Place your bets now

What began as a simple blog post has turned into a major project, in which all the UK’s major public sector economic reporting agencies have now played a part. There will, I promise, be results in due course: I am now working on a paper, although don’t expect brevity or a light read, as those who have commented to date have complained. I do, however, think that the work, and the wait, will be worthwhile. The one thing I think I can safely predict is that the national debt is definitely not what it claims to be.

What’s the over and under on him getting this wrong? For example, by not including public sector pensions liabilities? Or N Sea oil rigs liabilities (government has had the tax revenue already but they have to give it back when the companies claim the expense of cleaning up old rigs) and so on and on?

7 thoughts on “Place your bets now”

  1. I’ll bet it will be even simpler. They will provide him with evidence and method of what they do and how the prepare the data.

    Then he will simply ignore it and quote them out of context. And just claim he is right.

  2. Does he think people are breathlessly awaiting his paper? Or that it will stir up discussion outside of his blog? Is there no end to his self-regard?

    These are questions the answers to which nobody cares about.

  3. Meanwhile… I find many of these issues difficult

    I was told I was a bully today for telling someone that an email was wrong

    It was wrong, factually

    But apparently that cannot be said

    I find that as difficult as the stated divisions. That is passive aggressive bullying, in my opinion

    Let’s pray that PEF said “Your time here is done.”

  4. ‘The one thing I think I can safely predict is that the national debt is definitely not what it claims to be.’

    On this I think he’s actually spot on the money (rarely) although not, I suspect for the reasons he anticipates. However, more important is future liabilities (i.e how much debt we’re taking on now) – Public Sector Pension Liabilities (primarily for people supporting the Corbynites, Greens and the SNP/ Plaid) are into the hundreds of billions. A rise in interest rates will skyrocket the value of Public sector Gilts. That, rather than the Current Debt is the real concern.

  5. I’ll have a punt. What about if you say the supposed thing people are worried about is debt/gdp ratio. And people/markets/newlibs don’t like approaching 100% and over 100% is like garlic to vampires. Along comes archangel richard to say something like: if the debt is made for repayment 25years hence, you shouldn’t count todays GDP – you should count the 25 years hence one. Sex that statement up a bit with self referential authority =so it becomes todays GDP is meaningless compared against 25 year debt. Bingo you can breach whatever limit you want. Because you proved it.

  6. This hinges on the definition of “National Debt” – and since Murphy is the reincarnation of Humpty Dumpty, making words mean whatever he wants them to mean, he is sure that he is right – oh sorry that should be “left” because anyone “right” deserves the Lubianka in the view of the PC.

  7. Does anyone recall his humiliation over GERS? Of course, he was the only person in the room who understood GERS. As part of his calculations, didn’t he want to include sales by English companies in Scotland as Scottish revenue and also incomes of Scottish people residing outside Scotland? It’s time to bulk buy peanuts

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