antifa and BLM have (unwittingly?) been his ally.
Biden is damaged goods: senile, corrupt, 47 years doing nothing. Heels-up Harris ????
It is true the Dems will vote twice, use mail-in fraud etc, have censorship on their side form MSM and big Tech and of course Trump could solve AIDS, COVID, the Debt and gun crime and still the left will hate him.
All the good (and there is a lot of it) has been swept under the carpet. But Blexit is real and growing. If the Middle East continues to ally with Israel against Iran and stamp on Hezbollah, the Palestinian question will be solved one way or another and Trump will take, quite rightly the credit to shoo in his successor.
Most of the US-ians I regularly speak are actually going to vote neither, and pray for the resurrection of either Reagan or JFK. Nixon is also popular with some if it comes to that.
Seems the current line-up for the white house on both sides is ….underwhelming, to say the least for most people.
Oh. And when you ask about the existence of the Conscience of the World called “the Guardian” … They never heard of it, nor could they give a rat’s arse about its existence after hearing it’s british… 😉
. . . the entirety of the international press tells us it’s Biden . . .
It’s partly that they’re nearly all wishful thinking lefties, but mostly that they’re just lazy bastards regurgitating what the US media has fed them.
This will be a comfortable win for Trump. Every indicator except the polls is showing this.
But I thought it was evil of foreigners to trybto influence elections.
The Guardian: “I don’t think our readers will figure out who we endorse. Better spell it out for them”
Isn’t this foreign interference in the US election?
” America’s only hope is Joe Biden”
The election is too close to call at the moment, the only certainty is that if President Trump manages to get re-elected, Democrat violence will go into overdrive. Even if, God help us, Biden gets the job, there’ll still be an enormous amount of violence directed against Trump supporters and white people in general.
” But I thought it was evil of foreigners to try to influence elections.”
True; unless it’s Saudi Arabia or Israel, in which case it’s totally cool.
It is possible a lot of Democrat core vote just won’t vote, unwilling to vote Trump, disappointed in Biden, but Republican core vote will be strong because it is for them about more than Trump.
However Presidential elections are won by the Electoral College vote not by popular majority – how Trump won last time. He just has to hold the key States he won last time. Joe Biden has repeatedly said that if he wins he will in effect put a lot of people in those States out of work with his ‘Green Deal’ agenda, so it is unlikely he will win them over.
Didn’t the Guardian predict world war and a massive recession if Trump won the first time? Well, things haven’t been good for the USA since then, but most of that is down to covid-19 and internal forces ranged against Trump, rather than the man himself. Ignore the wishful metropolitan sixth-former ninnies.
I have come to the conclusion that my understanding of US politics is virtually zero, as I just can’t see Trump doing anything but loosing badly, but entirely plausible people on here seem could convinced he will win. So I have modified my position to that of ‘ wait and see’
Trump not doing anything but losing badly was the reported situation up until the end of voting election day last time, wasn’t it?
@ Harry Haddock’s Ghost
Trump has been doing 3 sold out rallies a day in key battleground states continually. Biden isn’t even campaigning – he’s locked himself away for substantial portions of the race. When he does come out his (one per day, many days apart) rallies have nowhere near Trump’s level of attendance.
There’s a lot of enthusiasm behind Trump, none behind Biden besides “not Trump”. Trump will easily get out the vote. Biden is going to struggle. That shifts it significantly in Trump’s favour, irrespective of voting intentions.
Dennis lives in a vast multi state, free movement, single currency, single regulatory area, built by immigration. True, business is burdened with horrendous costs largely outsourced to the legal profession but a mighty country nonetheless.
So if Dennis wants more people to get shot, have the worlds worst health system, throw women who have abortions in prison, ban Muslims form entering the country, treat Covid 19 with Harpic a bright light and ignorance, sponsor protectionism, reduce the US` commitment to world peace, undermine NATO, suck up to Putin abuse immigrants and make a Great Country an international joke. Good for him.
I get Trump; makes me laugh, but he has delighted us enough Dennis
When he does come out his (one per day, many days apart) rallies have nowhere near Trump’s level of attendance.
https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1321162357796528128
Woo, yeah.
BiS – Yes, but he won by the slenderest of margins and the polls are worse for him this time around.
The mystery of the 2020 election is that Trump is getting rockstar-like crowds while Biden can’t fill a nappy (and is barely even campaigning), yet the frail looking dementia patient is purportedly miles ahead.
I don’t think the polls are “wrong” (or rigged, or whatever). They might be measuring and weighting the wrong things though:
* Turnout is a big unknown, I don’t think anyone yet has a good handle on who’s actually going to vote this time given the unusual circumstances.
* There’s likely some degree of “shy Trump” effect (people who refuse to tell strangers they’re voting for a candidate who has had more negative press than Hitler), but probably not anywhere near 12% worth
Reasons to be less cheerful:
* Enthusiasm looks good for Trump, but people only need to be enthused enough to cast a vote, the rest is gravy. A very reluctant and grudging vote for Dozy Joe is as good as a passionately joyful vote for the President
* Covid has hurt him. A large percentage of the electorate are absolutely terrified of getting a cough. There’s probably no way an incumbent centre-right Western leader can win on Covid – Nicola Sturgeon has done pretty much exactly the same (stupid) things as Boris Johnson, but one of them is sanctified by the media while the other is accused of mass murder. Democrats have destroyed their state economies and killed tens of thousands of grannies, but the media is blaming Trump.
* While trust in the MSM is at its lowest ever, millions and millions of casual voters still listen to them (while Big Tech is aggressively deplatforming counter narratives). Trump has absorbed the most vicious smear campaign in human history, with literally billions of dollars spent on portraying him as a racist, a rapist, a foreign spy, a criminal, etc. etc. every single day for 5 years.
* Trump is a Marmite character whose unconventional style hurts himself as often as it helps. There’s definitely a substantial minority of the electorate who would vote for Myra Hindley if it would own DRUMF.
So, uh, we’ll see.
If the US is unwise enough to vote in the guy whose side have been burning down their cities and accusing everbody of racism, who promises to destroy their economic future in the name of respiratory diseases and green bullshit, who’d step up their demographic replacement and probably very rapidly get the US back into the land wars in Asia business, that would be the most 2020 thing ever.
If Facepainter is against –BE FOR IT whatever it is.
A more sorry excuse for a human has never existed than Face. An archetype of the kind of ignorant, arrogant two-legged turd that blights existence on this planet.
MAGA 2020.
I suppose I most admire Trump for his honorable treatment of his allies. He’s stopped US financing of the Palestinian enemies of Israel and the Houthi enemies of the Saudis and the UAE.
He also hasn’t dragged the US into any new wars. Whereas Obama dragged the Saudis and the UAE into the Yemen mess with his stupid conference. And the Europeans into that damned mess in Libya.
But whether he’ll win or not? My instincts say yes, the media, the woke and so on all say no as they did last time.
I suppose I’ll rely on my instinct. I always did think I knew better than anyone else.
* Trump is a Marmite character whose unconventional style hurts himself as often as it helps.
Is he …I`m a bit meh about him myself. He may be marmite in the land of the politically correct, but his “locker room banter” and what not is not going to shock Europeans much. The thing is he has scaled back US commitment abroad opted out of the Paris agreement, encouraged Putin, started a trade war and shown himself an unreliable ally.
All bad, so unless you just love to perve over his wife( and I certainly do ) he is bad news.
I don’t think the polls are “wrong” (or rigged, or whatever). They might be measuring and weighting the wrong things though
It’s something I do wonder about. The footsoldiers in the polling organisations actually do the polling. It’s not as if they’re particularly well paid. So you’re sorting for reasonably well educated people will take poorly paid jobs. Reasonably educated people of rightward disposition don’t take poorly paid jobs. They’re already in well paid jobs. So your polling’s done by Democrats. Who are not exactly going to relish rubbing up against blue-collar workers in MAGA hats. Even electronically distanced.
News for you, Newmonia. Europeans don’t vote in US presidential elections. Your opinion’s irrelevant. As is that of the rest of the Vastly Superior comment on this site.
PJF
In fairness, I didn’t see a single empty circle!
Newms
“opted out of the Paris agreement” “All bad”
Right…
Trump’s wife Face? Digging in her garbage to get an old pair of knickers is as near as you will ever get–and you’d get arrested trying that. Probably not a new experience for you anyway.
It doesn’t need to be 12% worth though, does it? It just needs to be greater than the marginal difference in the battleground states that can go either way. That difference is a hell of a lot smaller than 12% and probably close to the margin of error for polling either way in a two way race.
The other factor that makes me think there are a lot more “shy Trumpers” remains the same but different than 2016. In 2016 lots of guys were shacked up (or god forbid even married) to Libtard Killary supporters and knew damn well that making anything other than strong support for Killary means the sex tap gets turned off or they get dumped. So the guys just make all the noises and then in the sanctuary of the voting booth, voted for Trump (because there was no way they were voting for a “catch you next Tuesday” feminazi like Killary.
This time around the same basic rules apply, except that a lot of guys have seen their income increase because of the Trump boom (albeit the COVID bust has been a bummer) and they don’t want to get taxed at Biden’s eye watering tax rates to pay out in welfare to the…people… on a Burning, Looting and Murder spree across the USA.
So sure, they are gonna go “Ridin’ with Biden” all the way up to the voting booth where they will vote Trump. Again. Just because the polls don’t pick up the lies don’t mean that their ain’t a lot of lying going on.
To vote for Trump all you need do first is hold your nose. To vote for hands-on Joe you’d need to stop up your ears and close your eyes. And hold your nose.
Newms – The thing is he has scaled back US commitment abroad opted out of the Paris agreement, encouraged Putin, started a trade war and shown himself an unreliable ally.
US “commitment” brought us the disasters in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia and Libya, as well as prolonging and worsening the Syrian civil war. Maybe listening to 27 year old foreign policy experts in Washington DC ain’t all it’s cracked up to be.
The Paris Agreement is a massive transfer of wealth from (currently) middle class people in Western nations to international financiers and multinational oligopolies.
It’s probably a good thing to want good relations with the president of a nuclear armed near-superpower, and if Putin was the existential threat he’s depicted as the Germans wouldn’t be giving him billions of Euros for gas (much to Trump’s annoyance). Not that Trump has done much on Russia except continue sanctions while reducing the scope for an armed confrontation with them in Syria.
You’re not smart enough to talk about trade wars, but as for “unreliable ally”, well… Bibi, Abe, Amlo and Moon Jae-In aren’t complaining. The Euros are complaining, while they simultaneously refuse to pay their way in NATO.
Tbf, NATO should’ve been wound up with champagne and medals in 1991. We won, the USSR lost. Since then it has decayed like much of the rest of our institutions (the British Army, the Church of England, the House of Lords, the Conservative Party etc) – still hanging around to no good purpose, the original mission having long been forgotten and replaced with bullshit.
“America’s only hope is Joe Biden”
Sorry, but what has Trump done that’s so bad? Shagged a porn star? Been an asshole on Twitter? Can’t do a very good speech much of the time?
What’s he done that is so bad, outside of the sort of stuff that The Guardian cares about (like treatment of illegal immigrants)? On the general stuff: is the country at war, is the economy good, the stuff that the average farty in Ohio cares about, it’s all fine, isn’t it?
Steve: one thing I would add is that Trump is the incumbent. People know him, and based on the above, I don’t think he’s perceived as doing a terrible job. There’s not many 1 term presidents. Bush sr was about Perot splitting the vote, Carter was about the crappy economy, Ford was linked to Nixon, Johnson was about Vietnam. That’s the big thing nagging at me.
I have no emotional investment either way. I doubt it’ll make a hill of beans difference to the UK. Biden will still sign trade deals, regardless of the situation in Ireland. He’s not going to fuck UK trade for a few plastic Irish in Boston. The only upside of Trump winning for me is the entertainment at the meltdown. Or if I stick a tenner on at 15/8 (which sounds like good odds).
Steve
“…..but he won by the slenderest of margins…”
306.v.232
Victory by 74 Electoral College votes doesn’t seem that slender to me. True, he didn’t win the popular vote, but the US is a federal system: states elect the president, not the people. If you remove California, he easily won the popular vote, so, unless they want California to decide the president in perpituity, they should stick with their current system.
Steve,
“It’s probably a good thing to want good relations with the president of a nuclear armed near-superpower, and if Putin was the existential threat he’s depicted as the Germans wouldn’t be giving him billions of Euros for gas (much to Trump’s annoyance). Not that Trump has done much on Russia except continue sanctions while reducing the scope for an armed confrontation with them in Syria.”
We just aren’t living in the same time as post-WW2. The Russians called it the Great Patriotic War for a good reason. They paid heavily in blood, and the reaction was to take over all the countries around them so that it would be harder to defend.
Putin isn’t ideological. He’s just a gangster, like most people running oil states. He uses violence to keep territory. Attacking the West would be suicidal. Opposition to nuclear power and fracking would disappear overnight, the price of gas (and the wealth of Putin and his pals) would collapse.
Yes, plus “Read My Lips – No New Taxes” which he knew was a lie when he said it.
Yes, plus the Iran Hostage Crisis and failure to rescue them under Carter’s watch
An understatement. Ford knew damn well that pardoning Tricky Dick would cost him the election but he did it anyway because America had to move on from Watergate, as well as the fact that the acceptance of the pardon by Nixon was an admission of culpability.
Sure, but also a personal decision and he withdrew well in advance of the actual election. It is likely that if he had decided to run he would have won a marginal victory even in the face of opposition over Vietnam.
I don’t think the polls are “wrong” (or rigged, or whatever). They might be measuring and weighting the wrong things though.
Let’s stop here and explain what political polling in the USA is designed to do and what it isn’t designed to do.
The polls that are being put out by the USA’s mainstream media are not meant to accurately show voter sentiment. National polls are meaningless, because voting is only meaningful at the state level. So why poll nationally and publish the results? Voter suppression. It’s a very old, time honored political campaign technique. You get a sympathetic news outlet to do a poll and publish it. It is understood that the polling will be done in a manner that guarantees you get the result you want. Then you trumpet it upon publication. Reason? To dampen voter enthusiasm for your opponent. When you peel back the polling done by MSM and look at the methodology, it’s very easy to spot where the pollster has made assumptions that will benefit one candidate over another.
What you are looking at – on a daily basis – is polling that is designed by the MSM to serve the purpose of the Biden campaign… That is to convey the idea that Trump cannot win, and that a vote for Trump is a waste of time and energy. Even Fox does this… not so much to harm Trump as to garner eyeballs for the news articles. Fox is read by Trump supporters, and guess which article gets read? Not the one that says everything is fine for The Donald. They one they read is the one that throws a bit of election anxiety their way. It’s a predictable as Fox having a link to a starlet in a bikini somewhere on their home page.
The problem with suppression polling is that it only works if potential voters believe in the honesty and integrity of the pollster. Right now the MSM has no credibility with the vast majority of potential voters, so I don’t see anyone staying home and not voting because of them.
When you see a poll published in a newspaper, remember that it isn’t there for the purpose of accurately conveying voter sentiment. That is not its purpose. It is a form of advertising, nothing more.
It you want to get a sense of who is doing well and who isn’t, you have to watch watch what the campaigns are doing. Ignore the polls and ignore what the MSM and party flacks are saying.
BiS
“So your polling’s done by Democrats. Who are not exactly going to relish rubbing up against blue-collar workers in MAGA hats.”
Well that would be true in normal circumstances, but in ‘The Age of Covid’, it is all being done by phone and online. Phone polling has a response rate of 6% and online is ridiculously easy to game. So the issue you highlighted is hugely magnified.
The polling that has the most accurate results is where you don’t ask people who they will vote for, but who they think their neighbours will vote for and with that methodology, Trump is winning handsomely.
Note that last night was a second night of rioting in Philadelphia. A Democrat stronghold. And the governor of Pennsylvania, also a Democrat, called the rioting (and looting) a peaceful protest.
Think that’s going to help Biden in Pennsylvania?
I don’t.
In the last two weeks Joe Biden has said he will crush Pennsylvania’s energy economy (a huge employer in the state). Meanwhile Trump has held three large rallies in the state… Biden drove to Chester, Pennsylvania on Monday and took reporters’ questions for half an hour and then went back to Delaware. Now you have rioting in the state’s largest city and the governor trying desperately to recast that rioting as peaceful protests.
Think Biden’s gonna win PA because a couple of shitty polls show him ahead?
Watch what is going on at ground level. That’s what tells the story.
“What you are looking at – on a daily basis – is polling that is designed by the MSM to serve the purpose of the Biden campaign… That is to convey the idea that Trump cannot win, and that a vote for Trump is a waste of time and energy. ”
Is there not a massive danger in this, namely the Theresa May Effect? Ie the polls say you are odds on to win massively, so your supporters don’t bother to vote , because they assume you’ll win anyway, and the on the fence voters get a free pass to vote with their hearts rather than their heads (a wavering Labour voter in 2017 might not have fancied Corbyn as PM, but fancied a Labour MP, so it was a free vote as the polls told him Corbyn would lose overall anyway).
This is especially dangerous if the real race is close. If all the rioters and woke SJW types look at the polls and see that Biden is nailed on to win, might they just stay away from the polls and do a bit more looting and Red Guard re-enacting? Then wake up to find that their laziness has cost their man the election? There’s also the fact that covid fear seems to be a Left/Right split – how many Dems will be afraid to go out into the big wide infected world and stay at hope because the polls are telling them they don’t have to?
Dennis – Sure, but the state level polls also suck bad for the good guys.
It seems a bit magical thinking to handwave away all the pollsters – it’s possible, but unlikely, they’re all dead wrong / colluding / shysters etc. It’s possible, and slightly more likely, they’re not making useful predictions based on the data at hand. But it’s also possible and not unlikely Trump is just losing.
And Coronavirus is an African American swan. It ain’t over until Stacey Abrams sings, but Republicans probably want to get their Rohirrim face on, because it’s all looking a bit Helm’s Deep for them.
BoM4 – amazing how we pissed away the opportunity to turn Russia into a somewhat reliable friend after 1991. But slightly less amazing when you realise how unprofitable this would’ve been for the Pentagon, the foreign policy establishment, and Lockheed Martin.
Recs – Victory by 74 Electoral College votes doesn’t seem that slender to me.
True, but a fair % of these EC votes were won off the back of the most anorexic of margins.
Florida (29 EC votes) – 1.2%
Michigan (16 EC votes) – 0.23%
Pennsylvania (20 EC votes) – 0.72%
Wisconsin (10 EC votes) – 0.77%
So it’s the same thing as in HoC general elections, a small swing can produce disproportionate results.
Dennis – Sure, but the state level polls also suck bad for the good guys.
1) Do you really think suppression polling only happens on a national level?
2) Do you really think local mainstream media is any less biased and dishonest than national mainstream media?
Guess what a step up is in the career of a reporter at the Columbus Dispatch… A new job at the Washington Post. You think that reporter would have a chance at landing a job at the Post by being honest and unbiased? I don’t think so.
The only polling that matters is the polling being done by the campaigns, and that data is NEVER made public. To get an idea of what the campaigns are seeing you have to watch what the campaigns are doing.
I`m not sure I entirely share your high opinion, of your own mighty intellect either Steve.
Take Libya, Qaddafi marches on Benghazi to ‘cleanse Libya “inch by inch, house by house, home by home, alleyway by alleyway.” of the ‘cockroaches’. Now in your ideal world we have an orange isolationist at the wheel who says something folksy about , breaking eggs to make an omelette undermining any International humanitarian effort and backing genocide and taking tea,I daresay with his good friend Qaddafi
Ok Libya did not turn into Surrey but the world is not perfect- it could be a lot worse .
Lets turn to the Paris agreement .Its probably the fact that you are so incredibly clever that is puzzling me but quite how developing countries ( who are fast becoming developed) benefit from the rest of the world pretending you can pump green house gases into the atmosphere without cost defeats me .
It would probably be nice if this external costs did not exist but it does. Are you suggesting that Iran Iraq and Libya are on the moral high ground and that these poor little ingenues merely wish to provide for the betterment of their population?
As for Iraq …. hmmm I do not accept the argument it failed , the world did not become a paradise but I dread to think what might have happened without a resolute America.
I may get onto Yugoslavia later if I have time but for now lets just note that you deem to have a consistent preference for either murderous dictators or an imaginary word in which only nice people live.
The best part of 60 million early votes have already been cast.
How many were from illegal immigrants, dead people, people who have moved away etc etc (see the lengths blue states go to in order to prevent their voter rolls being checked).
If just 5-10% were dodgy then that could make the difference in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and maybe even Florida. Plus look at what happened in the 2018 mid-terms, counting will continue until the right side wins. It has to be an overwhelming Trump win on the night or it’s game over.
As for Iraq …. hmmm I do not accept the argument it failed , the world did not become a paradise but I dread to think what might have happened without a resolute America.
That you consider the leadership of Bush/Cheney to be “resolute” in Iraq simply confirms the fact that you need to be tested thoroughly by a mental health professional. And sooner rather than later.
Oh, and by the way, what would have happened is that Iraq would have remained a credible threat to Iran and acted as a counterweight to its ambitions in the Middle East. That’s what would have happened. George W. Bush’s father was a dunce, but even he understood that it was best to have an Iraq that was strong enough to pose a threat to Iran.
Newms – Ok Libya did not turn into Surrey but the world is not perfect- it could be a lot worse .
😀
I spose that’s one way of describing turning a backwards-but-functioning country over to ISIS, and all the millions of refugees, slave auctions, beheadings, people being burned alive in cages, etc. that continue to ensue.
Are you suggesting that Iran Iraq and Libya are on the moral high ground and that these poor little ingenues merely wish to provide for the betterment of their population?
Narp, I’m saying Paris is a scam and unless you’re one of the few people getting rich off of it, you’re just a moron to support Indulgences 2.0 (at least we got nice buildings out of it when Popes were running the same con, at a much lower cost)
As for Iraq …. hmmm I do not accept the argument it failed , the world did not become a paradise but I dread to think what might have happened without a resolute America.
The horrifying alternative where ~1 million people didn’t die over a fantasy story about WMD.
lets just note that you deem to have a consistent preference for either murderous dictators or an imaginary word in which only nice people live.
Sure, I prefer brutal dictators to anarchy, mass murder and brutal Islamists. Whereas you seem to be one of those soft men who gets hard at the thought of brown people dying in ditches (so long as the fighting is kept far away from your skinny lattes and skinnier wrists).
Just for a second on the abdication by America of Global leadership its not as if we don’t have a crisis. Trump has also stopped funding the WHO and blocked expressions of global unity at G7 and G20 meeting. In the opinion of Steve’s hero Covid 19 was invented by the Chinese to attack US manufacturing anyway (maybe too much Harpic ?)
Yesterday we discovered that post infection immunity degrades in months. So even if you were happy to see half a million Brits dead; there is no end there. That is the end for Herd immunity and those who have defended this indefensible shit should now apologise
The vaccine news on the other hand is fantastic. Results show a much stronger immune response without side effects. There is every reason to hope the killer can be killed next year .Nonetheless a world without America is a less safe one and much harder one to a chive the coverage required.
Narp, I’m saying Paris is a scam and unless you’re
..blah blah undergraduate shit/ motheaten gag. So you are just wittering on about nothing then. Maybe withdraw that shit and get back to your “World would be better without America” theory.
Newmania
I’m not an immunoligist, but you definitely aren’t.
Immunity has been discoverd to degrade with Covid you say? No, antibodies degrade, but not all the other aspects of our immune system, including T-cells, Memory cells, etc., etc. How else do you think it is that of the c.760 million people (according to your vaunted WHO) who have been exposed to Covid-19, only 5 – FIVE – have had a verified reinfection? One in 152 million.
And if actually getting the bug doesn’t provide immunity, how on earth does any claim that any vaccine would hold water? Bullshit on the face of it, is bullshit.
Just when you think Newmy can’t type anything more stupid than he just did, he summons up an even deeper level of stupidity. I can see the appeal of a trip to Bedlam to laugh at the inmates. It’s why I keep returning to this blog to laugh at the most stupid person in our galaxy
Do you really think local mainstream media is any less biased and dishonest than national mainstream media?
I was listening to a podcast last week where the interviewee likened the current election to that of FDR. Apparently the national and local press had taken against FDR. One district had overwhelmingly voted for FDR and when the pollsters investigated it was found that the district didn’t have a local newspaper.
Now in your ideal world we have an orange isolationist at the wheel who says something folksy about , breaking eggs to make an omelette undermining any International humanitarian effort and backing genocide and taking tea,I daresay with his good friend Qaddafi
Poor Violet-Elizabeth Rochester Newmania, delusional as ever. It wasn’t just the orange man taking tea with Qaddafi, Tony Blair also enjoyed a tea party out in the desert. The orange man stood up to the North Korean moron and called his bluff on nuclear weapons. Which other world leader managed to get North Korea to the negotiating table? If the hair-sniffer wins next week then America is, for all intents and purposes, finished. This is what happens when democracy takes a back seat to lobbyists and money men. Out of 200m plus people the best two candidates are Donald Trump and a senile sniffer of little girls’ hair. Fuck me, what a place.
“Yesterday we discovered that post infection immunity degrades in months.” “And yet vaccine etc”
FFS, get a bloody grip. You are reading wilful fear/click porn and simply regurgitating it.
Recusant has beaten me to it.
All anti-bodies reduce after their initial surge, that doesn’t mean one simply loses immunity.
Recusant –
A study of 365000 people with antibodies has fallen by 26% since lockdown was eased over the summer. We also know as a fact you can be reinfected quickly. At this stage too few studied example to draw general conclusions , reinfection has been both mild and severe .It strongly suggests ( says Professor Helen Ward, one of the researchers ) that herd immunity is unachievable.”
Ok so when you get infected the first body reaction is like a bloke coming out and blasting away with a blunderbuss at an intruder . Non specific but often effective .So an infection itself can often not create long term specific defence against itself especially in those who beat it quickly.( So the young cannot protect the old by getting it )
A vaccine accentuates the “Hey look at me look who I am and make you sure you get the right weapon out “ factor ( something to do with protein walls and other stuff ) . Most importantly it mimics long term infection creating the memory cells not the come out blasting effect .
So it is well known that vaccines are certainly capable of ( and often are ) better at creating defences than the infection itself there are lots of examples .
That is exactly what the results seem to be showing .
On the question of the whether the infection itself maybe producing a weak short lived anti body effect but a stronger or normal memory cell effect. My understanding is that this is unlikely based on comparisons with other viruses acting in the same way but that’s as far as I have got
Yesterday we discovered that post infection immunity degrades in months. So even if you were happy to see half a million Brits dead; there is no end there. That is the end for Herd immunity and those who have defended this indefensible shit should now apologise
That’s right! And you know why?
BREXIT
If Britain had chosen to remain in the EU post infection immunity wouldn’t degrade in a matter of months. Because the EU would pass laws and regulations forbidding it to degrade. Or at least fining someone if it did degrade… After some written warnings and a public shaming or two.
And you know why?
BECAUSE THEY WANT US POOR AND ALONE AND DEAD
And do you know why they want that?
BECAUSE
There.
Bow to my intellectual superiority.
I don’t know whether Trump will win or not. Certainly there are a lot of quiet or secret Trump voters. However, if Biden wins and the Republicans hold the Senate then a lot of stuff will continue as before. Biden can issue executive orders, but he can’t raise taxes on his own. If Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate, then they will assuredly try to impose the blue state model, which states have been losing population to red states for decades, on the country as a whole. It is ironic that while the red states are generally ok with letting the blue states damage themselves to their heart’s content, it’s the blue states who are adament about changing the red states.
Something tells me that in addition to most polls the stock market this week is also anticipating a Biden win.
If Biden wins, Taiwan is history. Moves played already, upon expectation, so here’s hoping CCP’s another poll-believer scuppered!
“As for Iraq …. hmmm I do not accept the argument it failed , the world did not become a paradise but I dread to think what might have happened without a resolute America.”
Iraq will be right back where it started in a few years. Corruption is endemic in the country now. People are protesting on the streets. Give it a few years and some new dictator type will emerge, you’ll have a coup/civil war, and get a new Saddam Hussein.
You can’t impose democracy. We tried it with all those countries that left the empire and they became dictatorships quite quickly. Democracy is mostly linked with industrialisation – as the balance shifts from land to people producing wealth, incentives change.
Iraq is all about the oil. OK, 1% of it isn’t but the other 99% of the exports are. That’s why people are always fighting in these places OR electrocuting each others bollocks. You get rich by taking the land. That’s all ISIS are about. It’s not a crusade, it’s grabbing turf, getting paid.
Why are Egypt and Lebanon a lot more liberal? Because they have some industry, some tourism, and not much oil.
Out of 200m plus people the best two candidates are Donald Trump and a senile sniffer of little girls’ hair. Fuck me, what a place
Well, there’s always Kanye West…
I’m sure there are better candidates, if you could find them, but the current selection process doesn’t do that. In any case, as Presidents go, Trump is by no means the worst, in fact he’s done well considering the concerted opposition he has had.
One of the features of a well-functioning democracy is that the losers largely accept the result, as they know it will be their turn eventually. That hasn’t happened in the US in the last 4 years.
“Out of 200m plus people the best two candidates are Donald Trump and a senile sniffer of little girls’ hair. Fuck me, what a place”
Bascically, it’s the dregs of society that seek public office. Hence you vote for whomever you think will harm you least.
Local poll next to my golf course opened yesterday. Surprise to me. Parking was hard to find before 0800. Finishing up at noon, parking was still tight. Looking over at the poll there was a long line. Good grief!
I take all this to mean that turnout is going to be yuge.
Gamecock will be voting on the first Tuesday of November, as the Constitution directs.
It’s not just Dennis (pbuh):
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/522957-dont-believe-the-polls-trump-is-winning-bigly
For those not familiar, The Hill is described by no less an authority than WikiP as “generally read by a moderate audience, leaning slightly towards the right”.
“True; unless it’s Saudi Arabia or Israel, in which case it’s totally cool.”
And who reckons that coming Israeli diplomatic relations coup will be announced shortly before the main poll opens?
“If Biden wins, Taiwan is history. Moves played already, upon expectation, so here’s hoping CCP’s another poll-believer scuppered!”
Yes
“Covibollocks”
The one thing that tips me towards belief in the great reset/etc theories is the immense global gaslighting effort against undergraduate textbook stuff that is drummed into every year 1 medical student backwards, sideways, and inside out. Supposedly serious immunologists saying that covid is special, unique, there is no prior immunity, and there will be no acquired immunity, just wiping out almost 200 years of knowledge of infectious disease.
It’s as if the cultural marxists have taken over not only the humanities but medical science as well.
Newmania
“but that’s as far as I have got”
Then perhaps try this (Professor Sunetra Gupta):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZKXce5e4Xg
A key part is the explanation of immunity (at several different points through this).
Newms, Prof. Gupta has not forgotten her first year “introduction to the basic fundamentals of elementary immunology and epidemiology”. 101.
Those that believe that covid-19 is something different are those that bear the burden of proof.
@Dennis, Channeling Newmania
You owe me a new laptop.
I just spat my coffee over this one, laughing.
😀
And this expands on some of those comments:
https://hectordrummond.com/2020/10/28/thomas-galen-what-herd-immunity-looks-like/
Tom Welsh in the comments makes the points that recorded deaths (and hence assumed infections) may be higher than reality but which doesn’t take away from the broader issue.
More evidence I’m right:
The Biden campaign has announced Biden and Obama will hold a rally in Michigan on Saturday.
The polls show Biden up 9 points in Michigan.
You don’t rally in Michigan on the last Saturday before the election (with your most important surrogate) if your internal polling is telling you you’re 9 points ahead.
You rally in Michigan the Saturday before the election because your internals are telling you you’re losing.
I believe Trump will win and that Demorat vote rigging is the only danger. The people of the USA simply are not fuck-stupid enough to vote for a party of marxist rioting and tyranny.
Dennis, channeling Newmania
Absolute genius even by your high standards! Love the idea that we can look at the EU and see it’s brilliance in managing the pandemic. Indeed the Euro, and with it the EU look to be toast post lockdown #2 (although they continue to defy those types of predictions by their expertise in can kicking)
Interestingly the Great Steve gave me the abiding image of the last election with his comparison between Trump and Hilary, the latter represented by the Kathy Bates character in ‘Misery’ while the former was the character of Al Czervik (brilliantly portrayed by the great Rodney Dangerfield) in the film ‘Caddyshack’. If he’s concerned about Trump’s prospects then we should all be. 12% is a big margin and there is no doubt that the Coronavirus crisis has hurt him. On the other hand I am hearing reports due to certain social factors he’s polling at around 45% of the Hispanic vote and over 30% with Black men over 40. If those are correct the Democrats are surely utterly destroyed? I applaud the comments from the numerous legendary posters here, but there’s always a nagging doubt- let’s hope our concerns are not warranted. A future with Harris/ Biden and a permanently ‘woke’ US looks bleak indeed.,.,
@ Newmania
There is NO, repeat NO evidence that you can be reinfected by the same virus. The (?two) people reinfected were by mutations, like with normal ‘flu.
Don’t talk soft.
PF – Guptra is grovelling her way towards the rewards that come form giving the State cover. She has been filleted on live TV by her peers and even I can see how shallow her defence is.
In this interview she answers a question no-one is asking.
@john77
Actually the SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate like “normal flu”. Influenza viruses have a tremendous ability to “mix and match”. The combined effects of relatively rapid antigenic drift plus occasional antigenic shifts from reassortment mean we face a bewildering variety of flu virus subtypes which are not only constantly changing but have the occasional big mutation every couple of decades or so that catches many of our immune systems largely by surprise (often with some protection in the elderly if a similar-enough type used to be in circulation in the past).
Coronaviruses generally mutate relatively far slower in comparison, I believe. And there’s no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 so far diverging into several strains sufficiently distinct as to play silly buggers with our immune responses – remember that unlike flu, it can’t play “mix and match” with its major structural elements in the same kind of way.
I wonder if you’re being misled by having read that scientists used genetic sequencing to tell that it really was two separate infection events rather than one that went quiet then kicked off again? Little mutations happen all the time – inevitably in something whose genetic code is being reproduced like the clappers. The scientists were satisfied that the genetic distance between the two infections was too far to represent changes that occurred over the course of a single infection (the viruses you start and end with aren’t actually quite the same, but they shouldn’t be all that different) so it must have represented reinfection from another source. But that’s not saying they were such structurally different viruses that the immune system couldn’t recognise the second one (which is why you can catch two different strains of flu). If you were being fooled by these small genetic changes you’d essentially have no immune memory at all. These tell-tale mutations from around the world can be arranged into a “tree of life” and mapped based on where samples were taken, which is how we know the UK got the vast majority of its early Covid cases from Europe, especially Italy. For the last few years, not talking about Covid here, some hospitals have been using genetic sequencing to track hospital-acquired infections – if you have an outbreak in one ward, and a fortnight later the same species of nasty turns up in another ward, the size of the genetic changes can inform them whether they’re dealing with a common source or two independent incidents. And this can be done for genetic changes so small they’re irrelevant to the immune response.
Professional biologists please feel free to correct the above, but the flu analogy isn’t great for Covid (fortunately – we could do without being immune only to certain strains of it but vulnerable to others, and it would make both vaccination and herd immunity far harder to achieve!).
FS
How – in any parallel universe – is she giving the state cover? Did you listen to a single word?
You know what, others are 100% right on here. However intelligent you undoubtedly are at times, absolutely no point in trying to engage, it’s simply dishonest.
Useless fucks on SCOTUS confirm North Carolina Demorats have 9 days to get their bogus vote boxes in after the election. All that trouble to get “conservatives” Judges appointed and they are still shite.
So where does this leave Demorats chances?
@MBE The only correction I would make is “Comparison to Influenza is useless” instead of your more politically correct “isn’t great”. The rest is pretty much spot on.
BiS: “It’s as if the cultural marxists have taken over not only the humanities but medical science as well.”
The cultural marxists control the funding… Funders extremely dislike contrary opinions…
A + B =….
The only thing you can be absolutely certain of, is that if Biden does win, it will be by an extremely narrow margin.
Everything from the crowd sizes, to the enthusiasm gap, to the decrease in Democratic Party membership, to the increase in minority membership in the Republican Party, to the improved economy, to the obvious desperation and bias of the media, to the bad PR from the riots (in people’s backyards at this point)…
There are just so many tried and true deciding factors that point to Trump being more popular than he was in 2016. I think it’s just a matter of voter turnout at this point.
What about Demorat bogus aftervote ballots?
Not familiar with US election law, presumably it varies by state
Are absentee ballots dated or just merged with those cast on the appointed day
And just how long after the election are they accepted? After all, voters have had four years to get prepared….
I can accept delays for those abroad ( but they could have voted early) but it seems to me that there is plenty of potential for enough votes to be ‘discovered’ after the main count to swing a close result
Are there any checks? One would expect proportions to be similar to the main vote if they are random late ballots so it shouldn’t affect it
Or am I hopelessly naive?
NC has 9 days after voting day to rig up boxes of bogus votes that will just push Biden over the line. Thanks to the SCOTUS.
Every single vote needs to be checked if it takes 10 years. Trump should announce he has won on the day –which he will and until every vote is checked he is President. Promise a 20 year Federal sentence to campaign workers for EVERY bogus vote. A 2 day amnesty period to withdraw bogus votes without penalty.
That should do it.
Ecks
Do you think It’ll be close enough for NC to be the Equivalent of Florida in 2000?
Trump will win handsomely–my concern is the cheating.
Dunno what you’re worried about, Mr Ecks:
https://twitter.com/Project_Veritas/status/1321566177097846785
BiG
In March I was saddened to see so many friends and acquaintances succumbing to the Great Panic but I thought, it will pass. After a couple of weeks people will come to their senses, ignore the lockdown and the government will be glad to call it off and claim victory, before it become embarrassing. Well, it hasn’t turned out like that, but I still incline —just— to a neo-Occamist view: ‘do not attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence’.
But now BiG writes “The one thing that tips me towards belief in the great reset” and I am not sure whether to be now saddened that a respected commentator is inclined to an explanation of malice aforethought or wonder if I should do the same.
Hanlon. Not Occam.
Strange that there was never a birtherism movement for Ted Cruz, but there is for Kamala Harris……it’s almost as if Kamala Harris and Barack Obama have something in common.