This is interestingNovember 4, 2020 Tim WorstallPolitics25 Comments previousModern fairy talesnextOne bit jars here 25 thoughts on “This is interesting” Mal Reynolds November 4, 2020 at 11:38 am I think Trump has it. Of all the states yet to call, all the biggest ones are leaning Trump and mostly comfortably. Andrew C November 4, 2020 at 11:49 am ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES Wis – 10 Geo – 16 NC – 15 Mich – 16 Nev – 6 Penn – 20 Ala – 3 Is there any reason why there would be a dramatic shift once most votes are counted? Anyone know? If, say, 80% of votes are counted, any reason to think the remaining 20% won’t be broadly similar? If not, it ought to be Trump. Hallowed Be November 4, 2020 at 11:49 am Where does it come from? What timestamp? Tim Worstall November 4, 2020 at 11:54 am Guardian. Don;t know time stamp. Steven Crook November 4, 2020 at 11:56 am https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-uncounted-votes-president.html Bongo November 4, 2020 at 12:19 pm No Green Party candidate in Penn or Wisconsin, I notice. Presumably the motivation from the Dems to raise the technical objection which stopped them being on the ballot was they take votes from them more than the other guy. But it’s been through the courts and it’s legally correct that they weren’t included. Apparently. Hallowed Be November 4, 2020 at 12:20 pm hmm- In PA the current margin of 675,012 lines up with Real clear politics tables which AFIK are current. But the % counted figure RCP give is 75.2% versus 64%, odd.. maybe different figures for postal votes received, or possibly a Grauniad exclusive figure. starfish November 4, 2020 at 12:26 pm @Andrew c One would expect the proportions to be broadly constant unless there is something unbusual about those left What proportion are postal votes or does the system not differentiate between them? Bob November 4, 2020 at 12:40 pm Might the outstanding vs counted relate to districts that have declared or have yet to, rather than uniformly state-wide? If so then presumably, yes, it’s quite possible for remaining to skew differently Richard Gadsden November 4, 2020 at 12:51 pm Outstanding votes in Michigan are mostly postal votes in Detroit. About half the outstanding votes in Pennsylvania are the postal votes from Philadelphia. Both of those are very very Democratic. Georgia is still missing a bunch of votes (mixed postal/on the day) from Atlanta because a burst water pipe delayed counting. All three of those we can reasonably expect to close significantly. Nevada is missing most of the postal votes, mainly in Clark County (Las Vegas and surrounding area) – again, that’s going to be pro-Biden. Alaska has got in most of the Democratic vote from Juneau and Anchorage; what’s left is the rural white vote (mostly Republican) and the Native vote (mostly Democratic). It probably favours Trump, but it might be even. Certainly not pro-Biden, though. New York Times and Fox News both have maps showing county-by-county how much of the vote is left, which is where this is from. Hallowed Be November 4, 2020 at 1:36 pm Bob- looks like 21/67 counties completed in PA so don’t think it’s that… dunno but as per Richard G – fox says 64% too so not a G made up figure. just incidentally looking at the PA counties i noticed Bucks County and Berks county. OK drop the shire go with the abreviated form, i like that too, then I see Bedford county…mildly annoying. Andy ex-Taiwan November 4, 2020 at 1:41 pm My gut feeling is Trump will win Georgia, NC, and Alaska, but Biden will be dragged over the line by some combination of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Hope I’m wrong… Sam Jones November 4, 2020 at 1:47 pm CNN are saying most of the votes to be counted in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia are in the big urban areas which are heavily Democratic. Biden probably only needs one of those three to become President. Although with a Republican controlled senate he will be a lame duck. starfish November 4, 2020 at 2:11 pm @Sam Although with a Republican controlled senate he will be a lame duck. Yes, curious how none of the pundits seem to be mentioning this John November 4, 2020 at 2:44 pm Starfish A notionally Republican senate as long as the likes of Collins, Murkowski and Romney fall into line. Mind you Romney, like McCain (whose widow contributed greatly to Arizona flipping) seems to be solely motivated by his hatred of Trump. Anyway unless I’m mistaken a 50:50 Senate is still not out of the question which means Kamala casting any deciding votes. Bloke in Germany November 4, 2020 at 2:54 pm “OK drop the shire go with the abreviated form, i like that too, then I see Bedford county…mildly annoying.” North Wales is in Pennsylvania and it’s not even a county. And PA has a Delaware county. Confusingly right next to the state of Delaware. York county is east of Lancaster county. One wonders which way they voted in Clinton county. All in all it is a rather odd state. The Pedant-General November 4, 2020 at 3:25 pm Based on that table and just taking the 4 states where trump currently has a lead, Biden needs the votes remaining to be counted to be a _minimum_ of 61:39 in his favour- GA Biden needs 67:33. that has to be unlikely and these 4 states (PA, GA, MI, NC) are 67 EC votes – that gives the Donald 280 and he’s done. Hallowed Be November 4, 2020 at 5:04 pm BiG- All in all it is a rather odd state. – yeah my one factoid was founded by Penn an english squire. Penn’s wood fnarr fnarr the latin scholars would joke. TPG_ in Pa only philadelphia county is currently over the 61% fig needed albeit on 77.6%, with 86% complete. john77 November 4, 2020 at 5:09 pm @ Pendant-General But – some congressional districts split more than 3:1 to one side or the other. If you go down the page and look at individual State profiles you find that – e.g. the largest number of uncounted votes in Michigan are districts 6 (GOP) and 13 (Dem) and grossing both of those up adds a net 20k votes to Biden’s lead; likewise Nevada’s heavily Dem district one has only reported 65% of votes and raising that to 100% will add 20k (again) to Biden’s lead; PA’s overwhelmingly Dem District 3 is only 55% counted so at 100% that would knock 150k off the Trump lead, District 2 is 62% so another 45k and District 18 67% and another 40k so the Trump’s lead in PA is nowhere near as safe as it looks and late postal ballots can arrive for days. Georgia should be OK, the largest slice of uncounted votes are in the heavily Dem District 5 but the full should should only knock 70k off Trump’s lead. NC the most votes still to count are in District 13 where the Republican has two-thirds of the vote and District 12 where the Dem is unopposed so I can’t make a guess on that. All of the above does not adjust for the greater tendency for Democrat supporters to vote by post – or, to rephrase it, Trump discouraging his supporters from mail-in ballots and telling them to vote in person so the late-counted mail-in votes should be overwhelmingly for Biden. It is quite possible that Arizona will decide the election and Trump’s loss will be down to his disgraceful insults to s dying man, continued even after his death. Fortunately he hasn’t dragged down all the Republican Senators with him. The Pedant-General November 4, 2020 at 5:27 pm John77, I will take as a – possibly unintended? – compliment that you have elevated me from a mere Pedant- to the infinitely more esteemed Pendant-General. 🙂 I still cannot fathom how the US seems unable to run a broad system of local polling stations in the way that we do. Or that they seem unable to count stuff in a timely manner. Or that the rural counties seem able to count faster than the cities – this is the complete opposite to the UK. Whilst it is true that postal votes will likely swing Dem, there are instances of near 100% Dem tallies – i.e. a state updates its counts and appears to add 10s or 100s of 1000s of votes to Biden with nothing to Trump. The numbers just seem absurd. jgh November 4, 2020 at 5:40 pm Conspiracy alert! MyBurningEars November 4, 2020 at 5:49 pm @The PG I’ve said this on some other threads too but if you’re a Brit looking in on US elections it helps if you park any preconceptions based on how we do things. If the nuances are beyond you, it’s usually better to look at state-by-state betting odds to work out what’s happening than the headline vote counts so far. States can be very heterogenous and the location and type of the votes not yet counted is critical to determining whether any current lead is real or illusory. Forums for punters are also worth checking as they’ll be discussing these details constantly in relation to the odds being too short/long. Without that knowledge you can be watching giant Trump leads growing in Virginia thinking he’s going to snatch a surprise victory, without realising the last places to report are the DC suburbs and he hasn’t got any realistic chance. Personally, following the US election is much more fun “live” if in the company of people who know what they’re talking about, and rubbish in the company of the ignorant (including sadly the UK media) and people who just want to discuss what it “means” and how it “feels”. MyBurningEars November 4, 2020 at 5:52 pm @jgh Can’t work out if you’re trolling, but see https://www.timworstall.com/2020/11/democracy-is-our-highest-value-right/#comment-1040101 jgh November 4, 2020 at 8:32 pm MBE: That’s the thread after this one, so I hadn’t got that far. 😉 MyBurningEars November 4, 2020 at 11:00 pm @Richard Gadsden Nice to see you posting again. Especially performing informative service but have always enjoyed it when you’ve butted in with an opinion too. Hope to see you below the line more often… Leave a Reply Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Comment Name * Email * Website Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.