Fascinating

The need to maintain economic discipline in a changed environment, and to tackle rising inequality will, in any case, demand this.

OK, so inequality will be rising, will it?

First, Covid, plus Brexit will mean very limited, if any economic recovery in the year. The OBR suggested that growth might be 5% or so assuming no Covid second wave. That now looks to be fanciful. Presuming we are in lockdown for several months from mid January onwards, as Covid deaths exceed 1,000 a day, the likelihood of any recovery is remote. Brexit simply adds to the likelihood.

The recession will continue, perhaps get worse.

Believing both is fascinating. Because inequality falls in recessions. The richer among us gain more of their incomes from profit than the poorer. Profits fall faster and further than any other component of national income in a recession.

This is why inequality is today – by the Gini, 90/10, 80/20 and so on measures – is lower than it was in 2008.

But then this is the man with three economic professorships declaiming on the subject of economics.

14 thoughts on “Fascinating”

  1. Dennis, Tiresome Denizen of Central Ohio

    The need to maintain economic discipline…

    As fascist a phrase as ever there was.

  2. He is also a medical expert

    I did the Jeremy Vine in London on 12 March, foretelling that Rishi Sunak had massively misread the crisis to come, and within days was in bed with what was undoubtedly COVID. It got scary when it went to my chest, and then I was one of the lucky ones, and got better. It wiped me out for a month though, and has left me with what seems to be a long COVID condition. About every three weeks I have a day of migraine style headache, which is not fun.

    If he was truly suffering, it is not obvious. The tide of odious and risible nonsense continued unabated while he was battling this disease. In March he posted 121 times, in April 162. In the following 3 months, he posted over 140 times in each month before even the Sewer of Ely ran dry and he was reduced to merely posting 3 times a day for the next few months. If he is ill, it is hard to distinguish it from when he is well. Sone things are constant: he is an obnoxious fool, a liar and a charlatan in whatever state of health

  3. Might I suggest a new category for you: Antagonising Adonis. In his comparison of the Brexit trade deal with Chamberlain’s Pact with Hitler, is he really comparing the EU to Hitler and therefore suggesting that he wants to link up with a Nazi organisation?

  4. Bloke in North Dorset

    Presuming we are in lockdown for several months from mid January onwards, as Covid deaths exceed 1,000 a day,

    He’s having an off day, another testable forecast that I’ve no doubt will prove to be just as wrong as other testable forecasts.

  5. BiND, that’s a stupid forecast. Even up to June, there were only 9 days when daily deaths were over 1000. His prediction scorecard is even more risible than his other contributions.

  6. However, I see that the Tuberous Twat predicts flooding in 2021. Given that he lives in Ely, he might be right. In fact, it might be flooded at the moment . Not exactly a case of great predictive ability

  7. When the tuber got Covid-19 R was >1, so on the balance of probabilities he is a covid spreader. Not a great thing to be in the age groups he mingles with.

  8. If he recovered he wasn’t lucky, he was normal. With 99%+ surviving it’s people dying who are unlucky, not people surviving who are lucky. It’s not luck when you predict a horse that is going to lose the National.

  9. Perhaps not definition, but a good example of the “but we always used to burn witches and times were good back then” belief system…

  10. Bloke in North Dorset

    However, I see that the Tuberous Twat predicts flooding in 2021. Given that he lives in Ely, he might be right. In fact, it might be flooded at the moment . Not exactly a case of great predictive ability

    Has there been a winter in recorded history when it hasn’t flooded somewhere?

    I predict it will get light in the morning and dark at night. If it doesn’t rain it will be dry and if the wind doesn’t blow it will be still.

    I’ll report back at the end of the year and let you know how successful I’ve been.

    In the meantime, HNY to one and all.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *