But, as I have already noted, the assumptions that underpin this are that business and consumers spend, spend, spend from 2022 onwards and there is simply no evidence based on past economic recoveries, where caution persists for a long time after recovery begins, to suggest that this is likely.
His already noted part is a piece which looks at post-2008. That is, not past economic recoveries but the last economic recovery. Which is a pretty thin evidence base really, one time in one place.
Actual economists who opine on such things have pointed out – in fact good ones, like Krugman, were pointing this out in 2008 – that recessions following a Kaboom in the financial system – or accompanied by, or which cause, your taste there – take a long time to recover from. Recessions so unaccompanied do not.
He’s fighting the last war and only the last war, rather than looking at what economics and economist actually have to say. But then this is Snippa, isn’t it?